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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between new product diffusion and consumer internet search patterns using big data and to investigate whether such data can be used in forecasting new product diffusion.

This research proposes a new product diffusion model based on the Bass diffusion model by incorporating consumer internet search behavior. Actual data from search engine queries and new vehicle sales for each vehicle class and region are used to estimate the proposed model. Statistical analyses are used to interpret the estimated results, and the prediction performance of the proposed method is compared with other methods to validate the usefulness of data for internet search engine queries in forecasting new product diffusion.

The estimated coefficients of the proposed model provide a clear interpretation of the relationship between new product diffusion and internet search volume. In 83.62 percent of 218 cases, analyzing the internet search pattern data are significant to explain new product diffusion and that internet search volume helps to predict new product diffusion. Therefore, marketing that seeks to increase internet search volume could positively affect vehicle sales. In addition, the demand forecasting performance of the proposed diffusion model is superior to those of other models for both long-term and short-term predictions.

As search queries have only been available since 2004, comparisons with data from earlier years are not possible. The proposed model can be extended using other big data from additional sources.

This research directly demonstrates the relationship between new product diffusion and consumer internet search pattern and investigates whether internet search queries can be used to forecast new product diffusion by product type and region. Based on the estimated results, increasing internet search volume could positively affect vehicle sales across product types and regions. Because the proposed model had the best prediction power compared with the other considered models for all cases with large margins, it can be successfully utilized in forecasting demand for new products.

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether internet search intensity, as captured by Google’s search volume index (SVI), predicts house price changes in an emerging market like India.

Using data on Google’s SVI for four Indian cities and their corresponding house price index values, the authors examine whether abnormal SVI (growth in search intensity normalized by the national average) impacts abnormal house prices (house price change normalized by the national average).

Like developed markets such as the USA, the authors find that internet search intensity strongly predicts future house price changes. A simple rebalancing strategy of buying a representative house in the city with the greatest change in search intensity and selling a representative house in the city with the smallest change in search intensity each quarter yields an annualized excess (over risk-free government T-bills) return of 4 percent.

Emerging markets have low internet penetration and high information asymmetry with a dominant unorganized real estate market. The results are interesting as it sheds light on the nature and role of the internet as an infomediary even in emerging markets

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of investor sentiment, measured with Google internet search data, on volatility forecasts of the US REIT market.

The author uses the S&P US REIT index and collects search volume data from Google Trends for all US REIT. Two different Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic models are then estimated, namely, the baseline model and the Google augmented model. Using these models, one-step-ahead forecasts are conducted and the forecast accuracies of both models are subsequently compared.

The empirical results reveal that search volume data can be used to predict volatility on the REIT market. Especially in periods of high volatility, Google augmented models outperform the baseline model.

The results imply that Google data can be used on the REIT market as a market indicator. Investors could use Google as an early warning system, especially in periods of high volatility.

This is the first paper to use Google search query data for volatility forecasts of the REIT market.

This paper investigated whether a bank’s popularity and depositors' fear of Google search volume could affect bank deposits and credit.

The authors used two different quarterly data from Google Trends and banking data from 2012 Q1 to 2020 Q1. Based on available data, Google Trends data start from 2012. The authors exclude data after 2020 Q1 because the Covid-19 pandemic arguably increased the volume of Internet users due to shifting behavior to online activities. They merged and cleaned the data by winsorizing at 5 and 95 percentiles to avoid any outlier problems, reaching 74 banks in the sample. They used panel data estimation of quarterly data following Levy-Yeyati et al. (2010) and Trinugroho et al. (2020).

The results show that a higher search volume of a bank’s name leads to higher deposits. A higher search volume of depositor fear reduces deposits and credit. The authors also found that banks with high risk and a high search volume of their name have a significantly lower volume of deposits.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, not many papers in banking and finance have used Google Trends data to gauge related issues regarding depositors' behavior. The authors have filled a gap in the literature by investigating whether the popularity of Google search and depositors' fear could impact deposits and credit. This study also attempted to establish whether Google Trends data could be a reliable source of information to predict depositors' behavior by using a Zscore to measure bank risk.

Recent research has found significant relationships between internet search volume and real estate markets. This paper aims to examine whether Google search volume data can serve as a leading sentiment indicator and are able to predict turning points in the US housing market. One of the main objectives is to find a model based on internet search interest that generates reliable real-time forecasts.

Starting from seven individual real-estate-related Google search volume indices, a multivariate probit model is derived by following a selection procedure. The best model is then tested for its in- and out-of-sample forecasting ability.

