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1 – 10 of 65Le Wang, Liping Zou and Ji Wu
This paper aims to use artificial neural network (ANN) methods to predict stock price crashes in the Chinese equity market.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to use artificial neural network (ANN) methods to predict stock price crashes in the Chinese equity market.
Design/methodology/approach
Three ANN models are developed and compared with the logistic regression model.
Findings
Results from this study conclude that the ANN approaches outperform the traditional logistic regression model, with fewer hidden layers in the ANN model having superior performance compared to the ANNs with multiple hidden layers. Results from the ANN approach also reveal that foreign institutional ownership, financial leverage, weekly average return and market-to-book ratio are the important variables when predicting stock price crashes, consistent with results from the traditional logistic model.
Originality/value
First, the ANN framework has been used in this study to forecast the stock price crashes and compared to the traditional logistic model in the world’s largest emerging market China. Second, the receiver operating characteristics curves and the area under the ROC curve have been used to evaluate the forecasting performance between the ANNs and the traditional approaches, in addition to some traditional performance evaluation methods.
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Wenjing Wang, Moting Wang and Yizhi Dong
The paper's purpose is to investigate the effects of digital finance on the risk of stock price crashes and the underlying transmission mechanisms, and to provide suggestions to…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper's purpose is to investigate the effects of digital finance on the risk of stock price crashes and the underlying transmission mechanisms, and to provide suggestions to inhibit the stock crash risk (CR).
Design/methodology/approach
This paper selects all companies that were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2011 to 2020. It then uses the two-way fixed effect model and the intermediary effect model to verify such effects.
Findings
The overall outcomes demonstrate such a result that the CR of listed companies in China can be significantly reduced by the development of digital finance, and the overall transparency of business financial information and the equity pledge of controlling shareholders are the two underlying transmission mechanisms that digital finance can cause effects on the CR of stocks.
Research limitations/implications
The main limitations are that there may exist some problems in the method for evaluating the CR of stocks. And there may be a problem of endogeneity caused by the empirical model cannot control all correlation variables.
Practical implications
This paper would provide policy implications, for different roles, to inhibit the stock CR and to make the development of the economy more stabilize.
Social implications
Digital finance can promote economic development while restraining financial risks at the same time. Therefore, although this study is based on the relevant data from China, it can also provide a reference for other economies with different basic conditions from China, to promote the overall development of the world economy.
Originality/value
The current academic research on digital finance or stock price CR has been relatively sufficient, but there are few papers that combined both. By combining digital finance with stock CR, this paper researches the influence of digital finance on the CR of stocks through empirical analysis. So, this paper would provide new research ideas and evidence for potential influence factors of the CR of stocks, fill the gap in this research field and provide certain help for subsequent scholars to conduct relevant research.
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Wang Dong, Weishi Jia, Shuo Li and Yu (Tony) Zhang
The authors examine the role of CEO political ideology in the credit rating process.
Abstract
Purpose
The authors examine the role of CEO political ideology in the credit rating process.
Design/methodology/approach
This study adopts a quantitative method with panel data regressions using a sample of 5,211 observations from S&P 500 firms from 2001 to 2012.
Findings
The authors find that firms run by Republican-leaning CEOs, who tend to have conservative political ideologies, enjoy more favorable credit ratings than firms run by Democratic-leaning CEOs. In addition, the association between CEO political ideology and credit ratings is more pronounced for firms with high operating uncertainty, low capital intensity, high growth potential, weak corporate governance and low financial reporting quality. Finally, the authors find that CEO political ideology affects a firm's cost of debt incremental to credit ratings, consistent with debt investors incorporating CEO political ideology in their pricing decisions.
Research limitations/implications
Leveraging CEO political ideology, the authors document that credit rating agencies incorporate managerial conservatism in their credit rating decisions. This finding suggests that CEO political ideology serves as a meaningful signal for managerial conservatism.
Practical implications
The study suggests that credit rating agencies incorporate CEO political ideology in their credit rating process. Other capital market participants such as auditors and retail investors can also use CEO political ideology as a proxy for managerial conservatism when evaluating firms.
Social implications
The paper carries practical implications for practitioners, firm executives and regulators. The results on the association between CEO political ideology and credit ratings suggest that other financial institutions could also incorporate CEO political ideology in their evaluation in their evaluation of firms. For example, when evaluating audit risk and determining audit pricing, auditors may add CEO political ideology as a risk factor. For firms, especially those that have Democratic-leaning CEOs, the authors suggest that they could reduce the unfavorable effect of CEO political ideology on credit ratings by improving their corporate governance and financial reporting quality, as demonstrated in the cross-sectional analyses. Finally, this study shows that CEO political ideology, as measured by CEOs' political contributions, is closely related to a firm's credit ratings. This finding may inform regulators that greater transparency for CEOs' political contributions is needed as information on contributions could help capital market participants perform risk analyses for firms.
