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1 – 10 of over 47000This paper is concerned with three interrelated aspects of financial development in Colombia‐first, the use of monetary correction, which involves the adjustment of various assets…
Abstract
This paper is concerned with three interrelated aspects of financial development in Colombia‐first, the use of monetary correction, which involves the adjustment of various assets and liabilities for changes in the price level; second, the development of efficient capital markets; and, third, the use of open‐market operations by the central bank to control money and inflation. The discussion of monetary correction begins with a consideration of the recent experience of the savings and housing corporations, which have applied a form of adjustment for price level changes to their assets (mortgages) and liabilities (deposits). Further, unlike other financial institutions in Colombia, these corporations have been largely immune from governmental restrictions on criteria for approving loans. It is suggested that a major positive impact of the particular type of monetary correction that has been used by the savings and housing corporations is the creation of flexibility in nominal rates of interest. This flexibility has led, in turn, to a tremendous short‐term increase in deposits and loans. However, it appears that the short‐term success of this sector is likely to become a long‐term contribution to financial development in Colombia only if monetary correction becomes widespread throughout the economy.
J. Christopher Hughen and Scott Beyer
In the increasingly globalized economy, foreign exchange fluctuations have multiple, conflicting effects on domestic stock prices. The purpose of this paper is to examine return…
Abstract
Purpose
In the increasingly globalized economy, foreign exchange fluctuations have multiple, conflicting effects on domestic stock prices. The purpose of this paper is to examine return data to determine the relation between the dollar’s value and stock prices as it relates to monetary policy.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors examine US stock returns over a 40-year period, which is classified according to monetary policy and dollar trend. To better understand the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations, the authors estimate a model of stock returns using the three Fama-French factors and a momentum factor. Then the authors explore the underlying economic fundamentals that drive the sharp difference in annual returns between periods when the dollar is in an uptrend trend with loose monetary policy and periods when the dollar is in a downtrend with tight monetary policy.
Findings
Over the last 40 years, US stock returns were 2.5 times higher when the dollar was trending up vs down. The factor model of returns shows that equity returns are positively associated with periods when the dollar appreciated. Returns were particularly high when the dollar was in an uptrend during accommodative monetary policy. During these periods, stocks in the consumer goods and services industries provided relatively high returns. This occurred with strong economic growth due to consumer spending. Stocks exhibited the lowest returns when the dollar was depreciating and the Federal Reserve was tightening.
Originality/value
The key contribution of the research is that currency trends should be analyzed in the light of monetary policy. During periods of accommodative monetary policy and dollar appreciation, the US stock market provided average returns of 18.7 percent compared to −3.29 percent during a period of restrictive monetary policy and dollar depreciation. This result is driven by stronger economic growth, which is composed of consumer spending that more than offsets the dollar’s impact on net exports.
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Christina Anderl and Guglielmo Maria Caporale
The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.
Abstract
Purpose
The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.
Findings
Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.
Originality/value
It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.
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Van Q. Tran, Sabina Alkire and Stephan Klasen
There has been a rapid expansion in the literature on the measurement of multidimensional poverty in recent years. This paper focuses on the longitudinal aspects of…
Abstract
There has been a rapid expansion in the literature on the measurement of multidimensional poverty in recent years. This paper focuses on the longitudinal aspects of multidimensional poverty and its link to dynamic income poverty measurement. Using panel household survey data in Vietnam from 2007, 2008, and 2010, the paper analyses the prevalence and dynamics of both multidimensional and monetary poverty from the same dataset. The results show that the monetary poor (or non-poor) are not always multidimensionally poor (or non-poor) – indeed the overlap between the two measures is much less than 50 percent. Additionally, monetary poverty shows faster progress as well as a higher level of fluctuation than multidimensional poverty. We suggest that rapid economic growth as experienced by Vietnam has had a larger and more immediate impact on monetary than on multidimensional poverty.
