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The purpose of this study is to examine two issues, namely the degree of current account deficit (CAD) sustainability and the degree of capital mobility.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine two issues, namely the degree of current account deficit (CAD) sustainability and the degree of capital mobility.
Design/methodology/approach
The sample for this study comprises 24 Latin American and Caribbean countries, including three regional agreements: Andean Community, MERCOSUR (Mercado Común del Sur), and SICA (Central American Integration System). This study employs the dynamic common correlated effects mean group (DCCEMG) estimator in a panel data set to investigate the long-run relationship between savings and investment along with short-run dynamics.
Findings
The findings indicate that CAD is weakly sustainable in the Latin American and Caribbean region, MERCOSUR, and SICA, while CAD is strongly unsustainable in the Andean Community. The sub-period analysis reveals that CAD has been adversely affected by the 2008 crisis. However, in the post-crisis period, CAD has been slowly decreasing in the Latin American and Caribbean region and Andean Community, whereas CAD has continued increasing in MERCOSUR and SICA. Further, the estimates of error-correction terms and short-run coefficients indicate that the Andean Community and MERCOSUR observe a higher degree of long-run and short-run capital mobility than SICA.
Practical implications
The results carry fundamental implications for policy-making processes aimed at maintaining sustainable CADs.
Originality/value
This study gives an alternative interpretation of the “Feldstein-Horioka” coefficient in terms of CAD sustainability and analyses the saving–investment relationship in light of Chudik and Pesaran (2015).
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Madhur Bhatia and Rachita Gulati
The purpose of the paper is to explore the long-run impact of board governance and bank performance on executive remuneration. More specifically, the study addresses two…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the paper is to explore the long-run impact of board governance and bank performance on executive remuneration. More specifically, the study addresses two objectives. First, the authors investigate the long-run relationship between pay and performance hold for the Indian banking industry. Second, the authors explore the moderating role of the board in explaining the relationship between executive pay and performance.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses multivariate panel co-integration approaches, i.e. fully modified and dynamic ordinary least square, to explain the co-integrating relationship between executive pay, governance and performance of Indian banks. The analysis is conducted for the period from 2005 to 2018.
Findings
The results of co-integration tests reveal a long-run relationship between executive pay, board governance and bank performance. The long-run estimates produce evidence in favour of the dynamic agency theory, suggesting that the implications of asymmetric information can be mitigated by associating the current executive pay with the bank performance in the previous periods. The finding of this study reveals that improvements in the board quality serve as a monitoring tool to constrain excessive pay and moderate the executives’ pay. Furthermore, the interaction of performance and board governance negatively impacts pay, supporting a substitution approach. It implies that setting optimal pay packages for executives necessitates enhanced and efficient board governance practices.
Practical implications
The study recommends significant policy implications for regulators and the board of directors that executive pay significantly responds to the bank’s performance and good board governance practices in the long run.
Originality/value
This paper provides novel evidence of long-run pay-performance-governance relation using a panel co-integration approach.
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Fredrick Otieno Okuta, Titus Kivaa, Raphael Kieti and James Ouma Okaka
This paper studies the dynamic effects of selected macroeconomic factors on the performance of the housing market in Kenya using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models. This…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper studies the dynamic effects of selected macroeconomic factors on the performance of the housing market in Kenya using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models. This study aims to explain the dynamic effects of the macroeconomic factors on the three indicators of the housing market performance: housing prices growth, sales index and rent index.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used ARDL Models on time series data from 1975 to 2020 of the selected macroeconomic factors sourced from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Kenya and Hass Consult Limited.
Findings
The results indicate that household income, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates and exchange rates have both short-run and long-run effects on housing prices while interest rates, diaspora remittance, construction output and urban population have no significant effects on housing prices both in the short and long run. However, only household income, interest rates, private capital inflows and exchange rates have a significant effect on housing sales both in the short and long run. Furthermore, household income, GDP, interest rates and exchange rates significantly affect housing rental growth in the short and long run. The findings are key for policymaking, especially at the appraisal stages of real estate investments by the developers.
Practical implications
The authors recommend the use of both the traditional hedonic models in conjunction with the dynamic models during real estate project appraisals as this would ensure that developers only invest in the right projects in the right economic situations.
Originality/value
The imbalance between housing demand and supply has prompted an investigation into the role of macroeconomic variables on the housing market in Kenya. Although the effects of the variables have been documented, there is a need to document the short-run and long-term effects of the factors to precisely understand the behavior of the housing market as a way of shielding developers from economic losses.
