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The learning outcomes of this paper are as follows: to understand the context of seaport logistics and supply chain design structure, to apply Monte Carlo simulation in the interface of the supply chain and to analyze the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm and statistical techniques for identifying the key seaport logistics factors.

It was 9:00 p.m. on November 10, 2020, and Nishadh Amonkar, the CEO of OCTO supply chain management (SCM) was glued to the television watching the final cricket match of the Indian Premier League, 2020. Amonkar’s mobile phone rang and it was a call from Vinod Nair, a member Logistics Panel of Ranji Industries Federation. Nair informed Amonkar that it was related to the rejection of several export consignments of agricultural products from Ranji (in the western part of India). The rejection was due to the deterioration in the quality of the exported agricultural products during transit from Ranji to various locations in Europe.

This course is suitable at the MBA level for the following courses: Operations research (Focus/Session: Applications on Monte Carlo Simulation). SCM (Focus/Session: Global SCM, Logistics Planning, Distribution Network). Logistics management (Focus/Session: Transportation Planning). Business statistics (Focus/Session: Application of Hypothesis Testing).

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS 9: Operations and logistics.

1. Probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions

2. Decision tree to find the expected monetary value (EMV) of different options.

3. Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis.

4. Risk analysis in project management.

Learners will be able to understand and apply the following: how to approach uncertainty in business decisions using probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions; how to address uncertainty in business decisions by looking forward and reasoning backward, using the decision tree technique and the EMV of different decisions; how to analyse the risk inherent in business decisions by incorporating probability distributions for all critical variables in the form of Monte Carlo simulation; and appreciation of strategic considerations in risk analysis as it applies to project management

The case describes the challenge facing Vilas Birari, the owner and chief executive of Harsh Constructions, a construction company headquartered in Nasik, India. Birari had to decide on the bid for a construction project in September of 2021, during the COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic. Due to successive waves of the pandemic, the state and federal governments announced lockdowns intermittently, causing uncertainty in costs related to labor, material and project completion. The dilemma before Birari was how to set a bid price that was not so low as to incur a loss and not so high as to lose the bid to competitors. The uncertainty made Birari’s decision-making complex. The case invites students to help Birari find an optimum bid price by using various quantitative techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.

This case is intended for students of management at a master’s level, in an elective course on management science, which is often also known as decision science. This compact case can be positioned in the second half of the course, when exploring risk management using computer simulation as a tool. The case serves both as an introduction to using simulation to manage uncertainty as well a contrast with simpler methods that are covered earlier in the course.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 7: Management Science.

Financial management, corporate finance, strategic management, managerial accounting and project management.

The case is suitable for courses such as MBA, Bachelor level business courses (in finance, business strategy) and training programs for working executives.

The case study deals with financial and strategic appraisal of a unique coal-to-liquid project. India imported about two thirds of its crude oil requirements resulting in huge outflow of precious foreign exchange. As a result, it became necessary for the country to look for alternative sources of energy. The coal-to-liquid (CTL) technology of coal gasification offers a credible alternative source of fuels as proved by Sasol of South Africa. The Government of India short-listed Global Synfuels Company (name changed) as one of the selected few companies to build a CTL project. While the project is strategically important to the company and highly desirable for the country, there are serious doubts about the commercial viability of the project because of which the company is in dilemma whether to go ahead with the project. The case study presents this decision dilemma in a very interesting way and will be useful for teaching courses in corporate finance and strategic management.

The case can be used to engage participants to make a SWOT analysis for a new business opportunity, discuss environmental and financial issues facing a company, use DCF techniques to evaluate the project viability, carry out scenario analysis of the project to the changes in variables as well as challenge the participants to generate strategies for the success of a new project. Participants would also develop a better understanding of: environmental issues involved in CTL projects and new technologies to deal with such issues; and the employment impact of large projects such as the CTL.

Teaching notes are available; please consult your librarian for access.

Republic Electric is faced with the need to engage in a systematic process of evaluating vendors for its just-in-time manufacturing. The case gives students the opportunity to think through the process for vendor selection in the context of real-world constraints for a specific organization, to become acquainted with the Delphi technique for developing consensus, to gain hands-on experience with linear averaging, to engage in calculations of value indexes, and to recognize the marketing implications of effectively evaluating vendors. A key takeaway for students is the fact that vendor selection decisions are multifaceted and will vary among organizations depending on each organization’s particular strategic needs, operational constraints, and human judgment.

The case is based upon a consulting assignment with the company that is represented by Republic Electric. The experience was gained first-hand by one of the authors.

This case is targeted at undergraduate students in marketing, materials management, supply chain management, and purchasing, but can work well in a variety of business courses in which supply chains or the development of evaluation tools is studied, to include graduate classes.

The concept of vendor assessment is well developed in the literature and represents a pragmatic, but often neglected, step in the practice of choosing suppliers.

Via this case, students are introduced to several alternative methods of valuation, including the valuation based on the “real options” theory. The novelty of the case is the link between valuation and the type of innovation that the company represents. The suggested valuation frameworks, which include both quantitative and qualitative assessments, are applicable not only in the context of an IPO valuation but also in the context of any kind of M&A activity.