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Social scientists have increasingly turned to constructivist models to explain when, and how, international and world-level social forces constrain the policy-making autonomy of…
Abstract
Social scientists have increasingly turned to constructivist models to explain when, and how, international and world-level social forces constrain the policy-making autonomy of national states. While constructivists have shown that international ideational processes matter for domestic policy making, they have had a harder time explaining why some ideas gain prominence in policy discussions while others do not. This chapter develops an institutionally centered materialist model of idea selection, arguing that international relations of dependency give actors who control vital financial resources a greater capacity to shape the ideational agenda. This model is explored through a case study of the international sources of American monetary policy in the early 1960s. A detailed examination of archival materials shows that European officials at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development were able to advance their own ideas for American monetary policy because the United States was dependent on European cooperation to help resolve its mounting balance of payments problems.
Povilas Lastauskas and Julius Stakėnas
What would have been the hypothetical effect of monetary policy shocks had a country never joined the euro area, in cases where we know that the country in question actually did…
Abstract
What would have been the hypothetical effect of monetary policy shocks had a country never joined the euro area, in cases where we know that the country in question actually did join the euro area? It is one thing to investigate the impact of joining a monetary union, but quite another to examine two things at once: joining the union and experiencing actual monetary policy shocks. The authors propose a methodology that combines synthetic control ideas with the impulse response functions to uncover dynamic response paths for treated and untreated units, controlling for common unobserved factors. Focusing on the largest euro area countries, Germany, France, and Italy, the authors find that an unexpected rise in interest rates depresses inflation and significantly appreciates exchange rate, whereas gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations are less successfully controlled when a country belongs to the monetary union than would have been the case under the independent monetary policy. Importantly, Italy turns out to be the overall beneficiary, since all three channels – price, GDP, and exchange rate – deliver the desired results. The authors also find that stabilizing an economy within a union requires somewhat smaller policy changes than attempting to stabilize it individually, and therefore provides more policy space.
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Anna Szelągowska and Ilona Skibińska-Fabrowska
The monetary policy implementation and corporate investment are closely intertwined. The aim of modern monetary policy is to mitigate economic fluctuations and stabilise economic…
Abstract
Research Background
The monetary policy implementation and corporate investment are closely intertwined. The aim of modern monetary policy is to mitigate economic fluctuations and stabilise economic growth. One of the ways of influencing the real economy is influencing the level of investment by enterprises.
Purpose of the Chapter
This chapter provides evidence on how monetary policy affected corporate investment in Poland between 1Q 2000 and 3Q 2022. We investigate the impact of Polish monetary policy on investment outlays in contexts of high uncertainty.
Methodology
Using the correlation analysis and the regression model, we show the relation between the monetary policy and the investment outlays of Polish enterprises. We used the least squares method as the most popular in linear model estimation. The evaluation includes model fit, independent variable significance and random component, i.e. constancy of variance, autocorrelation, alignment with normal distribution, along with Fisher–Snedecor test and Breusch–Pagan test.
Findings
We find that Polish enterprises are responsive to changes in monetary policy. Hence, the corporate investment level is correlated with the effects of monetary policy (especially with the decision on the central bank's basic interest rate changes). We found evidence that QE policy has a positive impact on Polish investment outlays. The corporate investment in Poland is positively affected by respective monetary policies through Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) reference rate, inflation, corporate loans, weighted average interest rate on corporate loans.
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Rosaria Rita Canale and Rajmund Mirdala
The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II…
Abstract
The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.
This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.
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F. A. Hayek’s macroeconomic theory and policy ideas have gained renewed attention since the cheap-money boom until 2007, and subsequent bust, followed the basic Hayekian…
Abstract
F. A. Hayek’s macroeconomic theory and policy ideas have gained renewed attention since the cheap-money boom until 2007, and subsequent bust, followed the basic Hayekian narrative. Only to a very limited extent, however, do we find Hayek’s ideas on the agenda of mainstream macroeconomic researchers since Robert Lucas’s research program gave way to “Neoclassical” and “New Keynesian” DSGE models. We find examples of deeper interest on the periphery of the mainstream. Hayek’s influence on today’s macroeconomic policy discussions remains similarly limited, although he has become an icon to some opponents of loose monetary policy.
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