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Article
Publication date: 12 October 2012

Yaoqi Guo, Jianbo Huang and Hui Cheng

Recently, many scholars have been paying more attention to studying the existence and application of multifractality. However, most researches concentrate on studying multifractal

Abstract

Purpose

Recently, many scholars have been paying more attention to studying the existence and application of multifractality. However, most researches concentrate on studying multifractal features of returns or volume separately, and ignore the correlation between them. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to give an empirical test on multifractal features of price‐volume correlation in China metal futures market and then to conduct a comparative analysis from time and space dimensions, in order to better understand metals futures market behavior.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper gives an empirical test by means of multifractal detrended cross‐correlation analysis (MF‐DCCA) approach, which is a technique employed in statistical physics to detect multifractal features of two cross‐correlated nonstationary time series.

Findings

Empirical results show that the price‐volume correlation in China metal futures market is multifractal and that long range correlation and non‐Gaussian probability distribution are the main reasons for the existence of multifractality. Also, a comparative analysis is conducted and it is found that although China metal futures market is becoming more and more effective, the effectiveness is lower than that in mature LME metal futures markets. The futures market still needs further development.

Originality/value

The paper's conclusions would help to understand the nonlinear dependency relationship and potential dynamics mechanism in price‐volume correlation.

Article
Publication date: 15 May 2023

Luiz Eduardo Gaio and Daniel Henrique Dario Capitani

This study investigates the impacts of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the cross-correlation between agricultural commodity prices and crude oil prices.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the impacts of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the cross-correlation between agricultural commodity prices and crude oil prices.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used MultiFractal Detrended Fluctuation Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-X-DFA) to explore the correlation behavior before and during conflict. The authors analyzed the price connections between future prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities. Data consists of daily futures price returns for agricultural commodities (Corn, Soybean and Wheat) and Crude Oil (Brent) traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from Aug 3, 2020, to July 29, 2022.

Findings

The results suggest that cross-correlation behavior changed after the conflict. The multifractal behavior was observed in the cross correlations. The Russia–Ukraine conflict caused an increase in the series' fractal strength. The study findings showed that the correlations involving the wheat market were higher and anti-persistent behavior was observed.

Research limitations/implications

The study was limited by the number of observations after the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature that investigates the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the financial market. As this is a recent event, as far as we know, we did not find another study that investigated cross-correlation in agricultural commodities using multifractal analysis.

Details

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-0839

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 March 2023

Ons Zaouga and Nadia Loukil

The purpose of this paper is to test the existence of stylized facts, such as the volatility clustering, heavy tails seen on financial series, long-term dependence and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to test the existence of stylized facts, such as the volatility clustering, heavy tails seen on financial series, long-term dependence and multifractality on the returns of four real estate indexes using different types of indexes: conventional and Islamic by comparing pre and during COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the authors examined the characteristics of the indexes. Secondly, the authors estimated the parameters of the stable distribution. Then, the long memory is detected via the estimation of the Hurst exponents. Afterwards, the authors determine the graphs of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). Finally, the authors apply the WTMM method.

Findings

The results suggest that the real estate indexes are far from being efficient and that the lowest level of multifractality was observed for Islamic indexes.

Research limitations/implications

The inefficiency behavior of real estate indexes gives us an idea about the prediction of the behavior of future returns in these markets on the basis of past informations. Similarly, market participants would do well to reassess their investment and risk management framework to mitigate new and somewhat higher levels of risk of their exposures during the turbulent period.

Originality/value

To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first real estate market study employing STL decomposition before applying the MF-DFA in the context of the COVID-19 crisis. Likewise, the study is the first investigation that focuses on these four indexes.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 April 2020

Sezer Kahyaoglu Bozkus, Hakan Kahyaoglu and Atahirou Mahamane Mahamane Lawali

The purpose of this study aims to analyze the dynamic behavior of the relationship between atmospheric carbon emissions and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study aims to analyze the dynamic behavior of the relationship between atmospheric carbon emissions and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) industrial production index (IPI) in the short and long term by applying multifractal techniques.

Design/methodology/approach

Multifractal de-trended cross-correlation technique is used for this analysis based on the relevant literature. In addition, it is the most widely used approach to estimate multifractality because it generates robust empirical results against non-stationarities in the time series.

Findings

It is revealed that industrial production causes long and short term environmental costs. The OECD IPI and atmospheric carbon emissions were found to have a strong correlation between the time domain. However, this relationship does not mostly take into account the frequency-based correlations with the tail effects caused by shocks that are effective on the economy. In this study, the long-term dependence of the relationship between the OECD IPI and atmospheric carbon emissions differs from the correlation obtained by linear methods, as the analysis is based on the frequency. The major finding is that the Hurst coefficient is in the range 0.40-0.75 indicating.

Research limitations/implications

In this study, the local singular behavior of the time-series is analyzed to test for the multifractality characteristics of the series. In this context, the scaling exponents and the singularity spectrum are obtained to determine the origins of this multifractality. The multifractal time series are defined as the set of points with a given singularity exponent a where this exponent a is illustrated as a fractal with fractal dimension f(α). Therefore, the multifractality term indicates the existence of fluctuations, which are non-uniform and more importantly, their relative frequencies are also scale-dependent.

