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One of the major challenges for any project is to prepare and develop an achievable baseline schedule and thus set the project up for success, rather than failure. The purpose of this paper is to explore and investigate research outputs in one of the major causes, optimism bias, to identify problems with developing baseline schedules and analyse mitigation techniques and their effectiveness recommended by research to minimise the impact of this bias.

A systematic quantitative literature review was followed, examining Project Management Journals, documenting the mitigation approaches recommended and then reviewing whether these approaches were validated by research.

Optimism bias proved to be widely accepted as a major cause of unrealistic scheduling for projects, and there is a common understanding as to what it is and the effects that it has on original baseline schedules. Based upon this review, the most recommended mitigation method is Flyvbjerg’s “Reference class,” which has been developed based upon Kahneman’s “Outside View”. Both of these mitigation techniques are based upon using an independent third party to review the estimate. However, within the papers reviewed, apart from the engineering projects, there has been no experimental and statistically validated research into the effectiveness of this method. The majority of authors who have published on this topic are based in Europe.

The short-listed papers for this review referred mainly to non-engineering projects which included information technology focussed ones. Thus, on one hand, empirical research is needed for engineering projects, while on the other hand, the lack of tangible evidence for the effectiveness of methods related to the alleviation of optimism bias issues calls for greater research into the effectiveness of mitigation techniques for not only engineering projects, but for all projects.

This paper documents the growth within the project management research literature over time on the topic of optimism bias. Specifically, it documents the various methods recommended to mitigate the phenomenon and highlights quantitatively the research undertaken on the subject. Moreover, it introduces paths for further research.

Electronic waste (e-waste) such as discarded computers and smartphones may contain large amounts of confidential data. Improper handling of remaining information in e-waste can, therefore, drive information security risk. This risk, however, is not always properly assessed and managed. The authors take the protection motivation theory (PMT) lens of analysis to understand intentions to protect one's discarded electronic assets.

By applying structural equation modeling, the authors empirically tested the proposed model with survey data from 348 e-waste handling users.

Results highlight that (1) protection intention is influenced by the perceived threat of discarding untreated e-waste (a threat appraisal) and self-efficacy to treat the discarded e-waste (a coping appraisal) and (2) optimism bias plays a dual-role in a direct and moderating way to reduce the perceived threat of untreated e-waste and its effect on protection intentions.

Results support the assertions and portray a unique theoretical account of the processes that underline people's motivation to protect their data when discarding e-waste. As such, this study explains a relatively understudied information security risk behavior in the e-waste context, points to the role of optimism bias in such decisions and highlights potential interventions that can help to alleviate this information security risk behavior.

The purpose of this paper is to capture the presence and impact of optimism in the Indian equity market.

The data set comprises the daily values of the Nifty 50 index, index options and Treasury-bill index for a period of five years (2006-2011). The focus of this paper is two pronged. It first investigates the presence of optimism (pessimism) using the pricing kernel technique suggested by Barone-Adesi et al. (2012). Second, it tries to analyze the relationship of this bias with stock market indicators like risk premium, market return and volatility using time series regression.

The findings indicate that the Indian equity market has been predominantly pessimistic from the period 2006 to 2011. The interaction of this bias with market indicators also unveils some interesting insights. The study shows that high past volatility can lead to pessimism in the Indian equity market and vice versa. It further explores that when the investors are rational, their risk and return relationship is positive while it tends to be negative when they are irrational. The impact of investors’ irrationalities on asset valuation has also been accounted by Brown and Cliff (2005).

The findings of the paper have significant implications for fund managers and asset management companies. It is recommended that they should try to identify behavioral biases in their clients before designing their portfolios.

This study is one of the very few attempts to capture the presence and impact optimism (pessimism) in the Indian equity market.

The purpose of this study is to address a critical gap in enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementation process for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by acknowledging and countering cognitive biases through a cognitive bias awareness matrix model. Cognitive biases such as temporal discounting and optimism bias often skew decision-making, leading SMEs to prioritize short-term benefits over long-term sustainability or underestimate the challenges involved in ERP implementation. These biases can result in costly missteps, underutilizing ERP systems and project failure. This study enhances decision-making processes in ERP adoption by introducing a matrix that allows SMEs to self-assess their level of awareness and proactivity when addressing cognitive biases in decision-making.

