Search results
1 – 10 of 37Olusegun Felix Ayadi and Oluseun A. Paseda
The study aims to examine the appropriateness of the coefficient of elasticity of trading (CET) as a measure of liquidity using Nigerian stock market data. Given that liquidity is…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to examine the appropriateness of the coefficient of elasticity of trading (CET) as a measure of liquidity using Nigerian stock market data. Given that liquidity is multidimensional, the CET is complemented with the popular measure of liquidity, turnover ratio to explore the causal relationship among the CET, turnover ratio and market return to determine their relevance in security valuation. In other words, an attempt is made to examine if either of these two measures of liquidity is a relevant factor in explaining stock market return.
Design/methodology/approach
The Toda-Yamamoto version of Granger causality test is applied to two sets of data on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). The available monthly time series data are from 2008 to 2019 while the annual data are from 1986 to 2018. The Toda-Yamamoto test is preferred because it is more robust to integration and cointegration of the variables.
Findings
The results of the Toda-Yamamoto version of the Granger causality test on monthly data reveal no causal relationship between CET and market return, turnover and market return and CET with turnover and market return. These results are consistent with those for several frontier countries reported by Rubio et al. (2005), Hartian and Sitorus (2015), Batten and Vo (2019) and Sterenczak et al. (2020). The results support the conclusion that the Nigerian economy is not fully integrated with the global economy. Market inefficiency due to order imbalances given the nature of the trading system can also explain the reported results. However, the results from annual data do not tally with the monthly results. There is causality running from CET to market return. There is also causality running from turnover to market return. Therefore, both CET and turnover are statistically significant causal predictors of market return. The results from annual data are consistent with those reported by Marozva (2019).
Research limitations/implications
The key limitation is availability of high-frequency transaction-level data to researchers to consider many measures of liquidity that have been employed in developed countries. The research implication is that more researchers will be encouraged to conduct more studies on liquidity and how the study results can drive policy recommendations. The standard asymptotic distribution of underlying the Toda-Yamamoto approach has been found to lead to overrejection.
Originality/value
This study is the first to apply Toda-Yamamoto model on data from Nigeria to investigate the causal relationship between stock market return and liquidity proxied by the CET given the nature of the automated trading system (ATS) in use. The CET is also complemented with the turnover ratio to explore the multidimensional nature of liquidity and its causal relationship with market return. The study is also interpreted as a determination of the integration of Nigeria's economy with the global economy with its implication on investment diversification.
Details
Keywords
This study aims to examine the influence of socioeconomic development on inflation in South Asia using the foreign exchange rate and money supply as control variables.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the influence of socioeconomic development on inflation in South Asia using the foreign exchange rate and money supply as control variables.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses annual panel data for five South Asian economies, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka over the period 1990–2018, applies cointegrating regression techniques, namely, the panel dynamic ordinary least square (OLS) and fully modified OLS estimators to examine the long-run relations and conducts the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test to detect the direction of causality among variables.
Findings
The cointegrating regression estimations have documented that the socioeconomic development proxied by the human development index (HDI) has no significant impact on inflation. Although economic development represented by gross domestic product (GDP) growth causes inflation, socioeconomic development represented by HDI has no impact on inflation and has demonstrated as a better macroeconomic indicator, and thus creates no inflationary pressure in the economy. The foreign exchange rate has a positive impact on inflation. The broad money supply has the usual positive effect on domestic inflation that endorses the monetarist view about prices. The Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test has confirmed several unidirectional causalities: inflation causes HDI, money supply causes both inflation and HDI and the foreign exchange rate causes HDI.
Practical implications
The study has practical implications for policymakers in South Asia, to improve HDI, particularly GDP per capita, education and health-care facilities to realize continuous socioeconomic development, which will take care of inflation. Moreover, these counties may follow a conservative monetary policy to control inflationary pressure in their economies.
Originality/value
The study is original and claims to be the first to examine the impact of socioeconomic development on inflation. The findings have socioeconomic values regarding controlling inflation in South Asia.
Details
Keywords
Wilkista Lore Obiero and Seher Gülşah Topuz
This study aims to determine whether there is an effect of internal and public debt on income inequality in Kenya for the period 1970–2018.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to determine whether there is an effect of internal and public debt on income inequality in Kenya for the period 1970–2018.
