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Article
Publication date: 20 June 2016

Amanjot Singh and Manjit Singh

This paper aims to attempt to capture the co-movement of the Indian equity market with some of the major economic giants such as the USA, Europe, Japan and China after the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to attempt to capture the co-movement of the Indian equity market with some of the major economic giants such as the USA, Europe, Japan and China after the occurrence of global financial crisis in a multivariate framework. Apart from these cross-country co-movements, the study also captures an intertemporal risk-return relationship in the Indian equity market, considering the covariance of the Indian equity market with the other countries as well.

Design/methodology/approach

To account for dynamic correlation coefficients and risk-return dynamics, vector autoregressive (1) dynamic conditional correlation–asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model in a multivariate framework and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model in mean with covariances as explanatory variables are used. For an in-depth analysis, Markov regime switching model and optimal hedging ratios and weights are also computed. The span of data ranges from August 10, 2010 to August 7, 2015, especially after the global financial crisis.

Findings

The Indian equity market is not completely decoupled from mature markets as well as emerging market (China), but the time-varying correlation coefficients are on a downward spree after the global financial crisis, except for the US market. The Indian and Chinese equity markets witness a highest level of correlation with each other, followed by the European, US and Japanese markets. Both the optimal portfolio hedge ratios and portfolio weights with two asset classes point out toward portfolio risk minimization through the combination of the Indian and US equity market stocks from a US investor viewpoint. A negative co-movement between the Indian and US market increases the conditional expected returns in the Indian equity market. There is an insignificant but a negative relationship between the expected risk and returns.

Practical implications

The study provides an insight to the international as well as domestic investors and supports the construction of cross-country portfolios and risk management especially after the occurrence of global financial crisis.

Originality/value

The present study contributes to the literature in three senses. First, the period relates to the events after the global financial crisis (2007-2009). Second, the study examines the co-movement of the Indian equity market with four major economic giants such as the USA, Europe, Japan and China in a multivariate framework. These economic giants are excessively following the easy money policies aftermath the financial crisis so as to wriggle out of deflationary phases. Finally, the study captures risk-return relationship in the Indian equity market, considering its covariance with the international markets.

Details

Journal of Indian Business Research, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4195

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 November 2020

Nikhil Yadav, Priyanka Tandon, Ravindra Tripathi and Rajesh Kumar Shastri

The purpose of the study is to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the movement of Sensex for the period of 2000–2018.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the movement of Sensex for the period of 2000–2018.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the augmented Dickey–Fuller test for the presence of unit root, Johansen cointegration test for estimating the cointegration among the variables. Further, in the case of no cointegration found, the study employed the vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate the long-run relationship and the Granger causality/Wald test for short-run relationship. The study also conducted tests for the prerequisites of the model: serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and normality of data.

Findings

The study found that both the variables, crude oil prices and Sensex are integrated of order 1, that is, I (1), and there is no cointegration between them. Further, the results proliferated from the VAR model unfold the marked effect of previous month crude oil prices (lag 1) on the movement of Indian stock market represented by Sensex considered as the benchmark index. Furthermore, VAR–Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests results indicated that there is a causal relationship between the crude oil prices and Sensex under the VAR environment. The model does not have any serial correlation and heteroskedasticity indicating toward the unbiased and robust estimates.

Research limitations/implications

The study is conducted till the year 2018, and data for the present period (post-2018) is excluded due to ongoing trade issues between the USA and oil-exporting countries such as Iran. The current COVID-19 outbreak has also put serious issues. Due to limited time and availability of standardized data, researchers have considered Sensex as equity index only, but for more generalized research outcome few other equity indexes could have been taken for study.

Originality/value

The study is completely original in nature and is an extensive study of the relationship between the crude oil price and Indian stock market with reference to causality between the variables.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 28 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 December 2021

Asgar Ali, K.N. Badhani and Ashish Kumar

This study aims to investigate the risk-return trade-off in the Indian equity market at both the aggregate equity market level and in the cross-sections of stock return…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the risk-return trade-off in the Indian equity market at both the aggregate equity market level and in the cross-sections of stock return using alternative risk measures.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses weekly and monthly data of 3,085 Bombay Stock Exchange-listed stocks spanning over 20 years from January 2000 to December 2019. The study evaluates the risk-return trade-off at the aggregate equity market level using the value-weighted and the equal-weighted broader portfolios. Eight different risk proxies belonging to the conventional, downside and extreme risk categories are considered to analyse the cross-sectional risk-return relationship.