The design and methodology of this research involves a structured approach using the problem-intervention-comparison-outcome-context (PICOC) framework to systematically explore the influence of cognitive biases on ERP decision-making in SMEs. The study integrates a comprehensive literature review, empirical data analysis and case studies to develop the Cognitive Bias Awareness Matrix. This matrix enables SMEs to self-assess their susceptibility to biases like temporal discounting and optimism bias, promoting proactive strategies for more informed ERP decision-making. The approach is designed to enhance SMEs’ awareness and management of cognitive biases, aiming to improve ERP implementation success rates and operational efficiency.

The findings underscore the profound impact of cognitive biases and information asymmetry on ERP system selection and implementation in SMEs. Temporal discounting often leads decision-makers to favor immediate cost-saving solutions, potentially resulting in higher long-term expenses due to the lack of scalability. Optimism bias tends to cause underestimating risks and overestimating benefits, leading to insufficient planning and resource allocation. Furthermore, information asymmetry between ERP vendors and SME decision-makers exacerbates these biases, steering choices toward options that may not fully align with the SME’s long-term interests.

The study’s primary limitation is its concentrated focus on temporal discounting and optimism bias, potentially overlooking other cognitive biases that could impact ERP decision-making in SMEs. The PICOC framework, while structuring the research effectively, may restrict the exploration of broader organizational and technological factors influencing ERP success. Future research should expand the range of cognitive biases and explore additional variables within the ERP implementation process. Incorporating a broader array of behavioral economic principles and conducting longitudinal studies could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges and dynamics in ERP adoption and utilization in SMEs.

The practical implications of this study are significant for SMEs implementing ERP systems. By adopting the Cognitive Bias Awareness Matrix, SMEs can identify and mitigate cognitive biases like temporal discounting and optimism bias, leading to more rational and effective decision-making. This tool enables SMEs to shift focus from short-term gains to long-term strategic benefits, improving ERP system selection, implementation and utilization. Regular use of the matrix can help prevent costly implementation errors and enhance operational efficiency. Additionally, training programs designed around the matrix can equip SME personnel with the skills to recognize and address biases, fostering a culture of informed decision-making.

The study underscores significant social implications by enhancing decision-making within SMEs through cognitive bias awareness. By mitigating biases like temporal discounting and optimism bias, SMEs can make more socially responsible decisions, aligning their business practices with long-term sustainability and ethical standards. This shift improves operational outcomes and promotes a culture of accountability and transparency. The widespread adoption of the Cognitive Bias Awareness Matrix can lead to a more ethical business environment, where decisions are made with a deeper understanding of their long-term impacts on employees, customers and the broader community, fostering trust and sustainability in the business ecosystem.

This research introduces the original concept of the Cognitive Bias Awareness Matrix, a novel tool designed specifically for SMEs to evaluate and mitigate cognitive biases in ERP decision-making. This matrix fills a critical gap in the existing literature by providing a structured, actionable framework that effectively empowers SMEs to recognize and address biases such as temporal discounting and optimism bias. Its practical application promises to enhance decision-making processes and increase the success rates of ERP implementations. This contribution is valuable to behavioral economics and information systems, offering a unique approach to integrating cognitive insights into business technology strategies.

This paper aims to analyze how judgment bias (optimism vs pessimism) and temporal distance influence self-control decisions. This research also analyzes the mediating role of perceived control on judgment bias and temporal distance.

Three studies (one laboratory and two online experiments) analyze how judgment bias and temporal distance influence self-control decisions on consumers’ willingness to pay.

The findings uncover an important boundary condition of temporal distance on self-control decisions. In contrast to previous research, the findings indicate that individuals exposed to optimism (vs pessimism) bias display more self-control in the future and make choices that are more indulgent in the present. The findings also reveal that perceived control mediates the effects of judgment bias and temporal distance.

The findings help managers to adapt short- and long-term marketing efforts, based on consumers’ momentary judgment biases and on their chronic judgment bias orientation.

This research contributes to the literature on self-control and temporal distance, showing that judgment bias reverses previous research findings on self-control decisions.

Researchers looking for ways to change the insecure behaviour that results in phishing have considered multiple possible reasons for such behaviour. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to understand the role of optimism bias (OB – defined as a cognitive bias), which characterises overly optimistic or unrealistic individuals, to ensure secure behaviour. Research that focused on issues such as personality traits, trust, attitude and Security, Education, Training and Awareness (SETA) was considered.

