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The usual, simple and computationally expensive recovery payment method for a given reinsurance treaty, besides the total run-off triangle, builds a new run-off triangle, say recovery run-off triangle, for the reinsurer’s contribution and predicts the reinsurer’s contribution to the total loss reserves. This paper, without building a recovery run-off triangle, uses the available prior knowledge about a reinsurance treaty to predict the cedent’s loss reserve under five reinsurance treaties.

The authors propose a new solution to the problem of how to consider reserving issues when there is a reinsurance treaty for a portfolio of general insurance policies. Considering this when determining pricing or making capital decisions is very important.

In particular, it considers the quota share (QS) treaty, surplus (SPL) treaty, excess-of-loss (XL) treaty, largest claims reinsurance (LCR) treaty and excédent du coût moyen relatif (ECOMOR) treaty. Then, it develops a theoretical foundation for predicting the cedent’s loss reserve and evaluating such prediction using the mean square error of prediction (MSEP). The impact of such reinsurance treaties on the variability of the cedent’s loss reserve has been investigated through a simulation study.

This paper, without building a recovery run-off triangle, uses the available prior knowledge about a reinsurance treaty to predict the cedent’s loss reserve under five reinsurance treaties. In particular, it considers the QS treaty, SPL treaty, XL treaty, LCR treaty and ECOMOR treaty. Then, it develops a theoretical foundation for predicting the cedent’s loss reserve and evaluating such prediction using the MSEP. The impact of such reinsurance treaties on the variability of the cedent’s loss reserve has been investigated through a simulation study.

This conceptual article presents a schematic for use with extended cybernetic recursion in living systems and applies it to the issue of hyper vigilance as a demonstration of its utility.

The test-operate-test-exit (TOTE) schematic of Miller et al. (1960) is critically evaluated along with other schematics, including those of ordered cybernetics, and a new schematic is proposed, a recursive test-operate-test (rTOT), which emphasizes teleological purpose and hierarchical structure. The background psychophysiology of trauma is reviewed and then rTOT is applied to hyper vigilance, a cardinal component of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

Once the schematic was developed, it was applied to the behavior of hyper vigilance. Other applications are suggested.

As demonstrated, the rTOT schematic has potentially wide application because of its pragmatic and detailed structure.

The rTOT requires careful consideration of teleological purposes for its application and is simple enough, but also complex enough, for relevant utilization. Its compact nature and adjustable hierarchy scope are good mini-max complexity solutions for cybernetic, information modeling schematics.

The revealed teleological purpose of the trauma adaptation of hyper vigilance presents significant alternative formulation options for prevention and intervention.

While the rTOT schematic is derived from previous schematics, it is original in its emphasis on information processing, the teleological aspects of extended recursion and on the provision of a hierarchical structure for those recursions. It is considerably more compact than other schematics associated with the ordered cybernetics literature. The explication of the adaptation model for post-trauma consequences is significantly enhanced by the rTOT application.

Carbon storage in protected land is a practical climate stabilization strategy. It is increasingly being recognized as an essential means of safeguarding biomass carbon and improving local ecological conditions. Yet, increasing soil carbon sequestration by setting aside nature reserves does not depend only on the scale of the reserve but more so on the implementation and enforcement of the reserve protection policy. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned issues.

The authors show how nature reserves established and managed by different administrative levels affect carbon sequestration. Empirically, the authors estimate a time-varying difference-in-difference model that exploits China's distinct four-layered hierarchical nature reserve management system at the county level.

The findings show that higher administrative level (i.e. national and provincial) nature reserves have no effects on the carbon dynamic. However, reserves managed by lower administrative levels (i.e. prefecture- and county-level) are associated with reduced carbon sequestration. The results imply local governments fail to fulfil their responsibilities for nature reserves protection, leading to increased extractive activities and declined ecological biomass.

Responsibility and accountability mechanisms for the violation of the nature reserves requirements need to be stipulated accordingly. Greater emphasis should be placed on nature reserves at the base level. The central government should continue efforts toward the establishment of ad hoc and independent management agencies at the ground-management level that are free of influence from base-level governments.

The heterogeneity in the performance of nature reserves across administrative levels confirms that ecosystem service quality is highly dependent on establishment, management and supervision. This provides a better understanding of the socio-ecological interdependence of protected areas.

