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This study forecasts the government expenditure components in Nigeria, including recurrent and capital expenditures for 2021 and 2022, based on data from 1981 to 2020.

The study employs statistical/econometric problems using the Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares approach. Expenditure forecasts involve three simulation scenarios: (1) do nothing where the economy follows its natural path; (2) an optimistic scenario, where the economy grows by specific percentages and (3) a pessimistic scenario that defines specific economic contractions.

The estimation model is informed by Wagner's law specifying a positive link between economic activities and public spending. Model estimation affirms the expected positive relationship and is relevant for generating forecasts. The out-of-sample results show that a higher proportion of the total government expenditure (7.6% in 2021 and 15.6% in 2022) is required to achieve a predefined growth target (5%).

This study offers empirical evidence that specifically requires Nigeria to invest a ratio of 3 to 1 or more in capital expenditure to recurrent expenditure for the economy to be guided on growth.

The aim of this study is to analyze which socioeconomic factors (economic, demographic, and political) most commonly affect the social expenditure of the European Union (EU) and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

A panel data fixed-effects model is employed for 34 OECD and 23 EU countries between 2000 and 2020.

Results indicate that, in all country groups, economic factors have the most significant influence on social expenditures, with income being the primary determinant, particularly in EU countries. The negative impacts of unemployment and inflation underscore the importance of counter-cyclical measures adopted by countries to maintain stability in their social expenditures. The most influential demographic factor is found as the old-age-dependency ratio. While the rule of law affects social expenditure positively, government effectiveness and female labor force participation affect it negatively. The positive effect of Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF) indexes shows the globalization effect, which can be attributable to the compensation hypothesis.

Governments enforce inclusive and sustainable policies to boost economic activities and GDP, thus combating inflation and unemployment and regulating the labor market and socioeconomic problems about aging populations and women’s economic participation to control social expenditures. The rule of law and institutional quality will also boost economic growth.

This study focuses on the effects of social expenditures in a broader view within the framework of the three main factors (economic, demographic, political) and attempts to determine the key factors that account for the differences in social expenditure between the OECD and EU countries.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-05-2023-0384

Our study aims to evaluate the impact of infrastructure and public investment on private investment in machinery and equipment in Brazil from 1947 to 2017. The contribution of our article to the existing literature lies in providing a more comprehensive understanding of the presence or absence of the crowding effect in the Brazilian economy by leveraging an extensive historical database. Our central argument posits that the recent decline in private capital accumulation over the last few decades can be attributed to shifts in economic policies – moving from a developmentalist orientation to nondevelopmental guidance since the early 1990s, which is reflected in the diminished levels of public investment and infrastructure since the 1980s.

We conducted a series of econometric regressions utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as our chosen econometric methodology.

Employing two different variables to measure public investment and infrastructure, our results – robust across various specifications – have substantiated the existence of a crowding-in effect in Brazil over the examined period. Thus, we have empirical evidence indicating that the state has influenced private capital accumulation in the Brazilian economy over the past decades.

Our article contributes to the existing literature by offering a more comprehensive understanding of the crowding effect in the Brazilian economy, utilizing an extensive historical database.

While several existing panel studies have focused on the linear specifications of the nexus between trade openness and unemployment, nonlinear panel studies on this subject remain less explored. This paper examines the asymmetric nexus between trade openness and unemployment in 34 selected sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries for the period spanning from 1991 to 2020.

The Pedroni and Westerlund panel cointegration tests were conducted to ascertain a long run relationship among the studied variables, while the panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach was applied to account for asymmetries.

The study revealed among other things that trade openness asymmetrically influences unemployment in the selected panel of SSA countries. In the long run, the positive shock in trade openness on unemployment is greater as compared to the negative shock.

The implications of this study include the need to (1) ensure the effective monitoring and supervision of trade flows in the sub-region so that their full benefits are maximized in terms of job creation and (2) ensure that a positive trade balance is maintained in the selected SSA countries.

The positive and negative shocks in trade openness are examined to determine their asymmetric effects on unemployment.

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the impact of social inclusion factors and foreign fund inflows on reducing gender-based unemployment in India.

A time series data set for the period of 1991–2021 has been considered, and an autoregressive distributed lag methodology has been applied to measure the short- and long-run impact of social inclusion and foreign fund inflows on reducing gender-based unemployment in India.

According to the study’s findings, both social inclusion and foreign fund inflows are critical factors for reducing male unemployment. However, in the case of female unemployment, only social inclusion factors play an important role, whereas foreign fund inflows have no role in it.

Analyzing the factors that affect gender-based unemployment has always been a grey area in literature. There are very few studies that capture gender-based unemployment in India, making this study a novice contribution. Second, it examines the relationship between foreign fund inflows, social inclusion and unemployment, which is another novel area of investigation. Finally, this study provides comprehensive and distinct results for both male and female unemployment that can help policymakers devise gender-based unemployment policies.

This paper examines how expert practitioners define project governance and develop a project governance system that enables strategy implementation through projects.

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with project governance experts and analyzed the data using thematic analysis. Subsequently, based on the stratified ontology of critical realism, retroductive theoretical triangulation was employed to explain the themes identified using five emergent theoretical perspectives.

By integrating the themes extracted from the data with the emergent theoretical perspectives, a framework was developed outlining the general process through which practitioners make sense of the concept of project governance, formulate an appropriate project governance system for their respective organizations and manage its evolution over time. Furthermore, a holistic approach to project governance was proposed that spans the entire investment life cycle of projects and enables the implementation of strategy through projects.

