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1 – 10 of 19Venkata Narasimha Chary Mushinada
The main aim of this paper is to empirically test at market level, the investors' differential reaction to information, contribution of their confidence level and adaptive…
Abstract
Purpose
The main aim of this paper is to empirically test at market level, the investors' differential reaction to information, contribution of their confidence level and adaptive behaviour to excessive market volatility in Indian stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
The Bivariate Vector Autoregression and Impulse Response Analysis are used to study whether investors over/under-react to private and public information. EGARCH models are used to study the contribution of investors' over/under-confidence and adaptive behaviour to excessive market volatility.
Findings
The investors over-react to private information and under-react to public information during pre-crash period, become overconfident and contribute to excessive volatility. They under-react to both private and public information during after-crash period, become under-confident and also conform to adaptive market hypothesis (AMH).
Research limitations/implications
The empirical results of the study can help investors to minimize the negative impact of over/under-confidence on their expected utility.
Practical implications
The investors shall perform a post-analysis of investment, become aware of their past behavioural mistakes and start adapting to changing market conditions. This shall move the markets towards a new equilibrium in long run thus conforming AMH. However, the investors sometimes display an apparently irrational behaviour during this process.
Originality/value
To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study at market level data examining investors' over/under-reaction, over/under-confidence and adaptive behaviour in the context of stock market crash.
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Ahmed Bouteska and Boutheina Regaieg
The purpose of this paper is to detect quantitatively the existence of anchoring bias among financial analysts on the Tunisian stock market. Both non-parametric and parametric…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to detect quantitatively the existence of anchoring bias among financial analysts on the Tunisian stock market. Both non-parametric and parametric methods are used.
Design/methodology/approach
Two studies have been conducted over the period 2010–2014. A first analysis is non-parametric, based on observations of the sign taking by the surprise of result announcement according to the evolution of earning per share (EPS). A second analysis uses simple and multiple linear regression methods to quantify the anchor bias.
Findings
Non-parametric results show that in the majority of cases, the earning per share variations are followed by unexpected earnings surprises of the same direction, which verify the hypothesis of an anchoring bias of financial analysts to the past benefits. Parametric results confirm these first findings by testing different psychological anchors’ variables. Financial analysts are found to remain anchored to the previous benefits and carry out insufficient adjustments following the announcement of the results by the companies. There is also a tendency for an over/under-reaction in changes in forecasts. Analysts’ behavior is asymmetrical depending on the sign of the forecast changes: an over-reaction for positive prediction changes and a negative reaction for negative prediction changes.
Originality/value
The evidence provided in this paper largely validates the assumptions derived from the behavioral theory particularly the lessons learned by Kaestner (2005) and Amir and Ganzach (1998). The authors conclude that financial analysts on the Tunisian stock market suffer from anchoring, optimism, over and under-reaction biases when announcing the earnings.
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C.I. Kazantzis and N.P. Tessaromatis
Restates the importance of asset volatility forecasts for option pricing and portfolio management and outlines previous research on forecasting models. Discusses the relative…
Abstract
Restates the importance of asset volatility forecasts for option pricing and portfolio management and outlines previous research on forecasting models. Discusses the relative information content and predictive power of implied and historical volatility and the existence of overreaction in option markets. Analyses 1989‐1997 daily exchange rate data for six currencies to examine this. Presents the results, which suggest that implied volatility has more information than volatility based on past prices; and is better than GARCH‐based or historic volatility forecasts for horizons up to three months; but can be a biased predictor of future realized volatility. Finds limited evidence that long term volatilities in option prices overreact to short term volatilities.
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This study proposes a framework based on salience theory and shows that focusing on one type of risk (idiosyncratic or systemic) can explain overpricing of securities ex ante, and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study proposes a framework based on salience theory and shows that focusing on one type of risk (idiosyncratic or systemic) can explain overpricing of securities ex ante, and resales at low prices during crisis periods.
Design/methodology/approach
The author consider an overlapping generations (OLG) model where each generation lives for two periods and there is no population growth. Agents (investors) start their lives with an endowment W > 0 and have mean-variance utility. They invest their endowment when young and consume when old. Each period, the young investors optimally choose their portfolio from different risky assets acquired from the old generation, all assumed to be in fixed supply.
Findings
The author show that investor salience bias can explain excess volatility of asset prices and the resulting fire-sales in periods of financial turmoil. A change in salience – from one component (idiosyncratic) to the other (systemic) – will generate excess volatility. Interestingly, higher risk aversion generally exacerbates the excess volatility of prices. Moreover, the model predicts that if a big systemic shock hits the financial system, due to salience bias the price of systemic assets falls sharply. This relates to the observed fire-sales of assets during the global financial crisis.
