Search results

This study aims to develop a robust long short-term memory (LSTM)-based forecasting model for daily international tourist arrivals at Incheon International Airport (ICN), incorporating multiple predictors including exchange rates, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices, Korea composite stock price index data and new COVID-19 cases. By leveraging deep learning techniques and diverse data sets, the research seeks to enhance the accuracy and reliability of tourism demand predictions, contributing significantly to both theoretical implications and practical applications in the field of hospitality and tourism.

This study introduces an innovative approach to forecasting international tourist arrivals by leveraging LSTM networks. This advanced methodology addresses complex managerial issues in tourism management by providing more accurate forecasts. The methodology comprises four key steps: collecting data sets; preprocessing the data; training the LSTM network; and forecasting future international tourist arrivals. The rest of this study is structured as follows: the subsequent sections detail the proposed LSTM model, present the empirical results and discuss the findings, conclusions and the theoretical and practical implications of the study in the field of hospitality and tourism.

This research pioneers the simultaneous use of big data encompassing five factors – international tourist arrivals, exchange rates, WTI oil prices, KOSPI data and new COVID-19 cases – for daily forecasting. The study reveals that integrating exchange rates, oil prices, stock market data and COVID-19 cases significantly enhances LSTM network forecasting precision. It addresses the narrow scope of existing research on predicting international tourist arrivals at ICN with these factors. Moreover, the study demonstrates LSTM networks’ capability to effectively handle multivariable time series prediction problems, providing a robust basis for their application in hospitality and tourism management.

This research pioneers the integration of international tourist arrivals, exchange rates, WTI oil prices, KOSPI data and new COVID-19 cases for forecasting daily international tourist arrivals. It bridges the gap in existing literature by proposing a comprehensive approach that considers multiple predictors simultaneously. Furthermore, it demonstrates the effectiveness of LSTM networks in handling multivariable time series forecasting problems, offering practical insights for enhancing tourism demand predictions. By addressing these critical factors and leveraging advanced deep learning techniques, this study contributes significantly to the advancement of forecasting methodologies in the tourism industry, aiding decision-makers in effective planning and resource allocation.

本研究旨在开发一种基于LSTM的强大预测模型, 用于预测仁川国际机场的日常国际游客抵达量, 结合多种预测因素, 包括汇率、WTI原油价格、韩国综合股价指数 (KOSPI) 数据和新冠疫情病例。通过利用深度学习技术和多样化数据集, 研究旨在提升旅游需求预测的准确性和可靠性, 对酒店与旅游领域的理论和实际应用有重要贡献。

本研究通过利用长短期记忆（LSTM）网络引入创新方法, 预测国际游客抵达量。这一先进方法解决了旅游管理中的复杂管理问题, 提供了更精确的预测。方法论包括四个关键步骤: (1) 收集数据集; (2) 数据预处理; (3) 训练LSTM网络; 以及 (4) 预测未来的国际游客抵达量。本文的其余部分结构如下：后续部分详细介绍了提出的LSTM模型, 呈现了实证结果, 并讨论了研究的发现、结论以及在酒店与旅游领域的理论和实际意义。

本研究首次同时使用包括国际游客抵达量、汇率、原油价格、股市数据和新冠疫情病例在内的大数据进行日常预测。研究显示, 整合汇率、原油价格、股市数据和新冠疫情病例显著增强了LSTM网络的预测精度。研究填补了现有研究在使用这些因素预测仁川国际机场国际游客抵达量的狭窄范围。此外, 研究证明了LSTM网络在处理多变量时间序列预测问题上的能力, 为其在酒店与旅游管理中的应用提供了坚实基础。

本研究首次将国际游客抵达量、汇率、WTI原油价格、KOSPI数据和新冠疫情病例整合到日常国际游客抵达量的预测中。它通过提出同时考虑多个预测因素的全面方法, 弥合了现有文献的差距。此外, 研究展示了LSTM网络在处理多变量时间序列预测问题方面的有效性, 为增强旅游需求预测提供了实用见解。通过处理这些关键因素并利用先进的深度学习技术, 本研究在旅游业预测方法的进步中做出了重要贡献, 帮助决策者进行有效的规划和资源配置。

This chapter explores how new tourism policy paradigms can emerge and settle in a wicked-problems scenario characterised by high labour informality. Acknowledging the growing importance of the tourism sector in Argentina, where labour informality has long been a concern, the authors focus on an ambitious and unprecedented tourism policy: PreViaje. Established in 2020, PreViaje is a program that promotes the selling of tourism services in advance to residents travelling within Argentina. It is designed around incentives to encourage formality via both tourism supply and demand. After looking at the outcomes of PreViaje, relevant matters to consider for future program editions are identified. These relate to temporal and spatial dispersal concerns, and trade-offs regarding economic, social and environmental matters.