Practical implications

The results provide information based on the fluctuation in IPI, which determines the main conjuncture of the economy. An optimal strategy for shaping the consequences of climate change resulting from industrial production activities will not only need to be quite comprehensive and global in scale but also policies will need to be applicable to the national and local conditions of the given nation and adaptable to the needs of the country.

Social implications

The results provide information for the analysis of the environmental cost of climate change depending on the magnitude of the impact on the total supply. In addition to environmental problems, climate change leads to economic problems, and hence, policy instruments are introduced to fight against the adverse effects of it.

Originality/value

This study may be of practical and technical importance in regional climate change forecasting, extreme carbon emission regulations and industrial production resource management in the world economy. Hence, the major contribution of this study is to introduce an approach to sustainability for the analysis of the environmental cost of growth in the supply side economy.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 July 2021

Theodoros Daglis

By combining econometrics and multifractal methods, utilizing a financial framework, this paper will examine with objectivity the economic, financial and social impact of…

Abstract

Purpose

By combining econometrics and multifractal methods, utilizing a financial framework, this paper will examine with objectivity the economic, financial and social impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on society.

Design/methodology/approach

Through Granger causality, the authors test the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on excessive gaming and gambling activities, and through econometrics and multifractal methods, they combine the results to analyze a possible long-run relationship.

Findings

The COVID-19 confirmed cases Granger cause all examined stocks. Based on the co-integration technique, and the multifractal cross-correlation analysis, a long-run relationship exists between all examined stocks and COVID-19.

Originality/value

This is an empirical examination of a very important subject in the field of economics, namely, the consequences of the COVID-19-related events on the behavior of global citizens. It proposes a different and more objective approach (than the interviews and questionnaires) in the examination of this specific subject, through a financial framework, depicting the stock performance of the gaming and online gambling-related companies, and reflecting on the activity of these companies. It combines two different approaches from two different disciplines, namely econometrics and multifractal analysis, to test and describe the causal and the long-run relationship between the phenomena examined, combining the results to an overall and multidimensional view of this occurrence.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 49 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 September 2023

Muhammad Rehan and Mustafa Gül

This study aimed to examine the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the stock markets of 12 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), such as Egypt…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to examine the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the stock markets of 12 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), such as Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Morocco, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), during the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 (CV-19) epidemic. The objective was to classify the effects on individual indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employed the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) on daily returns. After calculation and analysis, the data were then divided into two significant events: the GFC and the CV-19 pandemic. Additionally, the market deficiency measure (MDM) was utilized to assess and rank market efficiency.

Findings

The findings indicate that the average returns series exhibited persistent and non-persistent patterns during the GFC and the CV-19 pandemic, respectively. The study employed MF-DFA to analyze the sequence of normal returns. The results suggest that the average returns series displayed persistent and non-persistent patterns during the GFC and the CV-19 pandemic, respectively. Furthermore, all markets demonstrated efficiency during the two crisis periods, with Turkey and Tunisia exhibiting the highest and deepest levels of efficiency, respectively. The multifractal properties were influenced by long-range correlations and fat-tailed distributions, with the latter being the primary contributor. Moreover, the impact of the fat-tailed distribution on multifractality was found to be more pronounced for indices with lower market efficiency. In conclusion, this study categorizes indices with low market efficiency during both crisis periods, which subsequently affect the distribution of assets among shareholders in the stock markets of OIC member countries.

Practical implications

Multifractal patterns, especially the long memory property observed in stock markets, can assist investors in formulating profitable investment strategies. Additionally, this study will contribute to a better understanding of market trends during similar events should they occur in the future.

Originality/value

This research marks the initial effort to assess the impact of the GFC and the CV19 pandemic on the efficiency of stock markets in OIC countries. This undertaking is of paramount importance due to the potential destabilizing and harmful effects of these events on global financial markets and societal well-being. Furthermore, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study represents the first investigation utilizing the MFDFA method to analyze the primary stock markets of OIC countries, encompassing both the GFC and CV19 crises.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 24 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 November 2022

Chao Liu, Wei Zhang, Qiwei Xie and Chao Wang

This study aims to systematically reveal the complex interaction between uncertainty and the international commodity market (CRB).

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to systematically reveal the complex interaction between uncertainty and the international commodity market (CRB).

Design/methodology/approach

A composite uncertainty index and five categorical uncertainty indices, together with wavelet analysis and detrended cross-correlation analysis, were used. First, in the time-frequency domain, the coherency and lead-lag relationship between uncertainty and the commodity markets were investigated. Furthermore, the transmission direction of the cross-correlation over different lag periods and asymmetry in this cross-correlation under different trends were identified.

Findings

First, there is significant coherency between uncertainties and CRB mainly in the short and medium terms, with natural disaster and public health uncertainties tending to lead CRB. Second, uncertainty impacts CRB more markedly over shorter lag periods, whereas the impact of CRB on uncertainty gradually increases with longer lag periods. Third, the cross-correlation is asymmetric and multifractal under different trends. Finally, from the perspective of lag periods and trends, the interaction of uncertainty with the Chinese commodity market is significantly different from its interaction with CRB.

