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This survey explores the application of real options theory to the field of health economics. The integration of options theory offers a valuable framework to address these challenges, providing insights into healthcare investments, policy analysis and patient care pathways.

This research employs the real options theory, a financial concept, to delve into health economics challenges. Through a systematic approach, three distinct models rooted in this theory are crafted and analyzed. Firstly, the study examines the value of investing in emerging health technology, factoring in future advantages, associated costs and unpredictability. The second model is patient-centric, evaluating the choice between immediate treatment switch and waiting for more clarity, while also weighing the associated risks. Lastly, the research assesses pandemic-related government policies, emphasizing the importance of delaying decisions in the face of uncertainties, thereby promoting data-driven policymaking.

Three different real options models are presented in this study to illustrate their applicability and value in aiding decision-makers. (1) The first evaluates investments in new technology, analyzing future benefits, discount rates and benefit volatility to determine investment value. (2) In the second model, a patient has the option of switching treatments now or waiting for more information before optimally switching treatments. However, waiting has its risks, such as disease progression. By modeling the potential benefits and risks of both options, and factoring in the time value, this model aids doctors and patients in making informed decisions based on a quantified assessment of potential outcomes. (3) The third model concerns pandemic policy: governments can end or prolong lockdowns. While awaiting more data on the virus might lead to economic and societal strain, the model emphasizes the economic value of deferring decisions under uncertainty.

This research provides a quantified perspective on various decisions in healthcare, from investments in new technology to treatment choices for patients to government decisions regarding pandemics. By applying real options theory, stakeholders can make more evidence-driven decisions.

Decisions about patient care pathways and pandemic policies have direct societal implications. For instance, choices regarding the prolongation or ending of lockdowns can lead to economic and societal strain.

The originality of this study lies in its application of real options theory, a concept from finance, to the realm of health economics, offering novel insights and analytical tools for decision-makers in the healthcare sector.

This study aims to predict overnight stays in Italy at tourist accommodation facilities through a nonlinear, single factor, stochastic model called CIR#. The contribution of this study is twofold: in terms of forecast accuracy and in terms of parsimony (both from the perspective of the data and the complexity of the modeling), especially when a regular pattern in the time series is disrupted. This study shows that the CIR# not only performs better than the considered baseline models but also has a much lower error than other additional models or approaches reported in the literature.

Typically, tourism demand tends to follow regular trends, such as low and high seasons on a quarterly/monthly level and weekends and holidays on a daily level. The data set consists of nights spent in Italy at tourist accommodation establishments as collected on a monthly basis by Eurostat before and during the COVID-19 pandemic breaking regular patterns.

Traditional tourism demand forecasting models may face challenges when massive amounts of search intensity indices are adopted as tourism demand indicators. In addition, given the importance of accurate forecasts, many studies have proposed novel hybrid models or used various combinations of methods. Thus, although there are clear benefits in adopting more complex approaches, the risk is that of dealing with unwieldy models. To demonstrate how this approach can be fruitfully extended to tourism, the accuracy of the CIR# is tested by using standard metrics such as root mean squared errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error or average relative mean squared error.

The CIR# model is notably simpler than other models found in literature and does not rely on black box techniques such as those used in neural network (NN) or data science-based models. The carried analysis suggests that the CIR# model outperforms other reference predictions in terms of statistical significance of the error.

The proposed model stands out for being a viable option to the Holt–Winters (HW) model, particularly when dealing with irregular data.

The proposed model has demonstrated superiority even when compared to other models in the literature, and it can be especially useful for tourism stakeholders when making decisions in the presence of disruptions in data patterns.

The novelty lies in the fact that the proposed model is a valid alternative to the HW, especially when the data are not regular. In addition, compared to many existing models in the literature, the CIR# model is notably simpler and more transparent, avoiding the “black box” nature of NN and data science-based models.