The adoption and usage of information and communication technology (ICT) has introduced transformation in the tourism arena with ICT applications extensively used in tourism industry. In addition to ICT, an advanced infrastructure is essential for the development of tourism industry. Thus, the goal of present research is to probe the impact of ICT and infrastructure on tourism development (TD) in 28 Asian economies using method of moments panel quantile regression (MM-QR) model introduced by Machado and Silva (2019) applied to a panel data from 2008 to 2020. Empirical findings demonstrate that there is an asymmetric non-linear effect of ICT and infrastructure through all quantile range. This indicates that ICT has negative effect on TD in poor countries while positive impact in rich countries. Negative impact in poor countries may be due to higher establishment cost and information technology (IT) productivity paradox. However, results confirm the importance of ICT and infrastructure in endorsing the development of tourism sector in Asian nations by lessening time and money costs and facilitating travelers.

By using a wide range of macro and micro factors, this paper aims to provide a new assessment of the recent literature on inbound tourism demand models.

This study examines the determinants and spatial effects of inbound tourism using Hausman–Taylor and spatial econometric models.

Several important factors were identified, including local economic growth, openness to the outside world, regional size, geographic distance, foreign direct investment, level of innovation and average annual temperature. In addition, the study found strong cross-city competition effects on tourism resource endowment and hotel infrastructure.

Inbound tourism is a crucial link in achieving high-quality economic development. However, previous studies have mainly focused on the analysis of single influencing factors, ignoring the spatial spillover effects of factors.

Land is the basis for economic development as well as tourism development. There is a close relationship between tourism development and the land market. However, research on the effect of tourism development on land prices is insufficient. This paper aims to investigate the effect and mechanism of tourism development on land prices.

The econometric paradigm is the main research method. Fixed effect models, instrumental variable models and mediating effect models are introduced to examine the impact of tourism development on land prices. The data include three types: land transaction data, city-level data and scenic spot data. More than 360,000 samples of land transactions for 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2021 are applied.

Tourism development can significantly increase land prices. This conclusion holds after using instrumental variables to address endogeneity and testing for robustness. Meanwhile, tourism development’s effect on land price is influenced by land type, city type, city tier and city location. The land price increase effect of tourism is more significant for tourism land, tourist cities, central cities and Western cities. The paper also reveals the mechanisms of the public service enhancement effect, infrastructure upgrading effect and environmental optimization effect in tourism development’s effect on land price.

The study contributes to the literature on the relationship between tourism development and land market. The generality and specificity of tourism development’s effect on land price are revealed from the micro and macrolevel research level. The findings enrich the literature on tourism price effects, point to rational ways to optimize and regulate land prices and provide new ideas for land-market development.

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant declines in international tourist arrivals and receipts. It has also influenced destination preference, tourist demographic, travel motivation, and behavior. Recognizing health and safety as the new considerations in pursuing tourism activities in the better normal, this necessitated a reassessment of the current tourism industry by directing the attention from the usual destination-centric perspective to a value chain perspective. This chapter proposes a new paradigm for the better normal value chain by deconstructing the concepts of travel, tourism, and travel sectors and revisiting the concept of the tourism value chain (TVC) by mapping out the chain and its functional levels and integrating travel, tourism, and hospitality sectors in one value chain. Policymaking approaches such as reorganizing the value chain, empowering stakeholder involvement through coopetition, and resilience building in the face of possible adversities in the future should be adapted to achieve this suggested paradigm's goals. This analysis provides stakeholders with a broader understanding of the needed interventions in future-proofing the industry backed by industry trends in the better normal while fostering collaboration and offering flexibility to cope better in other possible shocks in the future.

