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1 – 10 of over 3000Chunsuk Park, Dong-Soon Kim and Kaun Y. Lee
This study attempts to conduct a comparative analysis between dynamic and static asset allocation to achieve the long-term target return on asset liability management (ALM). This…
Abstract
This study attempts to conduct a comparative analysis between dynamic and static asset allocation to achieve the long-term target return on asset liability management (ALM). This study conducts asset allocation using the ex ante expected rate of return through the outlook of future economic indicators because past economic indicators or realized rate of returns which are used as input data for expected rate of returns in the “building block” method, most adopted by domestic pension funds, does not fully reflect the future economic situation. Vector autoregression is used to estimate and forecast long-term interest rates. Furthermore, it is applied to gross domestic product and consumer price index estimation because it is widely used in financial time series data. Based on asset allocation simulations, this study derived the following insights: first, economic indicator filtering and upper-lower bound computation is needed to reduce the expected return volatility. Second, to reach the ALM goal, more stocks should be allocated than low-yielding assets. Finally, dynamic asset allocation which has been mirroring economic changes actively has a higher annual yield and risk-adjusted return than static asset allocation.
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In the early 1930s, Nicholas Kaldor could be classified as an Austrian economist. The author reconstructs the intertwined paths of Kaldor and Friedrich A. Hayek to disequilibrium…
Abstract
Purpose
In the early 1930s, Nicholas Kaldor could be classified as an Austrian economist. The author reconstructs the intertwined paths of Kaldor and Friedrich A. Hayek to disequilibrium economics through the theoretical deficiencies exposed by the Austrian theory of capital and its consequences on equilibrium analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
The author approaches the discussion using a theoretical and historical reconstruction based on published and unpublished materials.
Findings
The integration of capital theory into a business cycle theory by the Austrians and its shortcomings – e.g. criticized by Piero Sraffa and Gunnar Myrdal – called attention to the limitation of the theoretical apparatus of equilibrium analysis in dynamic contexts. This was a central element to Kaldor’s emancipation in 1934 and his subsequent conversion to John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936). In addition, it was pivotal to Hayek’s reformulation of equilibrium as a social coordination problem in “Economics and Knowledge” (1937). It also had implications for Kaldor’s mature developments, such as the construction of the post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution, the Cambridge capital controversy, and his critique of neoclassical equilibrium economics.
Originality/value
The close encounter between Kaldor and Hayek in the early 1930s, the developments during that decade and its mature consequences are unexplored in the secondary literature. The author attempts to construct a coherent historical narrative that integrates many intertwined elements and personas (e.g. the reception of Knut Wicksell in the English-speaking world; Piero Sraffa’s critique of Hayek; Gunnar Myrdal’s critique of Wicksell, Hayek, and Keynes; the Hayek-Knight-Kaldor debate; the Kaldor-Hayek debate, etc.) that were not connected until now by previous commentators.
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Jin Gi Kim, Hyun-Tak Lee and Bong-Gyu Jang
This paper examines whether the successful bid rate of the OnBid public auction, published by Korea Asset Management Corporation, can identify and forecast the Korea…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines whether the successful bid rate of the OnBid public auction, published by Korea Asset Management Corporation, can identify and forecast the Korea business-cycle expansion and contraction regimes characterized by the OECD reference turning points. We use logistic regression and support vector machine in performing the OECD regime classification and predicting three-month-ahead regime. We find that the OnBid auction rate conveys important information for detecting the coincident and future regimes because this information might be closely related to deleveraging regarding default on debt obligations. This finding suggests that corporate managers and investors could use the auction information to gauge the regime position in their decision-making. This research has an academic significance that reveals the relationship between the auction market and the business-cycle regimes.
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Carlos Contreras and Julio Angulo
The purpose of this paper is to propose a Clarke-Groves Tax (CGT) type as a remedy to the criticism that the implementation of Eurobonds has raised regarding the risk of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to propose a Clarke-Groves Tax (CGT) type as a remedy to the criticism that the implementation of Eurobonds has raised regarding the risk of undermining fiscal discipline. In this model, a government minimizes its sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio in a given period and decides whether to join a common sovereign debt club. In doing so, it exposes itself to a positive or negative tax burden while benefiting from the liquidity premium involved in creating a secure asset. The authors found that the introduction of this tax may prevent free riding behaviours if Eurobonds were to be implemented. To illustrate this, the authors provide some numerical simulations for the Eurozone.
Design/methodology/approach
In the model presented, a government which optimizes a social utility function decides whether to join the common debt club.