This case was prepared mostly via secondary research. All the information about Uber and the industry was collected via publicly available sources. No internal documents of the company were used in the preparation of this case. The primary research consisted of an interview with the protagonist Catherine (whose name is disguised). Other disguised elements in the case include the name of the Value Investor conference organizer (Spyros Spyrou, not his real name), the country of the Value Investor conference (omitted) and the conference venue (Princess hotel, not any actual venue).

In 2019, Uber, the famous ride-sharing company, made waves in financial markets as the most controversial IPO valuation. With a wide range of proposed values, Uber puzzled investors, once again living up to its fame of a rebel and a disruptor. When Uber finally went public in May 2019, its IPO valuation stood at $82.4bn. The heated discussion in the media continued even after the IPO: “Is Uber worth this amount? Is there an upside potential for the investors who bought shares at the IPO price? What if this is a hype and markets are simply embracing higher valuations?”

This case can be used at the undergraduate, graduate (MBA) or executive level in finance-related courses such as Company Valuation or Valuing Innovation, which cover the topic of valuation and specifically the topic of valuing innovative companies.

The COO for Suape Container Terminal, the largest deep–water port in Brazil's Northeast must consider a proposal presented by the users' council that calls for the establishment of a reservation scheme that minimizes the risk of docking delays. Under this proposal, ocean carriers, on the one hand, agree to pay a reservation fee that significantly increases revenue for Tecon Suape. On the other hand, they expect Tecon Suape to compensate them financially when a berth is not available upon vessel arrival. Tecon Suape's management team must evaluate that suggestion, as the team prepares to enter contractual negotiations with the users.

Financial management – Specifically start-up valuations.

Honours or masters level (professional or academic).

The case is around a tech start-up in the informal transport market in South Africa, that has obtained some government funding and developed a working SaaS. However, requires funding to expand and grow. Informal transport is significant in emerging and developing markets and the product is portable internationally. In South Africa, two listed companies (US and SA) were started with similar concepts in Logistics and private client market and are now global in 124 and 24 countries. Management of the venture capital firm are senior and experienced and have invested years and funding into this company, and while willing to offer equity had quite a high value in mind, the venture capital company (with an impact mandate) needs to decide whether to fund the start-up and negotiate a value.

Characteristics of a successful start-up are formulating an appropriate discount rate, using real world data; performing a DCF and relative valuations given limited information; scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis; and the importance of negotiating (understanding managements side).

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

This case was written for use in financial management classes in either an academic full-time student (final year undergraduate/bachelor) or a postgraduate program with working students/professional (MBA) program level.

CSS: 1: Accounting and finance.

The Waldorf property is a tract of land whose development value is uncertain. One acre must be preserved as wetlands: The seller claims that it is too small an amount, and the Corps of Engineers indicates that it could be large enough. The case offers students the opportunity to apply the tools of pro forma cash-flow forecasting, electronic-spreadsheet modeling, decision analysis, and discounted cash flow and to wrestle with risk aversion and develop creative alternatives for reducing the uncertainty.

After completing this case, students should be able to: identify and compute relevant cash flows in relation to a real estate project and compute the net present value (NPV). Determine the target return or cost of capital (by looking at historical economic indicators). Design or formulate a sensitivity analysis to determine the drivers of the project value. Evaluate real estate and other investments taking qualitative and quantitative factors into consideration. Demonstrate the computation of a break-even rate to determine the minimum or maximum revenue or cost required for a project to be viable.

This case study is about the Golden Beak Securities Pension Fund that wanted to invest in a Hostel Project in one of the universities in Ghana. Most universities in Ghana faced an acute shortage of on-campus accommodation. Also, the Government of Ghana, in 2017, implemented a programme to make Senior High School in Ghana free. This was expected to increase the number of students who will enter the existing universities. The project was therefore seen as strategic, as it would help ease the pressure of on-campus accommodation while providing diversification for the pension fund. As part of the investment committee’s (IC) quest to improve the skill set available to it, especially in relation to real estate investments, Esi Abebrese was appointed as one of the members of the IC of GSB. Her main task was to collect information on key macroeconomic variables, as well as granular information on project costs and revenues and conduct investment appraisal. Esi was scheduled to make a presentation to the IC on the 15th of October 2019 following which the Committee will debate and make a decision. The project had an estimated cost of GH¢52m with a total number of 3,424 student beds and ancillary facilities. Undertaking the project required moving funds from investments in money market securities with one of the banks in Ghana. The investments in the money market securities were currently yielding about 16% a year. The determination of the cost of capital was critical and Esi and Nana eventually settled on a long-term weighted average cost of capital of 14%. This was after considering the trend of inflation, monetary policy rates, treasury rates, stock market returns and a report on returns on commercial real estate properties in Ghana. An exit capitalisation rate of 20% was also estimated for the purposes of determining the value of the property at the end of the investment horizon. Esi also obtained estimates of cost and revenue for the project and proceeded to carry out a feasibility analysis on the project. This consisted of an NPV analysis and sensitivity analysis on various factors to determine the drivers of the project value. The IC had to take several factors (both quantitative and qualitative) into consideration before making a decision. Esi believed that these factors included the diversification of the fund’s assets, the return on investment, potential oversupply of hostel accommodation, the social responsibility of providing student accommodation and the impact of any prolonged shutdown of the university.

Masters/advanced undergraduate.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

CSS 1: Accounting and Finance.