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This paper investigates changes in risk-neutral distribution derived from Taiwan stockindex options under different market conditions. The purpose of this paper is to explore whether individual investor sentiment significantly influences the Taiwan option prices.

The authors adopt the optimization method to estimate the risk-neutral distribution from the Taiwan stock index options and use the t-test to examine the difference in risk-neutral skewness, kurtosis, and confidence interval between the pre-crisis and crisis periods. This paper tests the impact of individual investor sentiment on risk-neutral skewness and confidence interval in two sub-periods.

The authors find that errors in individual investors’ expectations significantly influence the Taiwan stock index option prices.

The data concerning the sentiment of speculative institutional investors are incomplete for the Taiwan option market. Therefore, this paper focusses on the analysis of individual investor sentiment. Further research can study the impact of institutional investor sentiment in emerging markets.

The previous literature has suggested that option prices reflect information before the information is revealed in stock prices. Therefore, an important implication is to analyze the information quality revealed in option prices by studying whether the changes in option prices are due to investor sentiment or non-sentiment-related components.

Most of the studies in the literature have focussed on the US option market, and their applicability may vary across different microstructures. This paper shows that the influence of individual investor sentiment in an emerging market is different from that in the US market.

The implementation of credit risk models has largely relied either on the use of historical default dependence, as proxied by the correlation of equity returns, or on risk neutral equicorrelation, as extracted from CDOs. Contrary to both approaches, the purpose of this paper is to infer risk neutral dependence from CDS data, taking counterparty risk into consideration and avoiding equicorrelation. The impact of risk neutral correlation on the fees of some higher dimensional credit derivatives is also explored.

Copula functions are used in order to capture dependency. An application to market data is provided.

Both in the FtD and CDO cases, using (the correct) risk neutral measure instead of equity dependency has the same effect as the adoption of a copula with tail dependency instead of a Gaussian one. This should be important for those who resort to copulas in credit derivative pricing.

As far as is known, several attempts have been made in order to compare the behavior of different copulas in derivative pricing; however, no attempt has been made in order to extract risk neutral dependence without using the equicorrelation assumption. Therefore no attempt has been made to understand which copula features could proxy for risk neutrality, whenever risk neutral dependency cannot be inferred (for instance because CDS involving that name are not actively traded)

The purpose of this paper is to investigate and test for changes in investor risk aversion and the stochastic discount factor (SDF) using options data on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract during the 2007-2011 period.

Risk aversion functions and SDFs are estimated using parametric approaches before and after four specific dates of interest. The dates are: the summer 2008 end of the bull market regime; the late 2008 credit freeze trough; the BP Deepwater Horizon explosion; and the Libyan uprising.

Absolute risk aversion functions and SDFs are significantly flatter (less decreasing in wealth) after the end of the bull market and the credit freeze trough. After these two market reversals, oil market participants were less risk-averse for low levels of wealth but more risk-averse for high wealth levels. Oil market investors also increased their valuation of anticipated future wealth in average states of nature relative to very high or very low-asset return states after reversals. The BP explosion and the Libyan uprising led to steeper risk aversion functions (decreasing more rapidly in wealth) and SDF. Oil market investors were more risk-averse for lower future wealth, but less risk-averse for higher future wealth. Oil market investors increased their valuation of anticipated future wealth in extreme states of nature relative to average states of nature after both dates.

Documenting statistically and economically significant changes in oil market investors’ attitude toward risk and inter-temporal appetite for risk in relation to changes in financial and political conditions.

This paper investigates the effects of risk neutral distribution (RND) from option prices on the distribution of the underlying asset. More specifically, we focus on the third moment of distribution, called skewness, which contains important information predicting the jumps of stock index. The sample period covers from January 2002 to July 2006 with the closing price returns of KOSPI200 Index and the KOSPI200 options. The skewness of the risk neutral distribution is estimated from non-parametric method of Bakshi et al.(2003) and the parametric method of Corrado and Su (1996). When estimating the skewness of the underlying assets, we employ Chen et al.(2001) model and calculate the historical skewness from the1-month ahead return underlying asset. Using statistical methodology such as VAR (Vector Autoregressive model), Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition model, we examine whether the skewness of the underlying asset responds to the change of the implied RND. Followings are the major findings and implications drawn from the empirical analysis of the Korean options market. First of all, skewness of options estimated from non-parametric method have information contents predicting the third-moment of KOSPI200 index return whereas skewness of options estimated from parametric method does not have any information forecasting the skewness of KOSPI200 index return.

This paper investigates the relative importance of the skewness and kurtosis of the risk neutral distribution for pricing KOSPI200 options. The skewness and kurtosis are estimated from non parametric method of Bakshi, Kapadia, and Madan (2003) and the parametric method of Corrado and Su (1996). We show that the skewness of the risk neutral distribution is more important factor than the kurtosis irrespective of the estimation method, the definition of pricing errors, the moneyness, the type of options and a period of time.

For the KOSPI 200 index options market. we examine the power of influence on pricing options of the skewness and the kurtosis of the risk neutral distribution. We compare the Black and Scholes (1973) model which does not consider the skewness or the kurtosis of the risk neutral distribution with Corrado and sue 1996)’s model which consider both the skewness and the kurtosis and the models which consider only the skewness or the kurtosis.