Design/methodology/approach
The relationship is examined by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Toda Yamamoto causality by Toda and Yamamoto (1995).
Findings
Our findings suggest that both internal and public debt harm inequality in Kenya in the long term. Furthermore, a one-way causality from internal debt to income inequality is also obtained while no causality relationship is found to exist between public debt and income inequality. Based on these findings, the study recommends that to reduce income inequality levels in Kenya, other methods of financing other than debt financing should be preferred because debt financing is not pro-poor.
Originality/value
This study is unique based on the fact that no previous paper has analysed the debt and inequality relationship in Kenya. To the best of our knowledge, this will be the first study to analyse the applicability of redistribution effect of debt in Kenya. The study is also different in that it provides separate analysis for public debt and internal debt on their effects on income inequality.
Details
Keywords
Mohammad Rifat Rahman, Md. Mufidur Rahman and Roksana Akter
This study aims to investigate the interplay between renewable energy development, unemployment and GDP growth within Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The research…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the interplay between renewable energy development, unemployment and GDP growth within Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The research underscores the significant role of renewable energy plays in stimulating economic growth and mitigating unemployment, offering crucial policy insights for sustainable growth in South Asia.
Design/methodology/approach
Utilizing the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) framework and Toda Yamamoto causality through the vector autoregressive (VAR) approach, the study analyzes the long-term and short-term impacts of these variables from 1990 to 2019.
Findings
This study reveals a significant co-integration among renewable energy consumption, unemployment and GDP growth in selected South Asian countries. The long-term estimation shows renewable energy consumption influences negatively economic progression in Bangladesh, with no notable correlation with unemployment. In contrast, Sri Lanka demonstrates an optimal relationship among all the variables. Short-run assessments reveal a significant positive relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in India, while an inverse relationship is evident in Pakistan. Moreover, the relationship between unemployment and economic progression, the result shows a negative and significant relationship in India and Sri Lanka.
Research limitations/implications
The study emphasizes the need for policy development concerning renewable energy development, unemployment reduction and sustainable economic growth in South Asia. While limitations exist, future research can expand upon this work by incorporating varied data, additional countries or alternative modeling techniques.
Originality/value
This research offers a unique exploration into the multidimensional impacts of renewable energy consumption, unemployment and economic growth in the South Asian context, an area previously unexplored in such depth.
Details
Keywords
Clement Olalekan Olaniyi and Nicholas M. Odhiambo
This study examines the roles of cross-sectional dependence, asymmetric structure and country-to-country policy variations in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus in…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the roles of cross-sectional dependence, asymmetric structure and country-to-country policy variations in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus in selected sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1981 to 2019.
Design/methodology/approach
To account for cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity and policy variations across countries in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus, this study uses robust Hatemi-J data decomposition procedures and a battery of second-generation techniques. These techniques include cross-sectional dependency tests, panel unit root tests, slope homogeneity tests and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger non-causality approach.
Findings
Unlike existing studies, the panel and country-specific findings exhibit several dimensions of asymmetric causality in the inflation-poverty nexus. Positive inflationary shocks Granger-causes poverty reduction through investment and employment opportunities that benefit the impoverished in SSA. These findings align with country-specific analyses of Botswana, Cameroon, Gabon, Mauritania, South Africa and Togo. Also, a decline in poverty causes inflation to increase in the Congo Republic, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo. All panel and country-specific analyses reveal at least one dimension of asymmetric causality or another.
Practical implications
All stakeholders and policymakers must pay adequate attention to issues of asymmetric structures, nonlinearities and country-to-country policy variations to address country-specific issues and the socioeconomic problems in the probable causal nexus between the high incidence of extreme poverty and double-digit inflation rates in most SSA countries.
Originality/value
Studies on the inflation-poverty nexus are not uncommon in economic literature. Most existing studies focus on inflation’s effect on poverty. Existing studies that examine the inflation-poverty causal relationship covertly assume no asymmetric structure and nonlinearity. Also, the issues of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity are unexplored in the causal link in existing studies. All panel studies covertly impose homogeneous policies on countries in the causality. This study relaxes this supposition by allowing policies to vary across countries in the panel framework. Thus, this study makes three-dimensional contributions to increasing understanding of the inflation-poverty nexus.
