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Radical changes in consumer habits induced by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic suggest that the usual demand forecasting techniques based on historical series are questionable. This is particularly true for hospitality demand, which has been dramatically affected by the pandemic. Accordingly, we investigate the suitability of tourists’ activity on Twitter as a predictor of hospitality demand in the Way of Saint James – an important pilgrimage tourism destination.

This study compares the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model with that of the SARIMA with an exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model to forecast hotel tourism demand. For this, 110,456 tweets posted on Twitter between January 2018 and September 2022 are used as exogenous variables.

The results confirm that the predictions of traditional time-series models for tourist demand can be significantly improved by including tourist activity on Twitter. Twitter data could be an effective tool for improving the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand in real-time, which has relevant implications for tourism management. This study also provides a better understanding of tourists’ digital footprints in pilgrimage tourism.

This study contributes to the scarce literature on the digitalisation of pilgrimage tourism and forecasting hotel demand using a new methodological framework based on Twitter user-generated content. This can enable hospitality industry practitioners to convert social media data into relevant information for hospitality management.

2019冠狀病毒病引致消費者習慣有根本的改變; 這些改變顯示，根據歷史序列而運作的慣常需求預測技巧未必是正確的。這不確性尤以受到大流行極大影響的酒店服務需求為甚。因此，我們擬探討、若把在推特網站上的旅遊活動視為聖雅各之路 (一個重要的朝聖旅遊聖地) 酒店服務需求的預測器，這會否是合適的呢?

本研究比較 SARIMA 時間序列模型與附有外生變數 (SARIMAX)模型兩者在預測旅遊及酒店服務需求方面的表現。為此，研究人員收集在推特網站上發佈的資訊，作為外生變數進行研究。這個樣本涵蓋於2018年1月至2022年9月期間110,456個發佈資訊。

研究結果確認了傳統的時間序列模型，若涵蓋推特網站上的旅遊活動，則其對旅遊需求方面的預測會得到顯著的改善。推特網站的數據，就改善預測實時旅遊需求的準確度，或許可成為有效的工具; 而這發現對旅遊管理會有一定的意義。本研究亦讓我們進一步瞭解朝聖旅遊方面旅客的數碼足跡。

現存文獻甚少探討朝聖旅遊的數字化，而本研究不但在這方面充實了有關的文獻，還使用了一個根據推特網站上使用者原創內容嶄新的方法框架，進行分析和探討。這會幫助酒店從業人員把社交媒體數據轉變為可供酒店管理之用的合宜資訊。

This study examines experiences and enjoyment of national parks in the context of Tanzania.

A cross-sectional design with quantitative and qualitative methods is applied. The study area is Nyerere National Park in Tanzania. Data collected from fully completed structured questionnaires by 360 domestic tourists are subjected to descriptive statistics and Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling analysis. Content analysis is used to analyze qualitative data.

The findings have revealed that there is a significant relationship between direct experiences and enjoyment of southern national parks among domestic tourists.

The suggestion is for future studies to explore a longitudinal approach to determine the patterns of domestic tourists in reference to experiences and enjoyment of national parks so as to improve domestic tourism.

The practical implication is for the government, private sector and tourism stakeholders to improve infrastructure and conduct regular surveys and tour guide training.

This study examines experiences and enjoyment of national parks in the context of Tanzania and, specifically analyzes the relationship between direct experiences and enjoyment of southern national parks among domestic tourists in Tanzania guided by types of tourists’ theory.

South Africa is the leading market for luxury goods in Africa – a fact evident from the statistics on luxury retail and the expanding footprint of international and local luxury brands. In a market that is dominated by prominent international brands, indigenous South African brands are seldom the subject of empirical research. This study addresses this gap by analysing the consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) of South African luxury fashion brands and its outcomes on the purchase/repurchase intention of consumers of South African luxury fashion brands.

The study adopted quantitative research methods and utilized survey questionnaires to acquire data from 130 respondents. Structural equation modelling was used in testing the proposed alternative hypotheses.

The study affirmed the relevance of Aaker's (1991) CBBE model for luxury goods in the emerging economy of South Africa. It established perceived quality and behavioural loyalty as significant predictors of brand equity while affirming the prevalence of hedonism and behavioural loyalty in South Africa's luxury fashion market.

The small sample size and the limited geographic scope of the study had a significant adverse impact on the broad application of the study's outcome. Furthermore, Aaker's (1991) CBBE model, while adequate, may have diminished the probability of a nuanced outcome.

This study advances the frontiers of interdisciplinary research by applying the marketing framework of CBBE to fashion studies in South Africa. The validated measurement scale, which emphasises the relevance of hedonism and behavioural loyalty in South Africa, may be useful for a similar study on luxury fashion brands in other emerging economies.

Although previous studies have examined the influence of celebrity involvement in behavioural intentions, the role of celebrity dimensions such as attraction, self-expression and centrality in influencing tourists’ intention in the context of developing countries such as Tanzania remains largely unaddressed. This study, therefore, examined the relationship between celebrity involvement and domestic tourists' intentions to visit tourist attractions, attitude being the mediating variable.

