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The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse how different exchange rate regimes affect the links between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Using the Pedroni method for panel cointegration, mean group and pooled mean group and the panel vector autoregressive technique, this study empirically investigates whether monetary fundamentals impact exchange rates similarly in both regimes. Thus, the author acquires needed and credible empirical data.

The result suggests that the impact is dissimilar. In the floating regime, an increase in relative money supply and relative real output depreciates and appreciates the nominal exchange rate in the long run whereas in the non-floating regime, the evidence is mixed. Thus, exchange rates bear a theoretically consistent relationship with monetary fundamentals across SSA countries with floating regimes but fails under non-floating regimes. This provides evidence that regime choice is important if the relationship between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in SSA are to be theoretically consistent.

This study empirically incorporates the dissimilarities in exchange rate regimes in a panel framework and study the links between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. The focus on how exchange rate regimes might alter the equilibrium relationships between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in SSA is a pioneering experiment.

Exchange rate regime decisively impacts key policy objectives such as financial stability, inflation control, etc. The purpose of this paper is to overview the evolution of exchange rate regimes spanning 12 nations in the Latin American region over the last two decades and estimate the degrees of influence of other major currencies on each nation.

Using the methodology developed by Frankel and Wei, the de facto extent of exchange rate flexibility is discerned for these nations and put into perspective with that of the IMF exchange rate regime classifications.

An increase in flexibility is found from the 1990s to the 2000s, especially for inflation targeting nations. However, the results reveal these nations adopt a policy of “guarded caution” and follow more of a de facto managed floating regime that is far from pure floats. The smaller economies of the region still pursue more fixed regimes. While the results correlate, to an extent, with the IMF's classifications, several areas of discrepancy are noted. The findings are robust to several sensitivity analyses.

A discrepancy between the IMF regime categorization and the true regime a country actually follows may cause IMF financial assistance programs to be less effective. Do countries follow regimes they are classified into? The present study gleans deeper into the issue and discerns this. The comparative analysis includes the relatively larger economies of the region as well as the seldom researched smaller ones.

The purpose of the present study is to directly examine the relationship between bilateral exchange rate and stock market index in a bivariate framework during the period of the floating exchange rate regime in Thailand.

The monthly data used in this study are the stock market index or stock prices from the Stock Exchange of Thailand, and the nominal bilateral exchange rate in terms of baht per US dollar from the Bank of Thailand. The period covers July 1997 to June 2010 with 156 observations. This is the period that the country switched from fixed to floating exchange rate regime. The stock market return is calculated by the percentage change of stock market index (or stock prices) while the exchange rate return is the percentage change of the nominal bilateral exchange rate. Three estimation methods are used to capture the interaction between stock and foreign exchange markets: bounds testing for cointegration, non‐causality test, and the two‐step approach with a bivariate GARCH model and Granger causality test.

The results of the present study show that bounds testing for cointegration does not detect the long‐run relationship between stock prices and exchange rate. In addition, the non‐causality test fails the diagnostic test for multivariate normality in the residuals of the estimated VAR model. However, the two‐step approach adequately detects the linkages between the stock and foreign exchange markets. It is found that there exists positive unidirectional causality running from stock market return to exchange rate return. The exchange rate risk causes stock return to fall as expected. Moreover, there are bidirectional causal relations between stock market risk and exchange rate risk, but in different directions.

Since a rising trend in the risk in the foreign exchange market causes stock return to fall, both domestic and foreign investors should be aware of the risk or uncertainty in the foreign exchange market because it can cause their portfolio return to fall. For policymakers, reducing exchange rate risk cannot be done without the associated costs from a rising risk in the stock market.

This study provides an evidence of volatility (or risk) spillovers in stock and foreign exchange markets. In addition, the risk in foreign exchange market that adversely affects return in the stock market is an expected phenomenon under the floating exchange rate regime.

This paper aims to investigate asymmetric long-run effects of bilateral exchange rate on US trade imbalances with China and to examine if the effects are the same under China’s fixed and managed floating exchange rate systems.

The authors estimate both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model assuming symmetric effect and nonlinear ARDL model assuming asymmetric effect of exchange rate on US trade deficit with China. The authors use data from 1994Q1 to 2005Q2 (under Chinese fixed exchange rate system), from 2005Q3 to 2021Q3 (under Chinese managed floating exchange rate regime), and from 1994Q1 to 2021Q3 (overall data).

