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Most empirical papers on threshold effects between debt and growth focus on developed countries or a mix of developing and developed economies, often using public debt. Evidence for developing economies is inconclusive, as is the analysis of other threshold effects such as those probably caused by the level of relative development or the repayment capacity. The objective of this study was to examine threshold effects for developing economies, including external and total debt, and identify them in the debt-growth relation considering three determinants: debt itself, initial real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and debt to exports ratio.

We used a panel threshold regression model (PTRM) and a dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM) for a sample of 47 developing countries from 1970 to 2019.

We found (1) no evidence of threshold effects applying total debt as a threshold variable; (2) one critical value for external debt of 42.32% (using PTRM) and 67.11% (using DPTM), above which this factor is detrimental to growth; (3) two turning points for initial GDP as a threshold variable, where total and external debt positively affects growth at a very low initial GDP, it becomes nonsignificant between critical values, and it negatively influences growth above the second threshold; (4) one critical value for external debt to exports using PTRM and DPTM, below which external debt positively affects growth and negatively above it.

The outcome suggests that only poorer economies can leverage credits. The level of the threshold for the debt to exports ratio is higher than that found in previous literature, implying that the external restriction could be less relevant in recent periods. However, the threshold for the external debt-to-GDP ratio is lower compared to previous evidence.

South African public debt has recently increased significantly and has reached worrying levels. This study aims to examine the debt threshold effects on economic growth in South Africa, with an objective of suggesting a debt threshold as South African policymakers will seek to reduce debt to a sustainable level in the coming years.

The study applies a recent novel methodology advanced by Hansen (2017) that allows modelling a regression kink with an unknown threshold.

The findings of this study indicate a robust debt threshold of 37% of gross domestic product (GDP). Below this threshold, debt is growth-enhancing, but above 37% of GDP, debt is harmful to growth in South Africa.

Among other things, to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio, South Africa will need a fiscal consolidation policy by undertaking reforms to state-owned companies to reduce their reliance on public funds, as well as putting in place economic measures to boost long-term growth. The country should also improve tax collection in order to realize additional tax revenue through enhancing compliance and other revenue collection measures.

Most of the existing studies on debt threshold effects in Africa are panel data studies, which assume parameter homogeneity, by determining a single debt threshold value applicable to all countries. This can be misleading as the debt-growth nexus is country-specific, being conditional on several factors, such as institutional quality. The present study applies a recent novel methodology, which allows to model a regression kink with an unknown threshold, for the case of South Africa. The methodology endogenously determines the debt threshold while also allowing a country-specific analysis.

The purpose of this study is to seek to re-examine the threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in Africa.

This study applies panel smooth transition regression approach advanced by González et al. (2017). The method allows for both heterogeneity as well as a smooth change of regression coefficients from one regime to another.

A debt threshold in the range of 62–66% is estimated for the whole sample. Low debt is found to be growth neutral but higher public debt is growth detrimental. For middle-income and resource-intensive countries, a debt threshold in the range of 58–63% is estimated. As part of robustness checks, a dynamic panel threshold model was also applied to deal with the endogeneity of debt, and a much higher debt threshold was estimated, at 74.3%. While low public debt is found to be either growth neutral or growth enhancing, high public debt is consistently detrimental to growth.

The findings of this study show that there is no single debt threshold applicable to all African countries, and confirm that the debt threshold level is sensitive to modeling choices. While further analysis is still needed to suggest a policy, the findings of this study show that high debt is detrimental to growth.

The novelty of this study is twofold. Contrary to previous studies on Africa, this study applies a different estimation technique which allows for heterogeneity and a smooth change of regression coefficients from one regime to another. Another novelty distinct from the previous studies is that, for robustness checks, this study divides the sample into low- and middle-income countries, and into resource- and nonresource intensive countries, as debt experience can differ among country groups. Further, as part of robustness checks, another estimation method is also applied in which the threshold variable (debt) is allowed to be endogenous.

The purpose of this study is to examine the fiscal sustainability issue by dividing the fiscal deficit into high and low regimes using the quarterly data from 1997: Q1 to 2013: Q3. Further, we obtain the optimum level of public debt at which fiscal sustainability can be achieved.

This study uses the Markov Switching-Vector Error Correction Model (MS-VECM) for examining fiscal sustainability and threshold regression model to obtain the optimum level of debt.

The results derived from MS-VECM reveal the evidence in favor of fiscal sustainability during low fiscal deficit periods. Similarly, using a threshold regression model, the optimum public debt as a percentage to GDP seems to be around 21 per cent on a quarterly basis, beyond this level, public debt hurts economic growth.

From the policy front, the government of India should cut down the fiscal deficit only if debt reaches beyond a threshold level.

