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This paper seeks to contribute to knowledge of the dynamics of global office markets with an assessment of the interaction of rental growth and vacancy rates across a sample of the world's leading office markets.

Econometric methods are used to estimate the relationship between rental growth and vacancy rates (taking into account the possible simultaneity between the two variables) and these equations are then used to estimate the natural vacancy rate at an individual city level and collectively for the three regions assessed (Europe, Asia Pacific and North America). An estimate is also made of the global natural vacancy rate.

The results suggest that estimates of natural vacancy rates vary significantly across the world but these estimates can be helpful to those seeking to understand global office markets. European markets in general have lower natural vacancy rates than those in North America. In Asia Pacific markets there is a greater variation between markets. In general developed markets have lower natural vacancy rates than developing ones. In developing markets the concept of a natural vacancy rate is one that should be applied with care, given the weakness of data and the speed with which they are undergoing structural change. When examining the differences in natural vacancy rates between markets, it is clear that fundamental supply and demand factors are key in driving those differences.

“Rule of thumb” estimates of natural vacancy rates are relatively common. However, a robust methodology for calculating natural vacancy rates is a powerful analytical tool for investors, occupiers and real estate advisors, as it enables a judgement of what supply/demand balance will trigger rental growth.

In estimating the natural vacancy rate across a sample of the world's leading office markets the paper makes an original contribution to the understanding of global office markets and in particular delivers an appreciation of how rental growth and vacancy rates interact.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of Swedish rent controls on observed vacancy rates for rental housing.

Housing vacancy rates are unevenly distributed among Swedish municipalities. In large expansive municipalities, such as Malmö, Göteborg and Stockholm, vacancy rates are very low, while in declining or smaller municipalities such as those in the northern and interior parts of Sweden, vacancy rates are considerably higher. This implies welfare losses not only in growing municipalities with queues for rental apartments but also in municipalities that are shrinking since the controlled rents there are higher than market rents and cause higher vacancy rates than with market rents. The authors estimate the influences of various determining factors, such as population growth, population size, rent levels, construction, demolition and market orientation of rents, on the observed vacancy rates.

The authors find that that these factors affect the vacancy rates differently depending on whether a municipality is large or small, growing or shrinking. Population growth, in percent per year, plays an important role in explaining the observed vacancy rates in declining regions.

A research task that remains to be done is to calculate the welfare losses due to rent higher than the market rent for municipalities in contraction.

To reduce the welfare losses of rent control, both in expanding and contracting municipalities, economists' straightforward recommendation to deregulate the rent control should, in principle, be carried out.

In many countries, rent control regulations are limited to cities, such as New York City. The paper shows that the Swedish rent control system however, applies nationwide, except for annual rent increases, which are set locally through negotiation.

This study aims to explore the spatial externalities of apartment vacancy rates on housing rent by considering multiple vacancy durations.

This research uses smart meter data to measure unobservable vacant houses. This study made a significant contribution by applying building-level smart meter data to housing market analysis. It examined whether vacancy duration significantly affected apartment rent and whether the relationship between apartment rent and vacancy rate differed depending on the level of housing rent.

The primary finding indicates that there is a significant negative correlation between apartment rent and vacancy duration. Considering the spatial externalities of apartment vacancy rates, the apartment vacancy rates of surrounding buildings did not show any statistical significance. Moreover, quantile regression results indicate that although the bottom 10% of apartment rent levels showed a negative correlation with all vacancy durations, the top 10% showed no statistical significance related to vacancies.

This study measures the extent of spatial externalities that can differentiate taxation based on housing vacancies.

The findings indicate that landlords have asymmetric information about their buildings compared with the surrounding buildings, and the extent to which price adjusts for long-term vacancies differs depending on the level of apartment rent.

This study hypothesises that sale and leaseback (SLB) cap rate is lower than the market cap rate in emerging economies, and the difference is due to institutional cost and vacancy risk. This study aims to provide a novel SLB-Cap-Rate Model to assess the performance of SLB transaction (SLBT).

SLBT data are generally not publicly available in developing countries. This study collected data from 31 SLBTs by conducting semi-structured interviews with stakeholders in Vietnam in 2019. The market cap rates were collected from consultants' reports. The hypotheses are tested by three regression models.

The results show that the SLBT cap rate is significantly less than the market cap rate in Vietnam, and most of the cap rate discount can be explained by institutional and risk factors. This suggests that SLBT helps to reduce search costs for tenants and vacancy risks. It explains why SLBTs are becoming more common in emerging countries.

The study has a strong practical implication for assessing the performance of SLBT for both buyers and sellers. It introduces a novel model for analysing the cap rates and potential risks of SLBT to facilitate property investment decisions.

This paper is one of the studies that contains new knowledge on SLBs in a developing country specifically Vietnam.

Death by suicide among Black people in the USA have increased by 35.6% within the past decade. Among youth under the age of 24 years old, death by suicide among Black youth have risen substantially. Researchers have found that structural inequities (e.g. educational attainment) and state-specific variables (e.g. minimum wage, incarceration rates) may increase risk for suicide among Black people compared to White people in the USA. Given the limited understanding of how such factors systematically affect Black and White communities differently, this paper aims to examine these relationships across US states using publicly available data from 2015 to 2019.