The Chow test indicates 2005Q3 is a structure break point. Further, the results suggest the effects of bilateral exchange rate on US trade deficit with China are not the same under different exchange rate systems. The asymmetric long-run effect of bilateral exchange rate does exist. The results also demonstrate the depreciation of Chinese currency will not significantly affect US trade imbalances with China.

Based on the results, the Chinese Government should embrace a more transparent and flexible exchange rate system. It will not significantly hurt Chinese trade balance, but it will help to reduce the tension between the USA and China.

All previous literature (except two papers) related to the effect of Chinese exchange rate on US trade deficit with China assume the effect is symmetric, and all (except one) use data under different Chinese exchange rate systems. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that studies the possible asymmetric long-run effect of bilateral exchange rate under different Chinese exchange rate regimes.

This study focuses on Egypt’s recent experience with exchange rate policies, examining the existence of spillover effects of exchange rate variations on stock prices across two different de facto regimes and whether these effects, if any, are asymmetric.

The empirical analysis is carried out using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag modeling framework, which permits testing for the presence of short- and long-run asymmetries. Relevant local and global factors are also included in the analysis as control variables. The authors divide the entire sample into a soft peg period and a free float one.

Over the soft peg regime period, both positive and negative changes in EGP/USD exchange rates seem to have a significant impact on stock returns, whether in the short or long run. Short-term asymmetric effects vanish in the free float period, while long-term asymmetries continue to exist. By and large, the authors find that currency depreciation tends to exercise a stronger influence on stock returns than does currency appreciation.

The results offer important insights for investors, regulators and policymakers. With the domestic currency depreciation having a negative impact on stock prices, investors should contemplate implementing appropriate currency hedging strategies to abate depreciation risks and, hence, preserve their expected rate of return on the Egyptian pound-denominated investments. In the current post-flotation era, the government could pursue a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy framework, with a view to both lowering the soaring inflation toward an announced target rate and stabilizing economic growth. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could adopt indirect monetary policy instruments to secure tightened liquidity conditions. Besides, the CBE could raise policy rates to incentivize people to keep their money in local currency-denominated instruments, instead of dollarizing their savings, thereby relieving banks of foreign currency demand pressures. Nevertheless, while being beneficial to the country’s real economy on several aspects, such contractionary monetary measures may temporarily impinge on stock market performance. Accordingly, policymakers should consider precautionary measures that reduce the potential for price distortions and unnecessary volatility in the stock market.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study represents the first attempt to explore the potential impact of exchange rate changes under different regimes on Egypt’s stock market, thus contributing to the relevant research in this area.

By reinforcing monetary policy independence, reducing international financing pressures and avoiding high-risk takings, capital controls strengthen the stability of the financial system and then reduce the volatility of capital inflows. The objective of this study was to conduct an empirical examination of this hypothesis. This topic has received strong support in the theoretical literature; however, empirical work has been quite limited, with few empirical studies that provide direct empirical support to this hypothesis.

This study analyzed quarterly data of 32 emerging economies over the period between 2000 and 2015 and proposes two methods to identify capital control actions. Using panel analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lag and local projections approaches.

This study found that tighter capital controls may diminish monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce capital inflows volatility. Furthermore, capital controls respond counter-cyclically to monetary shocks. Under capital controls, countries with floating exchange rate regimes have more potential to buffer monetary shocks. We also found that capital controls on inflows are more effective for reducing the volatility of capital inflows compared to capital controls on outflows.

This study contributes to the question of the effectiveness of capital controls in attenuating the effects of international shocks and reducing the volatility of capital flows. Previous studies have mostly focused on the role of macroprudential regulation; however, there is a lack of systematic effects of capital controls on monetary and exchange rate policies. To our knowledge, this is the first preliminary study to suggest that capital controls may buffer monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce the volatility of capital inflows. This study investigates the novel notion that capital controls allow for a notable counter-cyclical response of monetary and exchange rate policies to international financial shocks.

