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This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment, and government science and technology investment.

This study constructs and estimates a New Keynesian model of endogenous technological progress embedded in the research and development (R&D) and technology transfer sectors. Using Chinese macroeconomic time series data from 1996 to 2019, this study calibrates and estimates the model and analyzes the impulse response function and a counterfactual simulation of expenditure structure adjustment.

The results show that compared with the traditional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the endogenous process of technological progress amplifies the impact of government consumption shock and traditional government investment shock on the macroeconomy, leading to greater economic cycle fluctuations. As government investment in science and technology has positive external spillover effects on firm R&D activities and the application of innovation achievements, it can promote more sustainable economic growth than government consumption and traditional investment in the long run.

This study constructs an extended New Keynesian model with different types of government spending, which includes endogenous technological progress within the R&D and technology transfer sectors, thereby linking fiscal policy, business cycle fluctuations and long-term economic growth. This model can study the macroeconomic impact of fiscal expenditure structure adjustment when fiscal expansion is limited. In the Bayesian estimation of model parameters, this study not only uses macroeconomic variables but also adds a sequence of private R&D investment.

This study aims to propose a refined dynamic network slacks-based measure (DNSBM) to evaluate the efficiency of China's regional green innovation system which consists of basic research, applied research and commercialization stages and explore the influencing factors of the stage efficiency.

A two-step procedure is employed. The first step proposes an improved DNSBM model with flexible settings of stages' input or output efficiency and uses second order cone programming (SOCP) to solve the non-linear problem. In the second step, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and Tobit models are used to explore the influencing factors of the stage efficiency. Global Dynamic Malmquist Productivity Index (GDMPI) and Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method are introduced for further discussion of the productivity change and regional differences.

On average, Chinese provincial green innovation efficiency should be improved by 24.11% to become efficient. The commercialization stage outperforms the stages of basic research and applied research. Comparisons between the proposed model and input-oriented, output-oriented and non-oriented DNSBM models show that the proposed model is more advanced because it allows some stages to have output-oriented model characteristics while the other stages have input-oriented model characteristics. The examination of the influencing factors reveals that the three stages of the green innovation system have quite diverse influencing factors. Further discussion reveals that Chinese green innovation productivity has increased by 39.85%, which is driven mainly by technology progress, and the increasing tendency of regional differences between northern and southern China should be paid attention to.

This study proposes an improved dynamic three-stage slacks-based measure (SBM) model that allows calculating output efficiency in some stages and input efficiency in the other stages with the application of SOCP approach. In order to capture productivity change, this study develops a GDMPI based on the DNSBM model. In practice, the efficiency of regional green innovation in China and the factors that influence each stage are examined.

Previous studies demonstrate that market-oriented reform has contributed significantly to China's economic growth from the efficiency-based economic view. But some argue that state-owned firms have access to policy information, scarce resources, and government support, and thus state-owned firms might foster innovation. This study tries to find out either market force or state ownership helps improve firms' R&D efficiency.

Using data from China's high-tech industry, we employed the fixed-effect stochastic frontier model and the spatial panel Han-Philips linear dynamic regression model to investigate the relationship between market-oriented reform and the dynamic evolution of R&D efficiency in both temporal and spatial dimensions. Moreover, we examined whether the relationship is affected in a state-owned economy and an industry protection environment.

The results indicate the following: (1) the R&D efficiency of China's high-tech industry has improved steadily and has converged gradually across its regions during the market-oriented reform; (2) the marketization degree is positively correlated with R&D efficiency and its regional convergence; (3) the state-owned economy and industry protection have significantly weakened the ability of market forces to shape R&D efficiency — i.e. they reduce, rather than enhance, R&D efficiency.

This investigation helps understand the drivers of R&D efficiency in transition economies, and the findings are also helpful in defining the boundaries and constraints of market forces.

This study investigated the asymmetric effects of changes in policy uncertainty on real sector variables in Brazil, China, India and South Africa.

The study used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modeling framework.

