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This study examines the accuracy and bias of profit forecasts disclosed in prospectuses by New Zealand companies for initial public offerings during the period 1987 to 1994. The results show that profit forecasts in this period are, on average, more accurate titan those disclosed prior to 1987, which were examined in prior studies. However, the results reject the null hypothesis that profit forecasts are accurate. In examining forecast bias, the evidence shows that the forecasts are, on average, somewhat pessimistic, but not sufficiently to reject the hypothesis that profit forecasts are unbiased. Tests of the determinants of error show that larger companies make more accurate forecasts, and forecasts made in the year 1987 are less accurate than in other years. Tests of the determinants of bias show that forecasts made in 1987 are also more optimistic, and that companies with longer trading histories and pessimistic forecasts make less biased forecasts. Forecast period and industry type are not significantly related to error or bias.

The purpose of this paper is to jointly assess the impact of regulatory reform for corporate fundraising in Australia (CLERP Act 1999) and the relaxation of ASX admission rules in 1999, on the accuracy of management earnings forecasts in initial public offer (IPO) prospectuses. The relaxation of ASX listing rules permitted a new category of new economy firms (commitments test entities (CTEs)) to list without a prior history of profitability, while the CLERP Act (introduced in 2000) was accompanied by tighter disclosure obligations and stronger enforcement action by the corporate regulator (ASIC).

All IPO earnings forecasts in prospectuses lodged between 1998 and 2003 are examined to assess the pre‐ and post‐CLERP Act impact. Based on active ASIC enforcement action in the post‐reform period, IPO firms are hypothesised to provide more accurate forecasts, particularly CTE firms, which are less likely to have a reasonable basis for forecasting. Research models are developed to empirically test the impact of the reforms on CTE and non‐CTE IPO firms.

The new regulatory environment has had a positive impact on management forecasting behaviour. In the post‐CLERP Act period, the accuracy of prospectus forecasts and their revisions significantly improved and, as expected, the results are primarily driven by CTE firms. However, the majority of prospectus forecasts continue to be materially inaccurate.

The results highlight the need to control for both the changing nature of listed firms and the level of enforcement action when examining responses to regulatory changes to corporate fundraising activities.

This study aims to examine the accuracy of the earnings forecasts (EFs) included in the prospectuses of newly established firms in Jordan.

Prospectuses of 41 newly formed public companies in Amman stock exchange during the period 1992‐1996 are tested to identify the accuracy of EF and the association between EF and certain firm characteristics. These include auditor's reputation (AUD), retained ownership, plant assets, DE, BVPSH, market value to book value (MV2BV), size and forecast period.

Findings show that forecasts are optimistic and retained ownership ratio, MV2BV, and the losses in SHPs are associated with forecast errors.

The sample is limited to companies that are required to provide earnings estimates in their prospectuses. Thus holding companies, insurance companies and private firms which went public are excluded from the sample.

Investors are advised to seek other information as the EF are biased.

The paper highlights that Jordanian regulators need to address the inaccuracy of earnings which can give negative signals to local and foreign investors.

This paper aims to provide a chronological review of changes in the institutional setting regulating Australian initial public offering (IPO) firms’ earnings forecasts over the period from 1994 to 2012. The changing forecasting environment covers both IPO firms’ prospectus earnings forecasts and post-listing updates to those forecasts.

This historical analysis reviews the changes in corporate regulation and enforcement, Australian Securities Exchange listing requirements and the outcomes of securities class actions (SCA) that affect IPO firms’ earnings forecasts.

A review of the institutional setting regulating Australian IPO firms’ earnings forecasts reveals two inter-temporal shifts in (increasing) litigation risk over 1994-2012 period which have arisen from more onerous regulations, stronger regulatory enforcement and a more active SCA market. The authors document the corporate responses to those shifts.

