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1 – 10 of over 5000Zengli Mao and Chong Wu
Because the dynamic characteristics of the stock market are nonlinear, it is unclear whether stock prices can be predicted. This paper aims to explore the predictability of the…
Abstract
Purpose
Because the dynamic characteristics of the stock market are nonlinear, it is unclear whether stock prices can be predicted. This paper aims to explore the predictability of the stock price index from a long-memory perspective. The authors propose hybrid models to predict the next-day closing price index and explore the policy effects behind stock prices. The paper aims to discuss the aforementioned ideas.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors found a long memory in the stock price index series using modified R/S and GPH tests, and propose an improved bi-directional gated recurrent units (BiGRU) hybrid network framework to predict the next-day stock price index. The proposed framework integrates (1) A de-noising module—Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) algorithm, (2) a predictive module—BiGRU model, and (3) an optimization module—Grid Search Cross-validation (GSCV) algorithm.
Findings
Three critical findings are long memory, fit effectiveness and model optimization. There is long memory (predictability) in the stock price index series. The proposed framework yields predictions of optimum fit. Data de-noising and parameter optimization can improve the model fit.
Practical implications
The empirical data are obtained from the financial data of listed companies in the Wind Financial Terminal. The model can accurately predict stock price index series, guide investors to make reasonable investment decisions, and provide a basis for establishing individual industry stock investment strategies.
Social implications
If the index series in the stock market exhibits long-memory characteristics, the policy implication is that fractal markets, even in the nonlinear case, allow for a corresponding distribution pattern in the value of portfolio assets. The risk of stock price volatility in various sectors has expanded due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the R-U conflict on the stock market. Predicting future trends by forecasting stock prices is critical for minimizing financial risk. The ability to mitigate the epidemic’s impact and stop losses promptly is relevant to market regulators, companies and other relevant stakeholders.
Originality/value
Although long memory exists, the stock price index series can be predicted. However, price fluctuations are unstable and chaotic, and traditional mathematical and statistical methods cannot provide precise predictions. The network framework proposed in this paper has robust horizontal connections between units, strong memory capability and stronger generalization ability than traditional network structures. The authors demonstrate significant performance improvements of SSA-BiGRU-GSCV over comparison models on Chinese stocks.
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Tipajin Thaipisutikul and Yi-Cheng Chen
Tourism spot or point-of-interest (POI) recommendation has become a common service in people's daily life. The purpose of this paper is to model users' check-in history in order…
Abstract
Purpose
Tourism spot or point-of-interest (POI) recommendation has become a common service in people's daily life. The purpose of this paper is to model users' check-in history in order to predict a set of locations that a user may soon visit.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors proposed a novel learning-based method, the pattern-based dual learning POI recommendation system as a solution to consider users' interests and the uniformity of popular POI patterns when making recommendations. Differing from traditional long short-term memory (LSTM), a new users’ regularity–POIs’ popularity patterns long short-term memory (UP-LSTM) model was developed to concurrently combine the behaviors of a specific user and common users.
Findings
The authors introduced the concept of dual learning for POI recommendation. Several performance evaluations were conducted on real-life mobility data sets to demonstrate the effectiveness and practicability of POI recommendations. The metrics such as hit rate, precision, recall and F-measure were used to measure the capability of ranking and precise prediction of the proposed model over all baselines. The experimental results indicated that the proposed UP-LSTM model consistently outperformed the state-of-the-art models in all metrics by a large margin.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the existing literature by incorporating a novel pattern–based technique to analyze how the popularity of POIs affects the next move of a particular user. Also, the authors have proposed an effective fusing scheme to boost the prediction performance in the proposed UP-LSTM model. The experimental results and discussions indicate that the combination of the user's regularity and the POIs’ popularity patterns in PDLRec could significantly enhance the performance of POI recommendation.
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Yi-Cheng Chen and Yen-Liang Chen
In this “Info-plosion” era, recommendation systems (or recommenders) play a significant role in finding interesting items in the surge of online digital activity and e-commerce…
Abstract
Purpose
In this “Info-plosion” era, recommendation systems (or recommenders) play a significant role in finding interesting items in the surge of online digital activity and e-commerce. The purpose of this paper is to model users' preference evolution to recommend potential items which users may be interested in.
Design/methodology/approach
A novel recommendation system, namely evolution-learning recommendation (ELR), is developed to precisely predict user interest for making recommendations. Differing from prior related methods, the authors integrate the matrix factorization (MF) and recurrent neural network (RNN) to effectively describe the variation of user preferences over time.