Findings
The adoption of the proposed tax could prevent free-riding behaviours and, therefore, encourages participation by those countries with lower debt levels that would have not otherwise taken part in this common debt mechanism. Under certain circumstances, we can expect the utility of all members of this club to improve. The bias in the distribution of gains might be mitigated by regulating the tax rule determining the magnitude of payment/reward. The proportion of the liquidity premium, arising from the implementation of a sovereign safe asset, has a decisive impact on the degree of the governments’ utility enhancement.
Research limitations/implications
The adoption of a CGT would require Eurobonds club members to reach an agreement on “the” theoretical model for determining the sovereign debt yield. One of the limitations of this model is considering the debt-to-GDP ratio as the sole determinant of public debt yields. Moreover, the authors assumed the relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and funding costs to be identical for all countries. Any progress in the implementation of the proposed transfer scheme would require a more realistic and in-depth analysis.
Practical implications
A new fiscal rule based on compensating countries with lower public debt levels could be a way to mitigate free-riding problems if a Eurobond mechanism is to be established.
Originality/value
This fiscal rule has not been proposed or analysed before in a context such as that considered by this paper.
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Unggul Priyadi, Kurnia Dwi Sari Utami, Rifqi Muhammad and Peni Nugraheni
This study aims to examine the influence of internal and external factors on the credit risk (represented by nonperforming financing [NPF]) of Indonesian Sharīʿah rural banks…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the influence of internal and external factors on the credit risk (represented by nonperforming financing [NPF]) of Indonesian Sharīʿah rural banks (SRBs) – a type of Islamic bank that provides Islamic financial services especially to small and medium businesses in Indonesia. Internal variables comprise capital adequacy ratio (CAR), financing to deposit ratio (FDR), return on assets (ROA), operating expense ratio (OER), financing to value (FTV) and profit and loss sharing (PLS) financing ratio. External variables comprise inflation, economic growth and interest rate.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses the annual reports of SRBs in Indonesia as secondary data for the years 2010–2019. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) is used as the analysis method to examine the short-run and long-run relationships between the variables.
Findings
The findings indicate that four variables experienced a lag in the short run, namely, NPF, inflation, CAR and PLS, with different results recorded for each of the variables. Furthermore, the long-run results show that CAR and ROA influence the NPF of SRBs positively, whereas inflation and PLS have a negative influence on NPF. The rest of the variables – notably economic growth, interest rate, FDR, FTV and OER – do not have an influence on NPF in SRBs.
Research limitations/implications
The level of NPF in SRBs exceeds the provision of the Central Bank of Indonesia. The findings are expected to have implications for SRBs and the regulator to consider and to manage the factors related to NPF properly due to the important role of SRBs in small and medium businesses’ development.
Originality/value
This study measures the determinants of NPF using internal and external variables, including the addition of a dummy variable, notably FTV. This study also uses ARDL to analyze the financial policies involving data at the present time and lagged time.
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BongJoo Jeong and June-Young Bang
Smart factory is the most important feature of the fourth industrial revolution in the manufacturing field. In this paper, we introduce smart factory solutions suggested by the…
Abstract
Smart factory is the most important feature of the fourth industrial revolution in the manufacturing field. In this paper, we introduce smart factory solutions suggested by the major solution providers. Furthermore, we classify solutions by the category of three value-chain activities: product development activity, product manufacturing activity, and sales activity. In addition, the status-of-art and best practices of the smart factory solutions are introduced. To examine the current trends of smart factories, we classified the manufacturing industries into four groups based on two factors: product variety and production volumes, and suggest directions for the successful application of smart factories in each industry group. Finally, we suggest strategies to improve the actual manufacturing competitiveness of factories.
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Alberto Antonio Agudelo Aguirre, Néstor Darío Duque Méndez and Ricardo Alfredo Rojas Medina
This study aims to determine whether, by means of the application of genetic algorithms (GA) through the traditional technical analysis (TA) using moving average…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to determine whether, by means of the application of genetic algorithms (GA) through the traditional technical analysis (TA) using moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), is possible to achieve higher yields than those that would be obtained using technical analysis investment strategies following a traditional approach (TA) and the buy and hold (B&H) strategy.
Design/methodology/approach
The study was carried out based on the daily price records of the NASDAQ financial asset during 2013–2017. TA approach was carried out under graphical analysis applying the standard MACD. GA approach took place by chromosome encoding, fitness evaluation and genetic operators. Traditional genetic operators (i.e. crossover and mutation) were adopted as based on the chromosome customization and fitness evaluation. The chromosome encoding stage used MACD to represent the genes of each chromosome to encode the parameters of MACD in a chromosome. For each chromosome, buy and sell indexes of the strategy were considered. Fitness evaluation served to defining the evaluation strategy of the chromosomes in the population according to the fitness function using the returns gained in each chromosome.
