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1 – 10 of over 1000Aiza Shabbir, Shazia Kousar and Syeda Azra Batool
The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the data on gold prices, stock exchange and oil prices for the period 1991–2016. This study applied descriptive statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation and autoregressive distributed lag test.
Findings
The data analysis results showed that gold and oil prices have a significant impact on the stock market.
Research limitations/implications
Following empirical evidence of this study, the authors recommend that investors should invest in gold because the main reason is that hike in inflation reduces the real value of money, and people seek to invest in alternative investment avenues like gold to preserve the value of their assets and earn additional returns. This suggests that investment in gold can be used as a tool to decline inflation pressure to a sustainable level. This study was restricted to use small sample data owing to the availability of data from 1991 to 2017 and could not use structural break unit root tests with two structural break and structural break cointegration approach, as these tests require high-frequency data set.
Originality/value
This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in gold, oil and stock market. In the current era, gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day, and investors think that stock returns may or may not be affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focusses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help investment institutions or portfolio managers.
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Mongi Arfaoui and Aymen Ben Rejeb
The purpose of this paper is to examine, in a global perspective, the oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices interdependencies and to identify instantaneously direct and indirect…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine, in a global perspective, the oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices interdependencies and to identify instantaneously direct and indirect linkages among them.
Design/methodology/approach
A methodology based on simultaneous equations system was used to identify direct and indirect linkages for the period 1995-2015. The authors try initially to find theoretical answers to main question of the study by discussing causal bilateral relationships while focusing on multilateral interactions.
Findings
The results show significant interactions between all markets. The authors found a negative relation between oil and stock prices but oil price is significantly and positively affected by gold and USD. Oil price is also affected by oil futures prices and by Chinese oil gross imports. Gold rate is concerned by changes in oil, USD and stock markets. The US dollar is negatively affected by stock market and significantly by oil and gold price. Indirect effects always exist which confirm the presence of global interdependencies and involve the financialization process of commodity markets.
Originality/value
Motivation of this research paper is the substantial implications of price movements on real economy and financial markets. Understanding that co-movement has great value for investors, policy makers and portfolio managers. This paper differs from previous studies in several aspects. First, most of the research papers focus on bilateral linkages solely, while the authors’ investigation was implemented on all the four markets simultaneously. Second, the study was developed in a global framework using international data. The global analysis allows avoiding country specific effects.
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The article analyzes how oil price fluctuations are reflected in the management of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) based on its balance sheet (BS) and particularly how oil price…
Abstract
Purpose
The article analyzes how oil price fluctuations are reflected in the management of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) based on its balance sheet (BS) and particularly how oil price fluctuations affect Pemex's corporate income.
Design/methodology/approach
The author uses a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model with seven variables for the period 1977–2019. The first variable is the oil price and the others belong to Pemex's BS: total income, sales revenue, operating costs, investment, payment of taxes, duties and contributions (TDC) and the payment of interest on debt.
Findings
The results show that in an environment of elevated fiscal burden that is of an excessive payment of tax by Pemex to the state, the price increases positively affected the income obtained from sales, but that surplus is used primarily to finance the fiscal expenses coming from the TDC, which is associated with the production and commercialization of hydrocarbons; physical and financial investment is disconnected from the evolution of price. Under a fiscal scheme that extracts, on average, 98.46% of Pemex's income, investment is not a priority.
Practical implications
The findings of the research have important implications for Mexico's energy policy because of affecting the long-term financial and productive sustainability of Pemex.
Originality/value
First, the study contributes to the literature on oil prices in Mexico by analyzing Pemex's fiscal burden from a corporate finance perspective, an area in which there are few rigorous studies. Second, the study contributes by providing quantitative support for the relationship between oil prices and BS variables through the VAR model.
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The purpose of this paper is to study the efficiency of different oil and gas markets. Most previous studies examined the issue using low frequency date sampled at monthly…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study the efficiency of different oil and gas markets. Most previous studies examined the issue using low frequency date sampled at monthly, weekly, or daily frequencies. In this study, 30-minute intraday data are used to explore efficiency in energy markets.
Design/methodology/approach
Sophisticated statistical analysis techniques such as Granger-causality regressions, augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, cointegration tests, vector autoregressions are used to explore the transmission of information between oil and gas energy markets.
