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South African public debt has recently increased significantly and has reached worrying levels. This study aims to examine the debt threshold effects on economic growth in South Africa, with an objective of suggesting a debt threshold as South African policymakers will seek to reduce debt to a sustainable level in the coming years.

The study applies a recent novel methodology advanced by Hansen (2017) that allows modelling a regression kink with an unknown threshold.

The findings of this study indicate a robust debt threshold of 37% of gross domestic product (GDP). Below this threshold, debt is growth-enhancing, but above 37% of GDP, debt is harmful to growth in South Africa.

Among other things, to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio, South Africa will need a fiscal consolidation policy by undertaking reforms to state-owned companies to reduce their reliance on public funds, as well as putting in place economic measures to boost long-term growth. The country should also improve tax collection in order to realize additional tax revenue through enhancing compliance and other revenue collection measures.

Most of the existing studies on debt threshold effects in Africa are panel data studies, which assume parameter homogeneity, by determining a single debt threshold value applicable to all countries. This can be misleading as the debt-growth nexus is country-specific, being conditional on several factors, such as institutional quality. The present study applies a recent novel methodology, which allows to model a regression kink with an unknown threshold, for the case of South Africa. The methodology endogenously determines the debt threshold while also allowing a country-specific analysis.

This study aims to explore the determinants of public debt in selected South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries for 19 years, from 2001 to 2019.

Using ordinary fixed and random effect models, the authors examine the role of internal and external factors in determining the composition of public debt. Furthermore, for robustness, they compare the results with two-stage least square (2SLS) regression estimates after considering the problem of endogeneity, overidentification, under-identification and weak instruments.

The findings show that among the selected macroeconomic variables, inflation, exchange rate and broad money have significant negative effects on the debt-GDP ratio. In contrast, military spending, corruption and interest rates appear to positively influence the same as per 2SLS results. From the policymaking perspective, SAARC countries should focus more on reducing military spending and make a concerted effort to augment investments in productive projects. Further, with strong fiscal consolidation and institutional quality, it is important to mitigate the frequent occurrence of corruption conundrums in emerging economies for the development of a transparent economic system.

The study is distinct from previous studies in two ways. First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies focusing on SAARC countries in the context of public debt. Second, the study expands the existing literature on public debt by taking into account both external and internal debts to decipher the within-country and cross-country determinants of debt accumulation. More specifically, this model considers accountability and transparency in the public sector, cross-border security challenges and benefits of globalization by including explanatory variables such as corruption, military expenditure spending and capital inflows.

This paper aims to develop a compound measure, which is fiscal vulnerability index, provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for Türkiye's economy.

The index is constructed using twelve distinct fiscal indicators and applying the portfolio method, which considers the time-varying cross-correlation structure between the subindices.

Dynamics of the fiscal vulnerability index indicate that it accurately predicts to the well-known fiscal crisis occurring in Türkiye's recent history. As a result, such a compound measure should be used in the early identification of fiscal vulnerability in Türkiye.

The main contribution of this paper, relative to existing papers, is that a fiscal vulnerability index was constructed by employing the most contemporaneous method and evaluating its performance in terms of capturing historical stress periods.

The study attempts to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic growth and public debt of the Indian economy. The authors also attempt to make quarterly projections of economic growth and external debt (ED) for the next five years. The objective is to understand how much time the economy takes to recover and at what pace. Consequently, this study elucidates the composition of debt after the crisis in the next five years.

To predict India's gross domestic product (GDP) and ED for the next five years, the authors used an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. This model was built under a Box–Jenkins methodology (Box and Jenkins, 1976) and was subjected to an augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test to check the stationarity of the data. The methodology includes three main steps to estimate and forecast the model: identification, estimation, and diagnostic and forecasting.

The study finds that the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has significant implications for economic growth and public debt. The economy faced contraction in the first quarter of the year 2020 due to the suspension of economic activities and still struggling with the negative values of GDP. The forecasting results reveal that ED will continue to grow to meet the increasing health expenditure needs, and GDP will also bounce back slowly after the end of the year 2021. It has been noticed that the recurrent crisis derails the developing economies from the path of sustainable development to a prolonged economic slump with mounting public debt.

The study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth and public debt with particular reference to India. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time the quarterly projections for GDP and ED have been made after the COVID-19 crisis.

This paper presents a review of literature, aimed at analyzing and understanding the nexus of knowledge on the topic of government budgetary responses to COVID-19 and identifying gaps for future research directions on crisis budgeting.