The purpose of this article is to investigate how national-level characteristics such as country wealth, a floating exchange rate and European Union (EU) membership influence firm-level perceptions of competition and firm-level innovation. Greater understanding of these relationships can promote more effective policymaking as well as add to the existing academic conversation regarding national factors and firm competitiveness.

The authors’ data consist of a panel of 27 countries in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia from 2002 to 2009 with a total of nearly 27,000 firms from the World Bank Enterprise Survey. The authors utilize a multinomial logistic regression to estimate firm-level perceptions of both domestic and foreign competition upon decisions to introduce new products and manage new product costs. The authors then estimate the probability of innovation (introduction of a new product/service, obtaining international quality certification) using a logistic regression. The marginal effects of the key explanatory variables for country wealth, floating exchange rate and EU membership are calculated.

While EU membership heightens perceptions of competition, firms in the EU are less likely to introduce new products or services. On the other hand, a firm in an EU member country is more likely to obtain international quality certification than one that is not. Both country wealth and a floating exchange correlate with enhanced perceptions of competition and innovation as expected.

The first finding regarding heightened perceptions of competition yet lower likelihood of introduction of new products/services among EU firms is surprising. Beyond adding to the empirical store of knowledge regarding the relationship of national factors to firm competitiveness, it suggests that more needs to be done with regard to innovation policy. The authors offer a general recommendation to employ more public–private partnerships for innovation among small and medium enterprises, as this has been effective in other parts of the world.

The purpose of this study is to examine real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in Malaysia.

The result of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition.

The result of the ARDL approach shows an increase in the real interest rate differential, productivity differential, the real oil price or reserve differential will lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate in the long run. The result of the generalized forecast error variance decomposition shows that the real interest rate differential, productivity differential, the real oil price, and reserve differential are generally important to the real exchange rate determination. Moreover, the result of the ARDL approach shows that an increase in real exchange rate misalignment will lead to a decrease in economic growth. More specifically, devaluation will promote economic growth and appreciation will hurt economic growth. Exchange rate can be a policy variable to influence economic growth. Real exchange rate misalignment should be avoided to enable the allocation of resources in the economy according to fundamentals.

A managed floating exchange rate regime could be a choice of exchange rate regime in other developing countries to achieve rapid economic growth.

Although economic theory generally does not support government intervention in international trade, casual observation shows that many developing countries adopt certain trade policies to promote their exports. The objective of this paper is to answer the question that whether developing countries can benefit from export promotion.

This paper considers a developing country which has to import new technology from the world market to improve its productivity. If it has certain economic rigidities, the country is short of foreign exchange and domestic firms cannot import an adequate amount of new technology. Even if there is no rigidity, domestic firms may not have sufficient incentive to invest in new technology. Therefore, the government can step in to subsidize exports. Through an analytical model, this paper investigates in what conditions the measures of export promotion can stimulate production and employment, and improve efficiency and social welfare.

This paper analyzes two effects of export promotion: raising the incentive of capital investment and reducing capital goods shortage caused by foreign exchange constraint. These effects might be the economic rationale for developing country governments to promote exports. It is found that export promotion can definitely raise employment and productivity, but whether these measures can stimulate the supply to the domestic market and improve domestic welfare depends on the sufficient and necessary condition given in the paper.

Establishes an analytical model to investigate in what conditions the measures of export promotion such as export subsidies and domestic currency devaluation can stimulate production and employment, and can improve efficiency and social welfare.

While undergoing currency crises, countries under fixed exchange rate regime elect to adopt flexible exchange rate regime. It is generally expected that if a country launches floating exchange rate regime, the exchange rate volatility increases. Therefore, the increase in exchange rate volatility may increase exposures to currency risks at the firm level. Previous research, however, such as Bian, Park and Cho (2006) shows that right after the currency crisis of 1997~1998, currency risk exposure for Korean firms actually decreased after the government adopted flexible exchange rate regime. In this study, we intend to study the effects of changes in exchange rate regimes on foreign currency exposures at the firm level around the currency crises in the 1990s using worldwide data. We use 2116 firms in 23 countries finds evidence that exchange rate exposure of majority of firms decreases after the financial crises. In a sub-sample analysis in which sub-samples are created depending on whether the home country changed exchange rate regime from fixed to flexible, we find that the reduction of exposure was greater for firms in countries that changed the regimes than those in countries that did not.