Findings
This study provides evidence for efficiency in energy markets. The new information that arrives either to futures markets or spot markets is digested correctly, completely, and in a fast manner, and is propagated to the other market. The evidence indicates high efficiency.
Originality/value
This study is one of the first papers that uses 30-minute interval intraday data to investigate efficiency in oil and gas commodity markets.
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Hanan Naser, Fatima Al-aali, Yomna Abdulla and Rabab Ebrahim
Over the last decade, investments in green energy companies have witnessed noticeable growth rates. However, the glacial pace of the world economic restoration due to COVID-19…
Abstract
Purpose
Over the last decade, investments in green energy companies have witnessed noticeable growth rates. However, the glacial pace of the world economic restoration due to COVID-19 pandemic placed a high degree of uncertainty over this market. Therefore, this study investigates the short- and long-term relationships between COVID-19 new cases and WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index (NEX) using daily data over the period from January 23, 2020 to February 1, 2023.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors utilize an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing estimation technique.
Findings
The results show a significant positive impact of COVID-19 new cases on the returns of NEX index in the short run, whereas it has a significant negative impact in the long run. It is also found that the S&P Global Clean Energy Index has a significant positive impact on the returns of NEX index. Although oil has an influential effect on stock returns, the results show insignificant impact.
Practical implications
Governments have the chance to flip this trend by including investment in green energy in their economic growth stimulation policies. Governments should highlight the fundamental advantages of investing in this type of energy such as creating job vacancies while reducing emissions and promoting innovation.
Originality/value
First, as far as the authors are aware, the authors are the first to examine the effect of oil prices on clean energy stocks during COVID-19. Second, the authors contribute to studies on the relationship between oil prices and renewable energy. Third, the authors add to the emerging strand of literature on the impact of COVID-19 on various sectors of the economy. Fourth, the findings of the paper can add to the growing literature on sustainable development goals, in specific the papers related to energy sustainability.
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The purpose of this paper is to explore and analyse the dynamic relationship between remittances inflows of Egyptians working abroad and asymmetric oil price shocks.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore and analyse the dynamic relationship between remittances inflows of Egyptians working abroad and asymmetric oil price shocks.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to explain the impulse response functions (IRFs) and the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The rationale behind using these tools is its ability to examine the dynamic effects of our variables of interest.
Findings
The impulse response functions confirmed that remittance inflows have various responses to asymmetric oil price shocks. For instance, inflowing remittances increase in response to positive oil price shocks, while it decreases in response to negative oil price shocks. Also, the results indicate that the responses are significant in the short and medium-run and insignificant in the long run. The magnitude of these responses reaches its peak or trough in the third year. Further, the variance decomposition reveals that oil price decreases are more influential than oil price increases.
Originality/value
This means that remittances inflows in Egypt are pro-cyclical with oil price shocks. That explained by the fact that more than one-half of those remittances sent from GCC countries where real economic growth is very pro-cyclical with the oil prices. This empirical assessment will help policymakers to determine the behaviour of remittances and highlights the impact of different kinds of oil prices shocks on remittances. Unlike the little existing literature, this study is the first study applied the VAR model using a novel dataset spanning 1960-2016.
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Dejan Živkov and Jasmina Đurašković
This paper aims to investigate how oil price uncertainty affects real gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production in eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC).
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate how oil price uncertainty affects real gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production in eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC).
Design/methodology/approach
In the research process, the authors use the Bayesian method of inference for the two applied methodologies – Markov switching generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and quantile regression.
Findings
The results clearly indicate that oil price uncertainty has a low effect on output in moderate market conditions in the selected countries. On the other hand, in the phases of contraction and expansion, which are portrayed by the tail quantiles, the authors find negative and positive Bayesian quantile parameters, which are relatively high in magnitude. This implies that in periods of deep economic crises, an increase in the oil price uncertainty reduces output, amplifying in this way recession pressures in the economy. Contrary, when the economy is in expansion, oil price uncertainty has no influence on the output. The probable reason lies in the fact that the negative effect of oil volatility is not strong enough in the expansion phase to overpower all other positive developments which characterize a growing economy. Also, evidence suggests that increased oil uncertainty has a more negative effect on industrial production than on real GDP, whereas industrial share in GDP plays an important role in how strong some CEECs are impacted by oil uncertainty.