A questionnaire was self-administered on a convenient sample of 279 domestic tourists in the Tanzania’s four largest regions, namely, Dar es Salaam, Mbeya, Arusha and Mwanza. Employing a quantitative research approach, structural equation modelling was performed to test the cause-and-effect relationships between celebrity involvement and tourists’ intentions before testing the mediating role of attitude in such a relationship. Confirmatory factor analysis was also performed to test the measurement models.

Attraction emerged to be the main determinant of the celebrity dimension that significantly influenced domestic tourists’ travel intentions, whereas attitude partially mediates such a relationship. Moreover, Bongo Fleva musicians, particularly Diamond Platnumz, one of the leading celebrities in this genre, were found to influence most of the respondents’ travel intentions – he posted a picture on his Instagram account of him touring the Serengeti National Park.

The study focused on domestic tourists residing in four of the Mainland Tanzania’s largest regions, hence excluding those residing on the islands of Unguja and Pemba. Due to cultural differences, including the islands not only could unleash new perspectives on celebrity involvement dimensions but also could have introduced new determinants of travel intentions.

This study offers guidance to tourism businesses on designing their marketing campaigns that they should harness celebrity’s attractive qualities effectively. The focus should be directed not only towards linking destinations with celebrities but also on stimulating positive perception of those destinations, aligning with the attitudes of their followers.

The study has set out a new perspective for researchers, practitioners and tourism businesses to refine their promotional strategies and for academicians to gain a deeper understanding of visitor behavioural intention dynamics.

This study has proposed and verified that attraction is a dominant determinant compared to self-expression and centrality in explaining tourists’ travel intentions and attitudes, which play a significant role in explaining such a relationship. Although the study employed a modified theory of planned behaviour in a celebrity involvement study, the findings have broadened the understanding and its applicability in the context of a developing country.

The aim of the study was to analyze the performance of Black-Litterman (BL) portfolios using a views estimation procedure that simulates investor forecasts based on technical analysis.

Ibovespa, S&P500, Bitcoin and interbank deposit rate (IDR) indexes were respectively considered proxies for the national, international, cryptocurrency and fixed income stock markets. Forecasts were made out of the sample aiming at incorporating them in the BL model, using several portfolio weighting methods from June 13, 2013 to August 30, 2022.

The Sharpe, Treynor and Omega ratios point out that the proposed model, considering only variable return assets, generates portfolios with performances superior to their traditionally calculated counterparts, with emphasis on the risk parity portfolio. Nonetheless, the inclusion of the IDR leads to performance losses, especially in scenarios with lower risk tolerance. And finally, given the impact of turnover, the naive portfolio was also detected as a viable alternative.

The results obtained can contribute to improve investors practices, specifically by validating both the performance improvement – when including foreign assets and cryptocurrencies –, and the application of the BL model for asset pricing.

The main contributions of the study are: performance analysis incorporating cryptocurrencies and international assets in an uncertain recent period; the use of a methodology to compute the views simulating the behavior of managers using technical analysis; and comparing the performance of portfolio management strategies based on the BL model, taking into account different levels of risk and uncertainty.

Due to the uniqueness of individual construction projects, identifying the dominant risk factors is needed for risk mitigation in ongoing and future projects. This study aims to identify the dominant construction supply chain risk (CSCR) factors, based on studies conducted between 2002 and 2022.

The study adopts the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis (PRISMA) procedure to identify, screen and select relevant articles in order to provide a bibliography and annotation of the prevalent risks in the supply chains. A descriptive analysis of the findings then follows.

The study’s findings have highlighted the three most prevalent risks in the construction supply chain (poor communication across project teams, changes in foreign currency rate, unfavorable climate conditions) as reported in literature, that project teams need to pay closer attention to and take proactive steps to mitigate.

Due to limitations imposed by the chosen research methodology, tools, time frame and article availability, the study was unable to examine all CSCR-related papers.

The results will serve as a useful roadmap for risk/supply chain managers in the construction industry to take strategically proactive steps towards allocating resources for CSCR mitigation efforts.

Context-specific research on the impact of social and cultural risks on the construction supply chain would be beneficial, due to emerging social network risk factors and the complex socio-cultural settings.

There is presently no study that has reviewed extant studies to identify and compile the dominant risk factors (DRFs) associated with the supply chain of construction projects for ranking in the supply chain risk management process.

While the literature has highlighted the impacts of COVID-19, there is limited evidence on the gendered determinants of the impact of COVID-19 among small-scale rural traders in developing and emerging economies.

Cross-border fish traders who had operated before and during the COVID-19 pandemic were interviewed in a survey conducted in Zambia and Malawi. Logistic regressions among male and female traders were employed to assess the gendered predictors.

Heterogeneous effects in geographical location, skills, and knowledge were reported among male cross-border traders. Effects of household structure and composition significantly influenced the impact of COVID-19 among female traders. Surprisingly, membership in trade associations was associated with the high impact of COVID-19.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the migratory nature of cross-border fish traders, the population of cross-border fish traders at the time of the study was unknown and difficult to establish, cross-border fish traders (CBFT) at the landing sites and market areas were targeted for the survey without bias.

This paper addresses a gap in the literature on understanding gendered predictors of the impacts of COVID-19 among small-scale cross-border traders.