Search results

1 – 10 of over 11000
Article
Publication date: 14 June 2019

Rotimi Boluwatife Abidoye, Albert P.C. Chan, Funmilayo Adenike Abidoye and Olalekan Shamsideen Oshodi

Booms and bubbles are inevitable in the real estate industry. Loss of profits, bankruptcy and economic slowdown are indicators of the adverse effects of fluctuations in property

1374

Abstract

Purpose

Booms and bubbles are inevitable in the real estate industry. Loss of profits, bankruptcy and economic slowdown are indicators of the adverse effects of fluctuations in property prices. Models providing a reliable forecast of property prices are vital for mitigating the effects of these variations. Hence, this study aims to investigate the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for the prediction of property price index (PPI).

Design/methodology/approach

Information on the variables that influence property prices was collected from reliable sources in Hong Kong. The data were fitted to an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) models. Subsequently, the developed models were used to generate out-of-sample predictions of property prices.

Findings

Based on the prediction evaluation metrics, it was revealed that the ANN model outperformed the SVM and ARIMA models. It was also found that interest rate, unemployment rate and household size are the three most significant variables that could influence the prices of properties in the study area.

Practical implications

The findings of this study provide useful information to stakeholders for policy formation and strategies for real estate investments and sustained growth of the property market.

Originality/value

The application of the SVM model in the prediction of PPI in the study area is lacking. This study evaluates its performance in relation to ANN and ARIMA.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 12 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Visar Hoxha

The purpose of this study is to carry out a comparative analysis of four machine learning models such as linear regression, decision trees, k-nearest neighbors and support vector…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to carry out a comparative analysis of four machine learning models such as linear regression, decision trees, k-nearest neighbors and support vector regression in predicting housing prices in Prishtina.

Design/methodology/approach

Using Python, the models were assessed on a data set of 1,512 property transactions with mean squared error, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error and root mean squared error as metrics. The study also conducts variable importance test.

Findings

Upon preprocessing and standardization of the data, the models were trained and tested, with the decision tree model producing the best performance. The variable importance test found the distance from central business district and distance to the road leading to central business district as the most relevant drivers of housing prices across all models, with the exception of support vector machine model, which showed minimal importance for all variables.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, the originality of this research rests in its methodological approach and emphasis on Prishtina's real estate market, which has never been studied in this context, and its findings may be generalizable to comparable transitional economies with booming real estate sector like Kosovo.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 October 2023

Visar Hoxha

The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study uses a dataset of 1,468 real estate transactions from 2020 to 2022, obtained from the Department of Property Taxes of Republic of Kosovo. Beginning with a fundamental linear regression model, the study tackles the question of overlooked nonlinearity, employing a similar strategy like Peterson and Flanagan (2009) and McCluskey et al. (2012), whereby ANN's predictions are incorporated as an additional regressor within the ordinary least squares (OLS) model.

Findings

The research findings underscore the superior fit of semi-log and double-log models over the OLS model, while the ANN model shows moderate performance, contrary to the conventional conviction of ANN's superior predictive power. This is notably divergent from the prevailing belief about ANN's superior predictive power, shedding light on the potential overestimation of ANN's efficacy.

Practical implications

The study accentuates the importance of embracing diverse models in property price prediction, debunking the notion of the ubiquitous applicability of ANN models. The research outcomes carry substantial ramifications for both scholars and professionals engaged in property valuation.

Originality/value

Distinctively, this research pioneers the comparative analysis of diverse models, including ANN, in the setting of a developing country's capital, hence providing a fresh perspective to their effectiveness in property price prediction.

Article
Publication date: 1 March 1996

Paul Gallimore, Michael Fletcher and Matthew Carter

Describes an attempt to predict the value of private properties in the Stafford area from information typically available about the properties’ physical characteristics and…

2715

Abstract

Describes an attempt to predict the value of private properties in the Stafford area from information typically available about the properties’ physical characteristics and location. Discusses the factors influencing property values, including the complicating effect of location, and attempts to build a predictive model using the statistical technique of multiple regression analysis, based on physical characteristics only and ignoring the effect of location. Makes further refinements to the predictions produced by incorporating an additional location effect modelled by means of surface‐fitting techniques within a geographical information system. The results, many of which are presented graphically, are shown to be a significant improvement on the location‐blind model. Offers suggested directions for further research and development of the technique.