The results showed that both in the long run and short run, rising uncertainty not only increases consumer prices significantly in these economies, but also impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths, and deters investment, employment and private consumption. Contrary to economic expectation, the results also showed that in the long run, declining uncertainty impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths in these economies, and significantly hinders employment in South Africa and Brazil. This suggests that in the long run, economic agents in these economies somewhat behave as if uncertainty is rising. The authors also found significant asymmetric effects in the response of real sector variables to uncertainty both in the long run and short run, which justifies the choice of NARDL framework for this study.

The sample is limited to Brazil, India, China and South Africa. While Brazil, India and China are three of the most prominent large emerging market economies, South Africa is the largest emerging market economy in Africa.

To lessen the adverse effects of policy uncertainty observed in the results, there is need for sound institutions and policy regimes that can promote predictable policy responses in these economies so that policy neither serves as a source of uncertainty nor as a channel through which the effects of other shocks are transmitted.

Apart from using the NARDL framework to capture the asymmetric effects of policy uncertainty, this study also accounted for the sectoral effects of uncertainty in emerging markets.

This paper aims to examine spillover effects of heterogenous foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises (domestic vs. export-oriented) through horizontal and vertical linkages and absorptive capacity effect on domestic firms' total factor productivity (TFP). It clarifies the spillover effect on domestic firms in accordance with industrial zones, business size, technology sector and geographical agglomeration, respectively.

The dataset used is based on Vietnamese manufacturing firms during 2011–2014, input–output (I–O) Table 2012. This paper is conducted in two steps: (1) TFP is estimated by using a semi-parametric approach developed by Levinsohn and Petrin (2003); (2) Regression with panel data for domestic firms, applying the fixed effect method.

In terms of domestic-oriented FDI (DFDI) enterprise group: TFP spillover through horizontal linkages is found negative for domestic firms but positive for those participating in export. Additionally, backward linkages have a negative impact on TFP for most domestic enterprises, except for those operating in the high-tech sector. In terms of export-oriented FDI (EFDI) enterprise group, horizontal linkages have a negative impact on domestic firms' TFP including domestic ones participating in export whereas backward linkage is an important channel with positive effects. Absorptive capacity enables firms to improve productivity through linkages with EFDI and DFDI enterprises. Exporters located in industrial zones or regions with numerous exporters can receive better impacts through backward linkages EFDI.

Comprehensively, this is the first paper to detect FDI heterogeneity in their behavior when entering a developing country like Vietnam. The added value in this study comes from the export ability of local firms which is in line with Melitz (2003) theory that they can excel in absorping the TFP spillover from competing with DFDI competitors or from supplying to EFDI enterprises. Moreover, the role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), low technology, high technology and learning by regions affecting the impact through both horizontal and vertical linkages are included for analysis.

This study aims to examine the complex effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on China’s agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) from 2005 to 2020. It also explores the role of absorptive capacity as a moderating factor during this period.

Employing provincial panel data from China, this research measures agricultural TFP using the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA)-Malmquist method. The impact of FDI on agricultural productivity is further analyzed using a nondynamic panel threshold model.

The results highlight technological progress as the main driver of agricultural TFP growth in China. Agricultural FDI (AFDI) seems to impede TFP development, whereas nonagricultural FDI (NAFDI) shows a distinct positive spillover effect. The study reveals a threshold in absorptive capacity that affects both the direct and spillover impacts of FDI. Provinces with higher absorptive capacity are less negatively impacted by AFDI and more likely to benefit from FDI spillovers (FDISs).

This study provides new insights into the intricate relationship between FDI, absorptive capacity and agricultural productivity. It underscores the importance of optimizing technological progress and research and development (R&D) to enhance agricultural productivity in China.

Earned value management (EVM)–based models for estimating project actual duration (AD) and cost at completion using various methods are continuously developed to improve the accuracy and actualization of predicted values. This study primarily aimed to examine natural gradient boosting (NGBoost-2020) with the classification and regression trees (CART) base model (base learner). To the best of the authors' knowledge, this concept has never been applied to EVM AD forecasting problem. Consequently, the authors compared this method to the single K-nearest neighbor (KNN) method, the ensemble method of extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost-2016) with the CART base model and the optimal equation of EVM, the earned schedule (ES) equation with the performance factor equal to 1 (ES1). The paper also sought to determine the extent to which the World Bank's two legal factors affect countries and how the two legal causes of delay (related to institutional flaws) influence AD prediction models.