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Dilpreet Kaur Dhillon and Kuldip Kaur
The growth of the Indian economy is accompanied by the rising trend of energy utilisation and its devastating effect on the environment. It is vital to understand the nexus…
Abstract
Purpose
The growth of the Indian economy is accompanied by the rising trend of energy utilisation and its devastating effect on the environment. It is vital to understand the nexus between energy utilisation, climate and environment degradation and growth to devise a constructive policy framework for achieving the goal of sustainable growth. This study aims to analyse the long- and short-run association and direction of association between energy utilisation, carbon emission and growth of the Indian economy in the presence of structural break.
Design/methodology/approach
The study probes the association and direction of association between variables at both aggregate (total energy utilisation, total carbon emission and gross domestic product [GDP]) and disaggregates level (coal utilisation and coal emission, oil utilisation and oil emission, natural gas utilisation and natural gas emission along with GDP) over the time period of 50 years, i.e. 1971–2020. Autoregressive distributed lag model is used to examine the association between the variables and presence of structural break is confirmed with the help of Zivot–Andrews unit root test. To check the direction of association, vector error correction model Granger causality is performed.
Findings
Aggregate carbon emissions are affected positively by aggregate energy consumption and GDP in both short and long run. Bidirectional causality exists between total emissions and GDP, whereas a unidirectional causality runs from energy consumption towards carbon emission and GDP in the long run. At disaggregate level, consumption of coal energy impacts positively, whereas GDP influences coal emission negatively in the long run only. Furthermore, consumption of oil and GDP influences oil emissions positively in the long run. Lastly, natural gas is the energy source that has the fewest emissions in both short and long run.
Originality/value
There is a rapidly growing body of research on the connections and cause-and-effect relationships between energy use, economic growth and carbon emissions, but it has not conclusively proved how important the presence of structural breaks or changes within the economy is in shaping the outcomes of the aforementioned variables, especially when focusing on the Indian economy. By including the impact of structural break on the association between energy use, carbon emission and growth, where energy use and carbon emission are evaluated at both aggregate and disaggregate level, the current study aims to fill this gap in Indian literature.
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This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10.
Findings
The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices.
Originality/value
This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.
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Charles O. Manasseh, Ifeoma C. Nwakoby, Ogochukwu C. Okanya, Nnenna G. Nwonye, Onuselogu Odidi, Kesuh Jude Thaddeus, Kenechukwu K. Ede and Williams Nzidee
This paper aims to assess the impact of digital financial innovation on financial system development in Common Market for eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). This paper…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to assess the impact of digital financial innovation on financial system development in Common Market for eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). This paper evaluates the dynamic relationship between digital financial innovation measures and financial system development using time series data from COMESA countries for the period 1997–2019.
Design/methodology/approach
A dynamic autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was adopted and the mean group (MG), pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) of the model were estimated to evaluate the short- and long-run impact. In addition, the dynamic generalized method of moments (DGMM) was adopted for a robustness check. The Hausman test results show PMG to be the most consistent and efficient estimator, while the coefficient of lagged dependent variable of different GMM is less than the fixed effect coefficient, and, as such, suggests system GMM is the most suitable estimator. Data for the study were sourced from World Bank Development Indicator (WDI, 2020), World Governance Indicator (WGI, 2020) and World Bank Global Financial Development Database (GFD, 2020).
Findings
The result shows that digital financial innovation significantly impacts financial system development in the long run. As such, the evidence revealed that automated teller machines (ATMs), point of sale (POS), mobile payments (MP) and mobile banking are significant and contribute positively to financial system development in the long run, while mobile money (MM) and Internet banking (INB) are insignificant but exhibit positive and inverse relationship with financial development respectively. Further investigation revealed that institutional quality and a stable macroeconomic environment including their interactive term are significantly imperative in predicting financial system development in the COMESA region.
Practical implications
Researchers recommend a cohesive and conscious policy that would checkmate the divergence in the short run and suggest a common regional innovative financial strategy that could be pursued to incentivize technology transfer needed to promote financial system development in the long run. More so, plausible product and process innovations may be adapted to complement innovative institutions in the different components of the COMESA financial system.
Social implications
Digital financial innovation services if well managed increase the inherent benefits in financial system development.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper presents new background information on digital financial innovation that may stimulate the development of the financial system, particularly in the COMESA region. It also exposes the relevance of digital financial innovation, institutional quality and stable macroeconomic environment as well as their interactive effect on COMESA financial system development.
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Lord Mensah and Felix Kwasi Arku
This paper aims to examine the factors that contribute to the external debt growth in Ghana.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the factors that contribute to the external debt growth in Ghana.
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the error correction model (ECM) to establish the short-run and long-run relationships between the dependent variable (external debt) and the independent variables (debt service, exchange rate, gross domestic product, government expenditure, import and trade openness), using a time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019.
Findings
The results indicate that debt service, GDP, government expenditure and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while import and exchange rates have a negative relationship with external debt in the long run. In the short run, debt service, import, exchange rate and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while GDP has a negative relationship with external debt.
