Twitter-based economic uncertainties and time-frequency connectedness among cryptocurrencies

Abstract

Purpose

In this study, we aim to investigate the connectedness spillovers among major cryptocurrency markets. Moreover, we also explore to identify factors driving this connectedness, particularly focusing on the sentimentality of total, short-term, and long-term return connectedness spillovers among cryptocurrencies under Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the extent to which cryptocurrency markets serve as a safe haven, hedge, and diversifier from news-based uncertainties.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs the connectedness approach following the combination of Ando et al. (2022) QVAR and Baruník and Krehlík's (2018) frequency connectedness methodologies into the framework proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014). The data covered from November 10, 2017, to April 21, 2023, and the factors driving cryptocurrency connectedness spillovers are identified and examined. The sentimentality of total, short-term, and long-term return connectedness spillovers among cryptocurrencies, concerning Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty, are analyzed. We apply the Wavelet quantile correlation (WQC) method developed by Kumar and Padakandla (2022) to explore the effects of Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty on Cryptocurrency market connectedness risk spillovers. Besides, we check and present the robustness of WQC findings with the multivariate stochastic volatility method.

Findings

Our findings indicate that Ethereum and Bitcoin are net shock transmitters at the center of the connectedness return network. Ethereum and Bitcoin hold the highest market capitalization and value in the cryptocurrency market, respectively. This suggests that return shocks originating from these two cryptocurrencies have the most significant impact on other cryptocurrencies. Tether and Monero are the net receivers of return shocks, while Cardano and XRP exhibit weak shock-transmitting characteristics through returns. In terms of return spillovers, Ethereum is the most effective, followed by Bitcoin and Stellar. Further analysis reveals that Twitter economic policy uncertainty and US economic policy uncertainty are effective drivers of short-term and total directional spillovers. These uncertainty indices exhibit positive coefficient signs in short-term and total directional spillovers, which turn predominantly negative in different magnitudes and frequency ranges in the long term. In addition, we also document that as the Total Connectedness Index (TCI) value increases, market risk also rises. Also, our empirical findings provide significant evidence of Twitter-based economic uncertainties and US economic policy uncertainty that affect short-term market risks. Hence, we state that risk-connectedness spillovers in cryptocurrency markets enclose permanent or temporary shock variations. Besides, findings of the low value of long-term spillovers suggest that risk shocks in cryptocurrency markets are not permanent, indicating long-term changes require careful monitoring and control over market dynamics.

Practical implications

In this study, we find evidence that Twitter's news-based uncertainty and US economic policy uncertainty have a significant effect on short-term market risk spillovers. Furthermore, we observe that high cryptocurrency market risk spillovers coincide with periods of events such as the US-China trade tensions in January 2018, the Brexit process in February 2019, and the COVID-19 outbreak in November 2019. Next, we observe a decline in cryptocurrency market risk spillovers after March 2020. The reason for this mitigation of market risk spillover may be that the Fed's quantitative easing signals have initiated a relaxation process in the markets. Because the Fed's signal to fight inflation in March 2022 also coincides with the period when risk spillover increased in crypto markets. Based on this, we present evidence that the FED's communication mechanism with the markets can potentially affect both short- and long-term expectations. In this context, we can say that our hypothesis that uncertainty about the news causes short-term risks to increase has been confirmed. Our findings may have investment policy implications for portfolio managers and investors generally in terms of reducing financial risks.

Originality/value

Our paper contributes to the literature by examining the interconnectedness among major cryptocurrencies and the drivers behind them, particularly focusing on the role of news-based economic uncertainties. More broadly, we calculate the utilization of advanced methodologies and the incorporation of real-time economic uncertainty data to enhance the originality and value of the research, which provides insights into the dynamics of cryptocurrency markets.

Citation

Kocoglu, M., Nghiem, X.-H. and Nikbakht, E. (2024), "Twitter-based economic uncertainties and time-frequency connectedness among cryptocurrencies", Managerial Finance, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-03-2024-0229