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Existing empirical evidence suggests that episodes of financial stress (crises) can act as driver of growth of inequality. Consequently, in this study, the authors explore the time-varying predictive power of an index of financial stress for growth in income (and consumption) inequality in the UK. The authors focus on the UK since income (and consumption) inequality data are available at a high frequency, i.e. on a quarterly basis for over 40 years (June, 1975 to March, 2016).

The authors use Wang and Rossi's approach to analyze the time-varying impact of financial stress on inequality. Hence, the method provides a more appropriate inference of the effect rather than a constant parameter Granger causality method. Besides, understandably, the time-varying approach helps to depict the time-variation in the strength of predictability of financial stress on inequality.

This study’s findings point that financial distress correspond to subsequent increases in inequality, with the index of financial stress containing important information in predicting growth in income inequality for both in and out-of-sample periods. Interestingly, the strength of the in-sample predictive power is high post the period of the global financial crisis, as was observed in the early part of the sample. The authors believe these findings highlight an important role of financial stress for inequality – an area of investigation that has in general remained untouched.

Accurate prediction of inequality at a higher frequency should be more relevant to policymakers in designing appropriate policies to circumvent the wide-ranging negative impacts of inequality, compared to when predictions are only available at the lower annual frequency.

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a generalization of the time-varying correlation elliptical copula models and to analyse its impact on the tail risk of a portfolio of foreign currencies during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The authors consider a multivariate time series model where marginal dynamics are driven by an autoregressive moving average (ARMA)–Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model, and the dependence structure among the residuals is given by an elliptical copula function. The correlation coefficient follows an autoregressive equation where the autoregressive coefficient is a function of the past values of the correlation. The model is applied to a portfolio of a couple of exchange rates, specifically US dollar–Japanese Yen and US dollar–Euro and compared with two alternative specifications of the correlation coefficient: constant and with autoregressive dynamics.

The use of the new model results in a more conservative evaluation of the tail risk of the portfolio measured by the value-at-risk and the expected shortfall suggesting a more prudential capital allocation policy.

The main contribution of the paper consists in the introduction of a time-varying correlation model where the past values of the correlation coefficient impact on the autoregressive structure.

The study investigates the effectiveness of government policies to mitigate the impact of a pandemic. The study adopts the small open economy of Nigeria for the following reasons. First, Nigeria is the largest economy in SSA. Second, Nigeria was also significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The study employed the time-varying structural autoregressive (TVSVAR) model to control for the potential asymmetry in fiscal variables and to control for the shift in the structural shift, following a macroeconomic shock. As a form of robustness, the study also implements the time-varying Granger causality to formally assess the temporal instability of the variable of interest.

The results show that an oil price shock is an important source of macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. Importantly, the results indicate that the effects of fiscal policy are strongly time varying. Specifically, the results show that fiscal policy helps to stabilize the economy, (i.e. they help to reduce inflation and spur output growth) following macroeconomic shock. Further, the Granger test shows that fiscal policy helped to spur growth in Nigeria. The research and policy implications are discussed.

The study accounts for the time-varying effects of fiscal policy.

Tourism demand forecasting is vital for the airline industry and tourism sector. Combination forecasting has the advantage of fusing several forecasts to reduce the risk of inappropriate model selection for analyzing decisions. This paper investigated the effects of a time-varying weighting strategy on the performance of linear and nonlinear forecast combinations in the context of tourism.

This study used grey prediction models, which did not require that the available data satisfy statistical assumptions, to generate forecasts. A quality-control technique was applied to determine when to change the combination weights to generate combined forecasts by using linear and nonlinear methods.

The empirical results showed that except for when the Choquet fuzzy integral was used, forecast combination with time-varying weights did not significantly outperform that with fixed weights. The Choquet integral with time-varying weights significantly outperformed that with fixed weights for all model combinations, and had a superior forecasting accuracy to those of other combination methods.

The tourism sector can benefit from the use of the Choquet integral with time-varying weights, by using it to formulate suitable strategies for tourist destinations.

Combining forecasts with time-varying weights may improve the accuracy of the predictions. This study investigated incorporating a time-varying weighting strategy into combination forecasting by using CUSUM. The results verified the effectiveness of the time-varying Choquet integral for tourism forecast combination.

A time-varying grey Fourier model (TVGFM(1,1,N)) is proposed for the simulation of variable amplitude seasonal fluctuation time series, as the performance of traditional grey models can't catch the time-varying trend well.

The proposed model couples Fourier series and linear time-varying terms as the grey action, to describe the characteristics of variable amplitude and seasonality. The truncated Fourier order N is preselected from the alternative order set by Nyquist-Shannon sampling theorem and the principle of simplicity, then the optimal Fourier order is determined by hold-out method to improve the robustness of the proposed model. Initial value correction and the multiple transformation are also studied to improve the precision.

The new model has a broader applicability range as a result of the new grey action, attaining higher fitting and forecasting accuracy. The numerical experiment of a generated monthly time series indicates the proposed model can accurately fit the variable amplitude seasonal sequence, in which the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is only 0.01%, and the complex simulations based on Monte-Carlo method testify the validity of the proposed model. The results of monthly electricity consumption in China's primary industry, demonstrate the proposed model catches the time-varying trend and has good performances, where MAPE_F and MAPE_T are below 5%. Moreover, the proposed TVGFM(1,1,N) model is superior to the benchmark models, grey polynomial model (GMP(1,1,N)), grey Fourier model (GFM(1,1,N)), seasonal grey model (SGM(1,1)), seasonal ARIMA model seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR).