It is found that Corrado and sue 1996)‘s model which consider both skewness and kurtosis shows the best performance closely followed by the model which consider only the skewness for tile in-sample pricing and the out-of-sample pricing. As a result. it contributes to pricing options to consider both skewness and kurtosis and the skewness is more important factor for pricing options than the kurtosis.

The purpose of this paper is to develop new tools to interpret changes in risk neutral probability distributions (RNPDs). It distinguishes between changes attributable to upside potential and those attributable to downside risk, and shows that the distinction is supported empirically.

This paper estimates pricing kernels and RNPDs from option price data, then studies the expected excess returns on a fixed‐strategy reference portfolio composed of the claims defined by the RNPDs. The portfolio is disaggregated so that realized returns can be expressed as a value‐weighted average of returns to upside (investment) and downside (insurance) sub‐portfolios, respectively. An upside sub‐portfolio can be interpreted as defining payoffs to a call option, a downside sub‐portfolio as payoffs to a short put position.

Empirical results indicate that the realized excess returns on the reference portfolios are significantly and negatively related to both S&P index growth and volatility (measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchanges (CBOEs) volatility index (VIX)) in the original data, but neither variable is significant in regressions on data first differences. However, in regressions on both the original data and first differences, realized excess returns on the investment sub‐portfolios are significantly and negatively related to both S&P index growth and volatility, whereas the realized excess returns to insurance sub‐portfolios are significantly and positively related only to the VIX. In regressions on both original data and its first differences the ratio of realized insurance excess return to total return is positively and significantly related only to the VIX. Constant terms are significant in about half of all the regressions, suggesting the presence of additional explanatory factors not captured in currently available data.

The paper shows that upside and downside sub‐portfolios have different return distributions in different market regimes, and that while returns to upside claims depend significantly on both S&P index growth and volatility, returns to downside claims depend significantly on just S&P index volatility. Thus realized excess returns to sub‐portfolios convey more nearly precise information about changes in market attitudes than do realized excess returns to entire portfolios. Although concepts of aggregating and disaggregating information have been investigated in the context of annual earnings announcements in other research, they have not previously been applied to realized portfolio returns in the manner used here. If the paper's findings are sustained in further empirical analyses, they can potentially provide information regarding both the Grossman‐Zhou and Holmstrom‐Tirole theories of claim pricing. Overall, because they distinguish between upside potential and downside risk, these methods contribute to more discriminating ways of understanding reference portfolio returns. In contrast, the CAPM measures of return variance do not distinguish between the risks of returns fluctuating on the upside from the risk of returns fluctuating on the downside.

In this paper, we examine whether the risk neutral skewness and kurtosis from S&P 500 options have information for predicting the higher moments of the stock returns called skewness and kurtosis, which contain the important information for forecasting potential crash, spike upward and the fluctuations of stock index. We find that the implied risk neutral skewness and kurtosis does not provide the information contents for predicting the higher moments of S&P 500 index return, after eliminating the overlapping data. All the results are robust to the alternative measures of risk neutral moments from options prices, the sub-periods and forecasting periods.

Many governments are taking measures in support of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. This paper presents a theoretical model for evaluating various government measures, including insurance for bank loans, interest rate subsidy, bridge loans and relief of tax burdens.

This paper distinguishes a firm's intrinsic value and book value, where a firm can lose its intrinsic value when it encounters cash-flow crunch. Wang transform is applied to (1) calculating the appropriate level of interest rate subsidy payable to incentivize banks to issue more loans to SMEs and to extend the loan maturity of current debt to the SMEs, (2) describing the frailty distribution for SMEs and (3) defining banks' underwriting capability and overlap index in risk selection.

Government support for SMEs can be in the form of an appropriate level of interest rate subsidy payable to incentivize banks to issue more loans to SMEs and to extend the loan maturity of current debt to the SMEs.

More available data on bank loans would have helped strengthen the empirical studies.

This paper makes policy recommendations of establishing policy-oriented banks or investment funds dedicated to supporting SMEs, developing risk indices for SMEs to facilitate refined risk underwriting, providing SMEs with long-term tax relief and early-stage equity-type investments.

The model highlights the importance of providing bridge loans to SMEs during the COVID-19 disruption to prevent massive business closures.

This paper provides an analytical framework using Wang transform for analyzing the most effective form of government support for SMEs.

The purpose of this article is to discuss a Black‐Scholes‐Merton (BSM)‐based market approach to quantify the default risk of publicly‐listed individual companies.

Using the contingent claim approach, a framework is presented to optimally use stock market and balance sheet information of the company to predict its probability of failure as well as ordinal risk ranking over a horizon of one year.

By applying the methodology, yearly estimates of the risk neutral and real probability of default for 150 Indian corporates from 1998 to 2005 were constructed, that give up‐to‐date point‐in‐time perspective of their risk assessment. It was found that option model can provide ordinal ranking of companies on the basis of their default risk which also has good early warning predictability.

The option‐based default probability estimation may be an innovative approach for measuring and managing credit risk even in the emerging market economy. The asset value model developed in this paper based on the BSM model can facilitate the Indian banks as well as investors to get an early warning signal about the company's default status.