Search results

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the growth in energy use and the growth of gross national product (GDP) 1950‐2004. How closely are the two related? Does this relationship vary in strength between rich and poor countries, between market economies and centrally planned economies, and between oil exporting and oil importing nations? Does its strength depend on the price of oil?

The paper uses linear regression of the growth rate in energy use on the growth rate in GDP for 171 countries, GDP per capita, and the price of oil, run for all 171 countries and for subsets of rich, medium rich and poor countries, market economies versus centrally planned economies, and oil exporting versus oil importing countries.

There is a significant positive relationship between growth in energy use and growth in GDP for all countries taken together and for all subsets of countries, although not necessarily proportional. There is some indication that growth in energy use declines with GDP per capita, for any given growth in GDP. There is a significantly negative relationship between the price of oil and the growth in energy use for all countries taken together and for all subsets of countries, except for planned economies and for oil exporting countries.

Given that most of the world's primary energy comes from fossil fuels, it is going to be very difficult to reconcile reductions in carbon dioxide emissions with continued economic growth, especially in poor and medium rich countries.

There are few if any studies which have considered the relationship between energy use and GDP growth for such a large sample of countries, stretching as far back as to 1950 for the countries for which data are available for such a long period.

Considering the continuous rise in the public debt stock of developing countries (particularly Ghana) with the unstable economic growth rate for the past decades and the recent borrowing because of the impact of COVID 19, this paper aims to examine the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth over time.

The paper uses a dynamic multivariate autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL)-based Granger-causality model to test the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth [gross domestic product (GDP)]. Annual time-series data that spanned 1978–2018 were sourced from the World Bank Development Indicator database and the IMF fiscal Affairs Department Database and WEO.

The results reveal that public debt has no causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but there is unidirectional Granger causality running from public debt to GDP in the long run. Again, investment spending has a negative bi-directional causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but they have a positive bi-directional causal relationship in the long run. Conversely, no short-run causal relationship exists between government consumption expenditure and GDP but long-run Granger causality runs from government consumption expenditure to GDP. Finally, public debt has a positive impact on the inflation rate in the short run.

The findings imply that government(s) must ensure high fiscal discipline to serve as a precursor for the effective and efficient use of recent borrowing, that is, the loans should be used for highly prioritized projects (preferably investment spending) that are well evaluated and self-sustained to add positively to the GDP.

This paper provides contemporary findings to augment extant literature on public debt and economic growth by using variables and empirical models, which prior studies could not sufficiently cover in a developing country perspective and affirms that public debt contributes to GDP only in the long run.

Financial liberalization is assumed to be the integration of a country's local financial system with international financial markets and institutions. This integration usually requires that governments liberalize the domestic financial sector and the capital account. Financial sectors were liberalized in most of the developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America within the early 1990s. Among these countries, emerging economies are those who promise huge potential for growth but also pose significant political, monetary, and social risks. Brazil and India are often compared among the major emerging economies. Despite these general similarities between them, there are notable differences in various aspects of opening the balance of payments capital account in both countries. In this chapter, we have tried to analyze the long-run as well as short-run relationship between quarterly growth rate of GDP with the stock market, real market, and money market macroeconomic variables in India and Brazil during the period from the first quarter of 1996–1997 to the second quarter of 2018–2019. To estimate the cointegration relationship between growth rate of GDP and its determinants, we employ the bounds testing procedure (modified-ARDL) developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326). According to our results, stock market plays a positive role in long-term growth in India. Although during the beginning period of the neoliberal reforms, India faced strong domestic political opposition, our study shows that liberalizing the financial market has been fruitful for long-term growth. Our results in case of Brazil show that inflation has a negative and significant impact on long-run growth rate of GDP. The results further show that the share of gross fixed capital formation in GDP in Brazil has a positive and significant long-run relation with the growth rate of GDP. The empirical results further indicate that just like India, liberalization of the financial market and allowing foreign capital inflows have been beneficial for the economy of Brazil in the long run.

“It should also be noted that the objective of convergence and equal distribution, including across under-performing areas, can hinder efforts to generate growth. Contrariwise, the objective of competitiveness can exacerbate regional and social inequalities, by targeting efforts on zones of excellence where projects achieve greater returns (dynamic major cities, higher levels of general education, the most advanced projects, infrastructures with the heaviest traffic, and so on). If cohesion policy and the Lisbon Strategy come into conflict, it must be borne in mind that the former, for the moment, is founded on a rather more solid legal foundation than the latter” European Commission (2005, p. 9)Adaptation of Cohesion Policy to the Enlarged Europe and the Lisbon and Gothenburg Objectives.

Purpose: Manufacturing has always been considered a backbone for economic growth. It has been considered an imperative sector in the growth of an economy. This study aims to trace the long-term relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and manufacturing sector in the context of Indian economy.

Need for the study: According to research, the significance of the manufacturing sector is waning over time. This chapter studies the long-term relationship between the GDP, an indicator of growth, and the manufacturing sector. Over the last few decades, the contribution of manufacturing has been stagnant in the GDP of India.

Methodology: The decadal growth of various sectors in the GDP of India is studied using time series analysis. This study used the data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) from 1950–1951 to 2013–2014. The long-term relationship between the sector of manufacturing and the GDP is examined through the augmented Dicky–Fuller (ADF) test and auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) models.

Findings: The findings suggest that in the Indian scenario, there is no relationship for an extended period between the GDP and the manufacturing sector, which calls for further policy implications.

Practical implications: India, while having the world’s fastest-growing economy, must continue to take steps to attain high growth rates and long-term sustainability by reducing obstacles to the expansion of the service sector in addition to manufacturing. Manufacturing-led services are to be boosted through policy interventions.

This chapter introduces demographic variables in empirical regression to help find whether demographic changes have an impact on economic growth. There is evidence from estimated values in this chapter to suggest that there is no impact that demographic changes in Hong Kong is affecting the economic growth. The population growth has purely a transition impact where the fertility rate was low in early 2000 up to 2015 as the size of the dependency ratio increases. Besides testing demographic variables the government emphasises better education for all people of ages for prosperous growth but in fact has a negative response on educational investment on the growth of the economy. A well-educated country individual does not suggest a higher productivity in economy growth. An important implication is that there has been no single variable as yet that has seriously impacted the economy growth, but there will be changes in the coming years and has to be attended in result to avoid a diminishing economy.

This paper investigates the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in Nigeria after controlling for the quality of the legal system, size of central bank asset, banking sector cost efficiency and bank insolvency risk.

The authors employ the generalised method of moments (GMM) regression methodology to estimate the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on two measures of economic growth in Nigeria.

The abnormal increase in credit supply has a significant effect on economic growth. Abnormal increase in credit supply increases real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The abnormal increase in credit supply decreases real GDP per capita during the global financial crisis. The abnormal increase in domestic credit to the private sector has a significant positive effect on GDP per capita when there is strong legal system quality in Nigeria. In contrast, the abnormal increase in domestic credit to the private sector has a significant negative effect on real GDP growth when there is strong legal system quality in Nigeria.

The abnormal increase in credit supply is ineffective in increasing GDP per capita during crisis years. Policymakers should be cautious in pressuring financial institutions to release an abnormally large amount of credit into the economy particularly during financial crises. Rather, policymakers should encourage financial institutions to supply credit in a sustained manner – not in an abnormal manner –and in a way that supports growth.

The present study contributes to the literature by analysing the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in a developing country context.