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1 – 10 of over 4000Raphael Rocha Gouvêa and Gilberto Tadeu Lima
The aim of this paper is to contribute to the literature on balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth by providing an innovative empirical evaluation of a disaggregated version of…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is to contribute to the literature on balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth by providing an innovative empirical evaluation of a disaggregated version of the so‐called Thirlwall's Law derived from a Pasinettian multisectoral framework.
Design/methodology/approach
After estimating sectoral elasticities of exports and imports for a considerable panel dataset of 90 countries over the period 1965‐1999, the authors have performed two empirical exercises. First, they grouped countries together by income level and evaluated a multisectoral balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth model by analyzing prediction errors and mean absolute deviations. Second, the authors carried out a regression validity test on the results.
Findings
The main findings give support to the validity of the multisectoral version of Thirlwall's Law, providing therefore further understanding of the structural determinants of the uneven international development and guidance for the design of growth‐enhancing national structural policies.
Originality/value
The main value added of this contribution to the existing literature lies in the use of disaggregated trade data in conjunction with modern panel data econometric techniques to obtain empirical estimates on the balance‐of‐payments constraints to long‐run economic growth for an unprecedently large sample of countries.
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As one of the world's most valuable traded commodities, the market for coffee beans has grown enormously in recent years. The paper aims on analyzing the nonlinear exchange rate…
Abstract
Purpose
As one of the world's most valuable traded commodities, the market for coffee beans has grown enormously in recent years. The paper aims on analyzing the nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in Turkish coffee bean imports from two important sources in South America: Brazil and Colombia.
Design/methodology/approach
Data collected in this paper through reliable channels include nominal import value, exchange rate, production of total industry, etc. Independent and dependent variables are obtained through conversion. Since the nonlinearly adjusted exchange rate differs significantly from the linearly adjusted one for the export trade of Brazilian coffee beans, this paper develops the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL frameworks and demonstrates their application through asymmetric cointegration and error correction models.
Findings
The results of this paper show that imports of Brazilian coffee bean exhibit a more dramatic asymmetry compared to Colombia's coffee bean imports. The results of this study contribute to the import trade of non-oil commodities in developing countries, particularly Brazil, and enrich the existing literature on nonlinear exchange rate adjustments.
Research limitations/implications
The export of Colombian coffee beans is not as old as Brazil, and it was not until much later that Colombia began to export coffee beans to the rest of the world.
Originality/value
The present study is an addition to the literature of agricultural trade. The authors analyze the nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in Turkish coffee bean imports from two important sources in South America: Brazil and Colombia. Different from the current mainstream research on oil commodity trade, this paper focuses on international trade from the perspective of coffee beans, which can enlighten the practice in this field.
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Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro, John S.L. McCombie and Gilberto Tadeu Lima
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature on demand-driven Keynesian growth in open economies by developing a formal model that combines Dixon and Thirlwall’s…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature on demand-driven Keynesian growth in open economies by developing a formal model that combines Dixon and Thirlwall’s (1975) export-led growth model and Thirlwall’s (1979) balance-of-payments constrained growth model into a more general specification. Then, based on the model developed in this paper, the authors analyse more broadly some important issues concerning the net impact of currency depreciation on the short-run growth.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors build upon Dixon and Thirlwall’s (1975) export-led growth model and Thirlwall’s (1979) balance-of-payments constrained growth model in order to develop the theoretical framework. The authors also run numerical simulations to illustrate the net impact of devaluation on the short-run growth rate in different scenarios.
Findings
The authors demonstrate that the net impact of currency devaluation on growth can go either way, depending on some structural conditions such as the average share of imported intermediate inputs in prime costs of domestic firms and the institutional capacity of trade unions to set nominal wages through the bargaining process. The model also shows that the effectiveness of a competitive real exchange rate to promote growth is higher in countries where the share of labour in domestic income is also higher.
Research limitations/implications
This paper provides a coherent formal starting-point for further theoretical developments on the interrelatedness between currency devaluation, income distribution and growth. These findings provide empirically testable hypothesis for future research.
Originality/value
The present study proposes an alternative formal solution for the theoretical problem of imposing a balance-of-payments constraint on the process of cumulative causation often incorporated in Kaldorian growth models. In terms of policy, the framework sheds further light on the relevance of income distribution and the labour market institutional framework for the dynamics of the exchange rate pass-through mechanism and allows us to map out related conditions under which currency devaluation can promote growth.
