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1 – 10 of 28Kingstone Nyakurukwa and Yudhvir Seetharam
This study aims to investigate the dynamic interconnectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) and monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) in four…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the dynamic interconnectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) and monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) in four nations, the USA, Japan, Greece and South Korea, between 1998 and 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
To comprehend the cross-category/cross-country evolution of uncertainty connectedness, the authors use the conditional connectedness approach. By using an inclusive network, this strategy lessens the bias caused by omitted variables. The TVP-VAR method is advantageous as it eliminates outliers that may potentially skew the results and reduces the bias caused by picking arbitrary rolling windows.
Findings
Based on the findings, aggregate EPU is a net transmitter of policy uncertainties across all countries when conditional-country connectedness is used. MPU receives significantly more spillovers than FPU does across all countries, even though both are primarily recipients of uncertainties. The USA appears to be a transmitter of categorical spillovers before COVID-19, while Greece appears to be a net receiver of all category spillovers in terms of category-specific connectedness. The existence of extreme global events is also seen to cause an increase in category-specific and country-specific connectedness. Additionally, the authors report that conditional country-specific connectedness is greater than conditional category-specific connectedness.
Originality/value
This study expands existing literature in several ways. Firstly, the authors use a novel conditional connectedness approach, which has not been used to untangle cross-category/cross-country policy uncertainty connectedness. Secondly, they use the TVP-VAR approach which does not depend on rolling windows to understand dynamic connectedness. Thirdly, they use an expanded number of countries in their analysis, a departure from existing studies that have in most cases used two countries to understand categorical EPU connectedness.
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This study investigates the impact of uncertainty on the mean-variance relationship. We find that the stock market's expected excess return is positively related to the market's…
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of uncertainty on the mean-variance relationship. We find that the stock market's expected excess return is positively related to the market's conditional variances and implied variance during low uncertainty periods but unrelated or negatively related to conditional variances and implied variance during high uncertainty periods. Our empirical evidence is consistent with investors' attitudes toward uncertainty and risk, firms' fundamentals and leverage effects varying with uncertainty. Additionally, we discover that the negative relationship between returns and contemporaneous innovations of conditional variance and the positive relationship between returns and contemporaneous innovations of implied variance are significant during low uncertainty periods. Furthermore, our results are robust to changing the base assets to mimic the uncertainty factor and removing the effect of investor sentiment.
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Ahlem Lamine, Ahmed Jeribi and Tarek Fakhfakh
This study analyzes the static and dynamic risk spillover between US/Chinese stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold using daily data from August 24, 2018, to January 29, 2021…
Abstract
Purpose
This study analyzes the static and dynamic risk spillover between US/Chinese stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold using daily data from August 24, 2018, to January 29, 2021. This study provides practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover indices based on the forecast error variance decomposition from vector autoregression framework. This approach allows the authors to examine both return and volatility spillover before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. First, the authors used a static analysis to calculate the return and volatility spillover indices. Second, the authors make a dynamic analysis based on the 30-day moving window spillover index estimation.
Findings
Generally, results show evidence of significant spillovers between markets, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, cryptocurrencies and gold markets are net receivers of risk. This study provides also practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers. The reached findings suggest that the mix of Bitcoin (or Ethereum), gold and equities could offer diversification opportunities for US and Chinese investors. Gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum can be considered as safe havens or as hedging instruments during the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, Stablecoins (Tether and TrueUSD) do not offer hedging opportunities for US and Chinese investors.
Originality/value
The paper's empirical contribution lies in examining both return and volatility spillover between the US and Chinese stock market indices, gold and cryptocurrencies before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This contribution goes a long way in helping investors to identify optimal diversification and hedging strategies during a crisis.
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Jaewon Choi and Jieun Lee
The authors estimate systemic risk in the Korean economy using the econometric measures of commonality and connectedness applied to stock returns. To assess potential systemic…
Abstract
The authors estimate systemic risk in the Korean economy using the econometric measures of commonality and connectedness applied to stock returns. To assess potential systemic risk concerns arising from the high concentration of the economy in large business groups and a few export-oriented sectors, the authors perform three levels of estimation using individual stocks, business groups, and industry returns. The results show that the measures perform well over the study’s sample period by indicating heightened levels of commonality and interconnectedness during crisis periods. In out-of-sample tests, the measures can predict future losses in the stock market during the crises. The authors also provide the recent readings of their measures at the market, chaebol, and industry levels. Although the measures indicate systemic risk is not a major concern in Korea, as they tend to be at the lowest level since 1998, there is an increasing trend in commonality and connectedness since 2017. Samsung and SK exhibit increasing degrees of commonality and connectedness, perhaps because of their heavy dependence on a few major member firms. Commonality in the finance industry has not subsided since the financial crisis, suggesting that systemic risk is still a concern in the banking sector.
