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A growing amount of micro-data analyses has highlighted the importance of information trails, such as generated by card transactions, for improving tax compliance. Yet, time series evidence indicating a positive effect of card payments on VAT revenue performance has been scarce. This paper revisits the question of the effect of card payments on VAT revenue by using annual and quarterly panel data for the 19 euro area member states, covering the period 2000–2016.

A panel VECM is employed in order to address endogeneity issues and to account for common stochastic trends, which, is shown to be crucial in revealing the anticipated positive effect of card use on the performance of VAT.

The analysis confirms that a higher share of card payments in private consumption increases VAT revenue and the efficiency of revenue collection. Higher gains are estimated for countries with above average self-employment.

The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, to our knowledge it provides the first confirmation of the well-established literature on information trails using aggregate macroeconomic time series in a multi-country setting. Second, it has very timely policy implications, as low-hanging fruit are identified in euro-area economies with much to gain from strengthening the credibility of their fiscal performance, such as Greece.

The Government of Namibia has traditionally used fiscal (especially tax) policy as an instrument for annual budget formulation. Marginal tax rates for profits and various income brackets have been changed back and forth in response to changes in economic conditions. However, to date, no attempt has been made to evaluate the effectiveness of these reforms in achieving the broad national economic goals, in general, and the potential effects on government revenue in the short, medium and long-run periods, in particular. The purpose of this paper is to fill this information gap by analysing the implication of the 2008 zero-rating of value added tax (VAT) on basic commodities for aggregate demand and government revenue.

The study uses an analytical framework based on economic theory which posits that in an open economy, which trades with the rest of the world, aggregate demand for goods and services is made up of consumption demand, investment demand, government demand and net exports and that real sector equilibrium is attained when aggregate supply of goods and services is equal to aggregate demand for goods and services.

Using the Namibia Household Income and Expenditure Survey results, the annual loss in government revenue attributable to this policy is, ceteris paribus, estimated to be N$310.4 million. With a marginal propensity to consume out of disposable income of 0.89, total expenditure by households on goods and services is likely to increase by N$276.3 million per annum. In the medium-to-long-run, national income will have increased by N$303.9 million per annum. Taxes which are responsive to changes in the level of national income will have increased by N$85.7 million, compensating for just over one quarter of the estimated loss in government revenue of N$310.4 million.

The study has used a partial equilibrium model as opposed to computable general equilibrium model, which provides a consistent framework that meets most of the sectoral and institutional data requirements for the simple reason that a social accounting matrix which can be used readily to connect data from different sources, such as national accounts and household surveys and would thus have been ideal model for analysing the impacts of the VAT tax reform has not been developed for Namibia.

The paper provides a number of practical policy options available for government including, but not limited to, increasing direct taxes, VAT rate on specific (luxury) goods and services and statutory VAT rate on all other commodities not zero-rated, other taxes such as taxes; and borrowing from external sources.

It is established that zero-rating VAT on all the basic commodities in 2008 reduces the VAT paid by all Namibian households by N$310.4 million per year, which represents the annual increase in the disposable income of all households. And with a marginal propensity to consume out of disposable income of 0.89, total expenditure by households on goods and services will increase by N$276.3 million per year.

This paper presents the first attempt at evaluating the effectiveness of tax (VAT) policy reforms in Namibia in achieving the broad national economic goals, in general, and the potential effects on government revenue in the short, medium and long-run periods, in particular.

This paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the broad economic effects of tax policy reform in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the KSA, three simulations are run. The first simulation is the baseline simulation, which generates growth paths of the Saudi economy in the absence of tax reform. In developing the baseline simulation, this study incorporates forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. The remaining simulations are policy simulations. A policy simulation deviates from the baseline simulation in response to a policy change. In the first policy simulation, this study introduces a value-added tax (VAT) that generates SAR 35bn. This study assumes budget neutrality with the additional tax revenue transferred to households via a lump sum payment. In the second policy simulation, this study introduces a corporate income tax that generates SAR 35bn. This study then calculates and compares the distortion these taxes introduce into the economy.

