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1 – 10 of 920A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only…
Abstract
Purpose
A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only consider committing fund in asset which promises commensurate higher return for higher risk. Questions have been asked as to whether this holds true across securities, sectors and markets. Empirical evidence appears less convincing, especially in developing markets. Accordingly, the author investigates the nature of reward for taking risk in the Nigerian Capital Market within the context of individual assets and markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The author employed ex post design to collect weekly stock prices of firms listed on the Premium Board of Nigerian Stock Exchange for period 2014–2022 to attempt to answer research questions. Data were analyzed using a unique M Vec TGarch-in-Mean model considered to be robust in handling many assets, and hence portfolio management.
Findings
The study found that idea of risk-expected return trade-off is perhaps more general than as depicted by traditional finance literature. The regression revealed that conditional variance and covariance risks reveal minimal or no differences in sign and sizes of coefficients. However, standard errors were also found to be large suggesting somewhat inconclusive evidence of existence of defined incentive structure for taking additional risk in the market.
Originality/value
In terms of choice of methodology and outcomes, this research adds substantial value to body of knowledge. The adapted multivariate model used in this paper is a rare approach especially for management of portfolios in developing markets. Remarkably, the research found empirical evidence that positive risk-expected return trade-off, as known in mainstream literature, is not supported especially using a typical developing country data.
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Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei, Anokye M. Adam, Peterson Owusu Junior, Clement Lamboi Arthur and Baba Adibura Seidu
This study investigates information flow of market constituents and global indices at multi-frequencies.
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates information flow of market constituents and global indices at multi-frequencies.
Design/methodology/approach
The study’s findings were obtained using the Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (I-CEEMDAN)-based cluster analysis executed for Rényi effective transfer entropy (RETE).
Findings
The authors find that significant negative information flows among sustainability equities (SEs) and conventional equities (CEs) at most multi-frequencies, which exacerbates diversification benefits. The information flows are mostly bi-directional, highlighting the importance of stock markets' constituents and their global indices in portfolio construction.
Research limitations/implications
The authors advocate that both SE and CE markets are mostly heterogeneous, revealing some levels of markets inefficiencies.
Originality/value
The empirical literature on CEs is replete with several dynamics, revealing their returns behaviour for diversification purposes, leaving very little to know about the returns behaviour of SE. Wherein, an avalanche of several initiatives on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) enjoin firms to operate socially responsible, but investors need to have a clear reason to remain sustainable into the foreseeable future period. Accordingly, the humble desire of investors is the formation of a well-diversified portfolio and would highly demand stocks to the extent that they form a reliable portfolio, especially, amid SEs and/or CEs.
研究目的
本研究擬審查多頻率的及為市場成份的信息流和全球指數。
研究設計/方法/理念
研究人員使用基於改良完全集合經驗模態分解自適應噪聲(Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise)的聚類分析法,取得Rényi有效轉移熵,藉此得到研究結果。
研究結果
我們發現、於大部份多頻率,在持續性股票和傳統股票間有顯著的負信息流動,這會增加多樣化的益處。這些信息流大部份是雙向的,這強調了股票市場成份及其全球指數在構建投資組合上的重要性。
研究的局限/啟示
我們認為持續性股票市場和傳統股票市場大多為異質市場,這顯示了市場的低效率,而且這低效率的程度頗大。
研究的原創性/價值
關於傳統股票的實證性文獻裡是充滿了變革動力的,這顯示了它們以多樣化為目的的回報行為。這使我們對關於持續性股票的回報行為、認識變得實在太少了。於此,大量的企業社會責任的新措施不斷提醒各公司、要本著企業社會責任的理念去營運;但投資者需清晰明白他們為何需在可見的將來保持可持續性。因此,他們卑微的願望是一個較好的多樣化投資組合得以形成,故此他們高度要求股票要有組成可靠投資組合的性質和能力,特別是在持續性股票和/或傳統股票當中。
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Volodymyr Novykov, Christopher Bilson, Adrian Gepp, Geoff Harris and Bruce James Vanstone
Machine learning (ML), and deep learning in particular, is gaining traction across a myriad of real-life applications. Portfolio management is no exception. This paper provides a…
Abstract
Purpose
Machine learning (ML), and deep learning in particular, is gaining traction across a myriad of real-life applications. Portfolio management is no exception. This paper provides a systematic literature review of deep learning applications for portfolio management. The findings are likely to be valuable for industry practitioners and researchers alike, experimenting with novel portfolio management approaches and furthering investment management practice.
