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Article
Publication date: 27 August 2024

Sara Munir, Mazhar Farid Chishti and Rizwana Bashir

The cognitive biases exhibited by investors could hinder their capacity for logical reasoning and impact their perception and reaction to information when making financial…

Abstract

Purpose

The cognitive biases exhibited by investors could hinder their capacity for logical reasoning and impact their perception and reaction to information when making financial choices. So, this study was done to identify the behavioral biases that hinder investors' sound decision-making at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

Design/methodology/approach

A cross-sectional study was undertaken employing a causal research design approach. Questionnaires were administered to individual investors of the PSX as the data collection methodology. The data were subsequently analyzed through the utilization of the Smart PLS Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) technique.

Findings

The results suggest that information factors and cognitive biases, namely home bias, geographical bias, investor sentiment, salience, and over/under reaction have a positive association with the investors' choices at PSX.

Research limitations/implications

The study’s emphasis is on the impact of behavioral biases on individual investors only, even though such biases also influence the investment decisions of institutional investors.

Practical implications

The study holds implications for scholars engaged in the field of behavioral finance as well as professionals involved in the stock market, particularly those interacting with individual investors and personal finance. Additionally, the current study will take into account investors, financial advisors, practitioners, policymakers, investment experts, stakeholders or target groups, etc. to support various groups in their professional activity and to help them overcome such biases that influence their sound decision-making power.

Originality/value

The innovative aspect of this research is its ability to advance the understanding of the conceptual underpinnings and social structure of behavioral biases by critically analyzing the body of prior research and adding value to the existing body of literature on behavioral finance in Pakistan by investigating the combined impact of never-studied variables, i.e. geographical bias and information variables, understudied behavioral variables, i.e. home bias and salience and studied variables, i.e. investor sentiment and over/under reaction on individual investor investment decisions at PSX.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2054-6238

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 September 2024

Eugene Msizi Buthelezi

The purpose of this study is to investigate the interplay between fiscal dominance and monetary policy in South Africa from 1960 to 2023.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the interplay between fiscal dominance and monetary policy in South Africa from 1960 to 2023.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) medel to analyze the relationship between fiscal dominance and monetary policy. Short-term and long-term shocks of government borrowing and deficits are examined to understand their impact on inflation dynamics.

Findings

Fiscal dominance has a significant effect both in the short and long run. There is evidence that government debt and deficits increase inflation, overriding the effects of monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability. On the other hand, the study reveals that money supply shocks have a greater effect in reducing fiscal dominance compared to interest rate shocks. The variance movement on inflation is significantly explained by government debt and deficits. This emphasizes the persistence of inflationary pressures associated with fiscal dominance, highlighting the importance of effective policy interventions to mitigate inflationary risks.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature by providing insights into the dynamics of fiscal dominance in South Africa. Moreover, this study extends the theoretical framework of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) and the government budget constraint. This study contributes valuable insights into the dynamics of fiscal dominance in South Africa and offers guidance for policymakers in formulating strategies to safeguard economic stability.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2024

Karlo Marques Junior

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each…

36

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.

Findings

This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.

Originality/value

This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 September 2024

Raphael José Pereira Freitas

This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, private and government consumption and nominal interest rates.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Bayesian estimation from 2000Q1 to 2022Q4, capturing rational and behavioral behaviors with adjustments for Brazilian economic idiosyncrasies. Impulse response functions (IRF) assess the dynamic effects of policy shocks, providing a comparative analysis of the two frameworks.

Findings

Behavioral agents show greater initial sensitivity to policy shocks, causing more pronounced fluctuations in GDP, inflation and private consumption compared to rational agents. Over time, the behavioral approach leads to a more robust recovery, while the rational approach results in a quicker return to equilibrium but less pronounced long-term recovery. The study also finds fiscal policy can partially offset the negative impacts of monetary tightening, with a more delayed effect in the behavioral model.

Originality/value

This paper provides insights into the interplay between monetary and fiscal policies under different agent expectations, emphasizing the importance of incorporating behavioral elements into macroeconomic models to better capture policy dynamics in emerging markets.

Details

EconomiA, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1517-7580

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 December 2023

Hai Le and Phuong Nguyen

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.

Design/methodology/approach

This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.

Findings

The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.

Originality/value

This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 27 August 2024

Anirban Basu

This chapter reviews the econometric approaches typically used to deal with the spike of zeros when modelling non-negative outcomes such as expenditures, income, or consumption…

Abstract

This chapter reviews the econometric approaches typically used to deal with the spike of zeros when modelling non-negative outcomes such as expenditures, income, or consumption. Relying on the assumptions of selection on observables for evaluating a policy or treatment, this chapter discusses other issues that arise with spikes of zeros in the data, including the analyst's choice between full information versus quasi-likelihood methods, considering whether observed zeros are true or masking more complex behavioural decisions, and dealing with zeros that arise due to self-selection. This chapter ends with discussions of empirical strategies to deal with these behavioural assumptions and a brief review of the literature where such strategies were employed.