一般来说, 旅游需求往往遵循规律的趋势, 例如季度/月的淡季和旺季, 以及日常的周末和假期。该数据集包括欧盟统计局在打破常规模式的2019冠状病毒病大流行之前和期间每月收集的在意大利旅游住宿设施度过的夜晚。

本研究旨在通过一个名为cir#的非线性单因素随机模型来预测意大利游客住宿设施的过夜住宿情况。这项研究的贡献是双重的:在预测准确性方面和在简洁方面(从数据和建模复杂性的角度来看), 特别是当时间序列中的规则模式被打乱时。我们表明, cir#不仅比考虑的基线模型表现更好, 而且比文献中报告的其他模型或方法具有更低的误差。

当大量搜索强度指标被作为旅游需求指标时, 传统的旅游需求预测模型将面临挑战。此外, 鉴于准确预测的重要性, 许多研究提出了新的混合模型或使用各种方法的组合。因此, 尽管采用更复杂的方法有明显的好处, 但风险在于处理难使用的模型。为了证明这种方法能有效地扩展到旅游业, 使用RMSE、MAE、MAPE或AvgReIMSE等标准指标来测试cir#的准确性。

cir#模型明显比文献中发现的其他模型简单, 并且不依赖于黑盒技术, 例如在神经网络或基于数据科学的模型中使用的技术。所进行的分析表明, cir#模型在误差的统计显著性方面优于其他参考预测。

这个模型作为Holt-Winters模型的一个拟议模型, 特别是在处理不规则数据时。

即使与文献中的其他模型相比, 所提出的模型也显示出优越性, 并且在数据模式中断时对旅游利益相关者做出决策特别有用。

创新之处在于所提出的模型是Holt-Winters模型的有效替代方案, 特别是当数据不规律时。此外, 与文献中的许多现有模型相比, cir#模型明显更简单、更透明, 避免了神经网络和基于数据科学的模型的“黑箱”性质。

Normalmente, la demanda turística tiende a seguir tendencias regulares, como temporadas altas y bajas a nivel trimestral/mensual y fines de semana y festivos a nivel diario. El conjunto de datos consiste en las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico recogidas mensualmente por Eurostat antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19, rompiendo los patrones regulares.

El presente estudio pretende predecir las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico mediante un modelo estocástico no lineal de un solo factor denominado CIR#. La contribución de este estudio es doble: en términos de precisión de la predicción y en términos de parsimonia (tanto desde la perspectiva de los datos como de la complejidad de la modelización), especialmente cuando un patrón regular en la serie temporal se ve interrumpido. Demostramos que el CIR# no sólo aplica mejor que los modelos de referencia considerados, sino que también tiene un error mucho menor que otros modelos o enfoques adicionales de los que se informa en la literatura.

Los modelos tradicionales de previsión de la demanda turística pueden enfrentarse a desafíos cuando se adoptan cantidades masivas de índices de intensidad de búsqueda como indicadores de la demanda turística. Además, dada la importancia de unas previsiones precisas, muchos estudios han propuesto modelos híbridos novedosos o han utilizado diversas combinaciones de métodos. Así pues, aunque la adopción de enfoques más complejos presenta ventajas evidentes, el riesgo es el de enfrentarse a modelos poco manejables. Para demostrar cómo este enfoque puede extenderse de forma fructífera al turismo, se comprueba la precisión del CIR# utilizando métricas estándar como RMSE, MAE, MAPE o AvgReIMSE.

El modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo que otros modelos encontrados en la literatura y no se basa en técnicas de caja negra como las utilizadas en los modelos basados en redes neuronales o en la ciencia de datos. El análisis realizado sugiere que el modelo CIR# supera a otras predicciones de referencia en términos de significación estadística del error.

El modelo propuesto destaca por ser una opción viable al modelo Holt-Winters, sobre todo cuando se trata de datos irregulares.

El modelo propuesto ha demostrado su superioridad incluso cuando se compara con otros modelos de la bibliografía, y puede ser especialmente útil para los agentes del sector turístico a la hora de tomar decisiones cuando se producen alteraciones en los patrones de datos.

La novedad radica en que el modelo propuesto es una alternativa válida al Holt-Winters especialmente cuando los datos no son regulares. Además, en comparación con muchos modelos existentes en la literatura, el modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo y transparente, evitando la naturaleza de “caja negra” de los modelos basados en redes neuronales y en ciencia de datos.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of data assets and how companies can assetize their data. Using the literature review methodology, the paper first summarizes the conceptual controversies over data assets in the existing literature. Subsequently, the paper defines the concept of data assets. Finally, keywords from the existing research literature are presented visually and a foundational framework for achieving data assetization is proposed.

This paper uses a systematic literature review approach to discuss the conceptual evolution and strategic imperatives of data assets. To establish a robust research methodology, this paper takes into account two main aspects. First, it conducts a comprehensive review of the existing literature on digital technology and data assets, which enables the derivation of an evolutionary path of data assets and the development of a clear and concise definition of the concept. Second, the paper uses Citespace, a widely used software for literature review, to examine the research framework of enterprise data assetization.