Noting that the vast literature has focused on examining the fiscal sustainability in India, the novelty of this study is to examine the fiscal sustainability by considering high and low deficits regimes using a non-linear approach.

This paper aims to test whether a debt threshold of public debt has any effect on economic growth in Africa.

The authors applied the panel autoregressive distributed models on 38 African countries with annual data from 1970 to 2015. It was established that the threshold and the trajectory of debt has an impact on economic growth.

Specifically, the authors found that public debt hampers economic growth when the depth is in the region of 20 to 80 per cent of GDP. Based on debt trajectory, this study established that increasing public debt beyond 50 to 80 per cent of GDP adversely affects economic growth in Africa. The study also finds that the persistent rise in debt also has adverse effect on economic growth in the African countries in the sample. It must be known to policymakers that the threshold of debt in developing countries, and for that matter African countries, are less than that of developed countries.

This study suggests threshold effects between 20 and 50 per cent; this should be a guide for policymakers in the accumulation of debt stock. Interestingly, the findings suggest some debt trajectory effect, which policymakers might consider by increasing efforts to reduce debt levels when they fall between 50 to 80 per cent of GDP. This implies that reducing such debt levels can help African countries increase their economic growth.

The study is unique because it seeks to add new evidence on the relationship between public debt and growth in the African region, by considering the impact of the persistent growth of public debt on economic growth.

This study aims to interrogate dynamic asymmetric relationships between public debt and economic growth in Southern African Developing Communities (SADC), over the period 2000–2018.

The study employed a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) technique to analyse dynamic asymmetric relationships between public debt and economic growth, and the threshold effect at which public debt hampers economic growth.

The findings indicate that there is a significant nonlinear effect of debt on economic growth in SADC. The study discovered a debt threshold of 60% to GDP at which debt beyond this threshold deteriorates long-term growth. The low-debt regime was found to be positive and statistically significant, while the high-debt regime is detrimental for long-term growth. Fiscal policymakers ought to consider the adoption of well-coordinated debt policies that aims to strike a balance between sustainable public debt and economic growth, within a reasonable threshold target.

The study focusses on asymmetric and threshold analysis of public debt on economic growth in SADC using sophisticated panel smooth transition regression (STAR). This study provides rigorous empirical evidence within the SADC perspective in which previous studies have predominantly been confined in advanced economies.

This manuscript reports evidence on how debt-taking decisions of top management in a multi-country setting do affect credit rating scores assigned by credit rating agencies (CRAs) as global monitors of creditworthiness of borrowers. This aspect has been long ignored by researchers in the literature. The purpose of this paper is twofold. A test model is specified first using theories to connect debt-taking behavior to credit rating scores. Once that model helps to identify a number of statistically significant factors, the next step helps to identify threshold values at which the variables driving debt-taking behavior would worsen the credit rating scores as turning points of the thresholds.

The study identifies factors driving creditworthiness scores due to debt-taking behavior of countries and develops a correct research design to identify a model that explains (1) credit rating scores and the factors driving the scores and runs (2) panel-type regressions to test model fit. Having found factors driving debt-taking behavior by observed units, the next step identifies threshold values of factors at which point further debt-taking is likely to worsen credit rating risk of the observed units. This is a robustness test of the methodology used. The observed units are 20 countries with data series across 14 years.

First, new findings suggest there are about six major factors associated with debt-taking behavior and credit rating changes. Second, the model developed in this study is able to account for substantial variability while the identified factors are statistically significant within the normal p-values for acceptance of hypotheses. Finally, the threshold values of factors identified are likely to be useful for managerial decisions to judge the levels at which further debt-taking would worsen the credit rating scores of the observed units.

The observed units are from 20 countries over 14 years of annual data available on credit rating scores (privately obtained from Standard and Poor [S&P]). The sample represents major economies but did not include emerging countries. In that regard, it will be worthwhile to explore the debt-taking behavior of emerging economies in a future study using the methodology verified in this study.

The findings help add few useful guidelines for top management decisions. (1) There are actually factors that are associated with debt-taking behavior, so the authors now know these factors as guides for managerial actions. (2) The authors are free to state that the credit rating changes occur on objective changes in the factors found as significantly related to the debt-taking behavior. (3) The threshold values of key factors are known, so top management could use these threshold values of named factors to monitor if a debt-taking decision is going to push the credit rating to a worse score.

There are society-wide implications. Knowing that the world's debt level is high at US$2.2 for each gross domestic product (GDP) dollar across almost 200 countries, any knowledge on what factors help drive creditworthiness scores, thus credit riskiness, is revealed in this paper. Knowing those factors and also knowing the turning points of the factors – the threshold values – likely to worsen creditworthiness scores is a powerful tool for controlling excessive debt-taking by an observation unit included in this study (The dataset in this research can also be used to see inter-temporal movement on debt-taking in a future study).

