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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2006

Ahmed A. El‐Masry

Financial theory predicts that a change in an exchange rate should affect the value of a firm or an industry. To a large extent, past research has not supported this theory, which…

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Abstract

Purpose

Financial theory predicts that a change in an exchange rate should affect the value of a firm or an industry. To a large extent, past research has not supported this theory, which is surprising especially after considering the substantial exchange rate fluctuations over the three decades. This study seeks to extend previous research on the foreign exchange rate exposure of UK nonfinancial companies at the industry level over the period 1981‐2001.

Design/approach/methodology

In this study, exchange rate exposure is defined as the change in the value of the firm or industry due to the changes in exchange rates. This study differs from previous studies in that it considers the impact of the changes (actual and unexpected) in exchange rates on firms’ or industries’ stock returns. The approach employs OLS model to estimate foreign exchange rate exposure of 364 UK nonfinancial companies over the period 1981‐2001. All data are collected from the Datastream database.

Findings

The findings indicate that a higher percentage of UK industries are exposed to contemporaneous exchange rate changes than those reported in previous studies. There is also evidence of significant lagged exchange rate exposure. This lagged exchange rate exposure is consistent with findings in previous studies that may exist some market inefficiencies in incorporating exchange rate changes into the returns of firms and industries.

Research limitations/implications

Future research in the area should consider additional factors that might affect a firm's and an industry's exposure to exchange rate changes.

Practical implications

The findings of the study have interesting implications for public policy makers who wish to understand links between policies that affect exchange rates and relative wealth affects. These findings should also be of particular importance to investors who under or overweight large multinational corporations.

Originality/value

The study extends previous research on foreign exchange rate exposure of UK companies.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 32 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2013

Christopher E.S. Warburton

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of the trade‐weighted US dollar from 1973 to 2011 as a result of monetary policy.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of the trade‐weighted US dollar from 1973 to 2011 as a result of monetary policy.

Design/methodology/approach

Relevant time series variables – the money supply, the federal funds rate, general financial conditions, national income and interest rate spread are used to investigate the impact of shocks on the US trade‐weighted dollar and to explain the predictive power the variables hold over the weighted dollar. This is accomplished by using the conventional procedures of variance decomposition and Granger causality tests.

Findings

The paper finds that unexpected changes in national financial conditions, the federal funds rate and the velocity of money account for more variation in the performance of the trade‐weighted US dollar than do surprises associated with the interest rate spread (the variable that tracks quantitative easing (QE), quantitative contraction (QC) and neutrality).

Practical implications

This article is unique in adding to the literary discourse by incorporating international trade and other national conditions as key indicators of the long‐term value of a trade‐weighted currency and its propensity to increase national income. It provides an opportunity for further analysis of the role of QE in currency valuation when the short‐term interest rate becomes an inadequate monetary policy instrument for economic stabilization and determining the value of a currency.

Originality/value

The paper argues that the velocity of money has strong predictive power over the performance of the trade‐weighted dollar and that monetary policy can help to predict changes in the financial and real sectors, but not the value of the trade‐weighted dollar directly or in isolation. This is partly because the monetary policy transmission mechanism and external prices are also relevant to the weighted value of the currency over an extended period of time.

Article
Publication date: 7 August 2007

Ahmed El‐Masry, Omneya Abdel‐Salam and Amr Alatraby

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate exposure of UK non‐financial companies from January 1981 to December 2001.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate exposure of UK non‐financial companies from January 1981 to December 2001.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs different exchange rate measures and adopts an equally weighted exchange rate. The analyses are conducted at the firm level. All analyses are conducted by regressing the firm's exchange rate exposure coefficients on its size, foreign activity variables and financial hedging proxies over the whole sample period.

Findings

The findings show that a higher percentage of UK non‐financial companies are exposed to exchange rate changes than those reported in previous studies. Generally, the results provide a stronger support for the suggested equally weighted rate as an economic variable, which affects firms’ stock returns. The results also show a high proportion of positive exposure coefficients among firms with significant exchange rate exposure, indicating a higher proportion of firms benefiting from an appreciation of the pound. Finally, the results also indicate evidence that firms’ foreign operations and hedging variables affect their sensitivity to exchange rate exposure.

Practical implications

This study provides important implications for public policymakers who wish to understand links between policies that affect exchange rates and relative wealth effects.

Originality/value

The empirical results of this study should help investors to examine how common stock returns react to exchange rate fluctuations when making financial decisions, and prove useful for financial managers when measuring exposure to foreign exchange rate changes.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 33 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 December 2020

Titus Ayobami Ojeyinka and Dauda Olalekan Yinusa

The study investigates the impact of external shocks on output composition (consumption and investment) in Nigeria for the period 1981:Q1– 2018:Q4. Trade-weighted variables from…

Abstract

Purpose

The study investigates the impact of external shocks on output composition (consumption and investment) in Nigeria for the period 1981:Q1– 2018:Q4. Trade-weighted variables from the country's five major trading partners are constructed to capture the impact.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs a block exogeneity open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis in studying the stated relationship.