Details

Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0960-2712

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 February 2024

Valery Yakubovsky and Kateryna Zhuk

This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of various approaches to the residential property market evolution modelling and to examine the macroeconomic fundamentals that…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of various approaches to the residential property market evolution modelling and to examine the macroeconomic fundamentals that have shaped this market development in Ukraine in recent years.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses a comprehensive data set encompassing relevant macroeconomic indicators and historical apartment prices. Multifactor linear regression (MLR) and ridge regression (RR) models are constructed to identify the impact of multiple predictors on apartment prices. Additionally, the ARIMAX model integrates time series analysis and external factors to enhance modelling and forecasting accuracy.

Findings

The investigation reveals that MLR and RR yield accurate predictions by considering a range of influential variables. The hybrid ARIMAX model further enhances predictive performance by fusing external indicators with time series analysis. These findings underscore the effectiveness of a multidimensional approach in capturing the complexity of housing price dynamics.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the real estate modelling and forecasting literature by providing an analysis of multiple linear regression, RR and ARIMAX models within the specific context of property price prediction in the turbulent Ukrainian real estate market. This comprehensive analysis not only offers insights into the performance of these methodologies but also explores their adaptability and robustness in a market characterized by evolving dynamics, including the significant influence of external geopolitical factors.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 December 1999

Christian Janssen and Zan Yang

An appraisal by an accredited appraiser is often necessary before a proposed development can receive a commitment for financing from a financial institution. Such pre‐construction…

Abstract

An appraisal by an accredited appraiser is often necessary before a proposed development can receive a commitment for financing from a financial institution. Such pre‐construction appraisals are often more difficult to complete than those where the subject property is already developed and accessible for inspection. In this article we are performing a valuation of a proposed townhouse complex prior to its construction. Hedonic estimation is used to estimate the market value of the proposed development. The estimated value of the complex as a whole, and of the individual units, is compared to the prices obtained as the townhouses were built and sold. Insights with respect to the feasibility of the approach for the estimation of the gross retail value of proposed developments are discussed.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 March 2020

Joseph Awoamim Yacim and Douw Gert Brand Boshoff

The paper introduced the use of a hybrid system of neural networks support vector machines (NNSVMs) consisting of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper introduced the use of a hybrid system of neural networks support vector machines (NNSVMs) consisting of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs) to price single-family properties.

Design/methodology/approach

The mechanism of the hybrid system is such that its output is given by the SVMs which utilise the results of the ANNs as their input. The results are compared to other property pricing modelling techniques including the standalone ANNs, SVMs, geographically weighted regression (GWR), spatial error model (SEM), spatial lag model (SLM) and the ordinary least squares (OLS). The techniques were applied to a dataset of 3,225 properties sold during the period, January 2012 to May 2014 in Cape Town, South Africa.

Findings

The results demonstrate that the hybrid system performed better than ANNs, SVMs and the OLS. However, in comparison to the spatial models (GWR, SEM and SLM) the hybrid system performed abysmally under with SEM favoured as the best pricing technique.

Originality/value

The findings extend the debate in the body of knowledge that the results of the OLS can significantly be improved through the use of spatial models that correct bias estimates and vary prices across the different property locations. Additionally, utilising the result of the hybrid system is thus affected by the black-box nature of the ANNs and SVMs limiting its use to purposes of checks on estimates predicted by the regression-based models.

Details

Property Management, vol. 38 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 February 2021

Changro Lee and Keith Key-Ho Park

It is important to forecast local trading volumes as well as global trading volumes because the real estate market is always characterized as a localized market. The house trading…

Abstract

Purpose

It is important to forecast local trading volumes as well as global trading volumes because the real estate market is always characterized as a localized market. The house trading volume at the local level is forecast through appropriate models to enhance the predictive accuracy.

Design/methodology/approach

Four representative housing submarkets in South Korea are selected, and their trading volumes are forecast. A well-established time-series model and a deep learning algorithm are employed: the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the recurrent neural network (RNN), respectively. The trading volumes in adjacent areas are utilized as covariates, and an ensemble prediction is applied additionally to improve the model performance.

Findings

The results indicate no significant difference in prediction performance between the ARIMA model and the RNN, which can be attributed to the insufficient amount of data used. It is discovered that the spillover effects of trading volumes across the study areas can be exploited to improve the predictive accuracy, and that the diversity of the predicted values from the candidate models can be used to increase the forecasting accuracy further.

