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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 February 2018

Ali Murad Syed and Ishtiaq Ahmad Bajwa

This study aims to find the response by stock market against the announcements of quarterly earnings is empirically tested by exploiting event study methodology. Efficient market

19959

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to find the response by stock market against the announcements of quarterly earnings is empirically tested by exploiting event study methodology. Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) on Saudi stock exchange is also tried on.

Design/methodology/approach

The market model is applied to help gauge the expected returns and to illustrate abnormal returns around the event date.

Findings

The results established that Saudi Stock Market does not bear semi-strong form of EMH. How efficient is the Saudi market is also reflected through evidence of significant abnormal returns and post-earnings announcement drift around earning announcements dates.

Research limitations/implications

The authors have not used analysts’ forecast as the expected earnings which are the limitation. As mentioned earlier, the authors used the quarterly earnings of the previous year as a proxy and that proxy could have been replaced by analysts’ forecast. Another limitation is that the trading volume in the event window is not considered.

Practical implications

The behavior of Saudi capital market is of much concern, and the study of this with a perspective of EMH is the significance of this paper.

Social implications

All stakeholders closely watch earnings announcements and its share price movement around the announcement date. Recently, Saudi Arabia has opened its doors to foreign investors, and big foreign investors are going to enter into Saudi capital market, and after their entry, the behavior of market could be different. In the authors’ opinion, this is the right time to study the efficiency of Saudi market before the entry of foreign investors.

Originality/value

This study is based on the gap created by EMH of Saudi market using event methodology, observed in the existing literature, and it will be a contribution to literature.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 June 2023

Sajid Ali, Syed Ali Raza and Komal Akram Khan

This research paper aims to explore asymmetric market efficiency of the 13 Euro countries, i.e. Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherland…

Abstract

Purpose

This research paper aims to explore asymmetric market efficiency of the 13 Euro countries, i.e. Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain, concerning the period before global financial crisis (GFC), after GFC and period of COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is applied to examine the persistence and anti-persistency. It also discusses the random walk behavior hypothesis of these 13 countries non-stationary time series. Additionally, generalized Hurst exponents are applied to estimate the relative efficiency between short- and long-run horizons and small and large fluctuations.

Findings

The current study results suggest that most countries' markets are multifractal and exhibit long-term persistence in the short and long run. Moreover, the results with respect to full sample confirm that Portugal is the most efficient country in short run and Austria is the least efficient country. However, in long run, Austria appeared to be highly efficient, and Slovakia is the least efficient. In the pre-GFC period, Greece is said to be the relatively most efficient market in the short run, whereas Austria is the most efficient market in the long run. In the case of Post-GFC, Netherland and Ireland are the most efficient markets in short and long run, respectively. Lastly, COVID-19 results indicate that Finland's stock market is the most efficient in short run. Whereas, in the long run, the high efficiency is illustrated by Germany. In contrast, the most affected stock market due to COVID-19 is Belgium.

Originality/value

This study will add value to the present knowledge on efficient market hypothesis (EMH) with the MF-DFA approach. Also, with the MF-DFA approach, potential investors will be capable of ranking the stock markets of Eurozone countries based on their efficiency in the period before and after GFC and then specifically in the period of COVID-19.

研究目的

本研究旨在探討13個歐元區國家在環球金融危機前後, 以及2019新型冠狀病毒病肆虐時期之不對稱市場效率; 這13個國家包括: 奧地利、比利時、芬蘭、法國、德國、希臘、愛爾蘭、義大利、荷蘭、葡萄牙、斯洛伐克、斯洛維尼亞和西班牙。

研究設計/方法/理念

研究人員使用多重分形去趨勢波動分析法、來探討持續性與反持續性。這分析法也用來討論正在研究中的13個國家的非平穩時間序列的隨機漫步假說; 而且, 廣義赫斯特指數被用來估算長期/短期投資與大/小波動之間的相對效率。