Findings

The study reveals that external shocks significantly affect consumption and investment in Nigeria. Results from the structural impulse response function suggest that foreign output, real effective exchange rate and foreign interest rate have significant negative effects on consumption and investment. Specifically, results from error variance decomposition show that foreign inflation and real effective exchange rate shocks are major drivers of fluctuations in consumption and investment in Nigeria. Interestingly, the study finds that oil price shock accounts for minor variations in consumption and investment in Nigeria.

Research limitations/implications

The findings suggest that consumption and investment in Nigeria are substantially and largely driven by external shocks.

Practical implications

There is need for the monetary authority and the Nigerian government to design appropriate policies to stabilise the naira and salvage the country's exchange rate from unexpected large swings so as to reduce the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks.

Originality/value

Previous studies on external shocks have concentrated on the impact of external shocks on aggregate variables such as output and inflation, while few studies on external shocks in Nigeria capture external shocks through single-country data. This study differs from previous similar studies in Nigeria in two ways. First, the study examines the impact of external shocks on output composition such as consumption and investment. Second, the study captures the impact of external shocks on the two components of gross domestic product (GDP) by constructing trade-weighted variables from Nigeria's five major trading partners.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 January 2006

Patrick J. Schena

This paper explores the sensitivity of Chinese stock returns to changes in trade-weighted indexes of the renminbi (RMB) and the currencies of China's trading partners from 1999 to…

Abstract

This paper explores the sensitivity of Chinese stock returns to changes in trade-weighted indexes of the renminbi (RMB) and the currencies of China's trading partners from 1999 to 2003. It analyses this exposure elasticity cross-sectionally using accounting variables to proxy for size and costs of financial distress. It finds that internationally oriented Chinese companies have experienced exchange exposure particularly against the yen. It also finds that, against a trade-weighted index, there is no empirical evidence that Chinese firms are engaged in hedging activities. However, when exposures are measured in yen terms, it finds that Chinese firms, particularly exporters, engage in active currency hedging.

Details

Value Creation in Multinational Enterprise
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-475-1

Book part
Publication date: 2 December 2003

Jongmoo Jay Choi, Takato Hiraki and Nobuya Takezawa

This paper examines the exchange risk sensitivity of Japanese firms, and the exchange risk pricing in the Japanese stock market for the period of 1975–2001. We find that an…

Abstract

This paper examines the exchange risk sensitivity of Japanese firms, and the exchange risk pricing in the Japanese stock market for the period of 1975–2001. We find that an appreciation of the yen is positively associated with industry portfolio returns. This supports the dominance of wealth effects over cash flow effects. This is in contrast to U.S. studies that report a weak, negative relationship between stocks and the domestic currency. The results are more pronounced in the pre-Crash period, and vary somewhat depending on the exchange risk measures used. Similarly, the exchange risk is priced in the pre-Crash period, but not in the post-Crash period. These results suggest that the exchange rate elasticity of the Japanese economy has declined in the post-bubble period of economic stagnation.

Details

The Japanese Finance: Corporate Finance and Capital Markets in ...
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-246-7

Article
Publication date: 21 August 2007

Zubeiru Salifu, Kofi A. Osei and Charles K.D. Adjasi

The purpose of this research is to examine the foreign exchange exposure of listed companies on the Ghana Stock Exchange over the period January 1999 to December 2004. The…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to examine the foreign exchange exposure of listed companies on the Ghana Stock Exchange over the period January 1999 to December 2004. The research uses different exchange rate measures namely; the cedi to US dollar, the cedi to UK pound sterling, the cedi to the euro and a trade‐weighted exchange rate index to determine the degree of exposure.

Design/methodology/approach

The Jorion (1990) two‐factor model which regresses the return on a firm against changes in the exchange rate and return on the market is used to estimate the exchange rate exposure for the sample of twenty firms used in this study.

Findings

About 55 per cent of firms in the sample have a statistically significant exposure to the US dollar whilst 35 per cent are statistically exposed to the UK pound sterling. Sector specific exposure results show that the manufacturing and retail sectors are significantly exposed to the US dollar exchange rate risk. The financial sector did not show any risk exposure to any of the international currencies. The most dominant source of exchange rate risk exposure is the US dollar. Most firms are also negatively exposed to the cedi to US dollar exchange rate changes, implying that the cedi depreciation vis‐à‐vis the US dollar adversely affects firm returns.

Originality/value

The study reveals the extent of foreign exchange exposure of firms in Ghana and also adds to the limited body of empirical literature on exchange rate exposure of firms in Africa. Results of this study serve as a useful guide to corporate managers and investors on the degree of foreign exchange exposure and the need to effectively manage firm exposure.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 8 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 May 2020

Mashukudu Hartley Molele and Janine Mukuddem-Petersen

The purpose of this paper is to examine the level of foreign exchange exposure of listed nonfinancial firms in South Africa. The study spans the period January 2002 and November…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the level of foreign exchange exposure of listed nonfinancial firms in South Africa. The study spans the period January 2002 and November 2015. Foreign exchange risk exposure is estimated in relation to the exchange rate of the South African Rand relative to the US$, the Euro, the British Pound and the trade-weighted exchange rate index.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is based on the augmented-market model of Jorion (1990). The Jorion (1990) is a capital asset pricing model-inspired framework which models share returns as a function of the return on the market index and changes in the exchange rate factor. The market risk factor is meant to discount the effect of macroeconomic factors on share returns, thus isolating the foreign exchange risk factor. In addition, the study further added the size, value, momentum, investment and profitability risk factors in line with the Fama–French three-factor model, Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model to account for the fact that equity capital markets in countries such as South Africa are known to be partially segmented.

