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Book part
Publication date: 2 September 2021

Ann Ahmadi

Abstract

Details

A Guide to Healthcare Facility Dress Rehearsal Simulation Planning: Simplifying the Complex
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-555-5

Book part
Publication date: 29 October 2018

Irina V. Gashenko, Irina N. Bogataya, Irina V. Orobinskaya and Yulia S. Zima

The purpose of this chapter is to compile the expected scenarios of development of digital economy in modern Russia and determine the essence and peculiarities of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this chapter is to compile the expected scenarios of development of digital economy in modern Russia and determine the essence and peculiarities of the optimal scenario implementation.

Methodology

The research is based on the Theory of Games, which is used for comparison of expected scenarios of development of digital economy in modern Russia. A criterion of optimality of the scenario of development of digital economy in modern Russia in this work is effectiveness of its implementation, determined by comparing the results and expenditures in view of probability of each possible sub-scenario.

Results

The performed scenario analysis of development of digital economy in modern Russia showed that the most effective and, therefore, optimal scenario is the one that envisages implementation of the offered new model of a well-balanced digital economy. Despite the fact that probability was determined only for sub-scenarios, within each distinguished scenario, (for determining confidence intervals of the values of indicators) which were not compared with the level of their probability, the given optimal scenario envisages the largest changes compared to the current set course of the formation of digital economy in Russia and hence is the least probable.

Recommendations

The established optimal expected scenario of development of digital economy, which envisages application of its new well-balanced model, is recommended for practical implementation in modern Russia. The given quantitative characteristics of the optimal scenario of development of digital economy in modern Russia could and should be recommended for usage as the basis for developing practical recommendations for monitoring and control of implementation of the optimization model of digital economy in modern Russia.

Abstract

Details

A Guide to Healthcare Facility Dress Rehearsal Simulation Planning: Simplifying the Complex
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-555-5

Book part
Publication date: 29 October 2018

Aleksei V. Bogoviz, Dina N. Savinskaya, Alfira M. Kumratova, Tatiana B. Fonina and Naimdzhon M. Ibragimov

The purpose of this chapter is to compile the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system, determine the role of scenario that…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this chapter is to compile the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system, determine the role of scenario that envisages practical implementation of the new model of a well-balanced information economy among these scenarios according to the criterion of effectiveness and probability, and select and substantiate the optimal scenario.

Methodology

Due to the absence of initial statistical information that allows characterizing the basic conditions for further development of information economy in the global economic system, the method of stochastic modeling is used for describing forecast scenarios in this chapter. This method is used due to its applicability for forecast analysis in the conditions of uncertainty. With the help of this method, qualitative description of the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system is accompanied by selected quantitative characteristics, which are conventional, that is, they are given for comparing various scenarios, not for specifying a precise value of estimate indicators. Comparison of the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system is conducted using comparative analysis method.

Results

It is concluded that the most effective and optimal scenario is the one that supposes implementation of the offered new model of a well-balanced information economy – despite its lower probability as compared to the other scenarios.

Recommendations

The set optimal expected scenario of development of information economy, which envisages application of its new well-balanced model, is recommended for practical implementation in the modern economic systems.

Article
Publication date: 10 August 2022

Sandra Haggenmüller, Patricia Oehlschläger, Uta Herbst and Markus Voeth

This study aims to provide probable future developments in the form of holistic scenarios for business negotiations. In recent years, negotiation research did not put a…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to provide probable future developments in the form of holistic scenarios for business negotiations. In recent years, negotiation research did not put a lot of emphasis on external changes. Consequently, current challenges and trends are scarcely integrated, making it difficult to support negotiation practice perspectively.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper applies the structured, multi-method approach of scenario analysis. To examine the future space of negotiations, this combines qualitative and quantitative measures to base our analysis on negotiation experts’ assessments, estimations and visions of the negotiation future.

Findings

The results comprise an overview of five negotiation scenarios in the year 2030 and of their individual drivers. The five revealed scenarios are: digital intelligence, business as usual, powerful network – the route to collaboration, powerful network – the route to predominance and system crash.

Originality/value

The scenario analysis is a suitable approach that enables to relate various factors of the negotiation environment to negotiations themselves and allows an examination of future changes in buyer–seller negotiations and the creation of possible future scenarios. The identified scenarios provide an orientation for business decisions in the field of negotiation.