Findings
A novel cumulative factorization technique is proposed to efficiently decompose a rating matrix for discovering latent user preferences. Compared to traditional MF-based methods, the cumulative MF could reduce the utilization of computation resources. Furthermore, the authors depict the significance of long- and short-term effects in the memory cell of RNN for evolution patterns. With the context awareness, a learning model, V-LSTM, is developed to dynamically capture the evolution pattern of user interests. By using a well-trained learning model, the authors predict future user preferences and recommend related items.
Originality/value
Based on the relations among users and items for recommendation, the authors introduce a novel concept, virtual communication, to effectively learn and estimate the correlation among users and items. By incorporating the discovered latent features of users and items in an evolved manner, the proposed ELR model could promote “right” things to “right” users at the “right” time. In addition, several extensive experiments are performed on real datasets and are discussed. Empirical results show that ELR significantly outperforms the prior recommendation models. The proposed ELR exhibits great generalization and robustness in real datasets, including e-commerce, industrial retail and streaming service, with all discussed metrics.
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Briefly reviews previous literature by the author before presenting an original 12 step system integration protocol designed to ensure the success of companies or countries in…
Abstract
Briefly reviews previous literature by the author before presenting an original 12 step system integration protocol designed to ensure the success of companies or countries in their efforts to develop and market new products. Looks at the issues from different strategic levels such as corporate, international, military and economic. Presents 31 case studies, including the success of Japan in microchips to the failure of Xerox to sell its invention of the Alto personal computer 3 years before Apple: from the success in DNA and Superconductor research to the success of Sunbeam in inventing and marketing food processors: and from the daring invention and production of atomic energy for survival to the successes of sewing machine inventor Howe in co‐operating on patents to compete in markets. Includes 306 questions and answers in order to qualify concepts introduced.
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Vikram Maditham, N. Sudhakar Reddy and Madhavi Kasa
The deep learning-based recommender framework (DLRF) is based on an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) structure with additional controllers; thus, it considers contextual…
Abstract
Purpose
The deep learning-based recommender framework (DLRF) is based on an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) structure with additional controllers; thus, it considers contextual information for state transition. It also handles irregularities in the data to enhance performance in generating recommendations while modelling short-term preferences. An algorithm named a multi-preference integrated algorithm (MPIA) is proposed to have dynamic integration of both kinds of user preferences aforementioned. Extensive experiments are made using Amazon benchmark datasets, and the results are compared with many existing recommender systems (RSs).
Design/methodology/approach
RSs produce quality information filtering to the users based on their preferences. In the contemporary era, online RSs-based collaborative filtering (CF) techniques are widely used to model long-term preferences of users. With deep learning models, such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs), it became viable to model short-term preferences of users. In the existing RSs, there is a lack of dynamic integration of both long- and short-term preferences. In this paper, the authors proposed a DLRF for improving the state of the art in modelling short-term preferences and generating recommendations as well.
Findings
The results of the empirical study revealed that the MPIA outperforms existing algorithms in terms of performance measured using metrics such as area under the curve (AUC) and F1-score. The percentage of improvement in terms AUC is observed as 1.3, 2.8, 3 and 1.9% and in terms of F-1 score 0.98, 2.91, 2 and 2.01% on the datasets.
Originality/value
The algorithm uses attention-based approaches to integrate the preferences by incorporating contextual information.
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Tan Zhang, Zhanying Huang, Ming Lu, Jiawei Gu and Yanxue Wang
Rotating machinery is a crucial component of large equipment, and detecting faults in it accurately is critical for reliable operation. Although fault diagnosis methods based on…
Abstract
Purpose
Rotating machinery is a crucial component of large equipment, and detecting faults in it accurately is critical for reliable operation. Although fault diagnosis methods based on deep learning have been significantly developed, the existing methods model spatial and temporal features separately and then weigh them, resulting in the decoupling of spatiotemporal features.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors propose a spatiotemporal long short-term memory (ST-LSTM) method for fault diagnosis of rotating machinery. The authors collected vibration signals from real rolling bearing and gearing test rigs for verification.
Findings
Through these two experiments, the authors demonstrate that machine learning methods still have advantages on small-scale data sets, but our proposed method exhibits a significant advantage due to the simultaneous modeling of the time domain and space domain. These results indicate the potential of the interactive spatiotemporal modeling method for fault diagnosis of rotating machinery.
Originality/value
The authors propose a ST-LSTM method for fault diagnosis of rotating machinery. The authors collected vibration signals from real rolling bearing and gearing test rigs for verification.
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A recommendation system for an extended process of information retrieval in distributed information systems is proposed. This system is both a model of dynamic cognitive…
Abstract
A recommendation system for an extended process of information retrieval in distributed information systems is proposed. This system is both a model of dynamic cognitive categorization processes and powerful real application useful for knowledge management. It utilizes an extension of fuzzy sets named evidence sets as the mathematical mechanisms to implement the categorization processes. It is a development of some aspects of Pask’s conversation theory. It is also an instance of the notion of linguistic‐based selected self‐organization here described, and as such it instantiates an open‐ended semiosis between distributed information systems and the communities of users they interact with. This means that the knowledge stored in distributed information resources adapts to the evolving semantic expectations of their users as these select the information they desire in conversation with the information resources. This way, this recommendation system establishes a mechanism for user‐driven knowledge self‐organization.