研究結果

研究結果間接表明了大部份國家的市場都是多重分形的; 而且, 它們無論以短期抑或以長期來審視觀察, 均能展示持久性。再者, 就整體樣本而言, 研究結果確認了在短期來看, 葡萄牙是效率最高的國家, 而奧地利則效率最低。唯以長期來審視觀察, 奧地利則似乎效率很高, 而效率最低的則是斯洛伐克。在環球金融危機爆發前, 就短期而言, 希臘被認為是相對效率最高的市場, 而長期而言, 效率最高的則是奧地利。至於在環球金融危機爆發後, 就短期而言, 荷蘭是效率最高的市場, 而就長期而言, 效率最高的則是愛爾蘭。最後, 2019新型冠狀病毒病的結果顯示, 就短期而言, 荷蘭的股票市場是效率最高的, 而長期而言, 德國則展示了其高效率性。而受疫情影響最大的股票市場則是比利時。

研究的原創性/價值

研究採用了多重分形去趨勢波動分析法、來探討股票市場的效率, 並以此分析法來討論有關國家的非平穩時間序列的隨機漫步假說, 這使我們對效率市場假說有進一步的認識; 就此而言, 本研究為有關的探討增添價值; 而且, 有意投資者在使用多重分形去趨勢波動分析法下, 能夠基於歐元區國家的股票市場在環球金融危機前後, 以及更明確地在2019新型冠狀病毒病肆虐時期的效率, 來把這些股票市場分等級。

關鍵詞

環球金融危機、2019新型冠狀病毒病、效率市場假說、多重分形去趨勢波動分析.

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 May 2021

A.N. Vijayakumar

Transparent and fair price discovery is essential to commodity market participants in the trade value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate…

2928

Abstract

Purpose

Transparent and fair price discovery is essential to commodity market participants in the trade value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the price discovery of Indian cardamom at e-auction, spot and futures markets in addition to the existence of the day of the week effect at e-auction apart from exploring a novel price risk management framework.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used Johansen co-integration, vector error correction model, Granger causality and regression with dummy variables to understand a day of the week effect in high-value agri-commodity of cardamom e-auction prices. These price data were based on authenticated sources of Spices Board India and Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

Findings

The statistical results indicate price discovery exists in the e-auction market and it leads to spot and futures prices. cardamom e-auction prices are negatively related to cardamom futures and positively related to spot prices. It also finds the non-existence of the day of the week effect in the high-value cardamom e-auction system in India. The study revealed that a cardamom e-auction is more active in price discovery than a cardamom futures contract.

Research limitations/implications

These results shall facilitate policymakers to explore intervention of online forward market mechanism at the national level to ensure price discovery and market efficiency. However, the study did not explore reasons for the non-equilibrium of a cardamom futures contract with spot and e-auction market.

Practical implications

The results of this study are useful in understanding the price discovery of cardamom e-auction and its role in the spot and futures market. Cardamom price discovery depends upon the e-auction system; any change of auction policy shall be binding on Indian cardamom prices. The introduction of an online forward market mechanism as described in the paper shall facilitate price risk management apart from improving the efficiency of price discovery.

Originality/value

This is the first study considering cardamom e-auction, spot and futures prices in the price discovery process in India. Statistical results of a day of the week effect clearly show no significant volatility of cardamom prices during the week. Besides, this study did not find the role of cardamom futures contracts intended to serve the economic function of price discovery and price risk management. Hence, suggests policy intervention for implementing an online Forward Market mechanism for Indian cardamom to ensure market efficiency and manage price risk.

