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1 – 10 of 612Mohsen Mohammadi, Mohammad Rahim Eivazi and Jafar Sajjadi
The purpose of this paper is threefold: to classify wildcards into three particular types sharing similar characteristics; use the Fuzzy TOPSIS as a new method in foresight to…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is threefold: to classify wildcards into three particular types sharing similar characteristics; use the Fuzzy TOPSIS as a new method in foresight to turn qualitative ideas into quantitative ones; and apply a combination of Fuzzy TOPSIS and a panel of experts to prioritize weak signals.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the authors classify wildcards into three particular types which share similar character: natural wildcards, artificial wildcards (Degree 1) and artificial wildcards (Degree 2). Wildcards point to unexpected and surprising events including important results that can form watershed in the development of a specific trend. In addition, the authors present a Fuzzy TOPSIS model which can be used in various cases to prioritize a number of weak signals and put them in order, so that the most important ones are likely to yield the wildcard in the future
Findings
The authors presented a classification of wildcards with the same characteristics being natural wildcards, artificial wildcards (Degree 1) and artificial wildcards (Degree 2). The authors also prioritized the weak signals to deal with the most important ones and take appropriate action in advance so as to minimize possible damages and maximize the benefits of potential wildcards in an uncertain environment.
Originality/value
In this paper, the authors report on the prioritizing of weak signals by applying Fuzzy TOPSIS and classify wildcards. This is significant because, by identifying the most important weak signals, appropriate actions can be taken in the future if necessary. The paper should be of interest to readers in the area of participatory foresight.
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A generic foresight process framework is outlined, based on prior independent work by Mintzberg, Horton and Slaughter. The framework was developed as part of work carried out by…
Abstract
A generic foresight process framework is outlined, based on prior independent work by Mintzberg, Horton and Slaughter. The framework was developed as part of work carried out by the author during the introduction of foresight into the formal strategic planning of a public‐sector university in Australia. The framework recognises several distinct phases, leading from the initial gathering of information, through to the production of outputs intended as input into the more familiar activities of strategy development and strategic planning. The framework is also useful as a diagnostic tool for examining how foresight work and strategy are undertaken, as well as a design aid for customised foresight projects and processes. Some observations and reflections are made on lessons learned from a two‐and‐a‐half year engagement as an organisationally‐based foresight practitioner.
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Roslina Othman and Nor Sahlawaty Halim
The aims of this study were to identify the retrieval features for online databases; difficulties faced by users; and retrieval features expected by users. A total of 25 databases…
Abstract
The aims of this study were to identify the retrieval features for online databases; difficulties faced by users; and retrieval features expected by users. A total of 25 databases were surveyed and 40 users were interviewed after the training sessions. Common retrieval features included Boolean operators, phrase searching, match of exact words or phrases, field specific and limit fields searches, truncation, and wildcard. Even though features are offered in many systems, their interpretation and implementation are different. Unique features included lateral searching, density and frequency of terms, reference link, and searching via table of content. The expected features included relevance feedback and term weighting other than those already offered by ACM Digital Library and IEEE Xplore. Such expectations were influenced by the users' background in ICT. Difficulties included application of the retrieval features in searching. Database providers must include the expected features, synonyms linked to terms in the thesaurus, and extensive search examples.
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CHINA: Xi's health represents a wildcard risk
PAKISTAN: Musharraf exit would remove wildcard
INTERNATIONAL: Nationalism is a clear risk to OECD GDP
Details
DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES218441
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Steffen Merkel, Sascha L. Schmidt and Dominik Schreyer
The purpose of this paper is to explore the future of professional soccer by 2025. Scientific foresight studies on this industry do not yet exist despite its current position at a…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore the future of professional soccer by 2025. Scientific foresight studies on this industry do not yet exist despite its current position at a crossroads: toward further exploitation of profit potential? Or clear commitment to the traditional European Model of Sport?