The parameter estimates and forecasting of the new proposed TVGFM are studied, and the good fitting and forecasting accuracy of time-varying amplitude seasonal fluctuation series are testified by numerical simulations and a case study.

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.

Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.

It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.

This paper examines and forecasts correlations between cryptocurrencies and major fiat currencies using Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) time-varying copulas. The authors examine to which extent the multivariate GAS method captures the volatility persistence and the nonlinear interaction effects between cryptocurrencies and major fiat currencies.

The authors model tail dependence between conventional currencies and Bitcoin utilizing a Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic model (GJR-GARCH)-GAS copula specification, which allows detecting the leptokurtic feature and clustering effects of currency returns distribution.

The authors' results show evidence of multiple tail dependence regimes, implying the unsuitability of applying static models to entirely describe the extreme dependence between Bitcoin and fiat currencies. Compared to the most common constant copulas, the authors find that the multivariate GAS copulas better forecast the volatility and dependency between cryptocurrencies and foreign exchange markets. Furthermore, based on the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) analyses, the authors show that the multivariate GAS models produce accurate risk measures by adding cryptocurrencies to a portfolio of fiat currencies.

This paper has two main contributions to the existing literature on cryptocurrencies. First, the authors empirically examine the tail dependence structure between common conventional currencies and bitcoin using GJR-GARCH GAS copulas which consider the leptokurtic feature and clustering effects of currency returns distribution. Second, by modeling VaR and ES, the authors test the implication of using time-varying models on the performance of currency portfolios, including cryptocurrencies.

The electromechanical planetary transmission system has the advantages of high transmission power and fast running speed, which is one of the important development directions in the future. However, during the operation of the electromechanical planetary transmission system, friction and other factors will lead to an increase in gear temperature and thermal deformation, which will affect the transmission performance of the system, and it is of great significance to study the influence of the temperature effect on the nonlinear dynamics of the electromechanical planetary system.

The effects of temperature change, motor speed, time-varying meshing stiffness, meshing damping ratio and error amplitude on the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of electromechanical planetary systems are studied by using bifurcation diagrams, time-domain diagrams, phase diagrams, Poincaré cross-sectional diagrams, spectra, etc.

The results show that when the temperature rise is less than 70 °C, the system will exhibit chaotic motion. When the motor speed is greater than 900r/min, the system enters a chaotic state. The changes in time-varying meshing stiffness, meshing damping ratio, and error amplitude will also make the system exhibit abundant bifurcation characteristics.

Based on the principle of thermal deformation, taking into account the temperature effect and nonlinear parameters, including time-varying meshing stiffness and tooth side clearance as well as comprehensive errors, a dynamic model of the electromechanical planetary gear system was established.

For coastal bridges, the ability to recover traffic functions after the earthquake has crucial implications for post-disaster reconstruction, which makes resilience become a significant index to evaluate the seismic behavior. However, the deterioration of the material is particularly prominent in coastal bridge, which causes the degradation of the seismic behavior. As far, the research studies on resilience of coastal bridges considering multiple degradation factors and different disaster prevention capability are scarce. For further evaluating the seismic behavior of coastal bridge in the long-term context, the seismic resilience is conducted in this paper with considering multiple durability damage.

The fuzzy theory and time-varying fragility analysis are combined in this paper to obtain the life-cycle resilience of coastal bridges.

The results show that durability damage has a remarkable impact on the resilience. After 100 years of service, the seismic resilience of bridge with poor disaster-prevention capability has greatest reduction, about 18%. In addition, the improvement of the disaster prevention capability can stabilize the resilience of the bridge at a higher level.

In this paper, the time-varying fragility analysis of case bridge are evaluated with considering chloride ion erosion and concrete carbonization, firstly. Then, combining fuzzy theory and fragility analysis, the triangular fuzzy values of resilience parameters under different service period are obtained. Finally, the life-cycle resilience of bridge in different disaster prevention capability is analyzed.

The purpose of this paper is to calculate the meshing stiffness of nutation face gear considering the roughness, establish the calculation method of time-varying meshing stiffness of rough tooth surface and analyze the influence of roughness, load and other factors on the meshing stiffness of tooth surface.

The Weierstrass–Mandelbrot (W-M) function in the Majumdar–Bhushan model is used to characterize the rough contact line of the tooth surface, the normal height and radius of the micro convex body are calculated and the contact flexibility of the contact point of the tooth surface is obtained. The contact flexibility and the bending shear deformation flexibility obtained previously are substituted into the improved deformation compatibility equation for iterative calculation, and the time-varying meshing stiffness of the nutation face gear considering the roughness is obtained.

Compared with ABAQUS finite element simulation results, it is found that the meshing stiffness curve of rough tooth surface is more gentle than that of smooth tooth surface, the meshing stiffness value is smaller and the meshing stiffness change is smaller at the position where the number of gear teeth coincide changes.

In the process of calculating contact deformation, the fractal theory W-M function is used to characterize the contact line of the rough nutation face gear, and the deformation coordination condition considering roughness is improved. Therefore, the method of time-varying meshing stiffness considering roughness can obtain more accurate results, which provides theory and data for the subsequent dynamics analysis of the nutation face gear transmission.