Details

Vilakshan - XIMB Journal of Management, vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0973-1954

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 August 2023

Marco Aurélio dos Santos, Luiz Paulo Lopes Fávero, Talles Vianna Brugni and Ricardo Goulart Serra

This study’s goal was to identify how several markets have developed over time and what determinants have influenced this process, based on adaptive markets hypothesis (AMH). In…

1075

Abstract

Purpose

This study’s goal was to identify how several markets have developed over time and what determinants have influenced this process, based on adaptive markets hypothesis (AMH). In this regard, the authors consider that agents are driven by the seeking for abnormal returns to stay “alive” and their environment could somehow modify their decision-making processes, as well as influence the degree of efficiency of the market.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors collected the daily closing-of-the-market index from 50 countries, between 1990 and 2022. The sample includes emerging countries, developed countries and frontier markets. Then, the authors ran multilevel modeling using Hurst exponent as an informational efficiency metric estimated by two different moving windows: 500 and 1,250 observations (approximately 2 and 5 years).

Findings

The results indicate that the efficiency of the markets is not constant over time. The authors also have identified that markets follow a cyclical pattern of efficiency/inefficiency, and they are currently in a period of convergence to efficiency, possibly explained by the increase in computational capacity and speed of the available information to agents. In addition, this study identified that country characteristics are associated with market efficiency, considering institutional factors.

Originality/value

Studies of this nature contribute to the literature, considering the importance of better comprehension of market efficiency dynamics and their determinants, specially observing other theories on the relationship between information and markets (like AMH), which work with other investor assumptions than those used by efficient market hypothesis.

Details

Revista de Gestão, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1809-2276

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 April 2022

Rajesh Elangovan, Francis Gnanasekar Irudayasamy and Satyanarayana Parayitam

Despite volumes of research on the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) over the last six decades, the results are inconclusive as some studies supported the hypothesis, and some…

4397

Abstract

Purpose

Despite volumes of research on the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) over the last six decades, the results are inconclusive as some studies supported the hypothesis, and some studies rejected it. The study aims to examine the market efficiency of the Indian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

For analysis, nine Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) broad market indices were selected covering the study period from 01 January 2011 to 31 December 2020. The data collected for this study are daily open, high, low and closing prices of selected indices. The tools used in this study are: (1) unit root test to check the stationarity of time series, (2) descriptive statistics, (3) autocorrelation and (4) runs test.

Findings

The empirical findings of the study reveal that BSE broad market indices do not follow a random walk and Indian stock market is as weak-form inefficient.

Research limitations/implications

The findings from this study provide several avenues for future research. One of the research implications is that anomalies in the statistical results by different academicians in the finance area need to be explained by future researchers.

Practical implications

Investment companies need to understand that extraordinary skills are required to beat the market to make abnormal returns. In an inefficient market where securities do not reflect the complete available information, it is challenging for the investment brokers to convince the customers about the portfolios they recommend to the public that the rate of return would be more than expected.

Social implications

As economic growth is related to the growth in the financial sector, developing countries like India depend on the accuracy of the information. In the presence of asymmetric information, the fluctuations in the stock market would have serious harmful consequences on the economy.

Originality/value

Amid several controversies surrounding the EMH testing, this study is a modest attempt to provide evidence that the Indian stock market is in weak-form inefficient. However, it is essential to link investors' behaviour and trends observed in the financial sector to fully understand the implications of EMH.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 27 no. 54
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2218-0648

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 June 2021

Shreya Sharda

This study aims to evaluate the short-term impact of brokerage analysts’ recommendations on abnormal returns using a sample selected from the S&P BSE 100 in the Indian context…

2353

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to evaluate the short-term impact of brokerage analysts’ recommendations on abnormal returns using a sample selected from the S&P BSE 100 in the Indian context. The efficient market hypothesis, specifically, its semi-strong form, is tested for “Buy” stock recommendations published in the electronic version of Business Standard. The crucial issue is, are there any abnormal returns that can be earned following a recommendation? If so, how quickly do prices incorporate the information value of these recommendations? It tests the impact of analyst recommendations on average abnormal returns (AARs) and standardized abnormal returns (SRs) to determine their statistical significance.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a sample of stock recommendations published in the e-version of Business Standard, the event study methodology is used to determine whether AARs and SRs are significantly different from zero for the duration of the event window by using several significance tests.