Findings

The results show a positive equity premium on the value-weighted portfolio; however, the equal-weighted portfolio of these stocks shows an average return lower than the return on the 91-day Treasury Bills. The inverted size premium mainly causes this anomaly in the Indian equity market as the small stocks have lower returns than big stocks. The study presents a strong negative risk-return relationship across different risk proxies. However, under the subsample of more liquid stocks, the low-risk anomaly regarding other risk proxies becomes moderate except the beta-anomaly. This anomalous relationship seems to be caused by small and less liquid stocks having low institutional ownership and higher short-selling constraints.

Practical implications

The findings have important implications for investors, managers and practitioners. Investors can incorporate the effects of different highlighted anomalies in their investment strategies to fetch higher returns. Managers can also use these findings in their capital budgeting decisions, resource allocations and other diverse range of direct and indirect decisions, particularly in emerging markets such as India. The findings provide insights to practitioners while valuing the firms.

Originality/value

The study is among the earlier attempts to examine the risk-return trade-off in an emerging equity market at both the aggregate equity market level and in the cross-sections of stock returns using alternative measures of risk and expected returns.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 49 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 September 2014

Varun Dawar

This study aims to investigate the persistence ability of accounting variables, namely, abnormal earnings, book value, accruals and cash flows over a period of time and…

1836

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the persistence ability of accounting variables, namely, abnormal earnings, book value, accruals and cash flows over a period of time and their valuation relevance in Indian scenario.

Design/methodology/approach

The study utilizes the generalized version of the Ohlson model which links market prices with abnormal earnings, book value and earning components (accruals and cash flows). Fixed-effect panel data regression is used to analyze six years of data on the sample units to determine the persistence and valuation relevance.

Findings

The findings provide evidence on the construct of persistence and value relevance of earnings and book value of equity in the Indian context. The findings further confirm that investors in India are fixated on earnings and fail to attend separately to the cash flow and accrual components of earnings while undertaking their investment decisions.

Practical implications

The empirical findings of the study will enable the analysts and investors to understand the relevance and persistence of accounting variables in case of an emerging market like India.

Originality/value

The study extends the extant literature on value relevance studies in developed markets to an emerging market like India and enriches it in several ways.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 February 2020

Kirti Gupta and Shahid Ahmed

The volatile nature of foreign portfolio flows, especially flows into debt market, has large implications on financial and macroeconomic stability in recipient countries…

Abstract

Purpose

The volatile nature of foreign portfolio flows, especially flows into debt market, has large implications on financial and macroeconomic stability in recipient countries. It is necessary to identify the main drivers of portfolio investments in bond market of developing economies to design effective policies to enhance resilience of the economy and help in managing capital flow volatility. The determinants of foreign portfolio investment to Indian equity market have been examined in literature, but flows to bond market remain unexplored. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to identify the possible determinants of foreign portfolio flows to Indian bond market both in the short and in the long run.

Design/methodology/approach

This study carries out a time series analysis by deploying autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration of monthly data of the period from January 2002 to December 2016 for the Indian economy. A mix of pull and push factors has been analysed in this study. Domestic growth, domestic stock market performance, interest rate differential, exchange rate, volatility in exchange rate, stock market returns in other emerging economies, foreign output growth and dummy variables to trace the external developments such as global financial crisis and unconventional monetary policies of advanced economies have been used as explanatory variables.

Findings

The dominant pull factor such as interest rate differential explains the dynamics of flows in Indian bond market. The relationship between capital movements and interest rate differentials is the most accepted paradigm in international finance (Haynes, 1988). Among other domestic factors are stock market performance, volatility in exchange rates and domestic growth rates which are found to be significant drivers of foreign portfolio bond flows to India. The study also confirmed that global conditions could induce a fast outflow of capital from India.

Research limitations/implications

The study concludes that both domestic factors and external factors are equally important in determining the foreign portfolio investments in the Indian debt market.

Practical implications

The empirical analysis conducted in this study suggests that direct and indirect measures can be taken to increase and stabilise foreign investments in the Indian bond market. Direct policy measures refer to those tools which are under the ambit of policymakers. Indirect measures comprise those tools that are not under the direct control of the fiscal and monetary authorities but require coordinated efforts of the government and private sector. In this context, strengthening of not only financial and economic but also administrative institutions will be necessary. Creditworthiness and policy credibility should be improved to address erratic foreign portfolio investment in debt market of India.

Originality/value

This study is an original research study. This study adds to the existing literature and is expected to guide policymakers on the specific aspect of the management of capital flows as it gets affected by changes in monetary and fiscal policies.

