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Article
Publication date: 19 March 2020

Venkata Narasimha Chary Mushinada

The main aim of this paper is to empirically test at market level, the investors' differential reaction to information, contribution of their confidence level and adaptive…

Abstract

Purpose

The main aim of this paper is to empirically test at market level, the investors' differential reaction to information, contribution of their confidence level and adaptive behaviour to excessive market volatility in Indian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

The Bivariate Vector Autoregression and Impulse Response Analysis are used to study whether investors over/under-react to private and public information. EGARCH models are used to study the contribution of investors' over/under-confidence and adaptive behaviour to excessive market volatility.

Findings

The investors over-react to private information and under-react to public information during pre-crash period, become overconfident and contribute to excessive volatility. They under-react to both private and public information during after-crash period, become under-confident and also conform to adaptive market hypothesis (AMH).

Research limitations/implications

The empirical results of the study can help investors to minimize the negative impact of over/under-confidence on their expected utility.

Practical implications

The investors shall perform a post-analysis of investment, become aware of their past behavioural mistakes and start adapting to changing market conditions. This shall move the markets towards a new equilibrium in long run thus conforming AMH. However, the investors sometimes display an apparently irrational behaviour during this process.

Originality/value

To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study at market level data examining investors' over/under-reaction, over/under-confidence and adaptive behaviour in the context of stock market crash.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 15 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 July 2018

Venkata Narasimha Chary Mushinada and Venkata Subrahmanya Sarma Veluri

The purpose of the paper is to empirically test the overconfidence hypothesis at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to empirically test the overconfidence hypothesis at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

Design/methodology/approach

The study applies bivariate vector autoregression to perform the impulse-response analysis and EGARCH models to understand whether there is self-attribution bias and overconfidence behavior among the investors.

Findings

The study shows the empirical evidence in support of overconfidence hypothesis. The results show that the overconfident investors overreact to private information and underreact to the public information. Based on EGARCH specifications, it is observed that self-attribution bias, conditioned by right forecasts, increases investors’ overconfidence and the trading volume. Finally, the analysis of the relation between return volatility and trading volume shows that the excessive trading of overconfident investors makes a contribution to the observed excessive volatility.

Research limitations/implications

The study focused on self-attribution and overconfidence biases using monthly data. Further studies can be encouraged to test the proposed hypotheses on daily data and also other behavioral biases.

Practical implications

Insights from the study suggest that the investors should perform a post-analysis of each investment so that they become aware of past behavioral mistakes and stop continuing the same. This might help investors to minimize the negative impact of self-attribution and overconfidence on their expected utility.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the investors’ overconfidence behavior at market-level data in BSE, India.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 November 2017

Houda Litimi

This paper aims to investigate the herding behavior in the French stock market and its effect on the idiosyncratic conditional volatility at a sectoral level.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the herding behavior in the French stock market and its effect on the idiosyncratic conditional volatility at a sectoral level.

Design/methodology/approach

This sample covers all the listed companies in the French stock market, classified by sector, over four major crisis periods. The author modifies the cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) model to include trading volume and investors sentiment as herding triggers. Furthermore, the author uses a modified GARCH model to investigate the effect of herding on conditional volatility.

Findings

Herding is present in the French market during crises, and it is present in only some sectors during the entire period. The main trigger for investors to embark into a collective herding movement differs from one sector to another. Furthermore, herding behavior has an inhibiting effect on market conditional volatility.

Originality/value

The author modifies the CSAD model to investigate the presence of herding in the French stock market at a sectoral level during turmoil periods. Furthermore, the particularly designed GARCH model provides new insights on the effect of herding and volume turnover on the conditional volatility.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 16 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 June 2010

M. Imtiaz Mazumder and Nazneen Ahmad

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the causes of the 2007‐2009 mortgage crisis, liquidity crisis, stock market volatility in the USA and their spillover effects on the…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the causes of the 2007‐2009 mortgage crisis, liquidity crisis, stock market volatility in the USA and their spillover effects on the global economy.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper critically reviews the 2007‐2009 financial crisis from both academic and practitioners' viewpoints.

Findings

The paper explores how the liquidity crisis has evolved with the advent of poorly supervised financial products, especially the credit default swaps and subprime mortgage loans. Further, it analyzes the laxity in regulations that encouraged high financial leverages, shadow banking system and excessive stock market volatility and worsened the recent financial crisis.

Originality/value

The implication of this paper is to understand numerous policy reforms that will help the global capital markets to be more transparent and less vulnerable to systematic risks; the suggested policy reforms may also help to prevent such financial calamities in the future.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 27 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 July 2021

Shahzad Hussain, Muhammad Akbar, Qaisar Ali Malik, Tanveer Ahmad and Nasir Abbas

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of corporate governance, investor sentiment and financial liberalization on downside systematic risk and the interplay of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of corporate governance, investor sentiment and financial liberalization on downside systematic risk and the interplay of socio-political turbulence on this relationship through static and dynamic panel estimation models.