Originality/value
This paper is the first one that investigates the spillover effect from oil uncertainty to output in CEEC.
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Megha Agarwalla, Tarak Nath Sahu and Shib Sankar Jana
This study aims to establish the dynamic relationship between international crude oil prices and Indian stock prices represented by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) energy index.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to establish the dynamic relationship between international crude oil prices and Indian stock prices represented by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) energy index.
Design/methodology/approach
Using Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction (VEC) model, impulse response function and variance decomposition test the study tries to ascertain the short-term and long-term dynamic association between the oil price shock and the movement of stock price and Granger causality test is applied to find out the nature of causality.
Findings
Considering vector autoregression estimation, the present study analyzes the relationship between the variables and tries to make a valid conclusion. The result of the co-integration test exhibits the presence of a long-term association between these two macro-economic variables during the period under study. Also, in the short-run VEC Granger causality result reveals that the movement of international crude oil price significantly influences the Indian stock price.
Research limitations/implications
To get a more robust result the study can be further extended by taking a longer time period with data of shorter time-frequency such as daily or weekly and further by using more sophisticated econometric and statistical tools. Further, the study can be extended to firm-level investigation considering the forward trading concentration with the Indian oil basket.
Social implications
In today’s globalized era, forecasting of share price movement helps investors in predicting the market and invest accordingly. Through this liquidity of the markets enhance and markets become more active in the global arena.
Originality/value
This study represents fresh findings in the changing time period the linkage between crude oil prices and stock prices which are of value to the academicians, researchers, policymakers, investors, market regulators, etc.
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Shekhar Mishra and Sathya Swaroop Debasish
This study aims to explore the linkage between fluctuations in the global crude oil price and equity market in fast emerging economies of India and China.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore the linkage between fluctuations in the global crude oil price and equity market in fast emerging economies of India and China.
Design/methodology/approach
The present research uses wavelet decomposition and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT), which decompose the time series into various frequencies of short, medium and long-term nature. The paper further uses continuous and cross wavelet transform to analyze the variance among the variables and wavelet coherence analysis and wavelet-based Granger causality analysis to examine the direction of causality between the variables.
Findings
The continuous wavelet transform indicates strong variance in WTIR (return series of West Texas Instrument crude oil price) in short, medium and long run at various time periods. The variance in CNX Nifty is observed in the short and medium run at various time periods. The Chinese stock index, i.e. SCIR, experiences very little variance in short run and significant variance in the long and medium run. The causality between the changes in crude oil price and CNX Nifty is insignificant and there exists a bi-directional causality between global crude oil price fluctuations and the Chinese equity market.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, very limited work has been done where the researchers have analyzed the linkage between the equity market and crude oil price fluctuations under the framework of discrete wavelet transform, which overlooks the bottleneck of non-stationarity nature of the time series. To bridge this gap, the present research uses wavelet decomposition and MODWT, which decompose the time series into various frequencies of short, medium and long-term nature.
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Might the impact of the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and the long-term bond yields on oil prices be asymmetric? This paper aims to consider the effects of the GEPU…
Abstract
Purpose
Might the impact of the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and the long-term bond yields on oil prices be asymmetric? This paper aims to consider the effects of the GEPU and the US long-term government bond yields on oil prices using quantile-based analysis and nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) model. The author hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the GEPU and the long-term bond yields of the USA have different effects on oil prices.
Design/methodology/approach
To address this question, the author uses quantile cointegration model and the impulse response functions (IRFs) of the censored variable approach of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011).
Findings
The quantile cointegration test showed the existence of non-linear cointegration relationship, whereas Granger-causality analysis revealed that positive/negative variations in GEPU will have opposite effects on oil prices. This result was supported by the quantile regression model’s coefficients and nonlinear VAR model’s IRFs; more specifically, it was stressed that increasing/decreasing GEPU will deaccelerate/accelerate global economic activity and thus lead to a fall/rise in oil prices. On the other hand, the empirical models indicated that the impact of US 10-year government bond yields on oil prices is asymmetrical, while it was found that deterioration in the borrowing conditions in the USA may have an impact on oil prices by slowing down the global economic activity.
Originality/value
As a robustness check of the quantile-based analysis results, the slope-based Mork test is used.
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