The paper offers pivotal insights into the realm of data assets. It highlights the changing perceptions of data assets with digital progression and addresses debates on data asset categorization, value attributes and ownership. The study introduces a definitive concept of data assets as electronically recorded data resources with real or potential value under legal parameters. Moreover, it delineates strategic imperatives for harnessing data assets, presenting a practical framework that charts the stages of “resource readiness, capacity building, and data application”, guiding businesses in optimizing their data throughout its lifecycle.

This paper comprehensively explores the issue of data assets, clarifying controversial concepts and categorizations and bridging gaps in the existing literature. The paper introduces a clear conceptualization of data assets, bridging the gap between academia and practice. In addition, the study proposes a strategic framework for data assetization. This study not only helps to promote a unified understanding among academics and professionals but also helps businesses to understand the process of data assetization.

This paper aims to critically examine the accounting and information systems literature to understand the changes that are occurring in the management accounting profession. The changes the authors are interested in are linked to technology-driven innovations in managerial decision-making and in organizational structures. In addition, the paper highlights research gaps and opportunities for future research.

The authors adopted a grounded theory literature review method (Wolfswinkel et al., 2013) to achieve the study’s aims.

The authors identified four research themes that describe the changes in the management accounting profession due to technology-driven innovations: structured vs unstructured data, human vs algorithm-driven decision-making, delineated vs blurred functional boundaries and hierarchical vs platform-based organizations. The authors also identified tensions mentioned in the literature for each research theme.

Previous studies display a rather narrow focus on the role of digital technologies in accounting work and new competences that management accountants require in the digital era. By contrast, the authors focus on the broader technology-driven shifts in organizational processes and structures, which vastly change how accounting information is collected, processed and analyzed internally to support managerial decision-making. Hence, the paper focuses on how management accountants can adapt and evolve as their organizations transition toward a digital environment.

The electromechanical brake system is leading the latest development trend in railway braking technology. The tolerance stack-up generated during the assembly and production process catalyzes the slight geometric dimensioning and tolerancing between the motor stator and rotor inside the electromechanical cylinder. The tolerance leads to imprecise brake control, so it is necessary to diagnose the fault of the motor in the fully assembled electromechanical brake system. This paper aims to present improved variational mode decomposition (VMD) algorithm, which endeavors to elucidate and push the boundaries of mechanical synchronicity problems within the realm of the electromechanical brake system.

The VMD algorithm plays a pivotal role in the preliminary phase, employing mode decomposition techniques to decompose the motor speed signals. Afterward, the error energy algorithm precision is utilized to extract abnormal features, leveraging the practical intrinsic mode functions, eliminating extraneous noise and enhancing the signal’s fidelity. This refined signal then becomes the basis for fault analysis. In the analytical step, the cepstrum is employed to calculate the formant and envelope of the reconstructed signal. By scrutinizing the formant and envelope, the fault point within the electromechanical brake system is precisely identified, contributing to a sophisticated and accurate fault diagnosis.

This paper innovatively uses the VMD algorithm for the modal decomposition of electromechanical brake (EMB) motor speed signals and combines it with the error energy algorithm to achieve abnormal feature extraction. The signal is reconstructed according to the effective intrinsic mode functions (IMFS) component of removing noise, and the formant and envelope are calculated by cepstrum to locate the fault point. Experiments show that the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithm can effectively decompose the original speed signal. After feature extraction, signal enhancement and fault identification, the motor mechanical fault point can be accurately located. This fault diagnosis method is an effective fault diagnosis algorithm suitable for EMB systems.

By using this improved VMD algorithm, the electromechanical brake system can precisely identify the rotational anomaly of the motor. This method can offer an online diagnosis analysis function during operation and contribute to an automated factory inspection strategy while parts are assembled. Compared with the conventional motor diagnosis method, this improved VMD algorithm can eliminate the need for additional acceleration sensors and save hardware costs. Moreover, the accumulation of online detection functions helps improve the reliability of train electromechanical braking systems.

Artificial intelligence (AI) offers many benefits to improve predictive marketing practice. It raises ethical concerns regarding customer prioritization, market share concentration and consumer manipulation. This paper explores these ethical concerns from a contemporary perspective, drawing on the experiences and perspectives of AI and predictive marketing professionals. This study aims to contribute to the field by providing a modern perspective on the ethical concerns of AI usage in predictive marketing, drawing on the experiences and perspectives of professionals in the area.