Practical implications
The proposed model and results suggest that there may be a scope for intervention in financial markets during turbulences. In terms of ex ante policies the study suggests that investors and regulator should use better risk assessment technologies.
Originality/value
This is the first study constructing a tractable model based on the argument that investor salience may exacerbate the excess volatility of prices during financial downturns. The author relate salience to two types of risk; idiosyncratic and systemic and assume that investors' risk perception is biased towards the type of risk that is currently salient based on prior beliefs or past data. The author show that the diversification fallacy of the precrisis period, where seemingly safe assets were overpriced, can be explained by agents overweighing idiosyncratic risk and ignoring systemic risk.
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Nektarios Gavrilakis and Christos Floros
The purpose of this paper is to identify whether heuristic and herding biases influence portfolio construction and performance in Greece. The current research determines the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to identify whether heuristic and herding biases influence portfolio construction and performance in Greece. The current research determines the situation among investors in Greece, a country with several economic problems for the last decade.
Design/methodology/approach
A survey has been conducted covering a group of active private investors. The relationship between private investors' behavior and portfolio construction and performance was tested using a multiple regression.
Findings
The authors find that heuristic variable affects private investor's portfolio construction and performance satisfaction level positively. A robustness test on a second group, consisting of professional investors, reveals that heuristic and herding biases affect investment behavior when constructing a portfolio.
Practical implications
The authors recommend investors to select professional's investment portfolio tools in constructing investment portfolios and avoid excessive errors, which occur due to heuristic. The awareness and understanding of heuristic and herding could be helpful for professionals and decision-makers in financial institutions by improving their performance resulting in more efficient markets.
Originality/value
The main contribution of this paper lies in the fact that it is the first study on two major behavioral dimensions that affect the investor's portfolio construction and performance in Greece. The rationale of the current research is that the results are helpful for investors in order to take rational, reliable and profitable decisions.
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The purpose of this research is to investigate the short-term capital markets' reactions to the public announcement first local detection of novel corona virus (COVID 19) cases in…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to investigate the short-term capital markets' reactions to the public announcement first local detection of novel corona virus (COVID 19) cases in 12 major Asian capital markets.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the constant mean return model and the market model, an event study methodology has been implied to determine the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of 10 pre and post-event trading days. The statistical significance of the data was assessed using both parametric and nonparametric test statistics.
Findings
First discovery of local COVID 19 cases had a substantial impact on all 12 Asian markets on the event day, as shown by statistically significant negative average abnormal return (AAR) and cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR). The single factor ANOVA result has also demonstrated that there is no variability among 12 regional markets in terms of short-term market responses. Furthermore, there is little evidence that these major Asian stock market indices differ significantly from the FTSE All-World Index which might suggest possible spillover impact and co-integration among the major Asian capital markets. The study further discovers that market capitalization and liquidity did not have any significant impact on market reaction to announcement.
Research limitations/implications
The study's contribution might have been compromised by the absence of socio-demographic, technical, financial and other significant policy factors from the analysis.
Practical implications
These findings will be considerably helpful in tackling this unprecedented epidemic issue for personal and institutional investors, industrial and economic experts, government and policymakers in assessing the market in special circumstances, diversifying risk and developing financial and monetary policy proposals.
Originality/value
This paper is the first to examine the effects of local COVID 19 detection announcement on major Asian capital markets. This study will add to the literature by investigating unusual market returns generated by infectious illness outbreaks and the overall market efficiency and investors' behavioral pattern of major Asian capital markets.
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This study examines the initial two‐week excess performance relative to the S&P 500 Index of American Depository Receipts (ADRs) listed on the New York Stock Exchange from January…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the initial two‐week excess performance relative to the S&P 500 Index of American Depository Receipts (ADRs) listed on the New York Stock Exchange from January 1987 to September 2001 to determine whether short‐term wealth effects exist.
Design/methodology/approach
Standard intial public offering methodology is used to test for significant excess performance.
Findings
Results for the entire sample of 281 ADRs suggest the initial excess performance was not significant. However, after segmenting the sample, emerging market ADRs significantly outperformed the S&P 500 by over three per cent while developed market ADRs underperformed by 0.92 per cent. Also, Latin American ADRs outperformed the market index by nearly five per cent during the first two weeks after issue while European ADRs underperformed the market by nearly one per cent. Asia Pacific ADRs underperformed the S&P 500, but not significantly in the early trading.
Research limitations/implications
The findings suggest emerging market ADRs, particularly those from the Latin American region, perform well in the early trading while developed market ADRs do not. Future research may identify variables that affect or explain ADR excess returns.
Originality/value
The paper provides insights into the types of ADRs that accumulate wealth in the short term investment horizon.
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