In this paper, data from 30 construction projects of various building types in Iran, Pakistan, India, Turkey, Malaysia and Nigeria (due to the high number of delayed projects and the detrimental effects of these delays in these countries) were used to develop three models. The target variable of the models was a dimensionless output, the ratio of estimated duration to completion (ETC(t)) to planned duration (PD). Furthermore, 426 tracking periods were used to build the three models, with 353 samples and 23 projects in the training set, 73 patterns (17% of the total) and six projects (21% of the total) in the testing set. Furthermore, 17 dimensionless input variables were used, including ten variables based on the main variables and performance indices of EVM and several other variables detailed in the study. The three models were subsequently created using Python and several GitHub-hosted codes.

For the testing set of the optimal model (NGBoost), the better percentage mean (better%) of the prediction error (based on projects with a lower error percentage) of the NGBoost compared to two KNN and ES1 single models, as well as the total mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean lags (MeLa) (indicating model stability) were 100, 83.33, 5.62 and 3.17%, respectively. Notably, the total MAPE and MeLa for the NGBoost model testing set, which had ten EVM-based input variables, were 6.74 and 5.20%, respectively. The ensemble artificial intelligence (AI) models exhibited a much lower MAPE than ES1. Additionally, ES1 was less stable in prediction than NGBoost. The possibility of excessive and unusual MAPE and MeLa values occurred only in the two single models. However, on some data sets, ES1 outperformed AI models. NGBoost also outperformed other models, especially single models for most developing countries, and was more accurate than previously presented optimized models. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the NGBoost predicted outputs of 30 projects using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. All variables demonstrated an effect on ETC(t)/PD. The results revealed that the most influential input variables in order of importance were actual time (AT) to PD, regulatory quality (RQ), earned duration (ED) to PD, schedule cost index (SCI), planned complete percentage, rule of law (RL), actual complete percentage (ACP) and ETC(t) of the ES optimal equation to PD. The probabilistic hybrid model was selected based on the outputs predicted by the NGBoost and XGBoost models and the MAPE values from three AI models. The 95% prediction interval of the NGBoost–XGBoost model revealed that 96.10 and 98.60% of the actual output values of the testing and training sets are within this interval, respectively.

Due to the use of projects performed in different countries, it was not possible to distribute the questionnaire to the managers and stakeholders of 30 projects in six developing countries. Due to the low number of EVM-based projects in various references, it was unfeasible to utilize other types of projects. Future prospects include evaluating the accuracy and stability of NGBoost for timely and non-fluctuating projects (mostly in developed countries), considering a greater number of legal/institutional variables as input, using legal/institutional/internal/inflation inputs for complex projects with extremely high uncertainty (such as bridge and road construction) and integrating these inputs and NGBoost with new technologies (such as blockchain, radio frequency identification (RFID) systems, building information modeling (BIM) and Internet of things (IoT)).

The legal/intuitive recommendations made to governments are strict control of prices, adequate supervision, removal of additional rules, removal of unfair regulations, clarification of the future trend of a law change, strict monitoring of property rights, simplification of the processes for obtaining permits and elimination of unnecessary changes particularly in developing countries and at the onset of irregular projects with limited information and numerous uncertainties. Furthermore, the managers and stakeholders of this group of projects were informed of the significance of seven construction variables (institutional/legal external risks, internal factors and inflation) at an early stage, using time series (dynamic) models to predict AD, accurate calculation of progress percentage variables, the effectiveness of building type in non-residential projects, regular updating inflation during implementation, effectiveness of employer type in the early stage of public projects in addition to the late stage of private projects, and allocating reserve duration (buffer) in order to respond to institutional/legal risks.

Ensemble methods were optimized in 70% of references. To the authors' knowledge, NGBoost from the set of ensemble methods was not used to estimate construction project duration and delays. NGBoost is an effective method for considering uncertainties in irregular projects and is often implemented in developing countries. Furthermore, AD estimation models do fail to incorporate RQ and RL from the World Bank's worldwide governance indicators (WGI) as risk-based inputs. In addition, the various WGI, EVM and inflation variables are not combined with substantial degrees of delay institutional risks as inputs. Consequently, due to the existence of critical and complex risks in different countries, it is vital to consider legal and institutional factors. This is especially recommended if an in-depth, accurate and reality-based method like SHAP is used for analysis.