Originality/value
Credit rating agencies release their research methodologies for determining corporate credit ratings and identify managerial conservatism as an important factor that affects their risk assessments. The extant literature, however, has not empirically investigated the relation between credit ratings and managerial conservatism, which, according to behavioral consistency theory, can be proxied by CEO political ideology. This study provides novel empirical evidence that identifies CEO political ideology as an important input factor in the credit rating process.
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Despite the widespread prevalence of share pledging by Indian promoters, this area remains out of the researchers’ purview. This study aims to bridge this research gap by…
Abstract
Purpose
Despite the widespread prevalence of share pledging by Indian promoters, this area remains out of the researchers’ purview. This study aims to bridge this research gap by delineating the impact of promoter share pledging on future stock price crash risk and financial performance in India.
Design/methodology/approach
A sample of 257 companies listed on the Standard and Poor’s Bombay Stock Exchange 500 (S&P BSE 500) Index has been analysed using panel (fixed-effects) data regression methodology over 2011–2020. Further, alternative proxies for crash risk and financial performance are adopted to ensure that the study’s initial findings are robust. Finally, the instrumental variable with the two-stage least squares (IV-2SLS) method has also been employed to alleviate endogeneity concerns.
Findings
The results suggest a significantly positive relationship between promoter share pledging and future stock price crash risk in India. Conversely, this association is significantly negative for future financial performance. Moreover, the results hold, even after including alternative proxies of stock price crash risk and financial performance and addressing endogeneity concerns.
Originality/value
Owing to the sizeable equity shareholdings of the promoters, share pledging has remained a lucrative source of finance in India. Despite the popularity, the findings of this study question the relevance of share pledging by Indian promoters considering its impact on aggravating future stock price crash risk and deteriorating future financial performance.
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Ragia Shelih and Li Wang
This study aims to empirically explore the influence of managerial ability on crash risk and the moderating effect of financial constraints on this interrelationship.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to empirically explore the influence of managerial ability on crash risk and the moderating effect of financial constraints on this interrelationship.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a sample of listed corporations in the Egyptian Stock Exchange during 2018–2021, the authors test the hypotheses by using the measures and methods well established in prior literature. The authors also conduct multiple robustness analyses to ensure the validity of the empirical results.
Findings
The findings suggest that managerial ability can effectively inhibit crash risk. In addition, the authors report that financial constraints significantly dampen this relationship. Thus, financial restrictions play a striking role in hampering the managerial ability to prevent stock crashes. Furthermore, the authors document that the moderating role of severe financing constraints is more prominent during the Covid-19 pandemic period.
Originality/value
The originality of this study stems from the following considerations. First, this study enriches relevant studies on crash risk by providing evidence from one of the emerging markets in the Middle East; thereby, contrasting with those in developed economies. Second, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study investigating the moderating impact of financing constraints on the managerial ability and crash risk nexus. Therefore, this work adds value to the extant knowledge by scrutinizing this important issue and providing novel empirical evidence.
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Mohammed Bouaddi, Omar Farooq and Catalina Hurwitz
The aim of this paper is to document the effect of analyst coverage on the ex ante probability of stock price crash and the ex ante probability stock price jump.
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is to document the effect of analyst coverage on the ex ante probability of stock price crash and the ex ante probability stock price jump.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the data of non-financial firms from France to test the arguments presented in this paper during the period between 1997 and 2019. The paper also uses flexible quadrants copulas to compute the ex ante probabilities of crashes and jumps.
Findings
The results show that the extent of analyst coverage is positively associated with the ex ante probability of crash and negatively associated with the ex ante probability of jump. The results remain qualitatively the same after several sensitivity checks. The results also show that the relationship between the extent of analyst coverage and the probability of cash and the probability of jump holds when ex post probability of stock price crash and stock price jump is used.
Originality/value
Unlike most of the earlier papers on this topic, this paper uses the ex ante probability of crash and jump. This proxy is better suited than the ones used in the prior literature because it is a forward-looking measure.
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Érico Daniel Ricardi Guerreiro, Reginaldo Fidelis and Rafael Henrique Palma Lima
A quantitative theoretical model is proposed to measure how productivity performance can be affected by strategic decisions related to specific competitive priorities.
Abstract
Purpose
A quantitative theoretical model is proposed to measure how productivity performance can be affected by strategic decisions related to specific competitive priorities.
Design/methodology/approach
This study proposes the Primary Transformation Model (PTM) and an equation to measure cause-and-effect relationships between productivity and competitive priorities.
Findings
The interdependence between productivity and competitive priorities was studied using the PTM and the proposed model indicates that strategies that improve external performance also impact internal productivity. It was also observed that the compatibility between competitive priorities depends on the initial manufacturing conditions and the implementation method adopted.
Research limitations/implications
The proposed model is theoretical and, as such, is an abstraction of reality and does not consider all possible aspects. It consists of a novel approach that still requires further empirical testing. The PTM provides insights about the trade-offs between productivity and strategic objectives, as well, contributes to the ongoing research on manufacturing strategy and can be further developed in future studies.
Practical implications
The main practical implication is to allow companies to relate their strategic decisions to their productivity performance.
Social implications
This research also contributes to societal issues by enabling firms to better align strategic objectives and operations, which ultimately allows offering products more suited to the needs of customers, thus making better use of the required resources and favoring economic growth.