Details

Journal of Indian Business Research, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4195

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 April 2010

Sheeba Kapil and Kanwal Nayan Kapil

The Indian commodity market requires large investments and enhanced trading activity both in the national as well as the regional commodity markets. The participation of…

1445

Abstract

Purpose

The Indian commodity market requires large investments and enhanced trading activity both in the national as well as the regional commodity markets. The participation of non‐professional people trading commodity markets makes the market a risky venture. Non‐professional participants simply add to the volatility factor of the market. There is a dire need for professional experts who are able to provide advice on commodity trading and build commodity inclusive portfolios. Such professional awareness, expertise, and guidance in commodity trading can come from professional commodity traders called commodity trading advisors (CTAs). The purpose of this paper is to offer arguments and insights as to why the Indian commodity market needs the participation of the CTAs. The money brought in by CTA advised clients will add to the depth, liquidity, and trade which in turn will make commodity prices more efficient. As a regulatory measure, the Indian market too can adopt guidelines structured for CTAs by Commodity Future Trading Commission and National Futures Association. The CTAs can bring the Indian commodity market at par with developed commodity markets like Chicago Board of Trade.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper reviews and discusses the various issues related to CTAs applicability in India. The goal of the paper is to outline the need for allowing CTAs activity in Indian commodity market and discuses the key operational and policy considerations in developing the commodity market for CTAs in India.

Findings

The recent expansion of Indian commodity market has not been very structured. The market has expanded with the expansion in demand for commodities both in spot and derivative market. There have been constraints through policy restrictions and at the same time there has been an effort for liberalization of the commodity market to bring them at par with international commodity market. Of late, the Indian equity market has been very volatile. Participation of CTAs will provide much required downside protection to traditional portfolios and they will also provide the expertise in commodity derivative trading to participants and help build the commodity inclusive portfolios with better return and lesser risk.

Originality/value

This is the first paper that initiates thoughts on allowing CTAs to participate in the Indian commodity market. The paper builds on the concept that CTAs would add the desired price discovery, volume, and depth to the Indian commodity market. The Indian commodity market, despite being quite old, has recently broken free from the restrictive policies and has ushered into an era of initiates supporting commodity derivative market development. To the best of the authors' knowledge, there exists no literature on CTAs participation in India.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 October 2012

Abhijeet Chandra

The purpose of this paper is to examine the direction of causality between foreign institutional investment (FII) trading volume and stock market returns in the Indian

1205

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the direction of causality between foreign institutional investment (FII) trading volume and stock market returns in the Indian context. There is evidence of uni‐directional causalities from stock returns to FII flows across various sample periods. The paper attempts to establish whether net FII trading volume causes variations in stock market returns or vice versa.

Design/methodology/approach

Using daily data on three different measures of FII trading volume as proxy for FII trading behaviour and S&P CNX Nifty returns, Granger‐causality approach is applied to investigate the bi‐directional causality between net FII trades and returns.

Findings

Bi‐directional causality between net FII investment and Indian stock market return is observed. In general, the FIIs seem to be chasing the Indian stock market returns. It is found that FII trading behaviour resulting in heavy trading volumes may cause variations in stock market returns only in the very short‐term, but afterwards, it is the stock market returns which cause changes in FII trading behaviour.

Research limitations/implications

Since foreign equity investors monitor the movement of stock prices, and furthermore, the role of FIIs' exerting impact on Indian stock markets tends to be growing, the authorities will have to develop an environment where FIIs would maintain their positions with confidence, thereby making the markets, as well as investments, more stable. This research considered only stock market returns to test its relationship with three measures of FII trading volume; more macroeconomic as well as microeconomic variables may further be considered for the purpose.

Originality/value

The paper contributes some empirical evidence using three different measures of FII trading volume as proxy of FII trading behaviour, and its bi‐directional relationship with Indian stock market returns.

Article
Publication date: 5 November 2018

Ajit Dayanandan and Jaspreet Kaur Sra

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the stock market in India is efficient in the semi-strong form.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the stock market in India is efficient in the semi-strong form.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses financial and stock market data of 1,135 listed Indian companies (non-financial) during 2003–2011 collected from Capital IQ to estimate discretionary accruals (DA) using modified Jones model (1995). The study also examines using the widely used Mishkin (1983) test to whether equity market prices accruals in India. The study is conducted for profit/loss-making firms separately as well as for a hedge portfolio of firms based on the lowest to highest accruals.

