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1 – 10 of 644María María Ibañez Martín, Mara Leticia Rojas and Carlos Dabús
Most empirical papers on threshold effects between debt and growth focus on developed countries or a mix of developing and developed economies, often using public debt. Evidence…
Abstract
Purpose
Most empirical papers on threshold effects between debt and growth focus on developed countries or a mix of developing and developed economies, often using public debt. Evidence for developing economies is inconclusive, as is the analysis of other threshold effects such as those probably caused by the level of relative development or the repayment capacity. The objective of this study was to examine threshold effects for developing economies, including external and total debt, and identify them in the debt-growth relation considering three determinants: debt itself, initial real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and debt to exports ratio.
Design/methodology/approach
We used a panel threshold regression model (PTRM) and a dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM) for a sample of 47 developing countries from 1970 to 2019.
Findings
We found (1) no evidence of threshold effects applying total debt as a threshold variable; (2) one critical value for external debt of 42.32% (using PTRM) and 67.11% (using DPTM), above which this factor is detrimental to growth; (3) two turning points for initial GDP as a threshold variable, where total and external debt positively affects growth at a very low initial GDP, it becomes nonsignificant between critical values, and it negatively influences growth above the second threshold; (4) one critical value for external debt to exports using PTRM and DPTM, below which external debt positively affects growth and negatively above it.
Originality/value
The outcome suggests that only poorer economies can leverage credits. The level of the threshold for the debt to exports ratio is higher than that found in previous literature, implying that the external restriction could be less relevant in recent periods. However, the threshold for the external debt-to-GDP ratio is lower compared to previous evidence.
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Segun Thompson Bolarinwa and Munacinga Simatele
The paper validates the threshold argument in the informality–poverty nexus. Recent literature and policy have argued the existence of a threshold in the relationship.
Abstract
Purpose
The paper validates the threshold argument in the informality–poverty nexus. Recent literature and policy have argued the existence of a threshold in the relationship.
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopts dynamic panel threshold analysis, estimated within the framework of system Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) to control for endogeneity and simultaneity. Data from 40 selected sub-Saharan African countries between 1991 and 2018 are used for the study.
Findings
Empirical results confirm the existence of an average threshold of 31% share of informality in GDP. Also, the paper finds that threshold of informality that addresses mild and severe poverty varies between 24.32 and 36.75%.
Research limitations/implications
The work is limited to African economies. Evidence from other emerging and developed economies is suggested for further research.
Practical implications
Overall, the empirical results indicate a threshold in the informality–poverty nexus. Therefore, an excessive informality level does not benefit the African growth process. Policymakers and governments are advised to operate within the bounds of the threshold of informality that reduces poverty and improve the African economic growth process.
Originality/value
The paper is the first study to provide empirical findings on the nonlinear and threshold argument in the informality–poverty nexus, as far as the authors know.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the vehicle-based sensor effect and pavement temperature on road condition assessment, as well as to compute a threshold value for the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the vehicle-based sensor effect and pavement temperature on road condition assessment, as well as to compute a threshold value for the classification of pavement conditions.
Design/methodology/approach
Four sensors were placed on the vehicle’s control arms and one inside the vehicle to collect vibration acceleration data for analysis. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) tests were performed to diagnose the effect of the vehicle-based sensors’ placement in the field. To classify road conditions and identify pavement distress (point of interest), the probability distribution was applied based on the magnitude values of vibration data.
Findings
Results from ANOVA indicate that pavement sensing patterns from the sensors placed on the front control arms were statistically significant, and there is no difference between the sensors placed on the same side of the vehicle (e.g., left or right side). A reference threshold (i.e., 1.7 g) was computed from the distribution fitting method to classify road conditions and identify the road distress based on the magnitude values that combine all acceleration along three axes. In addition, the pavement temperature was found to be highly correlated with the sensing patterns, which is noteworthy for future projects.
Originality/value
The paper investigates the effect of pavement sensors’ placement in assessing road conditions, emphasizing the implications for future road condition assessment projects. A threshold value for classifying road conditions was proposed and applied in class assignments (I-17 highway projects).
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Cheikh Tidiane Ndour and Simplice Asongu
This study examines the relevance of information and communication technologies in the effect of gender economic inclusion on environmental sustainability.
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the relevance of information and communication technologies in the effect of gender economic inclusion on environmental sustainability.