Details

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0885-8624

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 July 2022

Georgia Zara, Sara Veggi, Francesco Ianì and Monica Bucciarelli

Studies on the moral judgment of offenders conducted within a neo-Kolhbergian framework found that offenders exhibit more primitive thinking about moral issues compared to…

Abstract

Purpose

Studies on the moral judgment of offenders conducted within a neo-Kolhbergian framework found that offenders exhibit more primitive thinking about moral issues compared to nonoffenders. The purpose of this study is to explore, within the mental model theory, the role of reasoning in moral judgments of offenders, considering both similarities and differences with nonoffenders.

Design/methodology/approach

A series of moral scenarios were randomly presented to both offenders and nonoffenders. Participants were asked to report their reactions for each scenario. Their reactions were coded and assessed.

Findings

Findings show that moral judgments rely on the same reasoning processes in both offenders and nonoffenders: a moral scenario, in which propositions related to norms and values were manipulated, led to a scenario that generated a moral conflict (Study 1), but offenders had more intuitions about immoral scenarios than nonoffenders (Study 2). Moreover, the results partially confirm the prediction that offenders are more likely to deliberately reason about scenarios that described those crimes similar to the ones they committed (Study 3).

Originality/value

This study highlights the importance of understanding that moral judgments in both offenders and nonoffenders rely on the same reasoning processes, even though offenders tend to reason more on scenarios near to the crimes they committed. This has practical implications for interventions in so far as it could have an effect in how prosocial functioning could be promoted.

Details

Journal of Criminal Psychology, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2009-3829

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 July 2022

Tianyue Feng, Lihao Liu, Xingyu Xing and Junyi Chen

The purpose of this paper is to search for the critical-scenarios of autonomous vehicles (AVs) quickly and comprehensively, which is essential for verification and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to search for the critical-scenarios of autonomous vehicles (AVs) quickly and comprehensively, which is essential for verification and validation (V&V).

Design/methodology/approach

The author adopted the index F1 to quantitative critical-scenarios' coverage of the search space and proposed the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) to enhance exploration ability for higher coverage. Compared with the particle swarm optimization (PSO), there were three improvements. In the initial phase, the Latin hypercube sampling method was introduced for a uniform distribution of particles. In the iteration phase, the neighborhood operator was adapted to explore more modals with the particles divided into groups. In the convergence phase, the convergence judgment and restart strategy were used to explore the search space by avoiding local convergence. Compared with the Monte Carlo method (MC) and PSO, experiments on the artificial function and critical-scenarios search were carried out to verify the efficiency and the application effect of the method.

Findings

Results show that IPSO can search for multimodal critical-scenarios comprehensively, with a stricter threshold and fewer samples in the experiment on critical-scenario search, the coverage of IPSO is 14% higher than PSO and 40% higher than MC.

Originality/value

The critical-scenarios' coverage of the search space is firstly quantified by the index F1, and the proposed method has higher search efficiency and coverage for the critical-scenarios search of AVs, which shows application potential for V&V.

Details

Journal of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-9802

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 March 2021

Abhishek Gupta, Dwijendra Nath Dwivedi and Ashish Jain

Transaction monitoring system set up by financial institutions is one of the most used ways to track money laundering and terrorist financing activities. While being…

Abstract

Purpose

Transaction monitoring system set up by financial institutions is one of the most used ways to track money laundering and terrorist financing activities. While being effective to a large extent, the system generates very high false positives. With evolving patterns of financial transactions, it also needs effective mechanism for scenario fine-tuning. The purpose of this paper is to highlight quantitative method for optimizing scenarios in money laundering context. While anomaly detection and unsupervised learning can identify huge patterns of false negatives, that can reveal new patterns, for existing scenarios, business generally rely on judgment/data analysis-based threshold finetuning of existing scenario. The objective of such exercises is productivity rate enhancement.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the authors propose an approach called linear/non-linear optimization on threshold finetuning. This traditional operations research technique has been often used for many optimization problems. Current problem of threshold finetuning for scenario has two key features that warrant linear optimization. First, scenario-based suspicious transaction reporting (STR) cases and overall customer level catch rate has a very high overlap, i.e. more than one scenario captures same customer with different degree of abnormal behavior. This implies that scenarios can be better coordinated to catch more non-overlapping customers. Second, different customer segments have differing degree of transaction behavior; hence, segmenting and then reducing slack (redundant catch of suspect) can result in better productivity rate (defined as productive alerts divided by total alerts) in a money laundering context.