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Sanshao Peng, Catherine Prentice, Syed Shams and Tapan Sarker
Given the cryptocurrency market boom in recent years, this study aims to identify the factors influencing cryptocurrency pricing and the major gaps for future research.
Abstract
Purpose
Given the cryptocurrency market boom in recent years, this study aims to identify the factors influencing cryptocurrency pricing and the major gaps for future research.
Design/methodology/approach
A systematic literature review was undertaken. Three databases, Scopus, Web of Science and EBSCOhost, were used for this review. The final analysis comprised 88 articles that met the eligibility criteria.
Findings
The influential factors were identified and categorized as supply and demand, technology, economics, market volatility, investors’ attributes and social media. This review provides a comprehensive and consolidated view of cryptocurrency pricing and maps the significant influential factors.
Originality/value
This paper is the first to systematically and comprehensively review the relevant literature on cryptocurrency to identify the factors of pricing fluctuation. This research contributes to cryptocurrency research as well as to consumer behaviors and marketing discipline in broad.
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Amin Pujiati, Triani Nurbaeti and Nadia Damayanti
This paper aims to identify variables that determine the differing levels of environmental quality on Java and other islands in Indonesia.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to identify variables that determine the differing levels of environmental quality on Java and other islands in Indonesia.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a quantitative approach, secondary data were sourced from the Central Statistics Agency and the Ministry of Environment and Forestry. The data were obtained through the collection of documentation from 33 provinces in Indonesia. The analytical approach used was discriminant analysis. The research variables are Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), industry, HDI and population growth.
Findings
The variables that distinguish between the levels of environmental quality in Indonesian provinces on the island of Java and on other islands are Industry, HDI, FDI and population growth. The openness variable is not a differentiating variable for environmental quality. The most powerful variable as a differentiator of environmental quality on Java Island and on other islands is the Industry variable.
Research limitations/implications
This study has not classified the quality of the environment based on the Ministry of Environment and Forestry's categories, namely, the very good, good, quite good, poor, very poor and dangerous. For this reason, further research is needed using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA).
Practical implications
Industry is the variable that most strongly distinguishes between levels of environmental quality on Java and other island, while the industrial sector is the largest contributor to gross regional domestic product (GDRP). Government policy to develop green technology is mandatory so that there is no trade-off between industry and environmental quality.
Originality/value
This study is able to identify the differentiating variables of environmental quality in two different groups, on Java and on the other islands of the Indonesian archipelago.
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It is crucial to find a better portfolio optimization strategy, considering the cryptocurrencies' asymmetric volatilities. Hence, this research aimed to present dynamic…
Abstract
Purpose
It is crucial to find a better portfolio optimization strategy, considering the cryptocurrencies' asymmetric volatilities. Hence, this research aimed to present dynamic optimization on minimum variance (MVP), equal risk contribution (ERC) and most diversified portfolio (MDP).
Design/methodology/approach
This study applied dynamic covariances from multivariate GARCH(1,1) with Student’s-t-distribution. This research also constructed static optimization from the conventional MVP, ERC and MDP as comparison. Moreover, the optimization involved transaction cost and out-of-sample analysis from the rolling windows method. The sample consisted of ten significant cryptocurrencies.
Findings
Dynamic optimization enhanced risk-adjusted return. Moreover, dynamic MDP and ERC could win the naïve strategy (1/N) under various estimation windows, and forecast lengths when the transaction cost ranging from 10 bps to 50 bps. The researcher also used another researcher's sample as a robustness test. Findings showed that dynamic optimization (MDP and ERC) outperformed the benchmark.
Practical implications
Sophisticated investors may use the dynamic ERC and MDP to optimize cryptocurrencies portfolio.
Originality/value
To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper that studies the dynamic optimization on MVP, ERC and MDP using DCC and ADCC-GARCH with multivariate-t-distribution and rolling windows method.
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Michael Kaku Minlah, Xibao Zhang, Philipine Nelly Ganyoh and Ayesha Bibi
This study investigates the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for deforestation for Ghana over the 1962–2018 the time period.
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for deforestation for Ghana over the 1962–2018 the time period.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs a time-varying approach, the bootstrap rolling window Granger causality test to achieve its set objectives.