This study attempts to make sense of the diverse interpretations of the concept of project governance adopted by practitioners. It further summarizes valuable insights from expert practitioners for formulating and enacting effective project governance systems.

This study contributes to the governance-as-practice perspective and the growing stream of literature that views projects as investments. The project governance system is positioned as the steward of an organization's investments in projects.

This study aims to explain the effect of research and development (R&D) incentives on economic growth, focusing on the case of Türkiye. A one-sector endogenous growth model has been constructed. The model includes three actors: firm, consumer and government. The consumer derives utility from consumption, supplies human capital and engages in saving. The representative firm invests in R&D to maximize the current value of profit flows by choosing how much input it will use and how much R&D it will undertake. The public sector provides incentives for labor and capital used in R&D production. R&D has been defined as a function that endogenously increases total factor productivity (TFP).

In line with the stated purpose, this study presents a dynamic general equilibrium model. Then, this study calibrates the model parameters with Türkiye's data.

The results imply that incentives for R&D personnel instead of physical capital have a stronger impact on economic growth.

The findings of this study point to an important conclusion on how to distribute R&D incentives across the two main factors in R&D production, labor and capital. Incentives given to R&D personnel are more effective in Türkiye.

This study shows that the R&D incentives provided by the public sector can be important in emerging countries where many firms have just started their R&D activities. In this study, the authors worked on Türkiye as an emerging country. This study discusses policies on how the R&D incentives will be more effective on economic growth in Türkiye. This study considers that these policies may apply to all emerging countries, due to similar R&D activities in countries that cannot export technology and mostly import technology.

本研究擬以土耳其的實例為焦點, 探討研究與開發 (研發) 的激勵如何影響經濟的增長;具體地說, 研究旨在探討透過不同生產要素所提供的研發激勵所產生的影響存在著什麼差異。

為達研究目的, 研究人員構建了一部門內生增長模型。模型內有三個參與者: 公司、消費者和政府。消費者從消費中得到他們所需要的, 提供人力資本, 並參與儲蓄的活動。為了要把利潤的現值儘量提高, 代表公司透過調控投入的數量和研發的承擔, 投資在研發上。公共部門會為研發生產上使用的勞工和資本提供激勵。研究與開發被解釋為一個以內生方式增加全要素生產率的功能。構建的模型是因應土耳其的經濟狀況而調整出來的, 當中也進行了仿真模擬。

研究結果暗示, 為研發人員提供的激勵, 而不是物質資本, 更能推動經濟增長。

研究結果, 就如何於研發生產的兩個主要因素之間, 即勞工與資本之間, 分配研發激勵的問題上, 提供了重要的結論;就土耳其而言, 分配給研發人員的激勵是更為有效的。

我們展示了在新興國家裏, 公共部門提供的研發激勵是重要的, 而在這些國家裏, 剛開始進行研發活動的公司為數不少。在本研究裏, 我們把土耳其當作新興國家看待。我們討論了若要在土耳其使研發激勵更有效地幫助推動經濟增長, 什麼政策是最合適的呢? 因為那些不能把技術出口到其它地方, 而主要靠引進技術的國家均進行相似的研發活動, 所以我們認為討論得來的政策是可應用於所有新興國家的。

This paper aims to propose a tool to assess local public expenditure effectiveness based on a framework of alignment between outputs, outcomes and impacts – the Index of Municipal Expenditure Effectiveness (IMEE). This index is composed of a set of indicators associated with the typology of local expenditure.

The paper describes the methodological approach used in the development of the Index, considering the insights from the literature review and the opinion of a panel of experts. The indicators of outcomes and social impacts that are part of the Index are intentionally aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as they provide an essential guide to assess public value creation in the current context. For simplicity purposes, three main components of municipal expenditure were considered, namely Education, Essential Public Services and Local Public Transportation. The Index is then illustrated through a pilot application, using data from five Portuguese municipalities.

This study argues that measuring the public expenditure effectiveness based on outcome and impact indicators can provide the data needed for local governments to better understand the effects of their activities over time, ultimately assessing their contribution to public value.

Assessing the impact of local spending is important to ensure the best use of public resources. Linking local public expenditures with the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs is a promising avenue to understand up to what extent the application of the public money is contributing to create public value by impacting on citizens’ lives.

The proposed IMEE contributes to addressing a gap identified in public organizations, including local governments, regarding the lack of consideration of expenditure and outcome/impact relationships, and the use of variables to measure long term impacts.

The effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy have been investigated. However, the effect from a moderating factor that affects this relationship has been largely ignored in the existing literature. This paper investigates how fiscal deficit moderates the effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy for 32 Asian countries for the past two decades since 2000.

The authors use various techniques, which allow cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity in panel data analysis, to examine this relationship in both the long run and short run. The analysis also considers the marginal effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy at different degrees of fiscal deficits.

Empirical findings from this paper indicate that an increase in government expenditure and fiscal deficit will increase the shadow economy size. Interestingly, the effects of government expenditure on the shadow economy will intensify with a greater degree of the budget deficit. The authors also find that enhancing economic growth to improve income per capita and extending international trade appears to reduce the shadow economy in the Asian countries.

The authors consider that policies targeting reducing shadow economy should follow conventional economic policies on economic growth, unemployment and inflation.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study conducted to examine the moderating role of fiscal deficit in the government expenditure–shadow economy nexus in Asian countries.