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Article
Publication date: 31 August 2010

Hsin‐Ning Su, Pei‐Chun Lee and Benjamin J.C. Yuan

The purpose of this paper is to create a vision and obtain a consensus on Taiwan's nanotechnology industry in three dimensions (the 2007 situation, the R&D maturation

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to create a vision and obtain a consensus on Taiwan's nanotechnology industry in three dimensions (the 2007 situation, the R&D maturation time, and the 2020 scenario). It then seeks to foster a set of development strategies for Taiwan in 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

A Delphi‐based foresight study together with an expert discussion meeting has been conducted to obtain a consensus for Taiwan nanotechnology in 2020.

Findings

The paper provides the results of the first Delphi‐based survey on Taiwan nanotechnology development. The Nano Bio Medicine domain has greater maturity; the maturation time of most techniques will be 2010‐2015; Nanocomposite Material Technique, Nano Optoelectronic and Optical Communication, and Nano Storage show relatively high competitiveness. Self‐R&D and Technology introduced from overseas are the major development methods in 2020.

Practical implications

The paper is of interest to foresight practitioners and policy makers at the industrial and government levels in Taiwan.

Originality/value

The paper is the first publication to identify Taiwan's 2020 nanotechnology development by Delphi‐based foresight investigation.

Details

Foresight, vol. 12 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 24 December 2021

Bamidele Temitope Arijeloye, Isaac Olaniyi Aje and Ayodeji Emmanuel Oke

The purpose of the study is to elicit risk factors that are peculiar to public-private partnership (PPP)-procured mass housing in Nigeria from the expert perspectives in…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to elicit risk factors that are peculiar to public-private partnership (PPP)-procured mass housing in Nigeria from the expert perspectives in ensuring the success of the scheme thereby reducing housing deficit in the country.

Design/methodology/approach

The risk inherent in construction projects had been established through literature in general. The risk in PPP projects is emerging because of the recent acceptance of the procurement option by governments all over the globe. The Nigerian Government has also adopted the procurement option in bridging the housing deficit in the country. This study, therefore, conducts a Delphi survey on the probability of risk occurrence peculiar to PPP mass housing projects (MHPs) in Nigeria. Pragmatic research approach through the mixed method of both quantitative and qualitative methods was adopted for this study. The quantitative method adopts the administration of questionnaires through the Delphi survey, whereas the qualitative method used interviews with the respondents. A two-stage Delphi questionnaire was administered to construction practitioners that cut across academics, the public and the private sectors by adopting convenient sampling techniques and following the Delphi principles and procedures. A total of 63 risk factors were submitted to the expert to rank on a Likert scale of 7 and any risk factors that the mean item score (MIS) falls below the grading scale of the five-point benchmark is deemed not necessary a risk factor associated with PPP MHPs and thereby expunged from the second round of the Delphi Survey. The interview was subsequently applied to the respondents to substantiate the risk factors that are peculiar to PPP-procured mass housing in the study area.

Findings

The findings show that risk factors such as maintenance frequent than expected, life of facility shorter than anticipated and maintenance cost higher than expected fall below 5.0 benchmark with MIS of 4.64 and 4.55 indicating that the risk factors are not peculiar to PPP mass housing in Nigeria.

Research limitations/implications

The implication for practise of this research is that these risk factors provide the PPP stakeholders with the comprehensive checklists that can aid in developing PPP risk assessment guidelines in the sector though both partners should be aware of the dynamic nature of risk because new ones might be emerging.

Originality/value

The authors hereby declare that the research findings are a product of a thorough research conducted in the study area and have not to be submitted or published by another person or publisher and due acknowledgement was made where necessary.

Details

Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1726-0531

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Article
Publication date: 14 November 2016

Abayomi O. Ibiyemi, Yasmin Mohd Adnan and Md Nasir Daud

The study aims to build up knowledge for collateral exploration of the classical Delphi survey method for assessing the industrial sustainability-related correction factor…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to build up knowledge for collateral exploration of the classical Delphi survey method for assessing the industrial sustainability-related correction factor using a real field study in Nigeria.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper elicits the character and the operational approaches using an example study to provide a critical review of the method. It estimates the correction factor for appraisal purposes by transforming expert opinion into a valid group consensus.

Findings

The work considers the specific parameters of the method, design and analysis for interpretation to prove the reliability and the validity for the research results. Moreover, it emphasises that the validity of the traditional Delphi research demands cautious theoretical and practical applications by the coordinating researcher. The paper establishes the current validity and effectiveness of the classical Delphi method of foresight and streamlines their efficient implementation for theory building despite its numerous weaknesses.

Originality/value

It explores desirable futures for the method while analysing what is possible and probable.

Details

foresight, vol. 18 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 28 January 2019

Xiangyun Du, Salah Eldin Kassab, Ayad M. Al-Moslih, Marwan Farouk Abu-Hijleh, Hossam Hamdy and Farhan Sachal Cyprian

The purpose of this paper is to identify essential profession-related competencies, clinical knowledge and skills that medical students should develop in the early stages…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to identify essential profession-related competencies, clinical knowledge and skills that medical students should develop in the early stages of their education for future professional practice.

