Search results

The comparison between economic growth and the character of monetary policy is one of the most frequently studied issues in policymaking. However, the number of studies incorporating a dynamic time warping approach to analyse the similarity of macroeconomic variables is relatively small.

The study aims at assessing the mutual similarity among various variables representing the financial sector (including the monetary policy by the central bank) and the real sector (e.g. economic growth, industrial production, household consumption expenditure), as well as cross-similarity between both sectors.

The analysis is based on the dynamic time warping (DTW) method, which allows for capturing various dimensions of changes of considered variables. This method is almost non-existent in the literature to compare financial and economic time series. The application of this method constitutes the main area of value added of the research. The analysis includes five variables representing the financial sector and five from the real sector. The study covers four countries: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania and the 2010–2022 period (quarterly data).

The results show that variables representing the financial sector, including those reflecting monetary policy, are weakly correlated with each other, whereas the variables representing the real economy have a solid mutual similarity. As regards individual variables, for example, GDP fluctuations show relatively substantial similarity to ROE fluctuations – especially in Czechia and Hungary. In the case of Hungary and Romania, CAR fluctuations are consistent with GDP fluctuations. In the case of Poland and Hungary, there is a relatively strong similarity between the economy's monetisation and economic growth. Comparing the individual countries, two clusters of countries can be identified. One cluster includes Poland and Czechia, while another covers Hungary and Romania.

This study investigated the asymmetric effects of changes in policy uncertainty on real sector variables in Brazil, China, India and South Africa.

The study used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modeling framework.

The results showed that both in the long run and short run, rising uncertainty not only increases consumer prices significantly in these economies, but also impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths, and deters investment, employment and private consumption. Contrary to economic expectation, the results also showed that in the long run, declining uncertainty impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths in these economies, and significantly hinders employment in South Africa and Brazil. This suggests that in the long run, economic agents in these economies somewhat behave as if uncertainty is rising. The authors also found significant asymmetric effects in the response of real sector variables to uncertainty both in the long run and short run, which justifies the choice of NARDL framework for this study.

The sample is limited to Brazil, India, China and South Africa. While Brazil, India and China are three of the most prominent large emerging market economies, South Africa is the largest emerging market economy in Africa.

To lessen the adverse effects of policy uncertainty observed in the results, there is need for sound institutions and policy regimes that can promote predictable policy responses in these economies so that policy neither serves as a source of uncertainty nor as a channel through which the effects of other shocks are transmitted.

Apart from using the NARDL framework to capture the asymmetric effects of policy uncertainty, this study also accounted for the sectoral effects of uncertainty in emerging markets.

This study aims to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between India’s real exchange rate and sectoral productivity trends using internationally comparable KLEMS databases on productivity for India, China, Euro area, the USA, the UK and Japan.

This study uses pooled mean group estimations for panel data suggested by Pesaran et al. (1999). This method is chosen because of the presence of variables with different orders of integration.

The results find support for an “extended” Balassa–Samuelson (BS) hypothesis which allows labour market frictions that does not allow for wage equalisation between traded and non-traded sectors within a country. This mechanism continues to find some support when we separate out distribution sector that comprises wholesale and retail trade in the domestic services sector. The empirical evidence suggests that India’s real exchange rate is anchored to domestic fundamentals and is closely aligned to its fair value over a medium to long-time horizon.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, unlike the available literature, which uses aggregate per-capita income as proxy for a country’s productivity growth, this paper perhaps makes the first attempt to validate the BS hypothesis by accounting for productivity differential at the sectoral levels using KLEMS data across countries. Moreover, this study takes the country’s productivity improvement rather than using a basket of countries, a prevalent practice in the literature. While this paper uses India’s data, which witnessed a prolonged appreciation in its real effective exchange rate and rapid technological progress, the authors believe its findings and policy implications could be applicable to the similar emerging market economies.

Extant literature suggests that the difficulty associated with the interpretation of macroeconomic news announcements by the market in general in different economic environments, might be the reason why most studies do not find any significant relationship between real-sector macroeconomic variables and financial asset returns. This paper aims to use a different approach to measure macroeconomic news. The objective is to examine if a different measure of a macroeconomic news variable, constructed from media coverage of the same, significantly affects hedge fund returns.

The authors use a news index for unemployment, which is a real-sector variable, constructed from newspaper coverage of unemployment announcements and examine its impact on hedge fund returns.

Contrary to the other studies that examine the impact of macroeconomic news on hedge fund returns, the authors find that media coverage of unemployment news announcements significantly affects hedge fund returns.

Overall, this paper demonstrates that the manner in which the market interprets macroeconomic news announcements in different economic environments is probably a more relevant factor for hedge funds and is more likely to impact hedge fund returns. In conjunction with variables – constructed from media coverage of unemployment news announcements – that factor in the manner of interpretation, it is found that surprises also matter for hedge fund returns. This is an important consideration for hedge fund managers as well.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of media coverage of macroeconomic news announcements on hedge fund returns and finds significantly different results with real-sector macro variables.