Design/methodology/approach

The evidence is based on a sample of 230 publicly listed non-financial firms from Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) over the period 2008–2018. Furthermore, this study analyzes the data through Blundell and Bond (1998) technique in the full sample as well sub-samples (big and small firms).

Findings

The authors document that corporate governance mechanism reduces the downside risk, whereas investor sentiment and financial liberalization increase the investors’ exposure toward downside risk. Particularly, the results provide some new insights that the socio-political turbulence as a moderator weakens the impact of corporate governance and strengthens the effect of investor sentiment and financial liberalization on downside risk. Consistent with prior studies, the analysis of sub-samples reveals some statistical variations in large and small-size sampled firms. Theoretically, the findings mainly support agency theory, noise trader theory and the Keynesians hypothesis.

Originality/value

Stock market volatility has become a prime area of concern for investors, policymakers and regulators in emerging economies. Primarily, the existence of market volatility is attributed to weak governance, irrational behavior of market participants, the liberation of financial policies and sociopolitical turbulence. Therefore, the present study provides simultaneous empirical evidence to determine whether corporate governance, investor sentiment and financial liberalization hinder or spur downside risk in an emerging economy. Furthermore, the work relates to a small number of studies that examine the role of socio-political turbulence as a moderator on the relationship of corporate governance, investor sentiment and financial liberalization with downside systematic risk.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 January 2019

Swee-Sum Lam, Tao Li and Weina Zhang

The purpose of this paper is to reveal the economic impact of policy reversals related to market liberalization reforms in China.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to reveal the economic impact of policy reversals related to market liberalization reforms in China.

Design/methodology/approach

To perform the analysis, the authors hand-collect 59 financial market liberalization policy reversals from 1999 to 2017. These reversals are related to the liberalization of the stock market, bond market, derivatives market, forex market, lending market, and real estate market etc. The authors employ a stylized equilibrium interest rate model from Li et al. (2013) to deduce the impact of policy reversals on economic growth and the associated volatility after the announcement of each policy reversal.

Findings

First, the authors discover that about half of reversals are related to some tradeoff between the economic growth and the volatility associated with growth. Second, the authors also find that about a quarter of the reversals are detrimental to both the growth and the stability. These reversals, if known to policymakers, should be entirely avoided or corrected. Third, using a simple diagnostic test, the authors can identify detrimental reversals at the intra-day frequency by computing the change of the term spread and the volatility before and after the reversals.

Practical implications

The findings are useful for identifying effective policymaking in developing countries where mature democratic and rigorous policymaking processes are often lacking and formulating economic policies is challenging. The findings suggest that policy reversals serve China well by improving the quality of the policy made without posing destructive consequences to the existing economic infrastructure. This empirical evidence is important for a better understanding of the benefits of policy reversals on economic growth.

Social implications

The empirical procedure provides a timely and objective evaluation of policy shifts, allowing for the general public to discern the rationale behind the policy decisions. Consequently, stakeholders’ trust and confidence in policymakers is enhanced so that the probability of the successful implementation of structural reforms may increase in these developing countries.

Originality/value

First, the results reveal some successful examples of Chinese policymaking in the path of liberalizing financial market. The authors find that the Chinese liberalization policy flip-flops have resulted in a more balanced growth on some occasions with reduced growth rate and volatility. Second, the proposed methodology provides an objective evaluation of policy shifts, allowing for the public to infer the general direction of the impact generated by policy shifts. Subsequently, stakeholders’ trust and confidence in policymakers can be enhanced and/or restored if the process of finding a successful path of structural reforms is unambiguous. Finally, the interest rate model also provides a timely method to evaluate the impact of policy shifts at an intra-day frequency, whereas most macroeconomic indicators are available at longer frequencies such as monthly or quarterly. The timeliness in understanding the economic consequences of policy reversals can be critical to prevent the destructive consequences of bad ones.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 July 2020

Chrysanthi Balomenou, Vassilios Babalos, Dimitrios Vortelinos and Athanasios Koulakiotis

Motivated by recent evidence that securitized real estate returns exhibit higher levels of predictability than stock market returns and that feedback trading (FT) can induce…

Abstract

Purpose

Motivated by recent evidence that securitized real estate returns exhibit higher levels of predictability than stock market returns and that feedback trading (FT) can induce returns autocorrelation and market volatility, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of FT strategies on long-term market volatility of eight international real estate markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Australia, Japan and Hong Kong).

Design/methodology/approach

Assuming that the return autocorrelation may vary over time and the impact of positive feedback trading (PFT) or negative feedback trading (NFT) could be a function of return volatility, the authors use a combination of a FT model and a fractionally integrated Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model.

