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A distinctive feature of mortgages as assets is the existence of prepayment risk, typically viewed as a borrower’s call option to pay the outstanding mortgage balance at any time during the term. While previous research identified important causes for prepayment, these studies are mostly based on fixed‐rate mortgages, with little work on variable‐rate or floating‐rate mortgages and even less work on prepayment in countries other than the USA. This paper presents an analysis of prepayment based on the historical aggregate pre‐payment experience of a sample of variable rate mortgages in Hong Kong, which func‐tions under a Currency Board Mechanism that determines exogenously the level and term structure of interest rates. With variable rate mortgages, it is expected that there will not be a prepayment incentive with decreases in interest rates, unlike the case with fixed‐rate mortgages. However, we argue that observed interest rate movements remain a key factor that affects prepayment decisions, because current interest changes influence expected future interest rates. Furthermore, drawing on quasi‐rational and behavioral economics concepts, we expect the effect on prepayment of expected upward movement in interest rates to be stronger than that of expected downward movements. Empirical evidence from the adjustable rate residential mortgage sample from Hong Kong supports these expected relationships.

In the USA, a substantial literature has emerged to investigate the prepayment behaviour of mortgage borrowers, using loan level data to identify the effects of borrower characteristics. This paper supplements the existing literature in three ways. First, the study looks for the first time at the prepayment behaviour of German mortgage borrowers. Second, it uses a unique Bauspar‐Loan data set consisting of over 55,000 Bauspar‐Loans paid off or prepaid between January 1998 and September 2000. Third, based on the special characteristics of the Bauspar‐Loan, it is possible to identify a portfolio optimizing behaviour as the driving force for prepayment.

Prepayment risk is a key concern in securitized real estate. Using repeat sales in transaction data to proxy for holding period and prepayment, this paper provides the first rigorous analysis of residential mortgage prepayment in Singapore. The prepayment rate for new condominiums is increasing in the holding period and exhibits spikes in the fourth and sixth years. The likelihood of observing a subsequent sale and the prepayment rate increases in floor level, sentiment and other investment return, but decreases in floor area and mortgage rate hikes. Appreciation in the property price also tends to increase the probability and rate of prepayment. In contrast, owners of larger property units and HDB upgraders are less likely to resell their properties. The evidence also suggests that the likelihood of prepayment is lowered after the anti‐speculation measures were introduced in May 1996.

This paper aims to identify factors that affect agricultural mortgage default and prepayment.

Using a sample of farm credit system loans, prepayment and default are modeled as competing risks with potentially non‐stationary covariates using a statistical/econometric technique called survival snalysis (SA).

The analysis suggests that the primary drivers of prepayment and default are the rate of interest charged by the lender at origination and the borrower's current ratio at origination. Tests of the existence of a geographic effect indicate that despite bank management belief to the contrary, branches may not be homogeneous.

This analysis would be improved if more data were available in an easily obtainable manner to control for unobserved heterogeneity. Unobserved heterogeneity or incomplete specification within a model can be problematic. Inferences among regression coefficients can be problematic in that the estimates have inflated variances and unreliable test statistics. In addition, more frequent measures of the time‐varying covariates could be obtained to improve upon the SA models presented above. Future analyses could also incorporate other sections of the agricultural credit association portfolio, as well as a comparison to variable rate notes. One other logical next step would be to obtain loan collateral values to obtain estimates of the exposure at default, and the loss given default, or the estimates needed for the advanced internal ratings based approach described in the Basel Accords.

This paper provides a method for lenders to measure and model mortgage termination, an important consideration for risk managers when determining capital adequacy described in the Basel Accords.

The purpose of this paper is to identify effects of prepayment risk on performance of commercial banks in the USA. Understanding how various risks impact banks' performance can help to improve performance of financial institutions and better estimate risk premia charged by banks on the loans they extend to their customers.

The paper measures the prepayment risk premium and aims to gauge its effect on various ratios that measure bank performance. Since, risk management is an important goal of financial management, it is important to learn how prepayment risk pertains to bank performance.

The results of this paper suggest that prepayment risk may significantly impact return on loans, return on equity and real estate loans to total loans ratios of various commercial banks. The impacts, in terms of strength and direction, vary between the periods of pre‐ and post‐passage of the Financial Institutions Reform and Recovery Act. The results indicate that the addition of prepayment risk variable to regression models can generally increase their ability to explain bank performance metrics.

To the authors' knowledge, there is no existing literature that gauges the impact of prepayment risk on various components of bank performance. There is existing literature that shows that bank stocks move in response to prepayment risk.