This study aims to provide an empirical investigation into rising capital flight and the role of institutional quality to mitigate its effect on the real sector in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

The study uses the system generalized method of moments and uses data spanning from 1989 to 2020 from 26 SSA countries.

The findings show that capital flight has no direct impact on the real sector while institutional quality adversely impacted the agricultural and industrial sectors. The study also found that institutional quality is unable to mitigate the effect of capital flight on the industrial sector.

This study investigates if institutional quality mitigates the impact of capital flight on the real sector proxied by industrial value-added and agriculture value-added.

The literature on sustainable development reveals that the financial sector and the real sector should maintain a coherent association in the long run. Thus, like that in a country-level significance, the relevance of the investigations of the interrelationships between the financial sector’s development and the growth and development of the states within a country is also required to be done. This chapter tries to examine the interrelationships between two sets of variables, bank credit and state output, and bank credit and human development, for the pre-reform and post-reform periods. Using the appropriate time series econometric analysis, the study finds no long-run relationships between credit and NSDP during the pre-reform period but it has observed a number of states where such stable relations hold during the post-reform period. Again, there are mixed results between the two in the Granger causality analysis during both the periods. There are the states like AP, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala and WB where developments in the financial sector influence the growth of the real sector, while the reverse causality, that is, from the real sector to the financial sectors works in case of Assam, Haryana, MP and Maharashtra. Bidirectional causality between the two is observed in the states like TN, WB, etc. Further, the study finds very small number of states where credit and human development are interlinked in the long run. However, in the short run, the financial sector makes influences to the human development in case of the states like Bihar, Odisha and TN.

A change in monetary operating procedures provides a natural experiment which is used to evaluate, first, whether Indian monetary policy transmission is better when durable liquidity is in surplus or when it is in deficit; second whether it is better with interest rates as the policy instrument or quantity of money or a mixture of the two.

This study first shows that the period of analysis can be divided into two separate regimes one of liquidity surplus (2002–2010) and the other of deficit (2011–2019).This study then estimates separate structural vector auto-regressions (SVARs) for the financial and real sector, with relevant exogenous foreign, policy and other variables for each of the periods as well as SVARs for the whole period with alternative operating instruments.

Monetary transmission from the repo rate was better during the period the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) was in surplus with the central bank in absorption mode denoting excess durable liquidity. Pass through was faster and the repo rate had a greater influence on other variables. The impact of the rate on output gap exceeds that on inflation. The weighted average call money rate was found to outperform others as the operating target. Monetary policy has evolved so that policy rates are more effective in transmission compared to money supply, but best results are when durable liquidity is also in surplus.

The results contribute to ongoing debates on the Indian monetary policy framework and give useful inputs for policy in emerging markets where research is scarce. They suggest keeping the LAF in deficit mode over 2011–19 was not optimal.

The purpose of this paper is to derive the real implications of inflation targeting using optimizing models characterized by endogenous time preference.

To ensure consistent consumption and savings behavior, the rate of time preference is modeled as an increasing function of real wealth.

The results are not uniform and depend on the methods for modeling money in the general equilibrium framework; money in the utility function (MIU) and cash‐in‐advance constraints (CIA). With MIU, time preference wealth effects link the monetary and real sectors by endogenizing real interest rate. Monetary growth raises steady state capital and consumption by the Tobin effect. However, if money is introduced through CIA constraints, inflation policies are sensitive to the structure of the constraint itself. If the constraint applies to consumption and capital purchases, monetary growth lowers the steady state demand for both commodities and reverses the Tobin effect. If the constraint applies only to consumption goods, the same monetary policy is superneutral. This time preference specification has important advantages. It is consistent with the literature that integrates reinforcing wealth effects into aggregative models using ad‐hoc consumption or savings functions. Allowing the rate of time preference to depend positively on real wealth implies that optimizing behavior, not ad‐hoc specification yields wealth effects that endogenize the real interest rate and generate a Tobin effect. This time preference specification provides optimizing foundations for modeling savings as a decreasing function of real wealth, which is empirically verifiable and consistent with empirical predictions of consumption as an increasing function of real wealth.

This paper demonstrates the different effects that monetary policy maintains on steady state capital, consumption and real balance holdings in economies characterized by an endogenous rate of time preference.

This study examines the relationship between economic fluctuations and financial distress in the US agricultural sector, which is associated with a large degree of financial instability.

The authors developed a parsimonious model of economic fluctuations in the US agricultural sector. The authors used statistical filter methods to identify the co-movement in cyclical fluctuations in real, cumulative growth rates in farm real estate values, farm sector debt and leverage.

The proposed model closely approximated the financial evolution of the US agricultural sector between 1960 and 2018. In addition, the authors proved that the proposed model is an early warning indicator of farm loan delinquencies and farm bankruptcies.

This study exploits recent advances in economic theory and empirical macroeconomic modeling to develop a model that is a robust predictor of financial distress in the agricultural sector. Further, the authors demonstrate that the policy interventions following the 1980s farm financial crisis demonstrate the likely long-run economic response to the policies enacted following the 2008 financial crisis.