Design/methodology/approach

A literature review and workshop resulted in a list of 46 crucial profession-related competencies. The first round of the modified Delphi survey (feedback questionnaire) involved experts who identified 26 items (via a Likert scale). The second round of the modified Delphi survey by faculty members highlighted ten items. Statistical analysis yielded four domains with items clustered as follows: interpersonal competencies (communication and collaboration), cognitive skills (problem solving, critical thinking and reflectivity), work-related skills (planning and time management) and professionalism (integrity, sense of responsibility, respect and empathy).

Findings

In conclusion, the results of this study provide insights and implications surrounding the competencies that are essential for assessment and facilitation in the early stages of a medical curriculum. The study also predicts the challenges of facilitating and assessing these competencies, as pointed out in recent literature. In general, outcomes of the study suggest that instead of categorizing the competencies, it is more meaningful to take a holistic and integrated approach in order to conceptualize, facilitate and assess these competencies in context of the complexities of real-life situations.

Originality/value

Ten items were identified as essential profession-related competencies that should be incorporated during the early stages of medical education. Six out of the ten items were agreed upon by all participants of the study: collaboration, communication, problem solving, integrity, responsibility and respect. This list aligns with the existing literature and graduate attributes internationally. Items related to planning and time management, critical thinking and reflectivity were regarded as specifically lacking and important areas of improvement for Arabic students. Divergence on items of empathy and medical ethics were observed among international and local panels, with the main concern, raised by medical faculty, being how to facilitate and assess these items. The competencies identified mandate reforms in the medical school curricula in an attempt to implement essential skills early in medical student’s career.

Details

Journal of Applied Research in Higher Education, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2050-7003

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Article
Publication date: 24 February 2012

Kuniko Urashima, Yoshiko Yokoo and Hiroshi Nagano

The 9th S&T Foresight for Japan has recently been completed. A key element of this Foresight is that S&T is now expected to indicate solutions for broad social issues and

Abstract

Purpose

The 9th S&T Foresight for Japan has recently been completed. A key element of this Foresight is that S&T is now expected to indicate solutions for broad social issues and global issues (climate change, etc.) including those that address Japan's most urgent challenges (e.g. energy, aging population). This mission‐oriented foresight is novel for the Japanese, since prior foresight exercises have been done with a technology focus. This paper aims to address how the new view of foresight – as more than mere technical potentials – has resulted in several types of foresight impacts, which are noted in the main text.

Design/methodology/approach

The 9th Delphi Survey involved two types of interdisciplinary perspectives related to Japan's social future (Safe, Secure, Cooperation and Collaboration) and 12 S&T fields. The committees discussed what could emerge within 30 years and involved 26 domains of social expertise and 140 specialists.

Findings

The 9th S&T Foresight investigation consists of an integration of three foresight methods – Delphi survey, scenario writing, and capability of local regions for green innovation – regarding sustainable development. Each method provides clear messages, and has unique impacts.

Originality/value

Overall, a major foresight impact has been to enable a broader view of innovation to prevail in this ninth foresight, where social‐scenario insights and more socially adaptive policies complement the traditional S&T focus developed by Delphi surveys 1‐8. This shifted the policy discourse toward societal innovation from technical innovation.

Details

Foresight, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 16 August 2021

Lekan Damilola Ojo, Deji Rufus Ogunsemi and Olusola Ogunsina

The Nigerian construction industry is bedeviled with poor project performance and outcomes which value management (VM) could address if applied. The application of VM on…

Abstract

Purpose

The Nigerian construction industry is bedeviled with poor project performance and outcomes which value management (VM) could address if applied. The application of VM on Nigerian construction projects is very minimal due to certain obstacles, namely, lack of VM experts, paucity of knowledge on the techniques, etc., which inhibits the adoption into the construction industry. Therefore, this study aims to develop a conceptual framework of the adoption of VM on construction projects in a typical developing economy.

Design/methodology/approach

This study engaged 15 selected VM experts in two rounds of Delphi survey to develop a conceptual framework of VM adoption. The method of data analysis includes mean score, standard deviation, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, chi-square (χ2) test, interrater agreement analysis and significant level analysis. The developed conceptual framework was sent to a team of local and international VM experts for validation.

Findings

This study reveals that the adoption of VM requires the collective effort of relevant stakeholders in the construction industry. The framework developed presents individual and collective activities to be undertaken by the stakeholders. The activities include training, legislation, government-funded research, etc. Thus, the adoption of innovative management methodology like VM requires the collaboration of academics, construction professional bodies and government parastatals. This will assist in the judicious use of limited construction resources and boost the relevance of the Nigerian construction industry among developing nations and in the global construction market.

Originality/value

This study used the opinions of few construction professionals that can be regarded as VM experts in Nigeria, as against engaging a pool of construction professionals who may not be knowledgeable in VM process. Engaging the few VM experts in the Nigerian construction industry is important to have a valid basis for drawing conclusion, as large questionnaire survey could be possibly filled by inexperienced or unqualified respondents if stringent criteria are not considered at the outset of this study.