Details

Recent Developments in Health Econometrics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-259-9

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 September 2024

Mustafa Kocoglu, Xuan-Hoa Nghiem and Ehsan Nikbakht

In this study, we aim to investigate the connectedness spillovers among major cryptocurrency markets. Moreover, we also explore to identify factors driving this connectedness…

Abstract

Purpose

In this study, we aim to investigate the connectedness spillovers among major cryptocurrency markets. Moreover, we also explore to identify factors driving this connectedness, particularly focusing on the sentimentality of total, short-term, and long-term return connectedness spillovers among cryptocurrencies under Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the extent to which cryptocurrency markets serve as a safe haven, hedge, and diversifier from news-based uncertainties.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs the connectedness approach following the combination of Ando et al. (2022) QVAR and Baruník and Krehlík's (2018) frequency connectedness methodologies into the framework proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014). The data covered from November 10, 2017, to April 21, 2023, and the factors driving cryptocurrency connectedness spillovers are identified and examined. The sentimentality of total, short-term, and long-term return connectedness spillovers among cryptocurrencies, concerning Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty, are analyzed. We apply the Wavelet quantile correlation (WQC) method developed by Kumar and Padakandla (2022) to explore the effects of Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty on Cryptocurrency market connectedness risk spillovers. Besides, we check and present the robustness of WQC findings with the multivariate stochastic volatility method.

Findings

Our findings indicate that Ethereum and Bitcoin are net shock transmitters at the center of the connectedness return network. Ethereum and Bitcoin hold the highest market capitalization and value in the cryptocurrency market, respectively. This suggests that return shocks originating from these two cryptocurrencies have the most significant impact on other cryptocurrencies. Tether and Monero are the net receivers of return shocks, while Cardano and XRP exhibit weak shock-transmitting characteristics through returns. In terms of return spillovers, Ethereum is the most effective, followed by Bitcoin and Stellar. Further analysis reveals that Twitter economic policy uncertainty and US economic policy uncertainty are effective drivers of short-term and total directional spillovers. These uncertainty indices exhibit positive coefficient signs in short-term and total directional spillovers, which turn predominantly negative in different magnitudes and frequency ranges in the long term. In addition, we also document that as the Total Connectedness Index (TCI) value increases, market risk also rises. Also, our empirical findings provide significant evidence of Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty that affect short-term market risks. Hence, we state that risk-connectedness spillovers in cryptocurrency markets enclose permanent or temporary shock variations. Besides, findings of the low value of long-term spillovers suggest that risk shocks in cryptocurrency markets are not permanent, indicating long-term changes require careful monitoring and control over market dynamics.

Practical implications

In this study, we find evidence that Twitter's news-based uncertainty and US economic policy uncertainty have a significant effect on short-term market risk spillovers. Furthermore, we observe that high cryptocurrency market risk spillovers coincide with periods of events such as the US-China trade tensions in January 2018, the Brexit process in February 2019, and the COVID-19 outbreak in November 2019. Next, we observe a decline in cryptocurrency market risk spillovers after March 2020. The reason for this mitigation of market risk spillover may be that the Fed's quantitative easing signals have initiated a relaxation process in the markets. Because the Fed's signal to fight inflation in March 2022 also coincides with the period when risk spillover increased in crypto markets. Based on this, we present evidence that the FED's communication mechanism with the markets can potentially affect both short- and long-term expectations. In this context, we can say that our hypothesis that uncertainty about the news causes short-term risks to increase has been confirmed. Our findings may have investment policy implications for portfolio managers and investors generally in terms of reducing financial risks.

Originality/value

Our paper contributes to the literature by examining the interconnectedness among major cryptocurrencies and the drivers behind them, particularly focusing on the role of news-based economic uncertainties. More broadly, we calculate the utilization of advanced methodologies and the incorporation of real-time economic uncertainty data to enhance the originality and value of the research, which provides insights into the dynamics of cryptocurrency markets.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 August 2024

Rajesh Kumar Bhaskaran, Sujit K Sukumaran and Kareem Abdul Waheed

This study aims to examine whether social initiatives adopted by firms lead to improved financial performance. The authors analyse the impact of different elements of social…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine whether social initiatives adopted by firms lead to improved financial performance. The authors analyse the impact of different elements of social initiatives on wealth creation for firms in terms of operating and market performance.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is based on the social initiative scores of over 4,500 firms collected from Thomson Reuters' ESG database. The study uses two-stage least squares (2SLS) to analyse the relationship between social initiatives and firm performance.