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The purpose of this paper is to use disaggregated data on US‐UK trade to investigate the effects of exchange rate depreciation on trade in services both in the short‐ and long‐run.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to use disaggregated data on US‐UK trade to investigate the effects of exchange rate depreciation on trade in services both in the short‐ and long‐run.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper focuses on the three traditional categories of internationally traded services – travel, passenger fares and other transportation services – and employs the “bounds” testing procedure advanced by Pesaran, Shin and Smith to investigate the J‐curve effect.
Findings
The results reveal that the real exchange rate has a statistically significant effect on trade in services in at least one of the time periods. The results also provide some support for the J‐curve effect.
Practical implications
Empirical evidence on the J‐curve provides policymakers with valuable information about the effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance.
Originality/value
To the best of the author's knowledge this is the first paper to investigate the J‐curve effect using data on trade in services.
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Nurcan Kilinc-Ata, Abdulkadir Barut and Mücahit Citil
Today, many industries are implementing creative approaches in response to increasing environmental awareness. It is of great importance to answer the question of whether the…
Abstract
Purpose
Today, many industries are implementing creative approaches in response to increasing environmental awareness. It is of great importance to answer the question of whether the military sector, one of the most important sectors, can support renewable energy (RE) adaptation. This study aims to examine how military spending affects the supply of RE in 27 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations as well as the regulatory function of factors such as innovation, international trade and oil prices between 1990 and 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
The study examines the effects of military spending, income, green innovation, international trade, oil prices and the human development index on the supply of RE using various econometric approaches, which are the cointegration test, moments quantile regression and robustness test.
Findings
The findings demonstrate that all factors, excluding military spending, quite likely affect the expansion of the renewable supply. Military spending negatively influences the RE supply; specifically, a 1% increase in military spending results in a 0.88 reduction in the renewable supply. In addition, whereas income elasticity, trade and human development index in OECD nations are higher in the last quantiles of the regression than in the first quantiles, the influence of military spending and innovation on renewable supply is about the same in all quantiles.
Practical implications
OECD nations must consider the practical implications, which are essential to assess and update the military spending of OECD countries from a green energy perspective to transition to clean energy. Based on the study’s overall findings, the OECD countries should incorporate the advantages of innovation, economic growth and international trade into their clean energy transition strategies to lessen the impact of military spending on renewables.
Originality/value
The study aims to fill a gap in the literature regarding the role of military expenditures in the RE development of an OECD country. In addition, the results of the methodological analysis can be used to guide policymakers on how military spending should be in the field of RE.
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Muhammad Ali Nasir and Karen Jackson
In the context of debate on competitive devaluation and trade imbalances, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of exchange rate misalignment as a determinant of…
Abstract
Purpose
In the context of debate on competitive devaluation and trade imbalances, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of exchange rate misalignment as a determinant of trade imbalances in selected major trade surplus (Germany, China, Japan, Russia and KSA) and major trade deficit countries (USA, UK, France, India and Turkey).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used a structural vector auto-regressive model on data from ten countries with the highest trade deficit and surplus. The period of analysis is from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q1.
Findings
The key findings suggest that although exchange rate misalignment from equilibrium may have some implications for the current account balance for surplus and deficit countries, the effects observed were rather very mild and transitory. There was a heterogeneity in the response of the current account position to exchange rate misalignment in each country, concomitantly; the exchange rate misalignment shall not be seen as the sole responsible factor in the debate on global trade imbalances.
Research limitations/implications
The research has profound implications in terms of exploring the notion of competitive devaluation and exchange rate misalignment as a cause of major global trade imbalances.
Practical implications
This study has important practical implications for the trade policy of major economies in the world. These are twofold. First, this study has analysed and reported on the degree of misalignment of exchange from its equilibrium values in the major trade surplus and deficit countries. Second, it has investigated the implications of any misalignment for the trade balance or respective economies.
Social implications
There are important social implications as the notion of competitive devaluation and exchange rate–trade balance nexus has been heavily politicised. This study provides an empirical insight and an answer to these claims which have social and political implications.
Originality/value
There is a significant element of originality and contribution to the existing body of knowledge on the subject. In the context of debate on competitive devaluation this is the first study which has investigated whether the exchange rate has been misaligned from its equilibrium values (competitive devaluation) and whether there is some nexus between the real exchange rate misalignment and trade imbalances in under-analysis economies.