Design/methodology/approach
The focus is on a panel of 42 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2005–2020. The empirical evidence is based on generalized method of moments. The environmental sustainability indicator used is CO2 emissions per capita. Three indicators of women’s economic inclusion are considered: female labour force participation, female employment and female unemployment. The chosen ICT indicators are mobile phone penetration, Internet penetration and fixed broadband subscriptions.
Findings
The results show that: (1) fixed broadband subscriptions represent the most relevant ICT moderator of gender economic inclusion for an effect on CO2 emissions; (2) negative net effects are apparent for the most part with fixed broadband subscriptions (3) both positive ICT thresholds (i.e., critical levels for complementary policies) and negative ICT thresholds (i.e., minimum ICT levels for negative net effects) are provided; (4) ICT synergy effects are apparent for female unemployment, but not for female employment. In general, the joint effect of ICTs or their synergies and economic inclusion should be a concern for policymakers in order to better ensure sustainable development. Moreover, the relevant ICT policy thresholds and mobile phone threshold for complementary policy are essential in promoting a green economy.
Originality/value
The study complements the extant literature by assessing linkages between information technology, gender economic inclusion and environmental sustainability.
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Folorunsho M. Ajide and James T. Dada
The study's objective is to examine the relevance of globalization in affecting the size of the shadow economy in selected African nations.
Abstract
Purpose
The study's objective is to examine the relevance of globalization in affecting the size of the shadow economy in selected African nations.
Design/methodology/approach
To do this, the authors employ the KOF globalization index and implement both static and dynamic common correlated mean group estimators on a panel of 24 African nations from 1995–2017. This technique accommodates the issue of cross-sectional dependence, sample bias and endogenous regressors. Panel threshold analysis is also conducted to establish the nonlinearity between globalization and the shadow economy. To examine the causality between the variables, the study employs Dumitrescu and Hurlin's panel causality test.
Findings
The results show that globalization reduces the size of the shadow economy. The results of the nonlinear analysis suggest a U-shaped relationship. Overall globalization has a threshold impact of 48.837%, economic globalization has 45.615% and political globalization has 66.661% while social globalization has a threshold value of 35.744%. The results of the panel causality show that there is a bidirectional causality between the two variables.
Practical implications
The results suggest that the government and other relevant authorities need to introduce capital controls and other policy measures to moderate the degree of social, political and cultural diffusion. Appropriate policies should be formulated to monitor the extent of African economic openness to other continents to maximize the gains from globalization.
Originality/value
Apart from being the first study in the African region that evaluates the relevance of globalization in controlling the shadow economy, it also analyzes the dynamics and threshold analysis between the two variables using advanced panel econometrics which makes the study unique. The study suggests that globalization tools are useful for affecting the size of the shadow economy in Africa. This study provides fresh empirical evidence on the impact of globalization on the shadow economy in the case of Africa.
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Qingmei Tan, Muhammad Haroon Rasheed and Muhammad Shahid Rasheed
Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a…
Abstract
Purpose
Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a profound influence on the dissemination of information among participants in stock markets. Consequently, this present study delves into the ramifications of post-pandemic dynamics on stock market behavior. It also examines the relationship between investors' sentiments, underlying behavioral drivers and their collective impact on global stock markets.
Design/methodology/approach
Drawing upon data spanning from 2012 to 2023 and encompassing major world indices classified by Morgan Stanley Capital International’s (MSCI) market and regional taxonomy, this study employs a threshold regression model. This model effectively distinguishes the thresholds within these influential factors. To evaluate the statistical significance of variances across these thresholds, a Wald coefficient analysis was applied.
Findings
The empirical results highlighted the substantive role that investors' sentiments and behavioral determinants play in shaping the predictability of returns on a global scale. However, their influence on developed economies and the continents of America appears comparatively lower compared with the Asia–Pacific markets. Similarly, the regions characterized by a more pronounced influence of behavioral factors seem to reduce their reliance on these factors in the post-pandemic landscape and vice versa. Interestingly, the post COVID-19 technological advancements also appear to exert a lesser impact on developed nations.
Originality/value
This study pioneers the investigation of these contextual dissimilarities, thereby charting new avenues for subsequent research studies. These insights shed valuable light on the contextualized nexus between technology, societal dynamics, behavioral biases and their collective impact on stock markets. Furthermore, the study's revelations offer a unique vantage point for addressing market inefficiencies by pinpointing the pivotal factors driving such behavioral patterns.