This is the first study to comprehensively document research of an inter-temporal litigation risk shift on IPO firms’ earnings forecasting behaviour. It therefore provides a formative base and a useful resource for researchers, practitioners and investigators (regulators, forensic accountants, etc.) when examining the impact of the changes on IPO firms’ forecasting behaviour following regulatory change and enforcement.

This paper aims to examine the impact of disclosure regulation on the levels of bias and accuracy in management earnings forecasts disclosed in the prospectuses of Malaysian initial public offering (IPO). Specifically, the authors investigated the two environments of regulation (mandatory versus voluntary) to draw some conclusions regarding the benefits of regulating disclosure of management earnings forecasts.

A sample of 111 Malaysian IPOs listing on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia from January 1, 2004 to February 29, 2012 was used. The paper uses both univariate and multivariate statistical analyses on this sample of IPOs.

The empirical results of these multivariate regressions indicated that disclosure regulation has positive and significant impact on the bias and accuracy of management earnings forecasts disclosed in IPO prospectus. In general, the study results suggest that using disclosure regulation to improve the quality of IPO earnings forecasts can be, to some extent, an effective strategy.

The findings of this study have important implications for regulators and investors. The findings can provide them some relevant insights on the improvements to the earnings forecasts accuracy and trends of the forecast (optimistic or pessimistic) after the change from mandatory to voluntary disclosure. Thus, the authorities may learn whether this change is an effective policy or whether the regime of mandatory disclosure was better for IPO companies and should be reversed.

This study is regarded as the first attempt to investigate the impact of reforms in disclosure regulation on the quality of management earnings forecasts of IPO prospectuses in a developing nation such as Malaysia. In spite of this, the paper focuses on a single country, and it contributes significant insights to the debate about the credibility of IPO management earnings forecasts.

This paper aims to focus on how forecasts information is disclosed in IPO prospectuses. In France, managers report either detailed forecasts or only a brief summary.

The authors investigate the determinants and consequences of the varying levels of details provided in these forecasts. The research is based on a sample of 82 IPOs on the Euronext Paris market (2000‐2002).

The paper shows that only two variables are associated with highly detailed forecast disclosures: forecast horizon and firm age. It is also found that the forecast error decreases as the level of detail in the forecast disclosures increases. This finding is robust to a reverse causality test (Heckman two‐stage self‐selection procedure) and suggests that the level of detail in forecast disclosures enhances the reliability of earnings forecasts.

The paper suffers from at least two potential flaws. First, omitted variables, such as the possession of good news or proprietary costs. can influence both forecast errors and the level of detail of forecasts. Second, the negative association between the level of detail in forecast information and forecast errors may either show that detailed information leads to less forecast error or reflect a self‐selection bias.

This research could have implications for stock market regulators as it suggests that mandatory disclosure of highly detailed forecasts would improve the effeciency of the markets by reducing forecast error.

This paper contributes to be literature by presenting evidence tha the way forecast information is disclosed in IPO prospectuses is of importance and by documenting a negative association between forecast error and the level of detail in forecast disclosures.

The main purpose of this study is to examine the disclosure of earnings forecasts in firms' prospectuses to explain investor demands or, in other words, oversubscription rates of Malaysian initial public offerings (IPOs).

Ordinary least squares and robust methods were used to examine cross-sectional data comprising 466 fixed-price IPOs reported for the period from January 2000 to February 2020 on Bursa Malaysia.

The results showed that IPOs with earnings forecasts obtained higher oversubscription rates than those without earnings forecasts. IPOs with earnings forecasts provide value-relevant signals to prospective investors about the good prospects of firms, resulting in an increase in the demand for IPO shares. For the IPO samples listed during the global financial crisis (GFC) period, IPOs with earnings forecasts had negative impacts on the oversubscription rates. These results were robust to quantile methods and the two-stage least squares method.

The research findings provide fresh information for investors regarding the importance of earnings forecasts as a trustworthy signal of a firm’s quality when making share subscription decisions.