This study finds that although the introduction of new taxes increases government tax revenue, markets are distorted lowering efficiency and production. An introduction of VAT increases the cost of consumption relative to the cost of production. As a consequence, the real cost of labour increases lowering employment in the short run. Employment moves to the baseline, as wages adjust capital and real gross domestic product (GDP) is below base throughout the simulation period. The second simulation is an increase in the corporate tax rate with lowers the post-tax rates of return investors receive. This simulation shows that the negative impact on investment, capital and GDP is larger with the introduction of a corporate tax than with the VAT.

Literature focusing on tax policy reform in the Gulf Cooperation Council and, specifically, Saudi Arabia is limited. This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the following: understanding the impact and mechanisms through which changes in taxation impact the economy more generally; understanding the potential harm caused to allocative efficiency and production due to taxes; and ways in which fiscal reform might complement other reforms such as efforts to diversify the economy, labour market and energy price reforms. This improves the information base available to policymakers charged with designing an optimal tax system that meets all future requirements of a country such as the KSA.

The authors developed and applied a CGE model for the KSA to analyse the impact of VAT and corporate tax on the Saudi economy. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no recent CGE models for Saudi Arabia that have been used for tax policy or quantifying the potential harm to the economy when new taxes are introduced.

This article examines the macroeconomic impact of a consumption‐based value‐added tax (VAT) using simulations of a large‐scale model. The VAT is imposed as a structural reform of the tax code rather than as a revenue‐raising device, i.e., the revenues from the VAT are offset by compensatory reductions elsewhere. Three basic scenarios are examined, in which 1) the VAT is offset by individual rate reductions, 2) abolition of the corporate profits tax in conjunction with a small individual rate cut, and 3) an investment tax credit with the balance of the revenues offset by a personal rate cut. Additionally, this paper examines the effects of the microeconomic incidence of the VAT, i.e., whether it is fully passed through to output prices or shifted back onto profits. The finding is that the VAT in general raises the long‐term level of output, but at the cost of initial output losses, which are in evidence even when the associated rise in the price level is accommodated by a corresponding shift in monetary policy. In addition to changes in the intertemporal distribution of growth, there are significant changes in the composition of GNP, which shifts away from consumption, toward business fixed investment and net exports. These changes are particularly pronounced when the VAT is fully passed through. When the tax is partially shifted back, the gains in investment and trade are less marked, while business profits are reduced, and the long‐term increase in output is smaller.

Enhanced revenue mobilization is essential in developing countries such as South Africa. However, it is inevitably a complex process, both from economic and political perspectives. Increasing the rate of value-added tax (VAT) has been identified as one option to increase tax revenue, although the likely effect of VAT rate changes on tax compliance behaviour is undetermined. This study considers the impact of such a change on the tax compliance behaviour of small business entities. In order to address the impact of VAT rate changes on tax compliance behaviour, a between-subjects pre-test/post-test online field experiment was conducted and designed to identify the implications of rate changes of various directions and magnitude.

Statistical analysis of the data obtained from the experiment indicated that small business entities are inclined to reduce the VAT liability when there is an increase in the VAT rate, and to do so by overstating purchases rather than under-declaring sales. This leads to an increase in non-compliance. The greater the magnitude of the VAT rate increase, the greater the level of non-compliance. In contrast, no significant relationships were identified between a decrease in the VAT rate and tax compliance.

Correct registration for the value-added tax (VAT) is a key aspect of tax compliance; it is vital in ensuring adequate tax revenue collection in all countries but particularly in developing countries such as South Africa. Non-registration hinders sufficient tax revenue collection, stifles economic growth and causes unfair competition with formal businesses. The purpose of this study is to determine whether changes in the VAT rate affect the registration decisions of businesses, ultimately impacting upon tax compliance behaviour and tax revenue collection.

An online 2 × 2 between-subjects field experiment was conducted, as part of a broader study, to consider compliance with registration requirements by small business entities in South Africa, specifically when there are changes in the VAT rate.

Although the study establishes that changes in the VAT rate tend not to have a significant impact on the registration decisions of such taxpayers, it nonetheless indicates that the magnitude of the change in the VAT rate may be influential on registration decisions, whether relating to compulsory or voluntary registration. More particularly, the greater the magnitude of the VAT rate decrease (increase), the more likely it is that taxpayers will register (deregister) for VAT purposes, indicating that the magnitude of changes in the VAT rate do have an impact on VAT registration decisions and therefore on tax compliance more generally.

