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The purpose of this paper is to investigate dynamics of causal interactions and financial risk contagion among BRICS stock markets under rare events.

Two methods are adopted: The new causal inference technique, namely, the Liang causality analysis based on information flow theory and the dynamic causal index (DCI) are used to measure the financial risk contagion.

The causal relationships among the BRICS stock markets estimated by the Liang causality analysis are significantly stronger in the mid-periods of rare events than in the pre- and post-periods. Moreover, different rare events have heterogeneous effects on the causal relationships. Notably, under rare events, there is almost no significant Liang's causality between the Chinese and other four stock markets, except for a few moments, indicating that the former can provide a relatively safe haven within the BRICS. According to the DCIs, the causal linkages have significantly increased during rare events, implying that their connectivity becomes stronger under extreme conditions.

The obtained results not only provide important implications for investors to reasonably allocate regional financial assets, but also yield some suggestions for policymakers and financial regulators in effective supervision, especially in extreme environments.

This paper uses the Liang causality analysis to construct the causal networks among BRICS stock indices and characterize their causal linkages. Furthermore, the DCI derived from the causal networks is applied to measure the financial risk contagion of the BRICS countries under three rare events.

The most used spatial regression models for binary-dependent variable consider a symmetric link function, such as the logistic or the probit models. When the dependent variable represents a rare event, a symmetric link function can underestimate the probability that the rare event occurs. Following Calabrese and Osmetti (2013), we suggest the quantile function of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution as link function in a spatial generalized linear model and we call this model the spatial GEV (SGEV) regression model. To estimate the parameters of such model, a modified version of the Gibbs sampling method of Wang and Dey (2010) is proposed. We analyze the performance of our model by Monte Carlo simulations and evaluate the prediction accuracy in empirical data on state failure.

This paper aims to develop a dynamic civil facility degradation prediction model to forecast the reliability performance tendency and remaining useful life under imperfect maintenance based on the inspection records and the maintenance actions.

A real-time hidden Markov chain (HMM) model is proposed in this paper to predict the reliability performance tendency and remaining useful life under imperfect maintenance based on rare failure events. The model assumes a Poisson arrival pattern for facility failure events occurrence. HMM is further adopted to establish the transmission probabilities among stages. Finally, the simulation inference is conducted using Particle filter (PF) to estimate the most probable model parameters. Water seals at the spillway hydraulic gate in a Taiwan's reservoir are used to examine the appropriateness of the approach.

The results of defect probabilities tendency from the real-time HMM model are highly consistent with the real defect trend pattern of civil facilities. The proposed facility degradation prediction model can provide the maintenance division with early warning of potential failure to establish a proper proactive maintenance plan, even under the condition of rare defects.

This model is a new method of civil facility degradation prediction under imperfect maintenance, even with rare failure events. It overcomes several limitations of classical failure pattern prediction approaches and can reliably simulate the occurrence of rare defects under imperfect maintenance and the effect of inspection reliability caused by human error. Based on the degradation trend pattern prediction, effective maintenance management plans can be practically implemented to minimize the frequency of the occurrence and the consequence of civil facility failures.

Based on a review of previous research of organizational learning from experience, this paper aims to point out the notable gaps and unresolved issues in the research area and proposes a “multilevel integrated model of learning from experience”, which could integrate current research findings and serve as the theoretical framework for further investigation.

This paper is a theoretical review.

From the individual, team, organizational and multiple levels, in an order of the outcome of success and failure, this study reviews previous research about organizational learning from experience down to the last detail and points out some of their limitations, including relative fragmented-wise, lack of grope about the underlying motivations, lack of overall framework, etc. Then, this study proposes the “multilevel integrated model of learning from experience”, which provides a systematic and fine-grained framework for studies in this field.

This paper emphasizes that true underlying motivations impelling learning from experience shall be identified and exploration for the antecedents shall be further deepened. Besides, this study figures out that various factors played their parts in the process and outcome of learning from experience through both subjective perception and objective experience. Thus, future research shall distinguish the influence of learning from experience, respectively, into “knowing” and “doing”.

This study is an attempt to review and integrate current research of learning from experience in multiple levels and further differentiates the influences of different experience outcomes (success vs failure). The proposed theoretical model provides clear suggestions of where future research should be directed.

In recent years, the application of robots in different industrial sectors such as nuclear power generation, construction, automobile, firefighting and medicine, etc. is increasing day by day. In large industrial plants generally humans and robots work together to accomplish several tasks and lead to the problem of safety and reliability because any malfunction event of robots may cause human injury or even death. To access the reliability of a robot, sufficient amount of failure data is required which is sometimes very difficult to collect due to rare events of any robot failures. Also, different types of their failure pattern increase the difficulty which finally leads to the problem of uncertainty. To overcome these difficulties, this paper presents a case study by assessing fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) to control robot-related accidents to provide safe working environment to human beings in any industrial plant.