This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment affects the determinants of prepayment of mortgage loans from October 2004 to February 2020. For more accurate analysis, the authors define the timing of prepayment not only before the loan maturity but also at the time when 50% or more of the loan principal is repaid. The results show that, during the global financial crisis as well as the recent period of low interest rates, macroeconomic variables such as interest rate spreads and housing prices have a different effect compared to the normal situation. Also, significant explanatory variables, such as debt to income (DTI) ratio, loan amount ratio and poor credit score, have different effects depending on the macroenvironment. On the other hand, in all periods, the possibility of prepayment increases as comprehensive loan to value (CLTV) increases, and the younger the age, the shorter the loan maturity. The results suggest that, in the case of ultralong (40 years) mortgage loans recently introduced to support young people purchasing houses, the prepayment risk can be, at least partially, migrated by offsetting the increase in prepayment by young people and the decrease in prepayment due to long loan maturity. In addition, this study confirms that the accelerated time failure model compared to the logit model and COX proportional risk model has the potential to be more appropriate as a prepayment model for individual borrower analysis in terms of the explanatory power.

This paper alters the traditional model of valuation by introducing trinomial trees, and determines the difference between the traditional plain‐vanilla, adjustable‐rate mortgages and cash rebate mortgages. By presenting an economic model for studying the combined effects of mortgage value by prepayment, delinquency, default, and cure speed, the model builds a simulation program to generate different cash flow scenarios. The results indicate that the value of cash rebate mortgages is higher than that of standard mortgages, although they are more sensitive to embedded options. If the probability of exercising an option is higher, then the value of cash rebate mortgages will drop at a faster rate than that of standard mortgages.

In October 2008, in the midst of a financial crisis, Anthony Keating, investment manager at the Boston private bank Billingsley, Blaylock, and Montgomery, was searching for an investment strategy to recommend to his high-net-worth clients. Traditional investments in the equity markets were being decimated, and Keating’s clients would be looking to him for ideas. Inspired by the success of Paulson and Co., Keating began to explore the possibility of entering a trade that would profit as homeowners defaulted on their mortgages. The more Keating learned about the trade, the more he realized that he needed to know about mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps. The case provides instructors with a chance to introduce these financial instruments, while at the same time providing lessons applicable to students interested in value investing or real estate finance.

After reading and analyzing the case, students will be able to:

• Explain how home mortgages are securitized into financial instruments that are traded in public markets

• Describe how credit default swaps can be used to speculate on the value of an underlying financial instrument

• Identify potential mispricing across related financial instruments

• Understand the potential risks and rewards of various financial investment strategies that look to capitalize on defaults on subprime mortgages

Explain how home mortgages are securitized into financial instruments that are traded in public markets

Describe how credit default swaps can be used to speculate on the value of an underlying financial instrument

Identify potential mispricing across related financial instruments

Understand the potential risks and rewards of various financial investment strategies that look to capitalize on defaults on subprime mortgages

The aim of this paper is to develop the optimal delta hedge for a portfolio of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) under the constraint of a zero‐gamma in order to avoid costs related to the rebalancing of such portfolio.

The paper develops the optimal delta hedge ratio with gamma and vega constraints for an MSR portfolio by finding the different combinations of coupon/maturity bonds (c, n) that satisfy the constraints under different yields (y). Rather than search for the available fixed income securities and see by trial and error which one should be added to the portfolio of MSR such that when market rates go up and down, the value of the portfolio is not affected, the model finds the optimal pairs of coupon/maturity bonds over a range of yields, that satisfy the constraints. It develops the conditions for a delta‐hedged portfolio of bonds and MSR under an investor's or a portfolio manager's value constraint K. The share α of the MSR's value and the share β of the bond's value had to be such that a zero‐delta portfolio that satisfies the constant value of the portfolio can be created. The paper “optimized” α by requiring simultaneously that α′=0 and also that α″=0, for a fixed y given by the market that will guarantee that the function α satisfies simultaneously the two conditions: α′=0 and α″=0. These two conditions will yield equations in the parameters of c and n. The “optimization” problem for arbitrary y's is solved, and n and c for the appropriate bond are found to be added to the MSR portfolio.

Maple software is used to simulate a portfolio of MSR that is delta hedged with bonds, whose appropriate coupon and maturity are found with the model developed under the constraint of a zero‐gamma, in order to avoid costs related to the rebalancing of such portfolio. The optimal hedge ratio with gamma and vega constraints for an MSR portfolio is developed by finding the different combinations of coupon/maturity bonds that satisfy the constraints under different yields (the “triples”).

The optimal triples (c, n, y) are obtained in order to optimize α and simultaneously α′=0 and α″=0. For example, for a yield of 16.1 percent, a bank with a portfolio of MSR based on the data used, should add to it, bonds with a 6.33 percent coupon that matures in 7.55 years.

This paper is the first to the authors' knowledge to derive the different triples (yield, coupon, maturity) of bonds that when combined with MSR create a portfolio that is dynamically hedged against interest rate risk and prepayment risk, and therefore eliminates the need of periodic rebalancing of a portfolio of MSR, which is costly.