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conducted a Delphi-based scenario study. In total, 62 high-level experts from sport, business, and society evaluated the probability of occurrence, impact, and desirability of 15 future projections over at least two rounds. The resulting 5,940 quantitative judgments and 670 qualitative comments were condensed into probable scenarios and surprising wildcards.
Findings
Two probable scenarios for European professional soccer by 2025 exist: in an extrapolation scenario, clubs will reap long-term gains from fulfilling public demands regarding stadium security, competitive balance, and social engagement. The less likely alternative is an extensive commercialization, including a short-term exploitation of all imaginable income sources, such as virtually augmented stadiums, financial investors, and league-owned broadcasting channels.
Research limitations/implications
The findings are primarily based on qualitative research and an all-German sample. Further studies could incorporate additional quantitative data or might survey an international panel to increase predictive accuracy.
Originality/value
The paper is novel in that it examines a yet unaddressed research gap – the future of professional soccer – with a common scientific foresight method that is already established in sport management research – the Delphi technique.
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Rekha Raju, Manish Kumar and Manoj Changat
The purpose of this study is to show how scenario-based forecasting can give a better understanding of future commercial potential of a newly developed technology. This study aims…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to show how scenario-based forecasting can give a better understanding of future commercial potential of a newly developed technology. This study aims to bridge the existing gaps in technology commercialization process for various projects supported under innovation support schemes in India.
Design/methodology/approach
The scope of this study is to understand the commercial potential and future deployment prospect of “sun direct hot water system (SDHWS)”. Scenarios have been drawn using “cone of plausibility” method and the commercial potential forecasted under different scenarios using arithmetic and linear regression forecasting tool.
Findings
The SDHWS is an incremental innovation but has great potential to overcome major constraints and barriers associated with existing solar water heater (SWH) technologies. Among the three scenarios drawn, plausible scenario is most likely to happen in future. The SDHWS is technically and economically capable of replacing existing conventional systems of SWHs.
Research limitations/implications
The study is limited to developing alternate qualitative scenarios and, further, an attempt to quantify the commercial potential. Various assumptions have been taken because of non-availability of past data on SDHWS technology.
Originality/value
Scenario-based forecasting to understand commercial potential for innovative technology is a new approach. The adoption of such insight and analysis would brighten the chance of SDHWS technology to reach the market.
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The purpose of this article is to examine the nature and type of methods used in futures studies and foresight work which are explicitly concerned with creating “forward views”…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this article is to examine the nature and type of methods used in futures studies and foresight work which are explicitly concerned with creating “forward views” and/or “images of the future” (“prospective” methods).
Design/methodology/approach
A new analytical technique, “mode‐level analysis”, is introduced and described, based on a classification of “modes” of futures thinking and levels of “depth” of interpretive frameworks. By choosing both a set of thinking modes and a series of interpretive levels as a basis, prospective methods may be analyzed in terms of which mode(s) and what level(s) they operate with or at.
Findings
Two modes of thinking and five levels of depth are chosen for this analysis. The resulting schema is used to classify such methods as: wildcards, forecasting, “trend breaks”, visioning, backcasting, and alternative histories and counterfactuals. An analysis is also carried out on the method of “scenarios”, revealing a variety of different approaches operating at multiple levels of depth. The historical development of prospective methods is also discussed.
Practical implications
Mode‐level analysis can be generalized to any number of modes or levels, depending on the application, context or objectives of the analyst. It may be used by academics for interest's sake and for teaching students, and by practitioners as both a design tool and a diagnostic one.
Originality/value
This paper introduces a new technique for classifying prospective methods, and may help lead to ideas for the creation of new methods.
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The tremendous storage capacity of the CD‐ROM has generated the need for sophisticated search software capable of handling large files. Software previously developed for mainframe…
Abstract
The tremendous storage capacity of the CD‐ROM has generated the need for sophisticated search software capable of handling large files. Software previously developed for mainframe computers, laser disk applications, information retrieval of textual files on IBM‐PCs, and other functions, is being modified to meet these needs. Other software is being specifically written for CD‐ROM applications. Vendors of significant information retrieval products are identified, and the characteristics of twelve packages are compared.