This study aims to identify the economic impact of a potential implementation of a Climatic Reserve for the Swiss predominant white grape variety (Chasselas) vinified in the AOC (controlled designation of origin) category. The Climatic Reserve would imply the possibility of harvesting an additional quantity of grapes whose commercialization in wine would be delayed until it is approved by the relevant authority.

The impact of a potential implementation of this wine supply management tool is simulated through an innovative method that combines the vector autoregressive (VAR) model to estimate the influence of the previous consumptions and productions on the current consumption and linear regression [ordinary least square (OLS) method] to estimate the price elasticity to measure the evolution of the price depending on the simulated consumption. The VAR model is based on state-level data about production, stocks, and consumption (all the channels of distribution combined), while the OLS regression for estimating price elasticity uses the retail market data (Nielsen Panel). With the sales and price variables on a monthly frequency design, the latter represents about 40% of the wine market in Switzerland.

According to simulations carried out at the level of a region from the canton of Vaud in Switzerland (2000–2018), the increase in turnover linked to the release of the Climatic Reserve would be +3.1% for the indigenous white grape variety Chasselas.

The Climatic Reserve is a wine supply management tool that could complement the existing yield restriction, which does not significantly influence the quantities sold, according to previous studies. Our paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating the economic advantage of this supply management tool to deal with the increasingly frequent climatic hazards in wine production and market. The methodology could be applied to other wine regions (contexts) or other agricultural sectors.

This study investigates the effect of unproven energy reserve news on the volatility of energy firms' stocks. Thus, investors' perception of unproven energy reserves is revealed. Additionally, the study aims to determine whether the effect of the news changes according to time and volatility level.

The general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models consist of the energy reserve exploration news in Turkey for the period 2009–2022 and the volatility of 14 energy stocks.

The results indicate energy exploration news's negative and significant effect on volatility. According to empirical results, energy stock volatility is most affected in the first ten days. Besides, the results show that the significant models of energy reserve news in low-volatility stocks are proportionally higher than in high-volatility stocks.

Only unproved reserve news is included in the analysis, as sufficient confirmed reserves could not be reached during the sampling period. Further studies can compare proven and unproved reserve news effects. Additionally, a similar analysis can be conducted between Turkey and another country with a similar socio-economic character to examine different investor behaviors.

This research includes indications on managing investors' reactions to unproven energy reserve news.

This study contributes to the literature by analyzing unproven reserves. Contrary to previous studies, examining stock volatility also makes the study unique.

This paper examines the relationship between sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and several macroeconomic factors in an asymmetric setting and distinguishes between short-run and long-run impacts. Country-specific factors (e.g. equity index, international reserves, interest rate and industrial production) and global factors (e.g. US stock volatility [VIX], geopolitical risk and oil price) are the main explanatory variables.

This analysis uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach that enables us to study both long-run and short-run dynamics.

This study results show that two country-specific factors (equity index and international reserves) and two global factors (VIX and oil price) are the most important factors and affect CDS asymmetrically.

The asymmetric relationships between sovereign CDS and variables in bull and bear markets can also be studied. Consideration of asymmetries in the variance could also be a fruitful step taken for further research.

The findings imply that investors and portfolio managers should design their investment and hedging decisions related to government bonds by taking into account the existence of an asymmetric relationship.

Moreover, policymakers can benefit from this asymmetric information in the timing of debt issuance.

This paper examines the relationship between sovereign CDS and several macroeconomic factors in an asymmetric setting and distinguishes between short-run and long-run impacts.

This study aims to examine the role of economic political uncertainty (EPU) on various corporate policies, namely, cash reserves, investment, capital structure and operating activities of Indian listed firms.

To assess the influence of policy-related uncertainties, the author uses the India-specific EPU news-based index constructed by Baker et al. (2016) as a proxy for policy uncertainties. This study uses data from listed Indian firms spanning the period 2003 to 2019. The author uses panel regression models with firm-fixed effects to analyze the impact of EPU on corporate policies, including cash reserves, leverage and CAPEX, while considering key control variables.