Findings

The results are mixed, revealing that both PFT and NFT strategies persist. Specifically, the authors detect PFT in the real estate markets of France, Hong Kong and Italy as opposed to the real estate markets of Australia, Germany, Japan and Sweden where NFT was present. A noteworthy exception is the UK real estate market, with important and rational FT strategies to sustain. With respect to the long-term volatility persistence, this seems to capture the mean reversion of real estate returns in the UK and Hong Kong markets. In general, the results are not consistent with those reported in previous studies because NFT dominates PFT in the majority of real estate markets under consideration.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this study is the investigation of the link between short-term PFT or NFT and long-term volatility in eight international real estate markets, symmetrically. Particular attention has been given to the link between short-term FT and long-term volatility, by means of a fractionally integrated GARCH approach, a symmetric one. Moreover, investigating the relationship between returns’ volatility and investors’ strategies based on FT entails significant implications because real estate assets offer a good alternative investment for many investors and speculators.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 May 2022

Nagihan Kılıç, Burhan Uluyol and Kabir Hassan

The aim of this study is to measure portfolio diversification benefits of the Turkey-based equity investors into top trading partner countries. Portfolio diversification benefits…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study is to measure portfolio diversification benefits of the Turkey-based equity investors into top trading partner countries. Portfolio diversification benefits are analyzed from the viewpoint of two types of investors in Turkey: conventional equities investors and Islamic equity investors.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to evaluate the time-varying correlations of the trading partner country's stock index returns with the Turkish stock index returns, the multivariate-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity–dynamic conditional correlation (GARCH-DCC) is applied based on daily data covering 13 years' period between January 22, 2008 and January 22, 2021.

Findings

The results revealed that the US stock indices provide the most diversified benefit for both conventional and Islamic Turkey-based equity investors. In general, Islamic indices exhibit relatively lower correlation with trading partners than conventional indices. Turkey and Russia are recorded as the most volatile indices.

Originality/value

The diversification potential in trading partners for Turkey-based Islamic equity investors has not been studied yet. This study is to fill in this gap in the literature and to give fruitful insights to both conventional and Islamic investors.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2054-6238

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2022

Ghulame Rubbaniy, Ali Awais Khalid, Abiot Tessema and Abdelrahman Baqrain

The purpose of the paper is to investigate co-movement of major implied volatility indices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices with both the health-based fear index and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to investigate co-movement of major implied volatility indices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices with both the health-based fear index and market-based fear index of COVID-19 for the USA and the UK to help investors and portfolio managers in their informed investment decisions during times of infectious disease spread.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses wavelet coherence approach because it allows to observe lead–lag nonlinear relationship between two time-series variables and captures the heterogeneous perceptions of investors across time and frequency. The daily data used in this study about the USA and the UK covers major implied volatility indices, EPU, health-based fear index and market-based fear index of COVID-19 for both the first and second waves of COVID-19 pandemic over the period from March 3, 2020 to February 12, 2021.

Findings

The results document a strong positive co-movement between implied volatility indices and two proxies of the COVID-19 fear. However, in all the cases, the infectious disease equity market volatility index (IDEMVI), the COVID-19 proxy, is more representative of the stock market and exhibits a stronger positive co-movement with volatility indices than the COVID-19 fear index (C19FI). This study also finds that the UK’s implied volatility index weakly co-moves with the C19FI compared to the USA. The results show that EPU indices of both the USA and the UK exhibit a weak or no correlation with the C19FI. However, this study finds a significant and positive co-movement of EPU indices with IDEMVI over the short horizon and most of the sampling period with the leading effect of IDEMVI. This study’s robustness analysis using partial wavelet coherence provides further strengths to the findings.

Research limitations/implications

The investment decisions and risk management of investors and portfolio managers in financial markets are affected by the new information on volatility and EPU. The findings provide insights to equity investors and portfolio managers to improve their risk management practices by incorporating how health-related risks such as COVID-19 pandemic can contribute to the market volatility and economic risks. The results are beneficial for long-term equity investors, as their investments are affected by contributing factors to the volatility in US and UK’s stock markets.

Originality/value

This study adds following promising values to the existing literature. First, the results complement the existing literature (Rubbaniy et al., 2021c) in documenting that type of COVID-19 proxy matters in explaining the volatility (EPU) relationships in financial markets, where market perceived fear of COVID-19 is appeared to be more pronounced than health-based fear of COVID-19. Second, the use of wavelet coherence approach allows us to observe lead–lag relationship between the selected variables, which captures the heterogeneous perceptions of investors across time and frequency and have important insights for the investors and portfolio managers. Finally, this study uses the improved data of COVID-19, stock market volatility and EPU compared to the existing studies (Sharif et al., 2020), which are too early to capture the effects of exponential spread of COVID-19 in the USA and the UK after March 2020.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 40 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 June 2021

Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker and Abdollah Ah Mand

The volatility of bitcoin (BTC) and time horizon is the center point for investment decisions. However, attention is not often drawn to the relationship between BTC and equity…

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Abstract

The volatility of bitcoin (BTC) and time horizon is the center point for investment decisions. However, attention is not often drawn to the relationship between BTC and equity indices. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility and time frequency domain of BTC with stock markets.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 29 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

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