Details

Construction Innovation , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1471-4175

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Article
Publication date: 29 January 2007

Petra Jung‐Erceg, Krsto Pandza, Heidi Armbruster and Carsten Dreher

This paper sets out to discuss the results of a specific part of a Europe‐wide Delphi study that considers issues of absorptive capacity in European manufacturing. Owing…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper sets out to discuss the results of a specific part of a Europe‐wide Delphi study that considers issues of absorptive capacity in European manufacturing. Owing to the importance to competitiveness of increasing innovative capabilities in manufacturing it is highly relevant to explore how a wide community of manufacturing experts experience the phenomenon of absorptive capacity and sense future developments.

Design/methodology/approach

A two round Delphi method was designed in which more than 3,000 experts from 22 European countries assessed 101 statements. This paper discusses eight statements focused on the issue of absorptive capacity.

Findings

The results show a general consensus about the influence of different inter‐firm relationships in acquiring external knowledge and a diversified knowledge structure for assimilating the acquired knowledge. The study also indicates some potential challenges and contradictions in managing inter‐firm relationships and knowledge diversity as well as perceived barriers for future developments of absorptive capacity.

Research limitations/implications

Delphi survey is an empirical method subject to the limitation of testing or inductively building theoretical concepts.

Practical implications

The results of the Delphi study are predominantly centred on policy implication and on informing strategic decision‐making at manufacturing firms.

Originality/value

This paper discusses one of the biggest Delphi surveys ever conducted in Europe. Its comprehensiveness increases the value of the results.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 107 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

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Article
Publication date: 9 May 2016

Heiko A. von der Gracht and Inga-Lena Darkow

There is consensus among experts that the design of future supply chains will have to focus more strongly on environmental concerns. Sustainability will play a major role…

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2782

Abstract

Purpose

There is consensus among experts that the design of future supply chains will have to focus more strongly on environmental concerns. Sustainability will play a major role within the business and has an impact especially on the distant future. Thus, supply chain executives are challenged in designing sustainable supply chains for the future. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors develop expert-based scenarios, which describe how future supply chains could evolve by 2030. The authors focus on the transportation and logistics industry’s perspective to provide an industry-internal view. The data collection is based on an internet-based Delphi survey. Overall, 48 top executives from 20 countries, representing academic, governmental, and industrial perspectives, participated in the survey.

Findings

The authors operationalized the research question into five concrete sub-topics relevant for investigation: energy and emissions, consumer behaviour, future transport modes, design of future supply chains, and innovation. The authors derive five Delphi-based scenarios defined by clusters of their impact and expected probability: measurement and control of CO2-emissions; integrated low energy logistics systems; business-as-usual logistics; no-frills logistics and alternative fuels. Each cluster contributes differently to supply chain strategy.

Originality/value

The authors address the major issues and challenges experts expect regarding future supply chains in an energy-constrained, low-carbon world. Five scenario clusters evolved for supply chain strategy development. Finally, the authors make recommendations towards strategic planning in the transportation and logistics industry.

Details

The International Journal of Logistics Management, vol. 27 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0957-4093

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2003

Penelope M. Mullen

The last 20 years have seen increasing interest in the use of Delphi in a wide range of health‐care applications. However, this use has been accompanied by attempts to…

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4583

Abstract

The last 20 years have seen increasing interest in the use of Delphi in a wide range of health‐care applications. However, this use has been accompanied by attempts to codify and define a “true Delphi”. Many authors take a narrow view of the purpose of Delphi and/or advocate a single prescriptive approach to the conduct of a Delphi study. However, as early as 1975, Linstone and Turoff pointed to the danger of attempting to define Delphi as one would immediately encounter a study that violated that definition. Through critical examination of some of the controversies and misunderstandings that surround Delphi, this paper aims to dispel some of the myths and demonstrates the wide scope and potential of this versatile approach.

Details

Journal of Health Organization and Management, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7266

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Article
Publication date: 22 February 2013

Hai‐Chen Lin, Te‐Yi Chan and Cheng‐Hua Ien

To anticipate science and technology (S&T) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization, this paper

Abstract

Purpose

To anticipate science and technology (S&T) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization, this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories and interactions by mapping and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state‐of‐the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering, analyzing and visualizing the path for technology development and transformation.

Design/methodology/approach

Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan, South Korea and China, and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes. Technology interactions can be identified through a causal effect analysis during the mapping, and the results among selected countries are cross‐compared and visualized in an aggregated view.

Findings

By this standard mapping taxonomy and structured analysis, future technology themes in strategic foresight reports from countries in focus are systematically mapped and integrated for viewing future technology options and interactions. Similarities and discrepancies for prospecting the future technology trajectory among these countries are also identified.

Research limitations/implications

It would be a significant contribution if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports. This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions. Also, this classification framework can provide a bridge for linking with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality and help in identifying the gaps between the probable future changes in S&T and the current capability.

Originality/value

The integrative method in this research provides a way to combine both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence by utilizing the results deriving from the former as targets for analysis and the analytic practice deriving from the latter to identify the possible competitive or cooperative landscapes in the future.

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