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Ramy Shaheen, Suhail Mahfud and Ali Kassem
This paper aims to study Irreversible conversion processes, which examine the spread of a one way change of state (from state 0 to state 1) through a specified society (the spread…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to study Irreversible conversion processes, which examine the spread of a one way change of state (from state 0 to state 1) through a specified society (the spread of disease through populations, the spread of opinion through social networks, etc.) where the conversion rule is determined at the beginning of the study. These processes can be modeled into graph theoretical models where the vertex set V(G) represents the set of individuals on which the conversion is spreading.
Design/methodology/approach
The irreversible k-threshold conversion process on a graph G=(V,E) is an iterative process which starts by choosing a set S_0?V, and for each step t (t = 1, 2,…,), S_t is obtained from S_(t−1) by adjoining all vertices that have at least k neighbors in S_(t−1). S_0 is called the seed set of the k-threshold conversion process and is called an irreversible k-threshold conversion set (IkCS) of G if S_t = V(G) for some t = 0. The minimum cardinality of all the IkCSs of G is referred to as the irreversible k-threshold conversion number of G and is denoted by C_k (G).
Findings
In this paper the authors determine C_k (G) for generalized Jahangir graph J_(s,m) for 1 < k = m and s, m are arbitraries. The authors also determine C_k (G) for strong grids P_2? P_n when k = 4, 5. Finally, the authors determine C_2 (G) for P_n? P_n when n is arbitrary.
Originality/value
This work is 100% original and has important use in real life problems like Anti-Bioterrorism.
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Zahra Salah Eldin, Mohamed Elsheemy and Raghda Ali Abdelrahman
Many countries around the world are facing great challenges from their ageing population with shrinking workforce, this will put more pressure on their financial system and will…
Abstract
Purpose
Many countries around the world are facing great challenges from their ageing population with shrinking workforce, this will put more pressure on their financial system and will increase the public spending on care costs provided to older people. Egypt is in the phase of establishing a new law for older people care's rights, a law that will organise how older people in need for care would benefit from access to government financial support and how will families support their older relatives financially and how the care costs will be shared between the older people, their families and the government.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper examines the suitability two cost-sharing methods and applying them to assess the effect on the individuals and families' income strain.
Findings
The preferred approach can be used for sharing costs as it applies a gradual funding withdrawal by the government and provide more fairness and flexibility for application in different regions. Besides, the parameters of this approach can be used by policy makers to control the levels of funding.
Originality/value
The paper will be the first to discuss the intergenerational fairness from a financial perspective in Egypt to avoid forcing older people into poverty or resorting to poverty trade-off.
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Three scenario-based experiments were conducted to explore the influence of the base option’s price format (just-at vs just-below) on tourists’ upgrade intention. The findings of…
Abstract
Three scenario-based experiments were conducted to explore the influence of the base option’s price format (just-at vs just-below) on tourists’ upgrade intention. The findings of this research indicated that tourists are more inclined to upgrade the option when the base option’s price is presented in a just-at condition due to the mediating role of tourists’ price perceptions of the upgrade option. This study discovered that the just-at (vs just-below) pricing strategy can lower tourists’ price perceptions of the upgrade choice. This research further explored the moderating of tourists’ mindsets. It was found the threshold-crossing effect will disappear for tourists with fixed mindsets. This study also provides practical implications for travel service providers to set up appropriate pricing strategies to attract tourists to make upgrade decisions.
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Thai-Ha Le, Long Hai Vo and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
This study examines the co-integration relationships between Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) stock indices as a way to assess the feasibility of policy initiatives to…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the co-integration relationships between Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) stock indices as a way to assess the feasibility of policy initiatives to strengthen market integration in ASEAN and identify implications for portfolio investors.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ threshold co-integration tests and a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to study the asymmetric dynamics of ASEAN equity markets. The study’s data cover the 2009–2022 period for seven member states: Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Findings
The authors find evidence supporting co-integration relationships; adjustment toward equilibrium is asymmetric in the short run and symmetric in the long run for these countries. While co-movement in ASEAN equity markets seems encouraging for initiatives seeking to foster financial integration in regional economies, the benefits for international portfolio diversification appear to be neutralized.
Originality/value
The issue of stock market integration is important among policymakers, investors and academics. This study examines the level of stock market integration in ASEAN during the 2009–2022 period. For this purpose, advanced co-integration techniques are applied to different frequencies of data (daily, weekly and monthly) for comparison and completeness. The empirical analysis of this study is conducted using the Enders and Siklos (2001) co-integration and threshold adjustment procedure. This advanced co-integration technique is superior compared to other co-integration techniques by permitting asymmetry in the adjustment toward equilibrium.
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