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The purpose of this paper is to adopt an in-depth perspective on cost estimation, from the development of the initial idea until the budget is agreed, to obtain new insights into issues of underestimation at the front-end.

The study uses a small sample of projects with exceptional increases in cost estimates during the front-end phase. The authors analyzed the magnitude of cost increases and possible reasons for them.

The paper concludes that underestimation in the front-end phase was significant in the sample and poses a serious problem in that suboptimal projects are approved. The causes of underestimation include underestimating risk, overestimating opportunities, inadequate estimation methods and skills, reliance on weak information, and strategic/deliberate scope creep and division of projects.

The study builds on a small sample, and hence further studies should be undertaken to verify whether the findings are generalizable.

The sample shows that the projects with the most unrealistic early estimates have disputable relevance. The paper suggests a number of recommendations that might help to counter the problem of unrealistic early cost estimates, which in turn, might allow suboptimal projects to be funded.

The underestimation of costs at the front-end is grossly neglected in the literature compared with whether costs comply with the budget. While cost overruns are an indication of failure in terms of the project’s tactical performance, the contention is that the up-front underestimation of costs might result in an inferior project being selected and thus affect the strategic performance of the project.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run survival of earnings fixated traders.

This paper builds a theoretical model of a competitive securities market where both rational traders and earnings fixated traders receive an informational signal about the asset payoff before any trade occurs. Since earnings fixated traders underestimate the mean and variance of the risky asset payoff, earnings fixated traders is shown to make less expected profits than rational traders.

If traders’ types replicate according to the relative profitability of their trading strategies, then earnings fixated traders will disappear in the long run. The results of this paper provide analytical support to Tinic’s (1990) intuition about the eventual disappearance of earnings fixated traders.

In the literature, the underestimation of risk is popularly viewed as the cause of irrational traders being better able to exploit the misvaluations (created by noise traders) than rational traders. Hence, it favors the survival of irrational traders over rational traders. However, this paper disapproves this intuition in the informational environment of the competitive securities market.

The market environment plays a crucial role in determining the long-run survival of irrational traders.

This paper is the first to present a theoretical result showing that in this informational environment of the competitive securities market, the underestimation of risk by irrational traders does not give them advantage over rational traders in exploiting the misvaluations (created by noise traders) as it does in Callen and Luo (2011) and Hirshleifer and Luo (2001).

The use of risk proxies in internal models remains a popular modelling solution. However, there is some risk that a proxy may not constitute an adequate representation of the underlying asset in terms of capturing tail risk. Therefore, using empirical examples for the financial collateral haircut model, this paper aims to critically review available statistical tools for measuring the adequacy of capturing tail risk by proxies used in the internal risk models of banks. In doing so, this paper advises on the most appropriate solutions for validating risk proxies.

This paper reviews statistical tools used to validate if the equity index/fund benchmark are proxies that adequately represent tail risk in the returns on an individual asset (equity/fund). The following statistical tools for comparing return distributions of the proxies and the portfolio items are discussed: the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, the spillover test and the Harrell’s C test.

Upon the empirical review of the available statistical tools, this paper suggests using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to validate the adequacy of capturing tail risk by the assigned proxy and the Harrell’s C test to capture the discriminatory power of the proxy-based collateral haircuts models. This paper also suggests a tool that compares the reactions of risk proxies to tail events to verify possible underestimation of risk in times of significant stress.

The current regulations require banks to prove that the modelled proxies are representative of the real price observations without underestimation of tail risk and asset price volatility. This paper shows how to validate proxy-based financial collateral haircuts models.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of the dependence structure between returns from real estate investment trusts (REITS) and a stock market index. Further, the aim is to illustrate how copula approaches can be applied to model the complex dependence structure between the assets and for risk measurement of a portfolio containing investments in REIT and equity indices.

The usually suggested multivariate normal or variance‐ covariance approach is applied, as well as various copula models in order to investigate the dependence structure between returns of Australian REITS and the Australian stock market. Different models including the Gaussian, Student t, Clayton and Gumbel copula are estimated and goodness‐of‐fit tests are conducted. For the return series, both the Gaussian and a non‐parametric estimate of the distribution is applied. A risk analysis is provided based on Monte Carlo simulations for the different models. The value‐at‐risk measure is also applied for quantification of the risks for a portfolio combining investments in real estate and stock markets.

The findings suggest that the multivariate normal model is not appropriate to measure the complex dependence structure between the returns of the two asset classes. Instead, a model using non‐parametric estimates for the return series in combination with a Student t copula is clearly more suitable. It further illustrates that the usually applied variance‐covariance approach leads to a significant underestimation of the actual risk for a portfolio consisting of investments in REITS and equity indices. The nature of risk is better captured by the suggested copula models.

To the authors', knowledge, this is one of the first studies to apply and test different copula models in real estate markets. Results help international investors and portfolio managers to deepen their understanding of the dependence structure between returns from real estate and equity markets. Additionally, the results should be helpful for implementation of a more adequate risk management for portfolios containing investments in both REITS and equity indices.

The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the recent banking and financial crisis in the UK. It discusses the triggers of the crisis from a UK perspective and then examines the immediate reactions in the form of short‐term policies and concludes with a discussion on longer‐term policies.

This is a conceptual paper that argues that some of the triggers of the crisis are real and some are behavioural.