Data were aggregated from various national sources including the National Center for Education Statistics, the Department of Labor, the FBI’s Crime in the US Reports and the Census Bureau. Four generalized estimating equations (GEE) models were used to examine the impact of state-level variables on suicide rates: Black adults suicide rate, Black youth (24 years and younger) suicide rate, White adult suicide rate and White youth suicide rate. Each model includes state-level hate group rates, minimum wage, violent crime rates, gross vacancy rates, and race-specific state-level poverty rates, incarceration rates and graduation rates.

Across all GEE models, suicide rates rose between 2015–2019 (ß = 1.11 – 2.78; ß = 0.91 – 1.82; ß = 0.52 – 3.09; ß = 0.16 – 1.53). For the Black adult suicide rate, state rates increased as the proportion of Black incarceration rose (ß = 1.14) but fell as the gross housing vacancy rates increased (ß = −1.52). Among Black youth, state suicide rates rose as Black incarcerations increased (ß = 0.93). For the adult White suicide rate, state rates increased as White incarceration (ß = 1.05) and percent uninsured increased (ß = 1.83), but fell as White graduation rates increased (ß = −2.36). Finally, among White youth, state suicide rates increased as the White incarceration rate rose (ß = 0.55) and as the violent crime rate rose (ß = 0.55) but decreased as state minimum wages (ß = −0.61), White poverty rates (ß = −0.40) and graduation rates increased (ß = −0.97).

This work underscores how structural factors are associated with suicide rates, and how such factors differentially impact White and Black communities.

The main purpose of writing this paper is to try to suggest, in conceptual terms at least, a model for the labour turnover process. The model outlined in this paper is seen as a single part of the total supply and demand for labour in the macro‐economy.

This paper aims to propose a new valuation method for income producing properties. The model originally called cyclical dividend discount models (d’Amato, 2003) has been recently proposed as a family of income approach methodologies called cyclical capitalization (d’Amato, 2013; d’Amato, 2015; d’Amato, 2017).

The proposed methodology tries to integrate real estate market cycle analysis and forecast inside the valuation process allowing the appraiser to deal with real estate market phases analysis and their consequence in the local real estate market.

The findings consist in the creation of a methodology proposed for market value and in particular for mortgage lending determination, as the model may have the capability to reach prudent opinion of value in all the real estate market phase.

Research limitation consists mainly in a limited number of sample of time series of rent and in the forecast of more than a cap rate or yield rate even if it is quite commonly accepted the cyclical nature of the real estate market.

The implication of the proposed methodology is a modified approach to direct capitalization finding more flexible approaches to appraise income producing properties sensitive to the upturn and downturn of the real estate market.

The model proposed can be considered useful for the valuation process of those property affected by the property market cycle, both in the mortgage lending and market value determination.

These methodologies try to integrate in the appraisal process the role of property market cycles. Cyclical capitalization modelling includes in the traditional dividend discount model more than one g-factor to plot property market cycle dealing with the future in a different way. It must be stressed the countercyclical nature of the cyclical capitalization that may be helpful in the determination of mortgage lending value. This is a very important characteristic of such models.

Office decentralization has been developing rapidly in Hong Kong since the early 1980s. Office tenants relocated their businesses to the Decentralized District (DD) with the benefits of lower rent, higher flexibility of space use and better supporting facilities. This study examines office decentralization in Hong Kong's office market, both the upturn and downturn. It analyzes the vacancy trend of the Grade A office market in Hong Kong: DD versus Central Business District (CBD), based on a Decentralization Index. This study found that the CBD is a more stable office market sector than the non‐CBD. During a market upturn, the Grade A office market in Hong Kong DD has outperformed that in the CBD. However, during a market downturn, the vacancy rate in the DD tends to increase at a greater rate than that in the CBD. The study also found that periods with a sufficiently high index of decentralization generally experienced increases in CBD rent premiums.

Relying on a unique proprietary Polish office market space database, the paper attempts to quantify the impact of buildings' age on the financial performance of real estate assets.

Panel econometric modeling was utilized to disentangle the impact of buildings' functional obsolescence and technical deterioration on their long-term financial performance.

In line with casual empiricism, our findings show a negative associative link between properties' age and potential lease revenue. The concomitant stickiness of service charges presages a possible long-term deterioration of financial outcomes of real estate investments. While older buildings generally have higher occupancy rates, the absorption rates are found to be negatively affected by the properties' age. On the bright side, the elasticity of vacancy rate with respect to rental rates is found to decrease as buildings get older. Further, the rent differential is confirmed to be more pronounced in higher age properties hinting at an existing potential for price discrimination, which may at least partially compensate for stagnant rents.

Our empirical results confirm the properties' age to be a statistically significant factor in shaping the long-term performance of real estate assets, which should be better accounted for in financial projections for real estate developments.