The regulator is advised to encourage issuers to include earnings forecasts in their prospectuses since such forecasts help to increase the demand for IPOs.

This study contributes to the literature by offering empirical evidence regarding the signalling impact of earnings forecast disclosures on investor demands for Malaysian IPOs. Moreover, this study provides evidence demonstrating the impact of earnings forecast disclosures on oversubscription rates of Malaysian IPOs during the GFC period.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of audit quality and ownership structure on the degrees of accuracy and bias in earnings forecasts issued in initial public offering (IPO) prospectuses in a frontier market, Bangladesh.

The paper uses both univariate and multivariate tests on the sample of 75 IPOs. The paper employs the tests to see the association between the degree of forecast bias and three corporate governance variables.

The results reveal that the magnitude of earnings forecast bias is significantly explained by issuer, auditor reputation, proportions of capital raised from domestic as well as foreign investors, and whether the IPO firm is a start-up venture. Underwriter prestige, length of the issuing firms' operating history, leverage, whether the firm went public during a stock market boom, and forecast horizon do not appear to be statistically significant in explaining the degree of forecast bias.

Although auditor reputation and the proportion of equity retained by pre-IPO owners have been investigated in several studies on IPO forecast accuracy and/or bias, no study has attributed them to corporate governance as a whole by combining auditor reputation, and ownership categories held by small private investors and foreign portfolio investors.

The purpose of this paper is to measure the accuracy of management profit forecast in initial public offerings (IPO) prospectuses and investigate the determinants of any observed forecast error in Indonesia.

A sample of 105 Indonesian IPO firms over a ten-year period, 1999-2008, is used in the present study. The accuracy of management profit forecasts, or forecast errors, in IPO prospectuses is calculated, following Lee et al. (2006), over the ten-year sample period. Then, a multivariate model, following the extant literature, is used to identify the determinants of any observed forecast error in Indonesia.

A mean (median) forecast error of 19 percent (9 percent) is reported over the entire sample period. Multivariate analysis shows that, among the explanatory variables used in the present study, forecast horizon and management optimism seem to be the most significant determinants of forecast error in Indonesia.

The ordinary, specifically small, investors in Indonesia lack the sophistication needed to evaluate new issues while alternative independent sources of information or analysis on IPOs are virtually non-existent. Consequently, whether the forecasts made by the managers during IPOs are reliable or not is of particular importance in Indonesia.

Indonesia is a significant emerging market in Asia. However, to date, no published work has examined the accuracy of management profit forecasts or forecast errors in this market. The present study attempts to fill this gap in the literature and is the first to capture the magnitude/degree of forecast accuracy or error and investigate the determinants of the documented forecast error in Indonesia using a sample of 105 IPO firms over the period 1999 through 2008.

This paper aims to extend the research into company financial forecasts by modelling naïve earnings forecasts derived from normalised historic accounting data disclosed during Australian initial public offerings (IPOs). It seeks to investigate naïve forecast errors and compare them against their management forecast counterparts. It also seeks to investigate determinants of differential error behaviour.

IPOs were sampled and their prospectus forecasts, historic financial data and subsequent actual financial performance were analysed. Directional and absolute forecast error behaviour was analysed using univariate and multivariate techniques.

Systematic factors associated with error behaviour were observed across the management forecasts and the naïve forecasts, the most notable being audit quality. In certain circumstances, the naïve forecasts performed at least as well as management forecasts. In particular, forecast interval was an important discriminator for accuracy, with the superiority of management forecasts only observed for shorter forecast intervals.

The results imply a level of “disclosure management” regarding company IPO forecasts and normalised historic accounting data, with forecast overestimation and error size more extreme in the absence of higher quality third‐party monitoring services via the audit process. The results also raise questions regarding the serviceability of normalised historic financial information disclosed in prospectuses, in that many of those data do not appear to enhance the forecasting process, particularly when accompanied by published management forecasts and shorter forecast intervals.