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Forecast combination using grey prediction with fuzzy integral and time-varying weighting in tourism

Yi-Chung Hu (Department of Business Administration, Chung Yuan Christian University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan)

Grey Systems: Theory and Application

ISSN: 2043-9377

Article publication date: 15 August 2023

Issue publication date: 24 October 2023

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Abstract

Purpose

Tourism demand forecasting is vital for the airline industry and tourism sector. Combination forecasting has the advantage of fusing several forecasts to reduce the risk of inappropriate model selection for analyzing decisions. This paper investigated the effects of a time-varying weighting strategy on the performance of linear and nonlinear forecast combinations in the context of tourism.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used grey prediction models, which did not require that the available data satisfy statistical assumptions, to generate forecasts. A quality-control technique was applied to determine when to change the combination weights to generate combined forecasts by using linear and nonlinear methods.

Findings

The empirical results showed that except for when the Choquet fuzzy integral was used, forecast combination with time-varying weights did not significantly outperform that with fixed weights. The Choquet integral with time-varying weights significantly outperformed that with fixed weights for all model combinations, and had a superior forecasting accuracy to those of other combination methods.

Practical implications

The tourism sector can benefit from the use of the Choquet integral with time-varying weights, by using it to formulate suitable strategies for tourist destinations.

Originality/value

Combining forecasts with time-varying weights may improve the accuracy of the predictions. This study investigated incorporating a time-varying weighting strategy into combination forecasting by using CUSUM. The results verified the effectiveness of the time-varying Choquet integral for tourism forecast combination.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank the anonymous referees for their valuable comments. This research is supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan under grant MOST 110-2410-H-033-013-MY2.

Citation

Hu, Y.-C. (2023), "Forecast combination using grey prediction with fuzzy integral and time-varying weighting in tourism", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 13 No. 4, pp. 808-827. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-04-2023-0037

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited

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