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Feng Qian, Yongsheng Tu, Chenyu Hou and Bin Cao
Automatic modulation recognition (AMR) is a challenging problem in intelligent communication systems and has wide application prospects. At present, although many AMR methods…
Abstract
Purpose
Automatic modulation recognition (AMR) is a challenging problem in intelligent communication systems and has wide application prospects. At present, although many AMR methods based on deep learning have been proposed, the methods proposed by these works cannot be directly applied to the actual wireless communication scenario, because there are usually two kinds of dilemmas when recognizing the real modulated signal, namely, long sequence and noise. This paper aims to effectively process in-phase quadrature (IQ) sequences of very long signals interfered by noise.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper proposes a general model for a modulation classifier based on a two-layer nested structure of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, called a two-layer nested structure (TLN)-LSTM, which exploits the time sensitivity of LSTM and the ability of the nested network structure to extract more features, and can achieve effective processing of ultra-long signal IQ sequences collected from real wireless communication scenarios that are interfered by noise.
Findings
Experimental results show that our proposed model has higher recognition accuracy for five types of modulation signals, including amplitude modulation, frequency modulation, gaussian minimum shift keying, quadrature phase shift keying and differential quadrature phase shift keying, collected from real wireless communication scenarios. The overall classification accuracy of the proposed model for these signals can reach 73.11%, compared with 40.84% for the baseline model. Moreover, this model can also achieve high classification performance for analog signals with the same modulation method in the public data set HKDD_AMC36.
Originality/value
At present, although many AMR methods based on deep learning have been proposed, these works are based on the model’s classification results of various modulated signals in the AMR public data set to evaluate the signal recognition performance of the proposed method rather than collecting real modulated signals for identification in actual wireless communication scenarios. The methods proposed in these works cannot be directly applied to actual wireless communication scenarios. Therefore, this paper proposes a new AMR method, dedicated to the effective processing of the collected ultra-long signal IQ sequences that are interfered by noise.
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Luis Felipe Gómez and Dawna I. Ballard
The concept that an organization's actions or inactions constrain or enhance its future options and outcomes and – ultimately – its long-term survival, is here referred to as the…
Abstract
The concept that an organization's actions or inactions constrain or enhance its future options and outcomes and – ultimately – its long-term survival, is here referred to as the organization's viability. Following a dynamic capabilities framework, we identify two communication practices that help develop both transactive memory systems and a firm's long-term viability, information allocation and collective reflexivity, and call for the development of others. We discuss the interrelationship of these two practices as nurturing the development of transactive memory systems critical for organizational long-term viability. We then discuss organizational structures that prompt or constrain the development of these two communication practices – organizational members’ perceived environmental uncertainty, perceptions of time as scarce, feedback cycles between actions and outcomes, and organizational members’ temporal focus – and offer propositions concerning these relationships. We emphasize the relevance of TMS through the exploration of three characteristics of the relationship between TMS and the long-term viability of organizations. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for organizational development practitioners for fostering TMS through the facilitation of sites for collective reflexivity.
According to the problem of crude oil price forecasting, the purpose of this paper is to propose a multi-step prediction method based on the empirical mode decomposition, long…
Abstract
Purpose
According to the problem of crude oil price forecasting, the purpose of this paper is to propose a multi-step prediction method based on the empirical mode decomposition, long short-term memory network and GM (1,1) model.
Design/methodology/approach
First, the empirical mode decomposition method is used to decompose the crude oil price series into several components with different frequencies. Then, each subsequence is classified and synthesized based on the specific periodicity and other properties to obtain several components with different significant characteristics. Finally, all components are substituted into a suitable prediction model for fitting. LSTM models with different parameters are constructed for predicting specific components, which approximately and respectively represent short-term market disturbance and long-term influences. Rolling GM (1,1) model is constructed to simulate a series representing the development trend of oil price. Eventually, all results obtained from forecasting models are summarized to evaluate the performance of the model.
Findings
The model is respectively applied to simulate daily, weekly and monthly WTI crude oil price sequences. The results show that the model has high accuracy on the prediction, especially in terms of series representing long-term influences with lower frequency. GM (1,1) model has excellent performance on fitting the trend of crude oil price.
Originality/value
This paper combines GM (1,1) model with LSTM network to forecast WTI crude oil price series. According to the different characteristics of different sequences, suitable forecasting models are constructed to simulate the components.
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