Originality/value

First, this study comprehensively constructs a composite uncertainty index based on five types of uncertainty. Second, this study provides a scientific perspective on examining the core and diverse interactions between uncertainty and CRB, as achieved by investigating the interactions of CRB with five categorical and composite uncertainties. Third, this study provides a new research framework to enable multiscale analysis of the complex interaction between uncertainty and the commodity markets.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 June 2021

Adviti Devaguptapu and Pradyumna Dash

In this paper, we study the effect of global energy and food inflation on household inflation expectations during the period 1988M01–2020M03 for a set of European economies.

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, we study the effect of global energy and food inflation on household inflation expectations during the period 1988M01–2020M03 for a set of European economies.

Design/methodology/approach

We use multifractal de-trended cross-correlation analysis to estimate the non-linear and time-varying cross-correlation. We provide additional robustness tests using the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag method.

Findings

We find that household inflation expectations, global energy inflation and global food inflation are all multifractal. We also find that the household inflation expectations, global energy inflation and global food inflation are positively correlated (i.e., they are persistent). However, household inflation expectations respond more when the volatility of the global energy inflation is lower than when the volatility is higher. The correlation between household inflation expectations and global food inflation does not depend on the level of volatility.

Research limitations/implications

First, paying attention to the global commodity inflation might help anchor inflation expectations better. It is so because Central Bank's efficacy in achieving price stability may be weakened if there is a relationship between commodity inflation and inflation expectation. This task would become even more difficult in the average inflation targeting regime than inflation targeting regime if actual inflation is persistently different from the target inflation. Second, our results also emphasize the importance of effective strategy for communicating to households about actual inflation, inflation target and keep them updated about how monetary policy functions.

Originality/value

We contribute to the literature by estimating the cross-correlation between household inflation expectations with the global commodity inflation, conditional to the volatility of the commodity inflation under consideration.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 July 2022

Theodoros Daglis

The COVID-19 pandemic is known to have affected the logistics and supply chains; however, there is no adequate empirical evidence to prove in which way it has affected the…

Abstract

Purpose

The COVID-19 pandemic is known to have affected the logistics and supply chains; however, there is no adequate empirical evidence to prove in which way it has affected the relationship between the stocks related to this field with the corresponding cryptocurrencies. This paper aims to test the dynamic relationship of cryptocurrencies with supply chain and logistics stocks.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the author tests the causal and long-run relationship between logistics and supply chain stocks with the corresponding cryptocurrencies related to these fields, or those that are known to exhibit characteristics that can be utilized by these fields, testing also whether the COVID-19 pandemic affected this relationship. To do so, the author performs the variable-lag causality to test the causal relationship, and examines if this relationship changed due to COVID-19. The author then implements the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis to investigate the characteristics of a possible long-run relationship, testing also whether they changed due to COVID-19.

Findings

The results indicate that there is a positive long-run relationship between each logistics and supply chain stocks and the corresponding cryptocurrencies, before and also during COVID-19, but during COVID-19 this relationship becomes weaker, in most cases. Moreover, before COVID-19, the majority of the cases indicate a causal direction from cryptocurrencies to the stocks, while during COVID-19, the causal relationships decrease in multitude, and most cases unveil a causal direction from the stocks to cryptocurrencies.

Originality/value

The causal pattern changed during COVID-19, and the long-run relationship became weaker, showing a change in the dynamics in the relationship between logistics and supply chain stocks with cryptocurrencies.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 50 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 February 2022

Dimitrios Panagiotou and Alkistis Tseriki

The cross-quantilogram analysis is employed. The latter can assess the temporal association between two stationary time series at different parts of their joint distribution. Data…

Abstract

Purpose

The cross-quantilogram analysis is employed. The latter can assess the temporal association between two stationary time series at different parts of their joint distribution. Data are daily prices and trading volumes from the futures markets of five agricultural commodities, namely, corn, hard red wheat, oats, rice and soybeans.

Design/methodology/approach

The objective to the present work is to investigate for directional predictability between returns and volume (and vice versa) in the futures markets of agricultural commodities.

Findings

The empirical results reveal evidence, weak as well as strong, that extreme low values of returns are likely to lead high levels of volume. There is also weak evidence that extreme low values of volume are likely to precede high values of returns, except for the futures markets of oats where there is very strong evidence that low values of volume are likely to lead high values of returns. For the commodity of soybeans, there is very strong evidence that extreme high levels of volume are likely to lead high values of returns, but they are very short lived.

Research limitations/implications

Agricultural futures have been recently characterized by increased volatility leading hedgers to be looking for diversification. The present findings suggest that when price crashes occur, investors who suffer losses wish to sell, increasing this way the trading activity. Concurrently, the results reveal that extreme low levels of trading volume might signal a possible price turn around for traders.

Originality/value

This is the first study that employs the quantilogram approach in order to investigate for potential predictability from returns to volume and from volume to returns, in the futures markets of agricultural commodities.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 23 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

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