Findings
The results from our study reveals an inverted “N” shape EKC for deforestation, implying that deforestation will initially decrease with increases in economic growth up to a certain income threshold and increases with further increases in economic growth beyond this income threshold up to a higher income threshold and then decrease with further increases in economic beyond the higher income threshold.
Practical implications
The results from the study project show that over time economic growth can serve as a natural panacea to cure and mitigate the ills of deforestation that have plagued Ghana's forests over the years.
Social implications
The results further highlight the important role of strong institutions in fighting the deforestation menace.
Originality/value
The originality of this study lies in its methodology which allows for feedback from deforestation to the economy. This is in contrast to earlier studies on the EKC for deforestation which allowed causality only from deforestation to the economy.
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Junchao Li and Shan Huang
Under the background of the overall increase of China's economic policy uncertainty and the urgent need for the transformation and upgrading of the substantial economy, this paper…
Abstract
Purpose
Under the background of the overall increase of China's economic policy uncertainty and the urgent need for the transformation and upgrading of the substantial economy, this paper studies the time-varying causality between China's economic policy uncertainty and the growth of the substantial economy through bootstrap rolling window causality test, further refines economic policies and studies the causal differences between different types of economic policies and substantial economic growth, refining the conclusions of previous studies.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper first studies the causal relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and substantial economic growth in the full sample period through bootstrap Granger causality test. Then, the paper tests the short-term and long-term stability of the parameters of the VAR model, and it is found that the model parameters are unstable in both the short and long term, so the results of the Granger causality test of the full sample are not credible. Finally, we conduct a dynamic test of the causal relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and substantial economic growth by means of rolling window, so as to comprehensively analyze the dynamic characteristics and sudden changes of the relationship between them.
Findings
The research shows that economic policy uncertainty in China has a significant inhibiting effect on the growth of substantial economy. Growth in the substantial economy will drive up economic policy uncertainty before 2016 and restrain it after that. In addition, this paper further subdivides economic policy uncertainty to explore the causal differences between different types of economic policy uncertainty and substantial economic growth. The test results show that the relationship between them has obvious policy heterogeneity. The fiscal policy uncertainty and the monetary policy uncertainty, as the main policy means in China, has a significant impact on the growth rate of substantial economy in multiple ranges, but the effect time is short. Although trade policy uncertainty has a significant impact on the growth rate of substantial economy only during the financial crisis, the effect lasts for a long time. The impact of exchange rate and capital account policy uncertainty on the growth rate of substantial economy is mainly reflected after 2020.
Originality/value
The values of this paper are as follows: First, the economic policy uncertainty is combined with the growth of substantial economy, which makes up the gap of previous studies. Second, the economic policy uncertainty is further subdivided. The paper explores the causal differences between different types of economic policy uncertainties and the growth of substantial economy, so as to make the research more detailed. Finally, different from the previous static analysis, this paper uses dynamic model to examine the relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and the growth of substantial economy from a dynamic perspective, with richer research conclusions.
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Shun Chen, Shiyuan Zheng and Hilde Meersman
The occurrence and unpredictability of speculative bubbles on financial markets, and their accompanying crashes, have confounded economists and economic historians worldwide. The…
Abstract
Purpose
The occurrence and unpredictability of speculative bubbles on financial markets, and their accompanying crashes, have confounded economists and economic historians worldwide. The purpose of this paper is to diagnose and detect the bursting of shipping bubbles ex ante, and to qualify the patterns of shipping price dynamics and the bubble mechanics, so that appropriate counter measures can be taken in advance to reduce side effects arising from bubbles.
Design/methodology/approach
Log periodic power law (LPPL) model, developed in the past decade, is used to detect large market falls or “crashes” through modeling of the shipping price dynamics on a selection of three historical shipping bubbles over the period of 1985 to 2016. The method is based on a nonlinear least squares estimation that yields predictions of the most probable time of the regime switching.
Findings
It could be concluded that predictions by the LPPL model are quite dependent on the time at which they are conducted. Interestingly, the LPPL model could have predicted the substantial fall in the Baltic Dry Index during the recent global downturn, but not all crashes in the past. It is also found that the key ingredient that sets off an unsustainable growth process for shipping prices is the positive feedback. When the positive feedback starts, the burst of bubbles in shipping would be influenced by both endogenous and exogenous factors, which are crucial for the advanced warning of the market conversion.
Originality/value
The LPPL model has been first applied into the dry bulk shipping market to test a couple of shipping bubbles. The authors not only assess the predictability and robustness of the LPPL model but also expand the understanding of the model and explain patterns of shipping price dynamics and bubble mechanics.
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