Findings

Profitable, mature, capital intensive and firms with high sales growth rate tend to invest more in social initiatives. Firms with high agency costs invest in social initiatives for workforce efficiency, maintaining human rights and product responsibility. The study documents evidence that social investments are value creating mechanism for firms which leads to improved financial performance in terms of operating and stock market performance. Firms with high dividend intensity invest in social initiatives for workforce welfare and human rights initiatives. Investment in employee well-being and community initiatives results in intangible benefits such as improved stock market valuation.

Practical implications

The research model has not considered the impact of intervening variables to understand the relationship between corporate social performance and corporate financial performance.

Social implications

Firms ought to recognize that social investment is beneficial in terms of value creation of firms as stock market perceive such investments favourably. Firms must focus more on community development initiatives and workforce initiatives for the value creation of firms compared to investments directed towards human rights initiatives and product responsibility initiatives.

Originality/value

This study focusses exclusively on the social dimension of the CSR activities. The authors examine the impact of social welfare scores on firm performance by analysing the valuation effects on scores representing workforce, human rights, community and product responsibility. Moreover, the paper also examines the impact of a new dimension of product responsibility on firm performance. They also focus on both aspects of financial performance in terms of operating performance (proxied by ROE) and the joint impact of both operating and market performance (proxied by Tobin’s Q). This paper contributes to the research on the linkage of social performance to financial performance by observing that firms with high agency cost characteristics tend to invest in social initiatives for work force efficiency, maintaining human rights and product responsibility.

Details

Journal of Global Responsibility, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2041-2568

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 August 2023

Kuldeep Singh and Megha Jaiwani

The global energy sector draws significant stakeholder attention due to never-ending controversies surrounding its environmental impacts. Investors’ response to such controversies…

Abstract

Purpose

The global energy sector draws significant stakeholder attention due to never-ending controversies surrounding its environmental impacts. Investors’ response to such controversies causes direct financial implications for these firms. Furthermore, environmental, social and governance (ESG) sensitivity, which is likely to safeguard the energy sector firms from such controversies, is itself conditional to the development stage of a country and its regulatory environment. Therefore, this study aims to investigate if the influence of ESG on the share price volatility (SPV) of energy sector firms is subject to the development stage of the countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The study investigates nine years of panel data of 93 global energy sector firms from developing and developed nations. Using dynamic two-way fixed effects estimation and computing robust standard errors to obtain the econometric results.

Findings

The main finding reveals that the impact of ESG on SPV is, indeed, subject to the development stage of the nations. Similar results are observed for the effects of the social dimension of ESG on SPV. While ESG impacts the SPV negatively for firms in developing economies, the impact is the opposite for firms in developed nations. In other words, strong ESG propositions induce share price stability for developing countries while destabilizing the firms in developed nations.

Practical implications

The policymakers should further streamline the regulations and policies related to ESG adoption and adherence. In practice, the energy sectors should streamline their operations. Firm managers, especially in the energy sector, should devise strategies with ESG as an essential component to safeguard their firms against environmental and market volatility and adversatives. The firms in developing nations should further strengthen their social dimension of ESG to foster social equity and harmony.

Originality/value

The study contributes through its niche investigations on the energy sector, which is very important for the world economy. The study is relevant in the current scenario when the world faces a severe energy crisis due to global supply chain issues.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 18 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 August 2024

Yoksa Salmamza Mshelia, Simon Mang’erere Onywere and Sammy Letema

This paper aims to assess the current and future dynamics of land cover transitions and analyze the vegetation conditions in Abuja city since its establishment as the capital of…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to assess the current and future dynamics of land cover transitions and analyze the vegetation conditions in Abuja city since its establishment as the capital of Nigeria in 1991.

Design/methodology/approach

A random forest classifier embedded in the Google Earth Engine platform was used to classify Landsat imagery for the years 1990, 2001, 2014 and 2020. A post-classification comparison was used to detect the dynamics of land cover transitions. A hybrid simulation model that comprised cellular automata and Markovian was used to model the probable scenario of land cover changes for 2050. The trend of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index was examined using Mann–Kendall and Theil Sen’s from 2014 to 2022. Nighttime band data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were obtained to analyze the trend of urbanization from 2014 to 2022.

Findings

The findings show that built-up areas increased by 40%, while vegetation, bare land and agricultural land decreased by 27%, 7% and 8%, respectively. Vegetation had the highest declining rate at 3.15% per annum. Built-up areas are expected to increase by 17.1% between 2020 and 2050 in contrast with other land cover. The proportion of areas with moderate vegetation improvement is estimated to be 15.10%, while the proportion of areas with no significant change was 38.10%. The overall proportion of degraded areas stands at 46.8% due to urbanization.

Originality/value

The findings provide a comprehensive insight into the dynamics of land cover transitions and vegetation variability induced by rapid urbanization in Abuja city, Nigeria. In addition, the findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners to develop a sustainable land use policy that promotes inclusivity, safety and resilience.

Details

Urbanization, Sustainability and Society, vol. 1 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2976-8993

Keywords

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