Search results

In this paper, we study the effect of global energy and food inflation on household inflation expectations during the period 1988M01–2020M03 for a set of European economies.

We use multifractal de-trended cross-correlation analysis to estimate the non-linear and time-varying cross-correlation. We provide additional robustness tests using the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag method.

We find that household inflation expectations, global energy inflation and global food inflation are all multifractal. We also find that the household inflation expectations, global energy inflation and global food inflation are positively correlated (i.e., they are persistent). However, household inflation expectations respond more when the volatility of the global energy inflation is lower than when the volatility is higher. The correlation between household inflation expectations and global food inflation does not depend on the level of volatility.

First, paying attention to the global commodity inflation might help anchor inflation expectations better. It is so because Central Bank's efficacy in achieving price stability may be weakened if there is a relationship between commodity inflation and inflation expectation. This task would become even more difficult in the average inflation targeting regime than inflation targeting regime if actual inflation is persistently different from the target inflation. Second, our results also emphasize the importance of effective strategy for communicating to households about actual inflation, inflation target and keep them updated about how monetary policy functions.

We contribute to the literature by estimating the cross-correlation between household inflation expectations with the global commodity inflation, conditional to the volatility of the commodity inflation under consideration.

Information and communication technology (ICT) implementation has demonstrated usefulness in supply chain coordination and efficiency optimization in various industries and sectors. This study investigates the extent of ICT deployment in fruits and vegetable supply chains (FVSC) from “farm-to-fork” to ensure food security.

This paper employs a systematic literature review (SLR) methodology and identified a total of 99 journal articles ranging from 2001 to April 2023 for analysis. The reviewed articles have been classified based on the framework proposed from the perspective of food security. Bibliometric and content analysis is carried out with the final list of articles to extract useful insights.

The findings reveal that ICT implementation in FVSC is a relatively new research area; researchers have started investigating several aspects of ICT in FVSC through varied research methodologies. Experimental research aimed at addressing food safety and condition monitoring of fruits and vegetables (FV) has started to gain traction while theory building is yet to gain traction in the literature reviewed. Findings indicate further research is required on technologies like blockchain (BCT), artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), especially on key objectives such as food security, and the triple-bottom-line approach of sustainability. It also indicates that implementing relevant ICTs in FVSC can help delay, if not avert, the food crisis predicted by Malthusian theory.

This study used only well-established databases to ensure quality of the studies examined. There is a possibility of missing out on articles from other sources not considered. As a result, future SLR studies may employ additional databases, such as Springer Link, Taylor and Francis, Emerald Insight and Google Scholar. Other methodologies such as expert interviews and extra empirical methodologies may also be employed to give a more balanced picture and insights into ICTs implementation in FVSC.

This study offers a summative detail of the status of ICT implementation in FVSC and can serve as a reference guide for stakeholders in developing strategies for efficient FVSC management. This research work highlights the impact of ICT implementation in FVSC on the four pillars of food security which include improved availability, accessibility, utilization and stability.

This study focuses on ICT implementation for food security in FVSC. The SLR highlights the gaps and proffers potential solutions that enhance global efforts on food security through ICT-enabled reduction in food waste and food loss in FVSC.

Derivatives market has been epitomized with gross evil in the wake of the global economic crisis that ensued in 2008. This study argues for more extensive understanding of the phenomena as dynamics previously viewed unrelated now exhibit correlation. As empirical reference, this research relies on recent trends in the commodity futures contracts with analytical relation to the currency exchange rate and by extension the financial and real sectors. With varying intensity often speculative sporadic trading in crude oil, coffee, wheat, rice, sugar, and gold benchmark futures may inflict detrimental effects on the global development efforts. The issue is most acute in the emerging markets facing inflation fears, speculative movements of foreign currency-denominated funds, and underlying domestic currency value. This dynamic reasserts the concept of fundamental uncertainty allowing us to connect the typical risk-return stand with a dialectical unity of the financial, real sector, and social costs. Ultimately, issues raised in this study relate to the problems of social stability and sustained economic development in the postcrisis environment given high frequency and volatility of capital flows. As such, this chapter contributes to the literature that bridges financial empirical analysis with modern socially responsible economic development.

Of late, the issue which has attracted the highest attention in the global scenario is the US–China trade relation, in particular the tariff war. The biggest nations in the world are in war with each other in matters related to trade since 2018. In the first quarter, the United States imposed a tariff which affected many countries like Canada, the EU, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Turkey, and, in developing Asia, India and the People’s Republic of China. This has resulted in a significant dampening of global output growth and growth in emerging nations of Asia. The present chapter seeks to investigate into the historical evidences of trade wars between the United States and China, major reasons responsible for this conflict and tries to figure out the impact of this conflict on fundamental macro variables using secondary time-series data primarily on selected Asian economies including India. The author uses the multiple regression technique to find to what extent changes in the independent variables are responsible in explaining the changes in the dependent variable for both China and the United States. The empirical results clearly show that in the case of China and the United States, an increase in weighted tariff rates (WTR) will lead to a significant decrease in the trade GDP ratio (TGR), whereas in the case of both these countries, Purchasing Power Parity GNI (PPPGNI) is positively and significantly associated in determining TGR. In the case of India, a decrease in WTR is expected to lead to a rise in TGR and it is significant. In case of Vietnam, PPPGNI is significant, but not WTR. In the case of Singapore, neither of the two independent variables is significant.

It has become an ongoing debate whether Indian commodity futures markets can accommodate farmers. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether Indian commodity futures markets help rationalize farmers’ price expectation. The study starts with questions on the efficiency and other roles of commodity futures markets.

From a sectoral standpoint and economic importance, the study considers pepper, coffee, and natural rubber (NR) futures and spot markets. The efficiency of futures markets, divergence/convergence and causality between futures and spot markets have been studied by employing co-integrations, error correction and causality models. The sample period of the data are taken from the inception of futures trading. These three commodities are also compared on the basis of trading at the futures markets vs spot markets.

Analysis shows that though pepper futures market is informationally efficient in price discovery, while coffee and NR spot markets do the process faster. Pepper and coffee futures and spot prices exhibit the convergence; NR shows a sign of divergence. Unidirectional causality from pepper futures to spot market is observed wherein the former was weakly exogenous to the latter and while, bidirectional causality is observed in coffee and rubber. Coffee spot appears weakly exogenous while this remains inconclusive in the case of NR.

The authors analyzed the futures markets in rationalizing the spot market price in three plantation crops in India. In order to make the study more generalizable, further research is warranted in other commodities including those prices of which are government regulated.

The paper is unique in terms of understanding the interaction or interrelationship between futures markets and spot markets and drawing inferences about the role of futures markets in price formation in plantation commodities like pepper, coffee and NR.