Findings
The paper provides empirical-theoretical insights about the effectiveness of GA to overcome the investment strategies based on MACD and B&H by achieving 5 and 11% higher returns per year, respectively. GA-based approach was additionally capable of improving the return-to-risk ratio of the investment.
Research limitations/implications
Limitations deal with the fact that the study was carried out on US markets conditions and data which hamper its application in some extend to markets with not as much development.
Practical implications
The findings suggest that not only skilled but also amateur investors may opt for investment strategies based on GA aiming at refining profitable financial signals to their advantage.
Originality/value
This paper looks at machine learning as an up-to-date tool with great potential for increasing effectiveness in profits when applied into TA investment approaches using MACD in well-developed stock markets.
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Billy Prananta and Constantinos Alexiou
The authors explore the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors explore the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) methodology using daily data of the Indonesian economy over the period 2012–2021.
Findings
Whilst, over the full sample period, the authors find no cointegration between the exchange rate, the 10-year bond yield and stock market, for the COVID-19 period, evidence of cointegration is present. Furthermore, the results suggest that asymmetric effects are evident both in the short as well as the long run.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and during the COVID-19 pandemic has been explored in the case of the Indonesian economy.
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Mohammad Selim and M. Kabir Hassan
This paper aims to examine the effects of interest-free and interest-based monetary policy on inflation and unemployment rates for two groups of countries where in one group…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the effects of interest-free and interest-based monetary policy on inflation and unemployment rates for two groups of countries where in one group, interest-free monetary policy (IFMP) was pursued, while in the other group, interest-based monetary policy (IBMP) was followed.
Design/methodology/approach
This study involves a sample of 23 developed countries divided into two groups. The authors measure economic performance by misery index (MI), and MI is calculated as unemployment rate plus inflation rate. A group of countries, where MI is lower, performs better compared to the other group where MI is relatively higher.
Findings
The results reveal that in group of 12 countries where IFMP is adopted, the MI is lower and thus performs better compared to a group of countries where IBMP is pursued.
Research limitations/implications
The findings of this study have profound implications for the policymakers and government leaders who look for a solution to maintain both low inflation and unemployment rates. The findings in this study clearly portray that such ideal situations can only be achieved by pursuing IFMP. No wonder the countries which have been historically pursuing IFMP such as Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Denmark have been able to contain both inflation and unemployment rates compared to their counterparts among the English-speaking countries.
Originality/value
This is one of the most recent tests on the differences in economic performance between IFMP and IBMP. These results have significant value for policymakers and central bankers who have been struggling to maintain lower MI for decades.
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Rick van de Ven, Shaunak Dabadghao and Arun Chockalingam
The credit ratings issued by the Big 3 ratings agencies are inaccurate and slow to respond to market changes. This paper aims to develop a rigorous, transparent and robust credit…
Abstract
Purpose
The credit ratings issued by the Big 3 ratings agencies are inaccurate and slow to respond to market changes. This paper aims to develop a rigorous, transparent and robust credit assessment and rating scheme for sovereigns.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper develops a regression-based model using credit default swap (CDS) data, and data on financial and macroeconomic variables to estimate sovereign CDS spreads. Using these spreads, the default probabilities of sovereigns can be estimated. The new ratings scheme is then used in conjunction with these default probabilities to assign credit ratings to sovereigns.
Findings
The developed model accurately estimates CDS spreads (based on RMSE values). Credit ratings issued retrospectively using the new scheme reflect reality better.
Research limitations/implications
This paper reveals that both macroeconomic and financial factors affect both systemic and idiosyncratic risks for sovereigns.
Practical implications
The developed credit assessment and ratings scheme can be used to evaluate the creditworthiness of sovereigns and subsequently assign robust credit ratings.
Social implications
The transparency and rigor of the new scheme will result in better and trustworthy indications of a sovereign’s financial health. Investors and monetary authorities can make better informed decisions. The episodes that occurred during the debt crisis could be avoided.
Originality/value
This paper uses both financial and macroeconomic data to estimate CDS spreads and demonstrates that both financial and macroeconomic factors affect sovereign systemic and idiosyncratic risk. The proposed credit assessment and ratings schemes could supplement or potentially replace the credit ratings issued by the Big 3 ratings agencies.
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