Design/methodology/approach
This review follows the guidance and methodology of Linnenluecke et al. (2020), Massaro et al. (2016) and Fisch and Block (2018) to first identify relevant literature based on an appropriately developed search phrase, filter the resultant set of publications and present descriptive and analytical findings of the research itself and its metadata.
Findings
The authors find a strong dominance of reinforcement learning algorithms applied to the field, given their through-time portfolio management capabilities. Other well-known deep learning models, such as convolutional neural network (CNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) and its derivatives, have shown to be well-suited for time-series forecasting. Most recently, the number of papers published in the field has been increasing, potentially driven by computational advances, hardware accessibility and data availability. The review shows several promising applications and identifies future research opportunities, including better balance on the risk-reward spectrum, novel ways to reduce data dimensionality and pre-process the inputs, stronger focus on direct weights generation, novel deep learning architectures and consistent data choices.
Originality/value
Several systematic reviews have been conducted with a broader focus of ML applications in finance. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first review to focus on deep learning architectures and their applications in the investment portfolio management problem. The review also presents a novel universal taxonomy of models used.
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Jian-Ren Hou, Yen-Hsi Li and Sarawut Kankham
As an alternative to hiring financial specialists or investment consultants, robo-advisors offer financially automated investment services. This study aims to investigate how…
Abstract
Purpose
As an alternative to hiring financial specialists or investment consultants, robo-advisors offer financially automated investment services. This study aims to investigate how robo-advisors' service attributes, risk attitude and financial self-efficacy influence customers' choice preferences of adopting robo-advisors.
Design/methodology/approach
Two hundred fifty-one online surveys were used to collect data, and choice-based conjoint analysis was conducted.
Findings
Results show that increasing annual fees negatively impact customers' choice preferences. Promotion, general investment education and additional human assistance have a positive impact. Furthermore, risk-seeking and risk-averse customers require more human assistance than risk-neutral customer and customers with high levels of financial self-efficacy prefer more general investment education and additional human assistance than those with lower levels. In addition, customers in the older age group prefer promotion, general investment education and additional human assistance, while wealthy customers prefer lower annual fees, higher general investment education and more additional human assistance compared to middle-class and low-income groups.
Originality/value
This study contributes to robo-advisor providers to provide appropriate service attributes for each customer group.
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Investors are inattentive to continuous information as opposed to discrete information, resulting in underreaction to continuous information. This paper aims to examine if the…
Abstract
Purpose
Investors are inattentive to continuous information as opposed to discrete information, resulting in underreaction to continuous information. This paper aims to examine if the well-documented return predictability of the strategies based on the ratio of short-term to long-term moving averages can be enhanced by conditioning on information discreteness. Anchoring bias has been the popular explanation for the source of underreaction in the context of moving averages-based strategies. This paper proposes and studies another possible source based on investor inattention that can potentially result in superior performance of these strategies.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses portfolio sorting as well as Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. For examining the role of information discreteness in the return predictability of the moving average ratio, the sample stocks are double-sorted based on the moving average ratio and information discreteness measure. The returns to these portfolios are computed using standard approaches in the literature. The regression approach controls for various well-known return predictors.
Findings
This study finds that the equally-weighted monthly returns to the long-short moving average ratio quintile portfolios increase monotonically from 0.54% for the discrete information portfolio to 1.37% for the continuous information portfolio over the 3-month holding period. This study observes a similar pattern in risk-adjusted returns, value-weighted portfolios, non-January returns, large and small stocks, for alternative holding periods and the ratio of 50-day to 200-day moving average. The results are robust to control for well-known return predictors in cross-sectional regressions.
Research limitations/implications
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to document the significant role of investor inattention to continuous information in the return predictability of strategies based on the moving average ratios. There are many underreaction anomalies that have been reported in the literature, and the paper's results can be extended to those anomalies in subsequent research.