The study conducted semistructured interviews for 6 weeks with 14 participants experienced in AI-enabled systems for marketing, using purposive and snowball sampling techniques. Thematic analysis was used to explore themes emerging from the data.

Results reveal that using AI in marketing could lead to unintended consequences, such as perpetuating existing biases, violating customer privacy, limiting competition and manipulating consumer behavior.

The authors identify seven unique themes and benchmark them with Ashok’s model to provide a structured lens for interpreting the results. The framework presented by this research is unique and can be used to support ethical research spanning social, technological and economic aspects within the predictive marketing domain.

La Inteligencia Artificial (IA) ofrece muchos beneficios para mejorar la práctica del marketing predictivo. Sin embargo, plantea preocupaciones éticas relacionadas con la priorización de clientes, la concentración de cuota de mercado y la manipulación del consumidor. Este artículo explora estas preocupaciones éticas desde una perspectiva contemporánea, basándose en las experiencias y perspectivas de profesionales en IA y marketing predictivo. El estudio tiene como objetivo contribuir a la literatura de este ámbito al proporcionar una perspectiva moderna sobre las preocupaciones éticas del uso de la IA en el marketing predictivo, basándose en las experiencias y perspectivas de profesionales en el área.

Para realizar el estudio se realizaron entrevistas semiestructuradas durante seis semanas con 14 participantes con experiencia en sistemas habilitados para IA en marketing, utilizando técnicas de muestreo intencional y de bola de nieve. Se utilizó un análisis temático para explorar los temas que surgieron de los datos.

Los resultados revelan que el uso de la IA en marketing podría tener consecuencias no deseadas, como perpetuar sesgos existentes, violar la privacidad del cliente, limitar la competencia y manipular el comportamiento del consumidor.

El estudio identifica siete temas y los comparan con el modelo de Ashok para proporcionar una perspectiva estructurada para interpretar los resultados. El marco presentado por esta investigación es único y puede utilizarse para respaldar investigaciones éticas que abarquen aspectos sociales, tecnológicos y económicos dentro del ámbito del marketing predictivo.

人工智能（AI）为改进预测营销实践带来了诸多益处。然而, 这也引发了与客户优先级、市场份额集中和消费者操纵等伦理问题相关的观点。本文从当代角度深入探讨了这些伦理观点, 充分借鉴了人工智能和预测营销领域专业人士的经验和观点。旨在通过现代视角提供关于在预测营销中应用人工智能时所涉及的伦理观点, 为该领域做出有益贡献。

本研究采用了目的性和雪球抽样技术, 与14位在人工智能营销系统领域具有丰富经验的参与者进行为期六周的半结构化访谈。研究采用主题分析方法, 旨在深入挖掘数据中显现的主要主题。

研究结果表明, 在营销领域使用人工智能可能引发一系列意外后果, 包括但不限于加强现有偏见、侵犯客户隐私、限制竞争以及操纵消费者行为。

本研究通过明确定义七个独特的主题, 并采用阿肖克模型进行基准比较, 为读者提供了一个结构化的视角, 以解释研究结果。所提出的框架具有独特之处, 可有效支持在跨足社会、技术和经济领域的预测营销中展开的伦理研究。

Emojis are quickly becoming a popular new language in social media and marketing. The capability to express emotions and make message understanding easier is one of the primary reasons for using emojis. The aim of this research was to determine the influence of perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, trust, and involvement on customer engagement due to emojis used in digital marketing communications among Generation Z (Gen Z) in South Africa.

Following the descriptive research approach, quantitative research was used in this study. A questionnaire (self-administered) was utilized to test the effectiveness of using emojis among 1,000 young consumers. Structural equation modeling was used to test the hypotheses.

The findings of the study yielded positive relationships between the variables, namely between trust and involvement; involvement and the perceived ease of use; involvement and perceived usefulness; perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness; trust and customer engagement; perceived usefulness and customer engagement; involvement and customer engagement; customer engagement and intention to purchase; trust and intention to purchase; and perceived usefulness and intention to purchase.

This study can help organizations in emerging markets use emojis in their digital marketing communications to engage customers and stimulate intention to purchase among young people, especially the Gen Z cohort, who seek organizations and brands that understand and connect with them.

By investigating the effects of emojis in digital marketing communications, this study contributes to the customer-centric process and the literature on emoji usage while also involving a credible digital language when communicating with members of Gen Z. By extending TAM, the findings of this study contribute to the TAM literature by demonstrating that emoji usage in digital marketing communications positively influences various attitudinal associations among Gen Z consumers.