Findings

Theresults show that by implementing the optimization technique, the productivity rate can be improved. This is done through two drivers. First, the team gets to know the best possible combination of threshold across scenarios for maximizing the STR observations better coverage of STR – fine-tuned thresholds are able to better cover the suspected transactions as compared to traditional approaches. Second, there is reduction of redundancy/slack margins on thresholds, thereby improving the overall productivity rate. The experiments focused on six scenario combinations, resulted in reduction of 5.4% of alerts and 1.6% of unique customers for same number of STR capture.

Originality/value

The authors propose an approach called linear/non-linear optimization on threshold finetuning, as very little work is done on optimizing scenarios itself, which is the most widely used practice to monitor enterprise-wide anti-money laundering solutions. This proves that by adding a layer of mathematical optimization, financial institutions can additionally save few million dollars, without compromising on their STR capture capability. This hopefully will go a long way in leveraging artificial intelligence for further making financial institutions more efficient in controlling financial crimes and save some hard-earned dollars.

Details

Journal of Money Laundering Control, vol. 25 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1368-5201

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 June 2022

Kane Smith and Gurpreet Dhillon

Cyberstalking is a growing threat to society, and policymakers should address it utilizing the input of constituents. For this, two key components are required: actionable…

Abstract

Purpose

Cyberstalking is a growing threat to society, and policymakers should address it utilizing the input of constituents. For this, two key components are required: actionable objectives informed by the values of society and the means of implementation to maximize their potential benefits. The process should be guided by the constituent's values, requiring the elicitation of intrinsic values as individual preferences that are extrapolated to society at large.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors utilize Keeney's (1990) public value forum and Sen's (1999) social choice theory (Sen, 1999) to elicit and convert these intrinsic values to serve as the basis for developing public policy to prevent cyberstalking.

Findings

The results demonstrate a strong desire by participants to have clear regulations, policies and procedures developed in concert with industry and enforced by the government that elucidate required protections against cyberstalking in combination with strong technical controls. These policies should guide technical control development and implementation, but leave ultimate control in the hands of technology users to decide what controls they want to utilize.

Originality/value

This study is the first to utilize Keeney's (1988) public value forum in the context of cyberstalking to develop quantitative measures regarding technology users' desired cybersecurity protections against cyberstalking. The authors provide a decision-making framework for policymakers to develop a new policy based on the input of their constituents in a manner that maximizes their potential utility and ultimate benefit.

Details

Internet Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1066-2243

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 June 2022

Reza Hafezi and Pardis Asemi

COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced human society; statistics have shown many countries ended 2020 with minimal or even negative economic growth. This pandemic…

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Abstract

Purpose

COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced human society; statistics have shown many countries ended 2020 with minimal or even negative economic growth. This pandemic proved that development biased to economic issues without considering other factors such as social and environmental is not sustainable, and it can even be the source of the crisis. This paper aims to discover plausible alternative futures at the macrolevel where nations, businesses and societies can change routines, and approach to a better peaceful future.

Design/methodology/approach

To accomplish this, trends emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic are studied and some uncertainties are identified. At the intersections of uncertainties, scenarios are shaped based on the Global Business Network (GBN) methodology. GBN helps to draw macrolevel images about plausible futures. The main uncertainties rose from three different but interconnected natures including: approach to the globalization (social perspective), approach to the concept of value (business perspective) and approach to the governance (states/governance perspective). Each uncertainty can take two extreme alternatives; consequently, eight scenario spaces with different probability are formed by the intersection of alternatives. Then the most favorable scenario is introduced and strategies are proposed to achieve a better future.

Findings

In the current paradigm in which countries will sacrifice the environment for economic growth in the race to rapidly rebuild their economy, concerns for the post-COVID-19 will continue to mount. While, in the favorable scenario, value creation is sought in sustainable development. This means deviation from a favorable scenario to achieve short-term goals is completely predictable. Although we have learned that the COVID-19 pandemic is controllable and manageable as time goes by, but no effort or commitment has been seen in the governments to eradicate the COVID-19 sources (at least till today).

Originality/value

The main originality of this research appeared in the practical aspect. This paper analyzes and projects scenarios at the global level and studies challenges that societies, governments and businesses are facing in the modern world with biased development paradigms. Moreover, different viewpoints to deal with global crisis are assessed and criticized.

Details

foresight, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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