Findings

The findings indicate a marginal opportunity for profit in the short term, restricted to the event day. However, the effect does not persist, i.e. the market is efficient in its semi-strong form implying that investors cannot consistently earn abnormal returns by following analysts’ recommendations. Post the event date, the market reaction to analyst recommendations becomes positive, however, insignificant until the ninth day after the recommendation providing support to the underreaction hypothesis given by Shliefer (2000) and post-recommendation price drift documented by Womack (1996). The study contributes by using different statistical tests to determine the significance of returns.

Practical implications

There are important implications for traders, investors and portfolio managers. The speed with which market prices incorporate publicly available information is useful in formulating trading strategies. However, stock characteristics such as market capitalization, volatility and level of analyst coverage need to be incorporated while making investment decisions.

Originality/value

The study contributes by using different statistical tests to determine the significance of returns.

Details

Vilakshan - XIMB Journal of Management, vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0973-1954

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 June 2024

Sirui Han, Haitian Lu and Hao Wu

Our analysis is targeted at researchers in the fields of economics and finance, and we place emphasis on the incremental contributions of each paper, key research questions, study

Abstract

Purpose

Our analysis is targeted at researchers in the fields of economics and finance, and we place emphasis on the incremental contributions of each paper, key research questions, study methodology, main conclusions and data and identification tactics. By focusing on these critical areas, our review seeks to provide valuable insights and guidance for future research in this rapidly evolving and complex field.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper conducts a structured literature review (SLR) of Bitcoin-related articles published in the leading finance, economics and accounting journals between 2018 and 2023. Following Massaro et al. (2016), SLR is a method for examining a corpus of scholarly work to generate new ideas, critical reflections and future research agendas. The goals of SLR are congruent with the three outcomes of critical management research identified by Alvesson and Deetz (2000): insight, critique and transformative redefinition.

Findings

The present state of research on Bitcoin lacks coherence and interconnectedness, leading to a limited understanding of the underlying mechanisms. However, certain areas of research have emerged as significant topics for further exploration. These include the decentralized payment system, equilibrium price, market microstructure, trading patterns and regulation of Bitcoin. In this context, this review serves as a valuable starting point for researchers who are unacquainted with the interdisciplinary field of bitcoin and blockchain research. It is essential to recognize the potential value of research in Bitcoin-related fields in advancing knowledge of the interaction between finance, economics, law and technology. Therefore, future research in this area should focus on adopting innovative and interdisciplinary methods to enhance our comprehension of these intricate and evolving technologies.

Originality/value

Our review encompasses the latest research on Bitcoin, including its market microstructure, trading behavior, price patterns and portfolio analysis. It explores Bitcoin's market microstructure, liquidity, derivative markets, price discovery and market efficiency. Studies have also focused on trading behavior, investors' characteristics, market sentiment and price volatility. Furthermore, empirical studies demonstrate the advantages of including Bitcoin in a portfolio. These findings enhance our understanding of Bitcoin's potential impact on the financial industry.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 26 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 May 2021

Fernanda Pagin, Matheus da Costa Gomes, Rafael Moreira Antônio, Tabajara Pimenta Júnior and Luiz Eduardo Gaio

This paper aims to identify if there is an impact of the rating announcements issued by the agencies on the returns of the stocks of Brazilian companies listed on Brasil Bolsa…

1052

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to identify if there is an impact of the rating announcements issued by the agencies on the returns of the stocks of Brazilian companies listed on Brasil Bolsa Balcão, from August 2002 to August 2018, identifying which types of announcement (upgrade, downgrade or the same initial classification) cause variations in prices around the date of disclosure of the rating.

Design/methodology/approach

The event study methodology was applied to verify the market reaction around the announcement dates in a 21-day event window (−10, +10). The market model was used to calculate the abnormal returns (ARs), and subsequently, the accumulated ARs.