Not only does the study add to the limited knowledge available on registration decisions of small businesses, but also gives valuable guidance to policymakers in terms of determining the VAT rate for the country.

Not only does the study add to the limited knowledge available on registration decisions of small businesses, but it also gives valuable guidance to policymakers in terms of determining the VAT rate for the country.

This paper aims to analyze the potential variables explaining the compliance value added tax (VAT) gap, which basically represents an estimate of the unpaid VAT in the economy. A major component of compliance VAT Gap is represented by tax fraud; there exist other causes too, like insolvencies, bankruptcies, optimizations practices and maladministration. The objective of our paper is to revisit the main determinants of the VAT compliance gap for the European Union (EU)-27 member states. Using econometric modeling, our study identifies the relationship between the VAT gap and various determinants of it.

Our work focuses on the shadow economy, final consumption, VAT revenues, standard VAT rates, differences between the standard and reduced rates, economic prosperity, press freedom, political stability and others, as determinants of European VAT compliance gaps, for the 2005–2020 time interval. The methods include panel data analysis through simple and multiple regression modeling, the combinatorial approach, fixed and random effects.

Our study validates the direct impact of shadow economy and the indirect impact of VAT revenues, economic prosperity and press freedom, upon VAT compliance gaps. Upon subsampling of EU member states within old and new ones, our results estimate a larger positive impact of shadow economy upon old member states, compared to new ones.

The policy implications include leverage effects of governments acting upon a reduction in shadow economy phenomena and boosts of economic development, political stability and press freedom, in order to attain the contraction of compliance VAT gaps.

Our paper sheds light in a poorly explored scientific area, that of the determinants of VAT gap, especially in relationship with financial and economic crime phenomena.

The purpose of this paper is to gain insight into how well past reforms have performed against revenue, equity and efficiency benchmarks of tax policymaking, so that the direction of future reform of tax system might be determined. It also presents a comparative analysis of taxation and revenue trends in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the data set period 1990-2012.

By overviewing the development and relative significance of resource revenues, allocating non-resource taxes and examining the tax policies of constituent countries, this paper presents a comparative review of taxation and revenue trends in the MENA region.

Findings showed, on average, a slight decline in non-resource revenues against the significant rise in income from resources. The analysis of government revenues and current taxation structures provide insight into how prior reforms have performed against the standard measures of tax policy-making (i.e. revenue, equity and efficiency) and directions for change leading to the establishment of simple tax systems. The study observes regional differences, such as the higher tax and revenues of the Maghreb sub-region over the Mashreq, except for value-added tax, where low rates were associated with equal or greater revenue. Similarities were also found, including the partial compensation by income taxes (not indirect taxes) for revenue lost through trade liberalization. The challenges of tax reform are found to vary across countries and opportunities for improving equity and reducing the complexity of tax systems across the region are identified.

Reforms in all tax systems could have major implications for the country, employment, earnings and tax revenues; but recommendations would require political value judgments and government decisions. The study suggests eliminating the current tax system, thereby replacing one of the more distortionary taxes in the current system with a neutral and efficient tax.

The paper signals the need, even of the oil-rich states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, for governments to build tax systems capable of capturing and spending revenues effectively into the future.

E‐commerce has changed the way in which business is conducted. One instance of this is that it has made the digitisation of products possible. This shift has severe implications for traditional consumption taxes, which were developed under the premise of a physical presence in a tax jurisdiction. A large number of countries in the world that impose Value‐Added Tax (VAT) on the supply of goods and services, including South Africa, are affected by this shift. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has suggested a number of principles that should apply to consumption taxes in e‐commerce. These principles are intended to provide fiscal climates in which e‐commerce can flourish and ensure taxation systems that secure individual countries’ tax bases. A comparison between the OECD principles and the rules pertaining to the imposition of VAT in South Africa on the supply of digitised products reveals several discrepancies and uncertainties. A baseline survey among VAT specialists in South Africa, conducted in order to substantiate these findings, confirmed these discrepancies and uncertainties in practice.