This study built on a recontextualized version of the theory of planned behaviour to evaluate the influence that optimism bias has on phishing susceptibility. To model the data, an analysis was performed on 226 survey responses from a South African financial services organisation using partial least squares (PLS) path modelling.

This study found that overly optimistic employees were inclined to behave insecurely, while factors such as attitude and trust significantly influenced the intention to behave securely.

Our contribution to practice seeks to enhance the effectiveness of SETA by identifying and addressing the optimism bias weakness to deliver a more successful training outcome.

Our study enriches the Information Systems literature by evaluating the effect of a cognitive bias on phishing susceptibility and offers a contextual explanation of the resultant behaviour.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence the behavioral biases in Indian investors specifically, overconfidence, excessive optimism (pessimism), herd behavior and the disposition effect. It further investigates the role of demographics and investor sophistication in influencing the biases. Finally, it reveals which bias is most prevalent in the Indian context.

For this purpose, a survey has been conducted on the investors of the Delhi/NCR area. The data have been collected with the help of a structured questionnaire that is analyzed with the help of relevant statistical tools.

The survey evidence shows that behavioral biases are dependent on investors’ demographics and their trading sophistication with highest influencing factors being age, profession and trading frequency. Each bias corresponds to a specific set of investor characteristics and overconfidence comes out to be the most important bias in the Indian context.

The potential limitations of the present survey can be ascribed to socially desirable responses and their difference with actual market behavior. Further, due to time and resource constraint, the data set is limited to investors of only Delhi/NCR.

This study is most relevant for financial advisors, as it facilitates them in gaining a better understanding of their clients’ psychology. It can aid them in developing behaviorally modified portfolio, which best suits their clients’ predisposition.

The paper gives a unique insight on the investors’ profile corresponding to each bias under consideration. It not only updates the evidence on behavioral biases but also highlights which bias is the most influential in the Indian context.

This paper aims to document the impact of Ramadan on the optimism of analysts’ recommendations taking as a sample the countries of the MENA region during the period between 2004 and 2015. The choice of these countries can be explained by the fact that their population is predominantly of a Muslim faith (The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050, 2015).

The authors used univariate and multivariate regression models to highlight the existence of the Ramadan effect on the optimism of analysts. They have found that pre-holiday optimism is significantly lower than post-holiday optimism.

This paper also documented the effect of analysts’ experience and information uncertainty on the analysts’ optimism level that allowed us to infer that low experience enhances optimism, while environment with low information uncertainty tends to decrease the level of optimism.

Previous research on this topic has investigated the effect of months of the year, turns of the month and days-of-the-week on the behavior of stock exchanges. Another strand of the literature also analyzed the effect of holidays on the latter. However, this is the first attempt to investigate this effect on analysts’ recommendations optimism when the holiday period is related to Islam.

This paper aims to identify psychological factors that influence people to be involved in Ponzi and pyramid schemes.

A psychological approach to finance or behavioural finance is applied in this research because of the assumption that human beings are not always rational. The sample consisted of 98 investors in 11 cities in Indonesia who were or had invested in an investment program with a Ponzi or pyramid scheme. The snowball sampling technique was applied.

The conclusion is that optimism (emotional bias), confirmation bias, representativeness bias, framing bias and overconfidence (cognitive bias) positively influenced investment decisions related to Ponzi and pyramid schemes.

The novelty aspect of this research is the implementation of a behavioural finance perspective to answer and express the fascinating phenomenon of Ponzi and pyramid investment schemes.

This study examined potential sport tourists’ decision-making regarding a sporting event rescheduled due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

An extended model of goal-directed behavior – encompassing the perception of COVID-19, attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, positive anticipated emotion, negative anticipated emotion, desire and behavioral intention – was built and tested using survey data and structural equation modeling.

The perception of COVID-19 significantly influenced attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and positive anticipated emotion, which then collectively led to desire. Desire, alongside optimism bias, had a substantial impact on behavioral intention. However, the perception of COVID-19 was not related to negative anticipated emotion.

The findings highlight the roles that optimism bias and the perception of COVID-19 play in shaping individuals’ intentions to engage in sport tourism, suggesting how marketers and managers of sporting events should respond to the pandemic.