Originality/value
The model proposed allows objective assessment of actions aiming at operational efficiency and effectiveness, in addition to providing insights into cause-and-effect relationships between productivity and competitive priorities. The model can also be used in empirical investigations on manufacturing strategy.
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Christiana Osei Bonsu, Chelsea Liu and Alfred Yawson
The role of chief executive officer (CEO) personal characteristics in shaping corporate policies has attracted increasing academic attention in the past two decades. In this…
Abstract
Purpose
The role of chief executive officer (CEO) personal characteristics in shaping corporate policies has attracted increasing academic attention in the past two decades. In this review, the authors synthesize extant research on CEO attributes by reviewing 232 articles published in 29 journals from the accounting, finance and management literature. This review provides an overview of existing findings, highlights current trends and interdisciplinary differences in research approaches and identifies potential avenues for future research.
Design/methodology/approach
To review the literature on CEO attributes, the authors manually collected peer-reviewed articles in accounting, finance and management journals from 2000 to 2021. The authors conducted in-depth analysis of each paper and manually recorded the theories, data sources, country of study, study period, measures of CEO attributes and dependent variables. This procedure helped the authors group the selected articles into themes and sub-themes. The authors compared the findings in various disciplines and provided direction for future research.
Findings
The authors highlight the role of CEO personal attributes in influencing corporate decision-making and firm outcomes. The authors categorize studies of CEO traits into three main research themes: (1) demographic attributes and experience (including age, gender, culture, experience, education); (2) CEO interactions with others (social and political networks) and (3) underlying attributes (including personality, values and ideology). The evidence shows that CEO characteristics significantly affect a wide range of specific corporate policies that serve as mechanisms through which individual CEOs determine firm success and performance.
Practical implications
CEO selection is one of the most crucial decisions made by corporations. The study findings provide valuable insights to corporate executives, boards, investors and practitioners into how CEOs’ personal characteristics can impact future firm decisions and outcomes that can, in turn, inform the high-stake process of CEO recruitment and selection. The study findings have significant practical implications for corporations, such as contributing to executive training programs, to assist executives and directors attain a greater level of self-awareness.
Originality/value
Building on the theoretical foundation of upper echelons theory, the authors offer an integrated theoretical framework to consolidate existing empirical research on the impacts of CEO personal attributes on firm outcomes across accounting and finance (A&F) and management literature. The study findings provide a roadmap for scholars to bridge the interdisciplinary divide between A&F and management research. The authors advocate a more holistic and multifaceted approach to examining CEOs, each of whom embodies a myriad of personal characteristics that comprise their unique identity. The study findings encourage future researchers to expand the investigation of the boundary conditions that magnify or moderate the impacts of CEO idiosyncrasies.
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Suvra Roy, Ben R. Marshall, Hung T. Nguyen and Nuttawat Visaltanachoti
The purpose of this study is to investigate (1) how managers respond to stock price crashes, (2) why they respond and (3) how their responses affect shareholders.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate (1) how managers respond to stock price crashes, (2) why they respond and (3) how their responses affect shareholders.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs a panel regression with various firm-level controls and firm- and year-fixed effects. The sample is comprised of 101,532 firm-year observations with 11,727 unique firms from 1950 to 2019. Using mutual fund flow redemption pressure as an exogenous variable to stock price crashes, the paper provides further evidence of the causality of documented findings.
Findings
Management becomes more focused on improving transparency, raising investment efficiency, reducing agency conflicts and regaining the trust of shareholders by investing in social capital and employee welfare. These actions increase firm value. This study also suggests that management undertakes these actions out of concern for their tenure of employment.
Originality/value
The catalysts of stock price crashes are well documented, but much less is known about what happens following stock price crashes. This study provides more insights into the understanding of corporate crisis management practices following adverse events.
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Mengjiao Chen, Jinjuan Ren and Jingying Zhao
This paper aims to investigate the impact of corporate culture on stock price crash risk and explore the underlying mechanisms.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the impact of corporate culture on stock price crash risk and explore the underlying mechanisms.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses a novel firm-level culture measure of Li et al. (2020), which evaluates corporate culture from the perspectives of integrity, teamwork, innovation, respect and quality. Using a sample of 4,017 US firms from 2001 to 2018, this paper uses panel data regressions to explore the impact of corporate culture on stock price crash risk.
Findings
This paper finds that among five cultural dimensions, integrity reduces crash risk and quality increases crash risk. The mitigating effect of integrity culture on crash risk is concentrated among firms with a strong incentive or ability to hoard bad news. The exacerbating effect of quality culture on crash risk is concentrated among firms with low managerial flexibility.
Social implications
This paper helps investors and regulators to understand the determinants of stock price crash risk, which facilitates investors’ wealth management and stabilizes social welfare.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that uses time-varying firm-level measure of corporate culture to investigate its impact on stock price crash risk, contributing to the literature on the determinants of crash risk. Besides, this is the first study that explores the possible mechanism of managerial flexibility in influencing stock price crash risk.
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