Practical implications
The study found that variables such as government expenditure, debt service and import contribute significantly to the nation’s external debt stock. These findings suggest that policymakers should focus on prioritising and cutting down expenditure in their quest to curtail the debt menace facing the nation. Since existing debt service has the tendency of influencing debt stock, it is recommended that government should reduce borrowing in order avoid debt trap. Home-grown policies to reduce imports must also be encouraged. As these drivers of external debt are tackled head-on, Ghana can be rightly positioned to record lower levels of public debt and subsequently reap the benefits of economic growth.
Originality/value
The study adds to the public debt literature, specifically addressing the idiosyncratic determinants of external debt within the Ghanaian context.
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Eleni Dalla, Stephanos Papadamou, Erotokritos Varelas and Athanasios Argyropoulos
Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government…
Abstract
Purpose
Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government spending and bank lending.
Design/methodology/approach
Fiscal policy is a main factor of macroeconomic stability for the euro area economy. This paper, investigates the impact of government spending on bank lending. For this reason, we present a dynamic theoretical model with a perfectly competitive banking sector, estimated using panel cointegration for the Eurozone countries from 2000Q1 to 2022Q2.
Findings
Our findings highlight that, in the long run, consistent management of government spending can have a beneficial multiplicative impact on bank lending for housing and business reasons. This finding is stronger in magnitude for business versus housing lending. The high level of homogeneity of our results across Eurozone countries has positive implications for a common fiscal policy in the future. Finally, authorities should know that policy adjustments are quicker in housing lending when compared to business lending.
Originality/value
In this paper, we contribute to the existing literature, concentrating on the investigation of any existence of long-run and short-run relationships between government spending and bank lending. Additionally, our analysis allows one to investigate the contribution of each Eurozone member state in the short-run and long-run model’s dynamics, providing significant outcomes for the implementation of economic policy and the need for fiscal discipline in the Eurozone.
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Yasir Abdullah Abbas, Nurwati A. Ahmad-Zaluki and Waqas Mehmood
This paper examines the relationship between the extent and quality of the four dimensions of corporate social responsibility disclosure (CSRD) namely community, environment…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the relationship between the extent and quality of the four dimensions of corporate social responsibility disclosure (CSRD) namely community, environment, workplace and marketplace with the long-run share price performance of Malaysian initial public offering (IPO) companies.
Design/methodology/approach
This study utilised secondary data by the content analysis of the annual reports and Datastream of 115 IPOs listed from 2007 to 2015 in Malaysia. The IPO’s performance was determined by calculating the return measures under the equally weighted and value-weighted schemes of the mean abnormal returns and buy-and-hold abnormal returns covering the three years post-listing using the event-time approach.
Findings
The findings demonstrate that Malaysian IPOs experience substantial overperformance and underperformance when both the IPO performance measures are benchmarked against the matched companies and market. The results indicated that the extent and quality of the community and environment CSRD dimensions are positively and significantly correlated to the IPO’s performance. On the other hand, the extent and quality of the workplace and marketplace CSRD dimensions are negatively and significantly correlated to the IPO performance.
Practical implications
Malaysian regulators could benefit from these findings in their endeavour to carry out a reform process on CSRD to improve its quality. The results of this study are important to investors, regulators, non-government organisations, communities and policymakers. They also enhance the understanding of companies about the importance of disclosing greater CSR information to improve their performance and profitability.
Originality/value
To the researchers' best knowledge, this study provides new insights into the association between CSRD and the performance of Malaysian IPO companies, which is considered important.
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Tariq Ahmad Mir, R. Gopinathan and D.P. Priyadarshi Joshi
This study aims to analyze the long-run dynamic relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth for developing nations.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to analyze the long-run dynamic relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth for developing nations.
Design/methodology/approach
This study develops a comprehensive financial inclusion index based on the UNDP methodology for 53 developing nations. The authors use second-generation unit root tests, cointegration techniques and an advanced dynamic common correlated effects estimator model called cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lags (CS-ARDL) to examine long-run dynamics among variables.
Findings
The tests confirm the presence of slope-heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency. The second-generation panel unit root tests show the chosen variables are stationary at first difference. The bootstrap Westerlund cointegration result shows the variables are cointegrated in the long run. The CS-ARDL estimates conclude that financial inclusion positively enhances gross domestic product per capita in selected developing countries. The robustness check through augmented mean group estimation validates the findings.
Originality/value
The study makes three important contributions: first, it constructs a comprehensive financial inclusion index using 10 variables for a panel of 53 developing nations; second, the potential cross-section dependence and slope heterogeneity of panel data have been accounted for by applying the second-generation unit root tests; third, the study uses the dynamic common correlated effects estimator model (CS-ARDL) to examine long-run dynamics among variables.
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