Findings

Foreign exchange risk exposure levels were estimated at more than 40% for all the proxy currencies on the basis of the standard augmented market model. However, after controlling for idiosyncratic factors, through the application of the Fama–French three-factor model, the Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model, exposure levels were found to range between 6.5 and 12%.

Research limitations/implications

These results indicate the importance of controlling for the effects of idiosyncratic facto0rs in the estimation of foreign exchange risk exposure in the context of emerging markets of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Originality/value

This is the first study to apply the Fama–French three-factor model, Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model in the estimation of foreign exchange exposure of nonfinancial firms in the context of a SSA country. These results indicate the importance of controlling for the effects of idiosyncratic factors in the estimation of foreign exchange risk exposure in the context of emerging markets.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 21 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 April 2020

Abdulnasser Hatemi-J and Youssef El-Khatib

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between the trade-weighted dollar exchange rates and the oil prices in the world market. Monthly data during 1980–2017 are used…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between the trade-weighted dollar exchange rates and the oil prices in the world market. Monthly data during 1980–2017 are used for this purpose.

Design/methodology/approach

The symmetric and asymmetric generalized impulse response functions are estimated for these important economic indicators.

Findings

The empirical findings show that if the dollar rate increases (i.e. the dollar depreciates), the oil price will increase. The reverse relationship is also supported empirically meaning that an increase in the oil price will results in a significant depreciation of the dollar rate. Based on the asymmetric impulses responses, it can also be claimed that the negative interaction is only significant for the positive changes and not for the negative ones. Thus, the underlying variables are negatively interrelated only for the positive shocks since a negative shock from any variable does not seem to have any significant impact on the other variable. These results have implications for cross hedging of price risk.

Originality/value

To the best knowledge, this is the first attempt to investigate the relationship between the dollar weighted exchange rate and the oil pieces via the asymmetric impulse response functions. Both of these variables and their interactions are very important for investors as well as policy makers worldwide.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 47 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 August 2021

Chu-Sheng Tai

It has been increasingly recognized that exchange rate changes affect the cash flow and the value of firms. Existing studies on exchange rate exposure do not have much success in…

Abstract

Purpose

It has been increasingly recognized that exchange rate changes affect the cash flow and the value of firms. Existing studies on exchange rate exposure do not have much success in finding significant exposure, and the failure to find this relationship empirically has been termed “exposure puzzle”. Motivated by the limited success in detecting significant exchange rate exposure in the extant literature, China's exchange rate regime reform in 2005, the increasing role of China's stock market played in the global financial market and its attractiveness in international portfolio diversification, the purpose of this paper is to resolve the so-called “exposure puzzle” and thus make a contribution to the literature by investigating whether the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate movements have any significant impact on China's stock market from the perspective of US investors who may want to diversify their portfolios with Chinese stocks.

Design/methodology/approach

Since previous studies which rely heavily on the standard Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) or seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method of estimation with the assumption of constant variance of firm's or industry's returns do not have much success in detecting significant exchange rate exposure, in this study, we apply an asymmetric GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (GED) model which takes conditional heteroscedasticity and leptokurtosis of asset returns into account in the estimation of first- and second-moment exchange rate exposure.

Findings

Using weekly data over the period August 10, 2005–January 1, 2020 on 40 Chinese sector stock returns, the authors find strong evidence of first-moment exchange rate exposure. In particular, 65% (26 out of 40) of sectors examined have significant first-moment exposures and 73.08% (19 out of 26) of these significant first-moment exposures are asymmetric. For the second-moment exchange rate exposures, they are less frequently detected with 20% (8 out of 40) significant cases. These results are robust to whether an unorthogonalized or orthogonalized bilateral US dollar (USD)/Chinese Yuan (CNY) exchange rate is used in the estimation.

Research limitations/implications

Because this study concerns only with whether exchange rate movements affect ex post returns as opposed to expected (ex ante) returns, and given the significant exposures with respect to different risk factors found in the study, it is interesting to see if any of these risk factors commands a risk premium. In other words, a natural extension of this study is to test whether any of these risk factors is priced in China's stock market.

Practical implications

The findings of the study have interesting implications for US investors who would like to diversify their portfolios with Chinese stocks and are concerned about whether the unexpected movements in CNY will affect their portfolio returns in addition to its local and world market risk exposures.

Originality/value

The study extends previous research on the first- and second-moment exchange rate exposure of Chinese stock returns by utilizing an asymmetric GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (GED) model, which has not been fully exploited in the literature.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 48 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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