Originality/value

Whereas property prices have been investigated extensively, the discussion on forecasting trading activity of properties is limited in the literature. The results of this study are expected to promote more interest in adopting a local perspective and using a diversity of predicted values when forecasting house trading volumes.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 29 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 June 2021

Abhijat Arun Abhyankar and Harish Kumar Singla

The purpose of this study is to compare the predictive performance of the hedonic multivariate regression model with the probabilistic neural network (PNN)-based general…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to compare the predictive performance of the hedonic multivariate regression model with the probabilistic neural network (PNN)-based general regression neural network (GRNN) model of housing prices in “Pune-India.”

Design/methodology/approach

Data on 211 properties across “Pune city-India” is collected. The price per square feet is considered as a dependent variable whereas distances from important landmarks such as railway station, fort, university, airport, hospital, temple, parks, solid waste site and stadium are considered as independent variables along with a dummy for amenities. The data is analyzed using a hedonic type multivariate regression model and GRNN. The GRNN divides the entire data set into two sets, namely, training set and testing set and establishes a functional relationship between the dependent and target variables based on the probability density function of the training data (Alomair and Garrouch, 2016).

Findings

While comparing the performance of the hedonic multivariate regression model and PNN-based GRNN, the study finds that the output variable (i.e. price) has been accurately predicted by the GRNN model. All the 42 observations of the testing set are correctly classified giving an accuracy rate of 100%. According to Cortez (2015), a value close to 100% indicates that the model can correctly classify the test data set. Further, the root mean square error (RMSE) value for the final testing for the GRNN model is 0.089 compared to 0.146 for the hedonic multivariate regression model. A lesser value of RMSE indicates that the model contains smaller errors and is a better fit. Therefore, it is concluded that GRNN is a better model to predict the housing price functions. The distance from the solid waste site has the highest degree of variable senstivity impact on the housing prices (22.59%) followed by distance from university (17.78%) and fort (17.73%).

Research limitations/implications

The study being a “case” is restricted to a particular geographic location hence, the findings of the study cannot be generalized. Further, as the objective of the study is restricted to just to compare the predictive performance of two models, it is felt appropriate to restrict the scope of work by focusing only on “location specific hedonic factors,” as determinants of housing prices.

Practical implications

The study opens up a new dimension for scholars working in the field of housing prices/valuation. Authors do not rule out the use of traditional statistical techniques such as ordinary least square regression but strongly recommend that it is high time scholars use advanced statistical methods to develop the domain. The application of GRNN, artificial intelligence or other techniques such as auto regressive integrated moving average and vector auto regression modeling helps analyze the data in a much more sophisticated manner and help come up with more robust and conclusive evidence.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, it is the first case study that compares the predictive performance of the hedonic multivariate regression model with the PNN-based GRNN model for housing prices in India.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 April 2022

AbdurRaheem A. Yakub, Kamalahasan Achu, Hishamuddin Mohd Ali and Rohaya Abdul Jalil

There are a plethora of putative influencing variables available in the literature for modelling real estate prices using AI. Their choice tends to differ from one researcher to…

Abstract

Purpose

There are a plethora of putative influencing variables available in the literature for modelling real estate prices using AI. Their choice tends to differ from one researcher to the other, consequently leading to subjectivity in the selection process. Thus, there is a need to seek the viewpoint of practitioners on the applicability and level of significance of these academically established variables.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the Delphi technique, this study collated and structured the 35 underlying micro- and macroeconomic parameters derived from literature and eight variables suggested by 11 selected real estate experts. The experts ranked these variables in order of influence using a seven-point Likert scale with a reasonable consensus during the fourth round (Kendall's W = 0.7418).

Findings

The study discovered that 16 variables are very influential with seven being extremely influential. These extremely influential variables include flexibility, adaptability of design, accessibility to the building, the size of office spaces, quality of construction, state of repairs, expected capital growth and proximity to volatile areas.

Practical implications

The results of this study improve the quality of data available to valuers towards a fortified price prediction for investors, and thereby, restoring the valuers' credibility and integrity.

Originality/value

The “volatility level of an area”, which was revealed as a distinct factor in the survey is used to add to current knowledge concerning office price. Hence, this study offers real estate practitioners and researchers valuable knowledge on the critical variables that must be considered in AI-based price modelling.

Details

Property Management, vol. 40 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 11000