Findings

The empirical study of DA of 1,135 listed Indian companies (non-financial) during 2003–2011 shows that the estimated average DA of the corporate sector in India comes to 1 percent of the total assets of these firms. An empirical analysis whether equity market prices DA in India finds no evidence of investors/market pricing DA. Empirical evidence also finds that the results are invariant for profit/loss-making firms as well as portfolio of firms based on the lowest to highest accruals in the Indian context. The empirical evidence shows that the Indian equity market is inefficient with regard to the incorporation of accruals in expected returns of stocks.

Research limitations/implications

This study builds on the previous literature on accrual pricing in the context of the USA and developed markets. The study extends the empirics to the one of the largest emerging market economy – India. This issue is important not only to investors, but also to policy makers and researchers because the mispricing of accruals could potentially lead to misallocation of capital. The study has implications for stock/firm valuations and cost of equity/capital.

Originality/value

This is the first study for the pricing of accruals and test of semi-strong efficiency of the Indian stock market.

Details

Journal of Accounting in Emerging Economies, vol. 8 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-1168

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 June 2015

Jaya Mamta Prosad, Sujata Kapoor and Jhumur Sengupta

– The purpose of this paper is to capture the presence and impact of optimism in the Indian equity market.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to capture the presence and impact of optimism in the Indian equity market.

Design/methodology/approach

The data set comprises the daily values of the Nifty 50 index, index options and Treasury-bill index for a period of five years (2006-2011). The focus of this paper is two pronged. It first investigates the presence of optimism (pessimism) using the pricing kernel technique suggested by Barone-Adesi et al. (2012). Second, it tries to analyze the relationship of this bias with stock market indicators like risk premium, market return and volatility using time series regression.

Findings

The findings indicate that the Indian equity market has been predominantly pessimistic from the period 2006 to 2011. The interaction of this bias with market indicators also unveils some interesting insights. The study shows that high past volatility can lead to pessimism in the Indian equity market and vice versa. It further explores that when the investors are rational, their risk and return relationship is positive while it tends to be negative when they are irrational. The impact of investors’ irrationalities on asset valuation has also been accounted by Brown and Cliff (2005).

Research limitations/implications

The findings of the paper have significant implications for fund managers and asset management companies. It is recommended that they should try to identify behavioral biases in their clients before designing their portfolios.

Originality/value

This study is one of the very few attempts to capture the presence and impact optimism (pessimism) in the Indian equity market.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 September 2017

Amanjot Singh and Manjit Singh

This paper aims to attempt to re-capture the stock market contagion effect from the US to the BRIC equity markets during the recent global financial crisis in a…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to attempt to re-capture the stock market contagion effect from the US to the BRIC equity markets during the recent global financial crisis in a multivariate framework. Apart from this, the study also identifies optimal portfolio hedging strategies to minimize the underlying portfolio risk during the period undertaken for the purpose of study.

Design/methodology/approach

To account for the dynamic interactions, the study uses vector autoregression (p) dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (1,1) model in a multivariate framework, coupled with a monthly heat map relating to the co-movement between the US and the BRIC equity markets during the period 2007-2009. Finally, by following the studies, Hammoudeh et al. (2010) and Syriopoulos et al. (2015), the time-varying optimal portfolio hedge ratios and weights are computed.

Findings

The results report a contagion impact of the US subprime crisis (following the collapse of the Lehman Brothers) on the Indian and Russian stock markets only. On the other hand, a higher degree of interdependence between the US and Brazilian market has been observed. The US and Chinese equity markets indicate a relatively lower level of interdependence among themselves. The optimal hedge ratios are found to be most effective for a portfolio comprising the US and Chinese stocks even during the crisis period. A US investor should invest approximately 30 cents in the Indian market and rest of the 70 cents in the US market in a US$1 portfolio to minimize the portfolio risk without lowering the expected returns. During the crisis period (2007-2009), the optimal portfolio weights indicate a higher weightage to the BRIC stocks.

Practical implications

The results support the construction of optimal US–BRIC stock portfolios and provide an insight to the investors and policy makers both domestic as well as international, with regard to the contagion impact and interdependence, especially during a crisis period.

Originality/value

The study uses a DCC model in a multivariate framework instead of bivariate, wherein all the markets are factored into a single interaction framework across a very long period (2004-2014). Second, a heat map of monthly correlation combinations has been created for the period 2007-2009, to comprehend the contagion impact or interdependence among the markets. Finally, the study ascertains time-varying optimal hedge ratios and portfolio weights for a two asset portfolio, from a US investor viewpoint, making the study first of its kind in all the perspectives.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. 59 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

Keywords

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