In response to heightened EPU, firms tend to increase their cash reserves, curtail their investment activities and favour secured financing options. Notably, this study aligns with the “real options” framework, demonstrating that firms with substantial investment irreversibility significantly reduce their capital expenditures during periods of elevated EPU. Additionally, the results reveal that rising EPU corresponds to heightened borrowing costs and increased operating expenses for firms.

In contrast to prior research that predominantly investigated the impact of EPU on the decisions of listed firms in developed markets, this study delves into the role of EPU on corporate policies among listed firms in India. This focus is particularly relevant, given the significant policy changes that have transpired in the Indian business landscape in recent years.

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

This paper aims to examine the effect of volatility in prices of internationally traded commodities (the backbone of most economies) on the stability of the banking industry from three main perspectives; bank liquidity reserves, overall bank risk and bank capital adequacy.

Data were compiled from various sources for 30 emerging economies from 2002 to 2018 and were analyzed using the two-step system generalized method of moments estimation technique.

The study finds that all things being equal, the magnitude and direction of impact of commodity price volatility on bank stability among economies in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) depend on the type and nature of the commodity in question; and the bank stability proxy used. For instance, an increase in crude oil prices is found to foster stability in the banking industry (proxied by bank liquid reserves) but insignificant when stability in the banking industry is proxied using other banking sector parameters. Additionally, government effectiveness and corruption control have varying moderating influences on how volatility associated with prices of internationally traded commodities influence various proxies for banking industry stability.

This study highlights the effect of fluctuations in prices of key internationally traded commodities (adjusted for foreign exchange impact) that are important sources of revenue among economies in SSA on banking sector stability from liquidity, overall risk and capital adequacy perspectives. The influential role of governance in the relationship between volatility in the price of commodities and bank stability is also revealed by the study.

This paper presents the experimental and numerical results of the bending properties of low-height prestressed T-beams. The purpose is to study the bearing capacity, failure state and strain distribution of low-height prestressed T-beams.

First, two 13 m-long full-size test beams were fabricated with different positions of prestressed steel bundles in the span. The load–deflection curves and failure patterns of each test beam were obtained through static load tests. Secondly, the test data were used to validate the finite element model developed to simulate the flexural behavior of low-height prestressed T-beams. Finally, the influence of different parameters (the number of prestressed steel bundles, initial prestress and concrete strength grade) on the flexural performance of the test beams is studied by using a finite element model.

The test results show that when the distance of the prestressed steel beam from the bottom height of the test beam increases from 40 to 120 mm, the cracking load of the test beam decreases from 550.00 to 450.00 kN, reducing by 18.18%, and the ultimate load decreases from 1338.15 to 1227.66 kN, reducing by 8.26%, therefore, the increase of the height of the prestressed steel beam reduces the bearing capacity of the test beam. The numerical simulation results show that when the number of steel bundles increases from 2 to 9, the cracking load increases by 183.60%, the yield load increases by 117.71% and the ultimate load increases by 132.95%. Therefore, the increase in the number of prestressed steel bundles can increase the cracking load, yield load and ultimate load of the test beam. When the initial prestress is from 695 to 1,395 MPa, the cracking load increases by 69.20%, the yield load of the bottom reinforcement increases by 31.61% and the ultimate load increases by 3.97%. Therefore, increasing the initial prestress can increase the cracking load and yield load of the test beam, but it has little effect on the ultimate load. The strength grade of concrete increases from C30 to C80, the cracking load is about 455.00 kN, the yield load is about 850.00 kN and the ultimate load is increased by 4.90%. Therefore, the improvement in concrete strength grade has little influence on the bearing capacity of the test beam.

Based on the experimental study, the bearing capacity of low-height prestressed T-beams with different prestressed steel beam heights is calculated by finite element simulation, and the influence of different parameters on the bearing capacity is discussed. This method not only ensures the accuracy of bearing capacity assessment, but also does not require a large number of samples and has a certain economy. The study of prestressed low-height T-beams is of great significance for understanding the principle and application of prestressed technology. Research on the mechanical behavior and performance of low-height prestressed T beams can provide a scientific basis and technical support for the design and construction of prestressed concrete structures. In addition, the study of prestressed low-height T-beams can also provide a reference for the optimization design and construction of other structural types.