Practical implications
The findings of this paper have important practical implications. Strategies based on moving averages are an extremely popular component of a technical analyst's toolkit. Their profitability has been well-documented in the prior literature that attributes the performance to investors' anchoring bias. This paper offers a readily implementable approach to enhancing the performance of these strategies by conditioning on a straightforward measure of information discreteness. In doing so, this study extends the literature on the role of investor inattention to continuous information in anomaly profits.
Originality/value
While there is considerable literature on technical analysis, and especially on the performance of moving averages-based strategies, the novelty of this paper is the analysis of the role of information discreteness in strategy performance. Not only does the paper document robust evidence, but the findings suggest that the investor’s inattention to continuous information is a more dominant source of underreaction compared to anchoring. This is an important result, given that anchoring has so far been considered the source of return predictability in the literature.
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Xinmin Peng, Lumin He, Shuai Ma and Martin Lockett
An alliance portfolio can help latecomer firms to acquire the necessary knowledge and resources to catch up with market leaders. However, how latecomer firms construct an alliance…
Abstract
Purpose
An alliance portfolio can help latecomer firms to acquire the necessary knowledge and resources to catch up with market leaders. However, how latecomer firms construct an alliance portfolio in terms of the nature of windows of opportunity has not been fully analyzed. This paper aims to explore how latecomer firms can build appropriate coalitions according to the nature of the window of opportunity to achieve technological catch-up in different catch-up phases.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on a longitudinal case study from 1984 to 2018 of Sunny Group, now a leading manufacturer of integrated optical components and products, this paper explores the process of technological catch-up of latecomer firms building different types of alliance portfolio in different windows of opportunity.
Findings
This paper finds that there is a sequence when latecomers build an alliance portfolio in the process of catch-up. When the uncertainty of opportunity increases, the governance mechanism of the alliance portfolio will change from contractual to equity-based. Also, latecomer firms build market-dominated and technology-dominated alliance portfolios to overcome their market and technology disadvantages, respectively.
Originality/value
These conclusions not only enrich the theory of latecomer catch-up from the perspective of windows of opportunity but also expand research on alliance portfolio processes from a temporal perspective.
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Shreya Lahiri and Shreya Biswas
The study analyzes the relationship between homeownership and financial investment of households in the context of emerging markets like India. It also examines how homeownership…
Abstract
Purpose
The study analyzes the relationship between homeownership and financial investment of households in the context of emerging markets like India. It also examines how homeownership affects the portfolio decisions of Indian households.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the nationally representative All-India Debt and Investment Survey of 2019 and employing an instrumental variable approach, the authors analyze the relationship between homeownership and the share of financial assets held by Indian households. The study also employs several sensitivity checks, including alternate estimation techniques and alternative definitions of the housing variables, and accounts for additional factors to ensure that the authors are able to capture the effect of homeownership on the outcome variable.
Findings
The analysis suggests homeownership crowds out financial investment in India due to high repair and maintenance costs. The negative effect is mainly observed in urban households. Further, the findings imply that homeownership leads households to reallocate their asset portfolio. Homeowners have a lower share in liquid short term deposits, indicating the high liquidity risk of their portfolios. On the other hand, homeownership increases the share of long term retirement funds along with no effect on risky asset share. The authors observe that the crowding out effect is more striking for younger households and poorer households with low income, and the effect is lower for indebted households.
Practical implications
The findings underscore the need for financial awareness programs so that housing does not crowd out liquid investments of households. Additionally, the results highlight that policies should first focus on young and poor households as the negative effect is more prominent for these groups. Finally, there is scope for policies to support repair and maintenance costs incurred by vulnerable households to reduce the negative effect of housing on liquid financial investments.
Originality/value
This paper is among the few studies that provide insights into how homeownership relates to financial investment and portfolio decisions in the context of an emerging economy. Furthermore, the heterogeneous effects based on poor economic status and age underscore the need for complementary policies.