In the authors' view, there are many studies on debt-taking behavior. But none has connected debt-taking on how (1) named factors are observable to management that affect credit rating changes and (2) if a factor affects creditworthiness, at which point of the factor value, the creditworthiness will flip to worsen the score. These aspects are seldom found in the literature. Hence, the paper is original with practical value at the global level.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of leverage on Malaysian listed firms' value and the optimal level of debt at which a firm could maximize its value.

The authors employ an advanced panel threshold regression estimation developed in 1999 by Hansen that will indicate whether there are positive and negative impacts of leverage on firm value. This estimation procedure has the advantage of quantifying the threshold level of debt as compared to the ad hoc classification procedure of splitting the sample.

The results show that debt is only pertinent to the firm value up to a threshold level of 64.33 per cent. Additional debt beyond the threshold level does not add to a firm's value. The appropriate level of debt should be applied, which would thus maximize the firm and stockholders' value.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to look at this issue for Malaysian listed firms. The findings from this paper may provide a critical analysis of the usage of debt in firms' capital structure. An excessive level of debt could lead to a debt overhang situation and insolvency at the microeconomic firm level; this could eventually could cause vulnerability in financial systems and thus lead to the financial catastrophes.

The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to model the value of the firm in the presence of contingent capital and multiple growth options over its life cycle in a stochastic universe to ensure financial stability and recover losses in case of default and second, to clarify how contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds as financial instruments impact the leverage-ratio policies, inefficiencies generated by debt overhang and asset substitution for a firm that has multiple growth options. Additionally, what is its impact on investment timing, capital structure and asset volatility?

The current paper elaborates the modeling of a dynamic problem with respect to the interaction between funding and investment policies during multiple sequential investment cycles simultaneously with dynamic funding. The authors model the value of the firm in the presence of contingent capital that provides flexibility in dealing with default risks as well as growth options in a stochastic universe. The authors examine the firm's closed-form solutions at each stage of its decision-making process before and after the exercise of the growth options (with and without conversion of CoCo) through applying the backward indication method and the risk-neutral pricing theory.

The numerical results show that inefficiencies related to debt overhang and asset substitution can go down with a higher conversion ratio and a larger number of growth options. Additionally, the authors’ analysis reveals that the firm systematically opts for conservative leverage to minimize the effect of debt overhang on decisions so as to exercise growth options in the future. However, the capital structure of the firm has a substantial effect on the leverage ratio and the asset substitution. In fact, the effect of the leverage ratio and the risk-shifting incentive will be greater when the capital structure changes during the firm's decision-making process. Contrarily to traditional corporate finance theory, the study displays that the value of the firm before the investment expansion decreases and then increases with asset volatility, instead of decreasing overall with asset volatility.

The study’s findings reveal that funding, default and conversion decisions have crucial implications on growth option exercise decisions and leverage ratio policy. The model also shows that the firm consistently chooses conservative leverage to reduce the effect of debt overhang on decisions to exercise growth options in the future. The risk-shifting incentive and the debt overhang inefficiency basically decrease with a higher conversion ratio and multiple growth options. However, the effect of the leverage ratio and the risk-shifting incentive will be greater when the capital structure changes during the firm's decision-making process.

The firm's composition between assets in place and growth options evolves endogenously with its investment opportunity and growth option financing, as well as its default decision. In contrast to the standard capital structure models of Leland (1994), the model reveals that both exogenous conversion decisions and endogenous default decisions have significant implications for firms' growth option exercise decisions and debt policies. The model induces some predictions about the dynamics of the firm's choice of leverage as well as the link between the dynamics of leverage and the firm's life cycle.

Productivity growth in Italy has been persistently anemic and lagged that of the euro area over the period 1999–2015, while the indebtedness of its corporate sector increased. Using the ORBIS firm-level database, this chapter studies the long-term impact of persistent corporate-debt accumulation on the productivity growth of Italian firms, and investigates whether total factor productivity (TFP) growth varies with the level of corporate indebtedness. The authors employ a novel estimation technique proposed by Chudik, Mohaddes, Pesaran, & Raissi (2017) to account for dynamics, bi-directional feedback effects, cross-firm heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence arising from unobserved common factors (e.g., oil price shocks, labor and product market frictions, and the stance of the global financial cycle). Filtering out the effects of unobserved common factors and controlling for firm-specific characteristics, the authors find significant negative effects of persistent corporate-debt build-up on firms’ TFP growth on average, and weak evidence of a threshold level of corporate debt, beyond which productivity growth drops off significantly. The results have strong policy implications, for example the design of the tax system should discourage persistent corporate-debt accumulation, and effective and timely frameworks to reduce corporate-debt overhangs are essential.