Details
Keywords
Mucahit Aydin, Ugur Korkut Pata and Veysel Inal
The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock prices during the period from March 2003 to March 2021.
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock prices during the period from March 2003 to March 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses asymmetric and symmetric frequency domain causality tests and focuses on BRIC countries, namely, Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Findings
The findings of the symmetric causality test confirm unidirectional permanent causality from EPU to stock prices for Brazil and India and bidirectional causality for China. However, according to the asymmetric causality test, the findings for China show that there is no causality between the variables. The results for Brazil and India indicate that there is unidirectional permanent causality from positive components of EPU to positive components of stock prices. Moreover, for Brazil, there is unidirectional temporary causality from the negative components of EPU to the negative components of stock prices. For India, there is temporary causality in the opposite direction.
Originality/value
The reactions of financial markets to positive and negative shocks differ. In this context, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt to examine the causal relationships between stock prices and uncertainty using an asymmetric frequency domain approach. Thus, the study enables the analysis of the effects of positive and negative shocks in the stock market separately.
Details
Keywords
The study aims to investigate the nexus between total factor productivity and tourism growth in Latin American countries for time series data from 1995 to 2017.
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to investigate the nexus between total factor productivity and tourism growth in Latin American countries for time series data from 1995 to 2017.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the extension of the Granger noncausality test in the nonlinear time-varying of Ajmi et al. (2015), the study points out the interconnectedness between the variables during the period.
Findings
The study found nonlinear causality between the variables. Particularly, studying the conclusions for the time-varying Granger causality fashion, it can be noticed that the one-way causality from total factor productivity to tourism growth is obtained for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Uruguay and Venezuela, while the vice versa is confirmed for Chile, Ecuador and Nicaragua. Lastly, the study dissected the plots of the curve causality.
Practical implications
In view of the results, some crucial policy implications could be suggested, such as, under certain circumstances and as an exceptional case, the use of policy instruments such as targeted investment, marketing and the support of tourism organizations focused on driving a tourism-led-based productivity and/or tourism programs and projects.
Originality/value
The current work is distinguished from the existing body of understanding in several substantial directions. This work explores, for the first time, the linkages between the total factor productivity index and tourism growth for Latin American countries. No single attempt has been known to investigate this interaction by using nonlinear causality, and this study determines the shape of the curve between the total factor productivity index and tourism growth for each country.
Details
Keywords
Chi Aloysius Ngong, Chinyere Onyejiaku, Dobdinga Cletus Fonchamnyo and Josaphat Uchechukwu Joe Onwumere
This paper investigates the impact of bank credit on agricultural productivity in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) from 1990 to 2019. Studies’ results…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper investigates the impact of bank credit on agricultural productivity in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) from 1990 to 2019. Studies’ results on the impact of bank credit on agricultural productivity are not conclusive. The studies demonstrate diverse outcomes which are debatable. The results are conflicting.
Design/methodology/approach
Agricultural value added (AGRVA) to the gross domestic product (GDP) proxies agricultural productivity while domestic credit to the private sector by banks (DCPSB), broad money supply, land, inflation (INF), physical capital (PHKAP) and labour supply are explanatory variables. The autoregressive distributed lag technique is utilized.
Findings
The co-integration test results show a long-run co-integration among the variables. The findings disclose that DCPSB, land and PHKAP impact positively on the AGRVA. Broad money supply, INF and labour impact negatively on the AGRVA to the GDP.
Research limitations/implications
The results suggest that the CEMAC governments should encourage effective ways to increase bank credit flow to private enterprises in the agricultural sector through efficient bank's intermediation.
Practical implications
The governments should create more agricultural banks and improve the operation of existing ones to ensure direct credit to agricultural activities. The Bank of Central African Economic and Monetary Community should apply aggressive policy which eliminates all the bottlenecks undermining credit flow to the private sector in mutualism with agricultural productivity.
Social implications
The commercial banks should give more credit to private sector to mutually benefit the agricultural sector and the banking sector. The governments of the CEMAC economies should expand funding into the capital market which considerably boosts agricultural productivity.
Originality/value
Studies’ results on the impact of bank credit on agricultural productivity are not conclusive. The studies demonstrate diverse outcomes which are debatable. The results are conflicting; some reveal positive impacts, some show negative impacts and others indicate U-shape behaviour. Hence, research is required to fill the lacuna.
Details