This study explores the spatial and temporal relationship between tourism activities and transportation-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the United States (US) from 2003 to 2022 using advanced geospatial modeling techniques.

The research integrated geographic information systems (GIS) to map tourist attractions against high-resolution annual emissions data. The analysis covered 3,108 US counties, focusing on county-level attraction densities and annual on-road CO₂ emission patterns. Advanced spatial analysis techniques, including bivariate mapping and local bivariate relationship testing, were employed to assess potential correlations.

The findings reveal limited evidence of significant associations between tourism activities and transportation-based CO₂ emissions around major urban centers, with decreases observed in Eastern states and the Midwest, particularly in non-coastal areas, from 2003 to 2022. Most counties (86.03%) show no statistically significant relationship between changes in tourism density and on-road CO₂ emissions. However, 1.90% of counties show a positive linear relationship, 2.64% a negative linear relationship, 0.29% a concave relationship, 1.61% a convex relationship and 7.63% a complex, undefined relationship. Despite this, the 110% national growth in tourism output and resource consumption from 2003–2022 raises potential sustainability concerns.

To tackle sustainability issues in tourism, policymakers and stakeholders can integrate emissions accounting, climate modeling and sustainability governance. Effective interventions are vital for balancing tourism demands with climate resilience efforts promoting social equity and environmental justice.

This study’s innovative application of geospatial modeling and comprehensive spatial analysis provides new insights into the complex relationship between tourism activities and CO₂ emissions. The research highlights the challenges in isolating tourism’s specific impacts on emissions and underscores the need for more granular geographic assessments or comprehensive emission inventories to fully understand tourism’s environmental footprint.

This study aims to investigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on Italian hospitality sector. The investigation attempts to explain whether hotel performance drops when the perceived economic uncertainty increases in the period 2018–2022.

The study examines the impact of EPU on hotel performance in a sample of 661 Italian luxury hotels. To establish the relationship between EPU and hotel performance, we employ the generalized estimating equations (GEE) technique on 3,305 hotel-year observations.

The results show that EPU has a negative impact on hotel performance. More specifically, the analysis reveals that EPU is negatively and significantly related to the revenue per available room (REVPAR), average daily rate (ADR) and hotel occupancy (OCCR). We also look at the role of hotel brand chain affiliation and the moderating effect of conference space and hotel wellness services on the relationship between EPU and hotel performance.

Results provide new evidence for academics to critically evaluate the behavior of luxury hotels under uncertain economic conditions. The investigation offers valuable information also for government, tourism policymakers, tourist hotel owners, hoteliers and tourism managers in their decision-making.

This study provides strategic implications for practitioners and operators in hospitality industry to evaluate the factors ensuring hotel profitability in periods of EPU.

This paper provides interesting insights into the characteristics and practices of profitable hotels in Italy. Few econometric studies empirically explored the effects of EPU in the hospitality field so far and no prior study investigated this topic in the Italian hospitality sector. Therefore, this paper tries to close an important gap in the existing literature improving the understanding of EPU in the Italian hospitality industry.

The purpose of this paper is to have a deeper understanding of the nonlinear relationship between the impact of climate change on tourism development. Current studies on the effects of climate change on tourism development primarily rely on linear correlation assumptions.

Based on the New Institutional Economics theory, the institutional setting inherently motivates and ensures the growth of the tourism industry. For a precise evaluation of the nonlinear consequences of climate change on tourism, this paper concentrates on Chinese cities between 2011 and 2021, methodically analyzing the influence of climate change on tourism.

The study findings suggest that there is an “inverse U”-shaped nonlinear relationship between climate change and tourism development, initially strengthening and subsequently weakening. Based on these findings, the research further delves into how institutional contexts shape the nonlinear association between climate change and tourism growth. It was found that in a higher institutional backdrop, the “inverse U” curve tends to flatten and surpass the curve adjusted for a lesser institutional context. Upon deeper mechanism analysis, it was observed that cities with more advanced marketization, improved industrial restructuring and enhanced educational growth exhibit a more evident “inverse U”-shaped nonlinear connection between climate change and tourism evolution.