A systematic literature review approach was conducted by considering scientific journal articles written in English and published through 2020–2022. The databases used for the literature search in this paper were Scopus and Web of Science, resulting in 41 articles for final review.

This review found that in a crisis, budgetary responses were greatly determined by perceived uncertainties. In the case of the COVID-19 crisis, governments seemed to prioritize economic recovery. While many studies have documented budgetary responses to the crisis, most were written in the beginning of the crisis through documentary content analysis, leaving significant research gaps. Thus, this review offers directions for future research concerning governmental response to perceived uncertainty, logic behind governments' budgeting strategies, sustainable development principles within crisis budgeting and the prioritization of economic considerations in a health crisis.

This paper is one of the first to present insights into the state of research regarding the topic of government budgeting during the COVID-19 crisis. In addition, it provides insights from the literature for anticipating future shocks and crises, along with directions for future researchers in developing their research agenda.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-01-2023-0057

The World Bank-sponsored public financial management reforms attempt to instil fiscal discipline through techno-managerial packages. Taking Ghana's integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) as a case, this paper explores how and why local actors engaged in counter-conduct against these reforms.

Interviews, observations and documentary analyses on the operationalisation of IFMIS constitute this paper's empirical basis. Theoretically, the paper draws on Foucauldian notions of governmentality and counter-conduct.

Empirics demonstrate how and why politicians and bureaucrats enacted ways of escaping, evading and subverting IFMIS's disciplinary regime. Politicians found the new accounting regime too constraining to their electoral and patronage politics and, therefore, enacted counter-conduct around the notion of political exigencies, creating expansionary fiscal conditions which the World Bank tried to mitigate through IFMIS. Perceiving the new regime as subverting their bureaucratic identity and influence, bureaucrats counter-conducted reforms through questioning, critiquing and rhetorical venting. Notably, the patronage politics of appropriating wealth and power underpins both these political and bureaucratic counter-conducts.

This study contributes to the critical accounting understanding of global public financial management reform failures by offering new empirical and theoretical insights as to how and why politicians and bureaucrats who are supposed to own and implement them nullify the global governmentality intentions of fiscal disciplining through subdued forms of resistance.

As China’s industrial structure continues to upgrade and optimize, the consumption capacity of rural residents gradually improves and the role of consumption in economic growth is increasingly prominent. Against the background of weak external demand, the untapped potential of rural consumption has become a key force in expanding domestic demand. As one of the important means that the government has long relied on, fiscal support for agriculture has played a crucial role in activating the rural consumer market. This manuscript aims to explore the impact of local fiscal support for agricultural expenditure (FSAE) on rural consumption in China, as well as to examine the mediating role of the level of rural financial development.

In this manuscript, the authors use the provincial panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020. The data of all variables mainly come from China Statistical Yearbook and China Rural Statistical Yearbook. According to the variable selection above, 651 sample data of 31 provinces and cities across China from 2000 to 2020 are organized. In terms of methodology, multiple fixed-effects panel model is applied to regression.

Firstly, FSAE varies significantly, while rural consumption slowly but steadily rises, with a relatively stable consumption structure. Secondly, FSAE has a significant positive effect on rural consumption. Thirdly, mediation testing indicates that mechanisms such as income, uncertainty and financial development have significant positive mediating effects on rural consumption. Thirdly, there is evident regional heterogeneity in FSAE’s impact on rural consumption. The Western regions, under government fiscal support, show a more significant effect on the elevation of rural consumption levels, while the role of FSAE in optimizing the consumption structure of rural residents in eastern and central regions is more pronounced.

Firstly, a systematic examination of local FSAE and rural consumption has been conducted, enriching relevant theories. Secondly, utilizing econometric empirical methods to research the relationship between local FSAE and rural consumption provides an exploratory extension to empirical studies on rural consumption in China. This offers empirical evidence for local fiscal support in agricultural development and the promotion of rural consumption.

The purpose of this study is to use the structural model to determine the influence of mobile telecommunication on Egypt’s economic growth from 2000 to 2009. By focusing on mobile unique subscribers and mobile broadband-capable device penetration as indicators of telecommunications adoption, the authors seek to understand their overarching effects on the nation’s economic landscape.

The paper uses quarterly time-series data set over the period 2000–2019 and uses a structural econometric model based on an aggregate production function, a demand function, a supply function and an infrastructure function to detect causality and examine long-run relationships between variables.