Presented FFTA method uses different fuzzy membership functions to quantify different uncertainty factors and applies alpha-cut coupled weakest t-norm (Tω) based approximate fuzzy arithmetic operations to obtain fuzzy failure probability of robot-human interaction fault event which is the main contribution of the paper.

The result obtained from presented FFTA method is compared with other listing approaches. Critical basic events are also ranked using V-index for making suitable action plan to control robot-related accidents. Study indicates that the presented FFTA is a good alternative method to analyze fault in robot-human interaction for providing safe working environment in an industrial plant.

Existing fuzzy reliability assessment techniques designed for robots mainly use triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs), triangle vague sets (TVS) or triangle intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFS) to quantify data uncertainty. Present study overcomes this shortcoming and generalizes the idea of fuzzy reliability assessment for robots by adopting different IFS to control robot-related accidents to provide safe working environment to human. This is the main contribution of the paper.

This study aims to investigate information technology security practices of very small enterprises.

The authors perform a formal information security field study using a representative sample. Using the Control Objectives for IT (COBIT) framework, the authors evaluate 67 information security controls and perform 206 related tests. The authors state six hypotheses about the findings and accept or reject those using inferential statistics. The authors explain findings using the social comparison theory and the rare events bias theory.

Only one-third of all the controls examined were designed properly and operated as expected. About half of the controls were either ill-designed or did not operate as intended. The social comparison theory and the rare events bias theory explain managers’s reliance on small experience samples which in turn leads to erroneous comprehension of their business environment, which relates to information security.

This information is valuable to executive branch policy makers striving to reduce information security vulnerability on local and national levels and small business organizations providing information and advice to their members.

Information security surveys are usually over-optimistic and avoid self-incrimination, yielding results that are less accurate than field work. To obtain grounded facts, the authors used the field research approach to gather qualitative and quantitative data by physically visiting active organizations, interviewing managers and staff, observing processes and reviewing written materials such as policies, procedure and logs, in accordance to common practices of security audits.

It would take billions of miles’ field road testing to demonstrate that the safety of automated vehicle is statistically significantly higher than the safety of human driving because that the accident of vehicle is rare event.

This paper proposes an accelerated testing method for automated vehicles safety evaluation based on improved importance sampling (IS) techniques. Taking the typical cut-in scenario as example, the proposed method extracts the critical variables of the scenario. Then, the distributions of critical variables are statistically fitted. The genetic algorithm is used to calculate the optimal IS parameters by solving an optimization problem. Considering the error of distribution fitting, the result is modified so that it can accurately reveal the safety benefits of automated vehicles in the real world.

Based on the naturalistic driving data in Shanghai, the proposed method is validated by simulation. The result shows that compared with the existing methods, the proposed method improves the test efficiency by 35 per cent, and the accuracy of accelerated test result is increased by 23 per cent.

This paper has three contributions. First, the genetic algorithm is used to calculate IS parameters, which improves the efficiency of test. Second, the result of test is modified by the error correction parameter, which improves the accuracy of test result. Third, typical high-risk cut-in scenarios in China are analyzed, and the proposed method is validated by simulation.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the spatial patterns of different phenomena in the same geographical space. Andresen’s spatial point pattern test computes a global index (the S-index) that informs on the similarity or dissimilarity of spatial patterns. This paper suggests a generalized S-index that allows perfect similarity and dissimilarity in all situations.

The relevance of the generalized S-index is illustrated with police data from the San Francisco Police Department. In all cases, the original S-index, its robust version – which excludes zero-crime areas – and the generalized alternative were computed.

In the first example, the number of crimes greatly exceeds the number of areas and there are no zero-value areas. A key feature of the second example is that most street segments were free of any criminal activity in both patterns. Finally, in the third case, one type of event is considerably rarer than the other. The original S-index is equal to the generalized index (Case 1) or theoretically irrelevant (Cases 2 and 3). Furthermore, the robust index is unnecessary and potentially biased when the number of at least one phenomenon being compared is lower than the number of areas under study. Thus, this study suggests to replace the S-index with its generalized version.

The generalized S-index is relevant for situations when events are relatively rare –as is the case with crime – and the unit of analysis is small but plentiful – such as addresses or street segments.

The authors examined whether stocks with higher left-tail risk measures earn higher or lower futures returns. Specifically, the authors estimate the cross-sectional principal component of a battery of left-tail risk measures and analyze future returns on stocks with high principal component values. In contrast to finance theories on the risk–return trade-off relationship, the study results show that high left-tail risk stocks have lower future returns. This finding is robust to various left-tail risk measures and controls for other risk factors. Moreover, the negative relationship between the left-tail risk and returns is more pronounced for stocks that are actively traded by retail investors. This empirical result is consistent with behavioral theory that when investors make decisions based on experience, they tend to underweight the likelihood of rare events.