First, previous studies on climate change and tourism development largely rely on questionnaire data (Hu et al., 2022). In contrast to these studies, this paper uses dynamic panel data, which to some extent overcomes the subjectivity and difficulty of causality identification in questionnaire data, making our research conclusions more accurate and reliable. Second, this study breaks through the linear relationship hypothesis of previous literature regarding climate change and tourism development. By evaluating the nonlinear relationship of climate change to tourism development from the institutional pressure perspective, it more intricately delineates their interplay mechanism, expanding and supplementing the research literature on the relationship mechanism between climate change and tourism development. Thirdly, the conclusions of this study are beneficial for policymakers to better understand and assess the scope of climate change impacts. It also aids relevant departments in clarifying the direction of institutional environment optimization to elevate the level of tourism development when faced with adverse impacts brought about by climate change.

This study aims to determine the effects of lodging infrastructure development (LID) on Cordillera Administrative Region’s (CAR) environmental quality and natural resource management and its implication to globally responsible leadership. Specifically, this study sought to determine the contribution of LID to environmental deterioration and natural resource degradation in the CAR. As a result, a mathematical model is developed, which supports sustainability practices to maintain the environmental quality and natural resource management in CAR, Philippines.

This study used a descriptive research design using a mixed-methods approach. Self-structured interview and survey were used to gather the data. The population of this study involved three groups. There were 6.28% (34) experts in the field for the qualitative data, 70.24% (380) respondents for the quantitative data and 23.47% (127) from the lodging establishments. 120 respondents from the Department of Tourism – CAR (DOT-CAR) accredited hotels. Nonparametric and nonlinear regression analysis was used to process the data.

The effects of LID on the environmental quality and natural resource management in CAR as measured through carbon emission from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), electricity and water consumption in the occupied guest rooms revealed a direct correlation between the LID. Findings conclude that the increase in tourist arrival is a trigger factor in the increase in LID in the CAR. The increase in LID implies a rise in carbon emission in the lodging infrastructure. Any increase in tourist arrivals increases lodging room occupancy; the increased lodging room occupancy contributes to carbon emissions. Thus, tourism trends contribute to the deterioration of the environmental quality and degradation of the natural resources in the CAR. A log-log model shows the percentage change in the average growth of tourist arrival and the percentage increase in carbon emissions. Establishments should observe standard room capacity to maintain the carbon emission of occupied lodging rooms at a minimum. Responsible leadership is a factor in the implementation of policy on standard room capacity.

The result of the study has some implications for the lodging businesses, the local government unit (LGU), the Department of Tourism (DOT) and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) in the CAR. The study highlights the contribution of the lodging establishments to CO₂ emission, which can degrade the quality of the environment, and the implication of responsible leadership in managing natural resources in the CAR. The direct inverse relationship between energy use and CO₂ emission in hotels indicates that increased energy consumption leads to environmental degradation (Ahmad et al., 2018). Therefore, responsible leadership among policymakers in the lodging and government sectors – LGU, DOT and DENR – should abound in the CAR. Benchmarking on the model embarked from this study can help in designing and/or enhancing the policy on room capacity standardization, considering the total area with its maximum capacity to keep the carbon emission at a lower rate. Furthermore, as a responsible leader in the community, one should create programs that regulate the number of tourists visiting the place to decrease the number of overnight stays. Besides, having the political will to implement reduced room occupancy throughout the lodging establishments in CAR can help reduce the carbon emissions from the lodging businesses. After all, one of the aims of the International Environment Protection Organization is to reduce CO₂ emissions in the tourism industry. Hence, responsible leadership in environmental quality preservation and sustainable natural resource management must help prevent and avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Most studies about carbon emission in the environment tackle about carbon dioxide emitted by transportation and factories. This study adds to the insights on the existing information about the carbon emission in the environment from the lodging establishments through the use of LPG, electricity and water consumption in the occupied guest rooms. The findings of the study open an avenue for globally responsible leadership in sustaining environmental quality and preservation of natural resources by revisiting and amending the policies on the number of room occupancy, guidelines and standardization, considering the total lodging area with its maximum capacity to keep the carbon emission at a minimum, thus contributing to the lowering of GHG emissions from the lodging industry.