The findings of the structural model reveal that both mobile unique subscribers and mobile broadband-capable device penetration significantly contributed to Egypt’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 2000 to 2019. Specifically, a 1% increase in mobile unique subscriber penetration and mobile broadband-capable device adoption is estimated to result in an average annual contribution to GDP growth of 0.172% and 0.016%, respectively.

The scarcity of panel data is the main research limitation for comparative study with other Middle East and North African Region (MENA) countries. Research extensions would include testing the significance of complementarities such as improving governance measures and building human capacity for both households and firms, which are necessary to boost the impact of telecommunication on economic growth in the MENA region.

Based on these findings, the study puts forth policy recommendations aimed at maximizing investment in network utilization, including mobile and internet services, as well as fixed broadband subscriptions. It highlights the crucial role of these investments in promoting social and economic development, not only in Egypt but also across the MENA region as a whole.

The findings of this research emphasize the importance of strategic investments in network utilization, encompassing mobile, internet services and fixed broadband subscriptions. Such investments are pivotal for fostering social and financial inclusion. The study underscores the potential of these investments to drive social and economic progress, not just within Egypt but throughout the entire MENA region.

Overall, existing literature generally supports the notion that the telecommunications sector has a positive economic impact. However, there is a gap in the literature when it comes to understanding the specific effects of the Egyptian telecommunications sector on the country’s economy, particularly in relation to the Egypt Vision 2030. The study aims to fill this gap by focusing specifically on Egypt and providing additional insights into the direct and indirect effects of the Egyptian telecommunications sector on the economy. By conducting a thorough analysis of the sector’s role, the authors aim to contribute to the existing literature by providing context-specific findings and recommendations.

The unsustainable public debt of most African economies adversely affects their economic growth and stability. This study aims to explore the influence of cross-country indicators of governance from African countries on public debt accumulation.

The study deployed a quantitative research design technique. Secondary data was used in this study. The frequency of the data is annual, and it is available from 1996 to 2022 for 48 countries in Africa. The study deployed the system generalized method of moments for the estimation.

The study finds that countries with high regulatory quality standards, control corruption and ensure effective governance accumulate less government debt while countries that abide by the rule of law instead accumulate more government debt. The study also finds that economic growth and government revenue reduce government gross debt while government expenditure and investments increase public debt.

Due to data unavailability, other factors which are likely to influence government debt accumulation were not included in the study as control variables. This is the limitation of the study.

African governments should strive to maintain high regulatory quality standards through the formulation and implementation of sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development, and ensure quality and accountability of public and civil services. Governments are also urged to control corruption and enact good laws so that the enforcement of these laws will not worsen the risk of becoming debt-distressed.

Recent studies on governance and public debt were focused on the Arabian Gulf countries, countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and a combination of high and low-income countries. This study scrutinizes exclusively the effects of the quality of governance indicators on public debt accumulation, in the context of Africa.

The purpose of this study is to shed light on the relationships between the different types of ownership structure and tax avoidance activities and examine the moderating effect of audit quality.

This study used secondary data from the listed companies in Amman Stock Exchange (2009–2020). To obtain additional robust findings, this study used various proxies for measuring tax avoidance (effective tax rate [ETR] and cash flow effective tax rate [CFETR]).

Relying on various proxies for tax avoidance, the results reveal that family and managerial ownership lead to exacerbating tax avoidance activities. Although institutional and board ownership have a positive impact on ETR and CFETR, which indicate that these type of ownership have a negative impact on tax avoidance. Audit quality also has a significant role in moderating the ownership structure–tax avoidance relationships. Besides, the results reveal that audit firm size is not merely symbolic words, but it contributes to reducing and restricting tax aggressiveness.

This study has policy implications related to the policymakers in creating future tax policies to minimize and avoid tax avoidance activities. Results of this study can be used to improve awareness among the various owners and to reduce the tax avoidance practices in the developing countries. It also determines a good agenda for research in the relationships between ownership identities, audit quality and tax avoidance, which also can be used to encourage and guide future studies.

This research extends the existing literature by examining both the direct and indirect influence of ownership structure on tax avoidance in Jordanian firms by including audit quality as a moderating variable. This is a pioneering and unique study examining the joint influence of the different forms of ownership on tax avoidance. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first of its kind that examines the interaction influences between the various identities of ownership and audit quality on the tax avoidance activities in the Jordanian context.