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Millennials are a vital generational cohort of the Indian population, and understanding their motivation to participate in the stock market is crucial. This study aims to…
Abstract
Purpose
Millennials are a vital generational cohort of the Indian population, and understanding their motivation to participate in the stock market is crucial. This study aims to understand the investment decision-making behavior among millennials in the Indian Stock Market.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a cross-sectional research design that entails in-depth personal interviews, this study aims to understand the equity investment behavior of millennials. Verbatim texts from interview transcripts were used to analyze the content and arrive at themes.
Findings
The study investigated the motivation to enter the stock market and gained insights into how individuals make equity investment decisions considering economic and behavioral dimensions. The basis for stock selection was predominantly on the self-analysis of investors. Multiple stock selection priorities are also discussed. In addition, informants ensured asset diversification and exercised various strategies to overcome emotions. Furthermore, they suffered from various behavioral biases.
Practical implications
Individual investors are the least informed and most impacted stakeholders in the stock markets; therefore, this study contributes fresh insights to enhance their financial security. The paper also examines some noticeable behavioral tendencies retail investors exhibit and gathers helpful strategies for mitigating behavioral biases.
Originality/value
The uniqueness of the research lies in its adoption of a qualitative methodology that uses the investment experience of millennial investors to reveal the components of decision-making behavior and investor psychology. The findings are thereby unique and have significant managerial implications.
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Sivakumar Menon, Pitabas Mohanty, Uday Damodaran and Divya Aggarwal
Many studies have shown that from a theoretical and empirical point of view, downside risk-based measures of risk are better than the traditional ones. Despite academic appeal and…
Abstract
Purpose
Many studies have shown that from a theoretical and empirical point of view, downside risk-based measures of risk are better than the traditional ones. Despite academic appeal and practical implications, downside risk has not been thoroughly examined in markets outside developed country markets. Using downside beta as a measure of downside risk, this study examines the relationship between downside beta and stock returns in Indian equity market, an emerging market with unique investor, asset and market characteristics.
Design/methodology/approach
This is an empirical study done by using ranked portfolio return analysis and regression analysis methodologies.
Findings
The study results show that downside risk, as measured by downside beta, is distinctly priced in the Indian equity market. There is a direct positive relationship between downside beta and contemporaneous realized returns, indicating a premium for downside risk. Downside risk carries a higher weightage than upside potential in the aggregate return of the stock portfolios. Downside beta is a better measure of systematic risk than conventional market beta and downside coskewness.
Practical implications
The empirical results support the adoption of downside beta in practice and provide a case for replacing traditional beta with downside beta in asset pricing applications, trading and investment strategies, and capital allocation decision-making.
Originality/value
This is one of the first in-depth studies examining downside beta in Indian equity markets using a broad sample of individual stock returns covering a wide time range of 22 years. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first one to compare downside beta and downside coskewness using individual stock data from the Indian equity market.
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Keunbae Ahn, Gerhard Hambusch, Kihoon Hong and Marco Navone
Throughout the 21st century, US households have experienced unprecedented levels of leverage. This dynamic has been exacerbated by income shortfalls during the COVID-19 crisis…
Abstract
Purpose
Throughout the 21st century, US households have experienced unprecedented levels of leverage. This dynamic has been exacerbated by income shortfalls during the COVID-19 crisis. Leveraging and deleveraging decisions affect household consumption. This study investigates the effect of the dynamics of household leverage and consumption on the stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors explore the relation between household leverage and consumption in the context of the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM). The authors test the model's implication that leverage has a negative risk premium by transforming the asset pricing restriction into an unconditional linear factor model and estimate the model using the general method of moments procedure. The authors run time-series regressions to estimate individual stocks' exposures to leverage, and cross-sectional regressions to investigate the leverage risk premium.
Findings
The authors show that shocks to household debt have strong and lasting effects on consumption growth. The authors extend the CCAPM to accommodate this effect and find, using various test assets, a negative risk premium associated with household deleveraging. Looking at individual stocks the authors show that the deleveraging risk premium is not explained by well-known risk factors.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature on the role of leverage in economics and finance by establishing a relation between household leverage and spending decisions. The authors provide novel evidence that households' leveraging and deleveraging decisions can be a fundamental and influential force in determining asset prices. Further, this paper argues that household leverage might explain the small, persistent, and predictable component in consumption growth hypothesised in the long-run risk asset pricing literature.
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