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The paper was written to highlight the advantages of initiating economic integration among Muslim countries across the globe, drawing special lessons from Europe's experience; its…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper was written to highlight the advantages of initiating economic integration among Muslim countries across the globe, drawing special lessons from Europe's experience; its successful economic integration and challenges which trailed the process.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology is basically descriptive and analytical. Theoretical construct and model on economic integration was developed for adoption by the Muslim countries. The model seeks to enhance their economic strength through intra and inter trade relations and reduces their weaknesses through specialization. Secondary data from Organization of the Islamic Conference and Islamic Development Bank member countries were exhaustively used in the study.
Findings
The paper found out that integration is plausible and beneficial, however, a concerted effort must be made in promoting technological development, raise human capital, and improve the product diversification among Muslim countries while developing stable institutions and infrastructures. Two, the potential benefits of integrating exceed the costs. The emphasis needs to be, not in cutting costs/inputs (reductionist approach), but on generating more wealth/revenue/income (incrementalist approach) that results in reducing the huge external debt, poverty, diseases, frustration, and corruption in most Muslim countries. Three, key to Muslims' socio‐economic happiness is through mutual cooperation for growth and development (Qur'an 42:38, Q3:159).
Research limitations/implications
The major contributions of this paper are three, firstly, the paper explores a faith‐based integration effort, and secondly, it identifies reasons for low success in the integration efforts among Muslim countries and finally suggests an econometric model based on faith that neglects the artificial geographical barrier.
Practical implications
The practical implication of the paper is the recommendation to establish a Muslim Economic Bloc because Muslim countries are economically heterogenous group, with uneven development and growth pattern.
Originality/value
The paper is major contribution in the field of Islamic economics and applied economics. Contrary to what we know in the conventional economics, this paper advocates a faith‐based economic model and bloc in a globalised world economy. It is a contribution to existing literature.
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The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of social or government transfers on income inequality and poverty in South Africa.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of social or government transfers on income inequality and poverty in South Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
A top-down, bottom-up (TD-BU) model which combines an econometrically estimated labor supply model, a detailed tax-benefit module and a computable general equilibrium model is used in order to analyze the impact of government transfers on income inequality and poverty in South Africa. The paper uses a merged South African income and expenditure household survey and labor force survey for the year 2000, and a South African social accounting matrix as the main data sets.
Findings
Simulation results suggest that doubling of government transfers lead to a 5.5 percent reduction in poverty if a relative poverty measure is used and a 7 percent reduction if an absolute poverty line is used. In addition, simulation results show differences in poverty and inequality measures between the MS-only model and the linked TD-BU model confirming the importance of linking the two models.
Originality/value
The TD-BU approach is important since it explicitly accounts for the following aspects: that labor supply should adjust to changes in the tax-benefit model, general equilibrium effects and the heterogeneity of economic agents. This allows for a richer micro-household modeling.
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Thomas Koerber and Holger Schiele
This research aims to investigate the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic (C19, Corona) on trends of transcontinental sourcing as an extreme form of global sourcing. This…
Abstract
Purpose
This research aims to investigate the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic (C19, Corona) on trends of transcontinental sourcing as an extreme form of global sourcing. This study starts by observing that the sideward movement of international trade in the past decade can be differentiated into an increase in transcontinental sourcing and a relative decline of intra-EU sourcing. By differentiating between continental and transcontinental sourcing, this study gains insights into global sourcing trends and conducts a fine-grained analysis of the impact of COVID-19.
Design/methodology/approach
After analysing Eurostat statistics, the authors conducted 21 semi-structured interviews with companies from multiple industry sectors affected by a high share of transcontinental suppliers. Using the Gioia method, data from the interviews were structured. By examining the identified motives, challenges and solutions, the authors analyse the impact of COVID-19 on transcontinental sourcing.
Findings
The COVID-19 pandemic seems not to represent a turning point stopping global sourcing. The authors did not find evidence for a trend reversal. Most of the interviewed companies share the opinion that transcontinental sourcing will remain important or slightly increase in the future. Based on the analysis of their specific motives for transcontinental sourcing, it became clear that factors supportive as well as detrimental to transcontinental sourcing are levelling each other out.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study explicitly differentiating between continental and transcontinental sourcing as different types of global sourcing. While in European sourcing, a decreasing trend is already evident, as shown by our data analysis, there is a lack of investigations addressing transcontinental sourcing. In this study, the authors concentrated on motives, challenges and solutions of transcontinental sourcing. Extending beyond the immediate COVID-19 impact assessment, findings suggest that purchasing would benefit from treating transcontinental, remote sourcing as a distinct process from continental sourcing, particularly intra-EU-sourcing.
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