This paper analyzes real and welfare effects of a permanent change in inflation rate, focusing on macroprudential policy’ role and its interaction with monetary policy.

While investigating disinflation costs, the authors simulate a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints, credit frictions and macroprudential authority.

Providing discussions on different policy scenarios in a context where still it is expected high inflation, there are three key contributions. First, when macroprudential authority actively operates to improve financial stability, losses caused by disinflation are limited. Second, a Taylor rule directly responding to financial variables might entail a trade-off between price and financial stability objectives, by increasing disinflation costs. Third, disinflation is welfare improving for savers, while costly for borrowers and banks. Indeed, while savers benefit from policies reducing price stickiness distortion, borrowers are worried about credit frictions, coming from collateral constraint.

The paper suggests threefold policy implications: the macroprudential authority should actively intervene during a disinflation process to minimize costs and financial instability deriving from it; policymakers should implement a disinflationary policy stabilizing also output; the central bank and the macroprudential regulator should pursue financial and price stability goals, separately.

This paper is the first attempt to study effects of a permanent inflation target reduction in focusing on the macroprudential policy’ role.

This study aims to examine how environmental, social and governance (ESG) initiatives and ISO 14001, which is an internationally agreed standard to set out the requirements for an environmental management system, affect firm performance in the context of the Industry 4.0 supply chain.

The authors develop a new chance-constrained network data envelopment analysis (DEA) in the presence of non-positive data to estimate innovation, operational and profitability performances for three main relation groups (suppliers, partners and customers) in Microsoft's supply chain.

Results of this study show the following: (1) the application of ISO 14001 will reduce profitability but increase overall performance (OP); (2) ESG implementation has a convex U-shaped influence on profitability and OP, which means that firms will benefit when ESG investment goes beyond a particular level; (3) the nonlinear U-shape is presented in the E and G components, but not in the S of the individual ESG initiatives, and (4) only specific subcomponents of S and G in the subcomponent of individual ESG initiatives are nonlinearly connected to OP. Research's results reveal that the customer group has a higher performance value than the other two groups, which suggests that this group will create competitive advantages for Microsoft.

Overall, the authors provide an insightful viewpoint into supply chain management by examining the ESG initiatives, ISO 14001 and performances of Microsoft's supply chain.

This investigation is designed to quantify and appraise the efficiency of resource distribution in the provision of public digital cultural services in China. By acknowledging and incorporating the realities of China's social development, the authors offer recommendations for enhancement derived from the study’s data analysis results. The research zeroes in on the dissection and analysis of the integral elements that structure the provision of public digital cultural services, and it concentrates on the associated data computation. The conclusions drawn herein are expected to serve as a significant point of reference for ongoing academic investigations and practical explorations in affiliated domains.

In this research, the authors utilize a hybrid methodology to meticulously evaluate the efficiency of the components that underpin the provision of public digital cultural services (PDCS) in China. The authors embark on deconstructing the various constituents within the PDCS supply framework, conducting in-depth analyses and providing cogent interpretations of each integral element. Subsequently, the authors deploy the well-regarded SBM super-efficiency model to ascertain the operational efficiency of these components. Ultimately, through a comprehensive interpretation of the measured data and the integration of extant societal development conditions, the authors put forth relevant recommendations.

The provision of PDCS in China as of 2021 had been characterized by overall good efficiency, significant regional disparity and a disconnect between inputs and outputs with weak correlations to economic and demographic data.

In this study, the authors provide an exhaustive deconstruction and interpretation of the public digital cultural services supply system, thereby proposing a framework for evaluating the efficiency of supply element allocation. Additionally, the authors have determined a set of distinct measurable indicators that are readily accessible for open collection. Notably, this analytical and evaluative framework designed for element analysis and measurement may also find application in efficiency evaluation research of the supply systems of other related cultural endeavors.