Findings

The hypotheses tests allowed to verify that the accumulated ARs are different, before and after the three types of rating announcements (upgrades, downgrades and the same classification); in upgrades, the mean of accumulated ARs increases in the days before the event, while in downgrades, this increase occurs after the event. This paper concluded that the rating announcements have an impact on the return of stock of the Brazilian market and that the market reaction occurs most of the time before the event happens, which indicates that the market can anticipate the information contained in the changes in credit ratings.

Practical implications

The results have considerable implications for portfolio managers, institutional investors and traders. It facilitates investment decision-making in the face of rating classification announcements. Market participants can pay more attention to their investment strategies and asset allocation during periods of risk rating announcements. Additionally, traders can understand the form of investment strategy for superior earnings.

Originality/value

The importance of the study is related to the fact that the results may explain the causes of specific movements in the Brazilian financial market related to a source of information that may or may not be able to influence the decisions of the financial agents that operate in this market. The justification is centred on the idea that, for investors who somehow react to the announcements, it is relevant to understand the impact of rating classifications on companies, as access to such information allows for more conscious decision-making.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 26 no. 51
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 December 2020

Sudipta Kumar Nanda and Parama Barai

This paper investigates if investors consider legal insider trading data while making investment decisions. If any investment decision is based on insider transactions, then it…

7344

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates if investors consider legal insider trading data while making investment decisions. If any investment decision is based on insider transactions, then it will result in abnormal stock characteristics. The purpose of this paper is to investigate if insider trading affects stock characteristics like price, return and volume. The paper further investigates the effect on stock characteristics after the trade of different types of insiders and the relationship between abnormal return and abnormal volume.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the event study method to measure the abnormal price, return and volume. Two-stage least square regression is used to investigate the relationship between abnormal return and abnormal volume.

Findings

The insider trades affect price, return and volume. The results are identical for both buy and sell transactions. The trades of different types of insiders have diverse effects on stock characteristics. The trades of substantial shareholders give rise to the highest abnormal price and return, whereas the promoters' trades result in the highest abnormal volume. No relationship is detected between abnormal return and volume.

Originality/value

A novel method to calculate the abnormal price is proposed. The effect of trading of all types of insiders on stock characteristics is analyzed. The relationship between abnormal return and abnormal volume, after an insider trade, is investigated.

Details

Asian Journal of Accounting Research, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2443-4175

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 September 2024

Khalid Rasheed Al-Adeem

In countries where disclosing and reporting matters on sustainability are optional, what are the drivers promoting voluntarily disclosing information related to social…

Abstract

Purpose

In countries where disclosing and reporting matters on sustainability are optional, what are the drivers promoting voluntarily disclosing information related to social responsibility and environmental sustainability corporate environmental and social responsibility? Exploring drivers promoting the demand for voluntarily disclosing information related to social responsibility and environmental sustainability in Saudi Arabia, where regulatory and professional bodies have not mandated information on corporate environmental and social responsibility, motivates this study.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 48 individuals voluntarily participated in the survey.

Findings

Findings reveal that creating a better social, ethical and mental image, building a public relations image for the company, improving stakeholder trust in the company, signaling to investors the company’s care for the earth to meet the ethical motivation of stakeholders, enhancing corporate social responsibility awareness and exhibiting surpasses the mere generation of profits, all derive such disclosure. Such disclosure also signifies the firm’s value as well as improves the overall firm’s economic performance.

Practical implications

Regulatory and professional bodies must issue and adopt reporting models for entities, principally private companies, whether publicly traded or not, of the content. Their reports should aim to inform users and stakeholders about fulfilling the social and environmental responsibilities of entities toward society and its members.

Social implications

Out of the drivers for the demand, perceptions of elders toward meeting ethical motivation of senior management significantly differ from that of younger.

Originality/value

Few studies have been attempted on drivers of the demand for reporting environmental sustainability and social responsibility in an environment where such reporting is not mandated. This study offers insight from Saudi Arabian corporate reports.

Details

Journal of Ethics in Entrepreneurship and Technology, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2633-7436

Keywords

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