The crisis has its roots in the sub‐prime crisis of the USA with spillover effects for the UK due to its well‐developed and international financial sector. The systemic environment of high leverage in the financial, corporate and household sectors, the international nature of finance, and the opacity in banks' balance sheets are real triggers. In contrast, the underestimation of risks by almost all agents in the economy is behavioural.

The paper argues that some of the conditions that led to the crisis will not change and should now be incorporated in new banking regulations. This is particularly true in the case of behavioural factors. Optimism, greed, herding and underestimation of low‐probability high‐impact events, are all parts of human nature. Human nature will not change. Thus, it need better regulations.

Less privileged groups, such as the poor, the uneducated, and the elderly, need better regulation to make them less vulnerable not only to others' biases but also to their own biases.

The paper is original in discussing behavioural side of the crisis along with the real side of it.

This paper aims to compare products traded in secular and Islamic banking environments prior to the credit crunch of 2007–2008; to locate the comparison in a Schumpeterian model of creative destruction of dynamic innovation in the capital markets; and to evaluate the implications for diversity of investor product choice.

Financial products are critiqued using qualitative criteria, including underestimation of risk implicit in mortgage-backed securities and securitisation, excessive speculative activity in credit default swaps and the magnification of leverage and volatility. Comparable Islamic products are considered for the extent to which they facilitate the same precursors of market crises.

Innovation in secular financial markets has traditionally led to asset bubbles, underestimation of risks and market exuberance. Islamic banking constrains creativity by prohibiting risk transference and disconnection of financing activity from social context and economic purpose. As such, the latter reduces Schumpeterian creative destruction but at the cost of reduced investor choice and market liquidity. Restriction of the reallocation of risk between those who do not wish to hold it and those who do dampens innovation but would have prevented the trading of products which contributed to the credit crunch.

The constraining effect of Islamic banking upon creativity and innovation is considered alongside its capacity to reduce market volatility, speculation and systemic instability. Schumpeterian theory deepens the analysis in terms of the drivers of innovation and market collapse.

Interest rate risk, i.e. the risk of changes in the interest rate term structure, is of high relevance in insurers' risk management. Due to large capital investments in interest rate sensitive assets such as bonds, interest rate risk plays a considerable role for deriving the solvency capital requirement (SCR) in the context of Solvency II. This paper seeks to address these issues.

In addition to the Solvency II standard model, the author applies the model of Gatzert and Martin for introducing a partial internal model for the market risk of bond exposures. After introducing calibration methods for short rate models, the author quantifies interest rate and credit risk for corporate and government bonds and demonstrates that the type of process can have a considerable impact despite comparable underlying input data.

The results show that, in general, the SCR for interest rate risk derived from the standard model of Solvency II tends to the SCR achieved by the short rate model from Vasicek, while the application of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross model leads to a lower SCR. For low‐rated bonds, the internal models approximate each other and, moreover, show a considerable underestimation of credit risk in the Solvency II model.

The aim of this paper is to assess model risk with focus on bonds in the market risk module of Solvency II regarding the underlying interest rate process and input parameters.

Although the significance of travel risks is well documented, the process through which people assess their vulnerability and ultimately take on preventive measures needs clarification. Motivated by concern with traveler’s underestimation of risks, this chapter provides a crucial next step by introducing new theory to explain how people calibrate travel risks. The conceptual model incorporates constructs from motivational theories, cognitive appraisal, and emotionality. Future studies adopting this model will broaden the nature and scope of research on travel risk while helping government and industry to increase the reach and relevance of travel health and safety messages.

Using a convenient tail-risk measure of performance, this paper aims to explore the extent to which incorporating higher statistical moments such as an assets skewness and kurtosis, provides further insight into the potential benefits of asset-class diversification within the realm of Islamic finance.

The authors use Engle’s (2002) DCC-GARCH model to study the dynamic conditional correlations between asset classes. Furthermore, the authors use the modified value-at-risk (Favre and Galeano, 2002), which incorporates higher statistical moments, to measure the performance of portfolios during both crisis and bullish regimes.

The most important finding relates to the estimation of portfolio tail-risk. In particular, the authors find that using a standard two-moment value-at-risk (VaR) measure, which assumes normally distributed returns, rather than a four-moment VaR, which incorporates an asset skewness and kurtosis, can lead to a substantial underestimation of portfolio risk during the most extreme market conditions.

This paper contributes to the extremely limited research considering higher-moments within the realm of Islamic portfolio-management. The results suggest that Islamic portfolio managers should remain cognisant of the skewness and kurtosis parameters of their assets. Ignoring higher-moments could induce misleading inferences and would, therefore, constitute imprudent risk-management.

The purpose of this paper is to reflect on how qualitative approaches can improve a prevalence study on older adults’ violence. The paper describes how qualitative data can help frame a complex and multidimensional problem, such as older adults’ violence, within the culture where it happens and therefore prevent two risks present in prevalence studies: underestimation and overestimation.

To adequately measure violence and violent behaviours the authors first conducted four focus groups with the target population – older adults aged 60 and over – and 13 in-depth interviews with older adult victims of violence. Through content analysis of focus groups and in-depth interviews the authors sought to understand how violence is perceived, defined and limited by the general population and by victims.

By employing qualitative methods the authors were able to operationalise violence, decide upon and select specific behaviours to measure, rephrase questions and develop strategies to approach the general population through telephone interviews.

The qualitative approaches helped reduce participants bias in the prevalence study and therefore to minimise the risks of underestimation and overestimation.

The study exemplifies how assessing quantitatively to a sensitive subject requires taking into account the perspective of the target population through a qualitative approach.