The results show that the model predicts the direction of monthly price changes correctly, with over 89 per cent in-sample and just above 88 per cent in one to four-month out-of-sample forecasts. The out-of-sample tests demonstrate that although the Google model is not always accurate in terms of timing, the signals are always correct when it comes to foreseeing an upcoming turning point. Thus, as signals are generated up to six months early, it functions as a satisfactory and timely indicator of future house price changes.

The results suggest that Google data can serve as an early market indicator and that the application of this data set in binary forecasting models can produce useful predictions of changes in upward and downward movements of US house prices, as measured by the Case–Shiller 20-City House Price Index. This implies that real estate forecasters, economists and policymakers should consider incorporating this free and very current data set into their market forecasts or when performing plausibility checks for future investment decisions.

This is the first paper to apply Google search query data as a sentiment indicator in binary forecasting models to predict turning points in the housing market.

People often face constraints such as a lack of time or information in taking decisions, which leads them to use heuristics. In these situations, fast and frugal rules may be useful for making adaptive decisions with fewer resources, even if it leads to suboptimal choices. When applied to financial markets, the recognition heuristic predicts that investors acquire the stocks that they are aware of, thereby inflating the price of the most recognized stocks. This paper aims to study the profitability against the market of the most recognized stocks in Europe.

In this paper, the authors perform a survey and use Google Trends to study the profitability against the market of the most recognized stocks in Europe.

The authors conclude that a recognition heuristic portfolio yields poorer returns than a market portfolio. In contrast, from the data collected on Google Trends, weak evidence was found that strong increases in companies monthly search volumes may lead to abnormal returns in the following month.

The applied investment strategy does not account for transaction costs, which may jeopardize its profitability given the fact that it is necessary to revise the portfolio on a monthly basis. Despite the results obtained, they are useful to understanding the performance of recognition heuristic strategies over a comprehensive time horizon, and it would be interesting to depict its viability during different market conditions. This analysis could provide additional information about a preferable scenario for employing our strategies and, ultimately, enhance the profitability of recognition heuristic strategies.

Through the exhaustive analysis performed here on the recognition heuristic in the European stock market, it is possible to conclude that no evidence was found for the viability of exploring this type of strategy. In fact, the investors would always gain better returns when adopting a passive investment strategy. Therefore, it would be wise to assume that the European market presents at least a degree of efficiency where no investment would yield abnormal returns following the recognition heuristic.

The main objective of this paper is to study the performance of the recognition heuristic in the financial markets and to contribute to the knowledge in this field. Although many authors have already studied this heuristic when applied to financial markets, there is a lack of consensus in the literature.

This paper aims to examine the predictive power of the volume of Economic Uncertainty Related Queries and the Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index on the Bitcoin returns.

Data consists of 118 monthly observations from September 2010 to June 2020. Due to the departure of series from Gaussian distribution and the existence of outliers, the authors use the quantile analysis framework to investigate the persistency of the shocks, the long-run relationships and Granger causality among the variables.

This research provides several important findings. First, the substantial differences between conventional and quantile test results stress the importance of the method selection. Second, throughout the conditional distribution of the series, stochastic properties of the variables, long-run and the causal relationships between the variables might be significantly different. Third, rich information provided by the quantile framework might help the investors design better investment strategies.

This study differs from the previous research in terms of variable selection and econometric methodology. Therefore, it presents a more comprehensive framework that suggests implications for empirical researchers and Bitcoin investors.

Motivated by the lure of cryptocurrencies for retail investors, whose concentrated holdings are particularly exposed to price crash risk, this paper aims to study the relationship between investor attention and crash risk for a range of cryptocurrencies.

This study adopts a quantile regression approach to determine the effect of investor attention on crash risk. Crash risk is measured using the negative coefficient of skewness and down up volatility.

This study finds that the connection is concentrated in the tails of the crash risk distribution. Investor attention has a positive relationship with crash risk when crash risk is low (below-median quantiles) and negative when crash risk is high (above-median). The findings are consistent for different measures of crash risk, for alternate internet searches and for a panel of large cryptocurrencies in addition to Bitcoin. This study also notes seasonality in crash risk, with higher crash risk during the June–August period and lower crash risk in the Halloween period that runs from November to April.

The results provide insights that are not apparent in previous analyses of cryptocurrency price crash risk. The results are particularly important for retail investors, who constitute a large portion of the cryptocurrency market, as they tend to hold concentrated investments and so a price crash of a single asset may have a large bearing on their wealth.

This comprehensive study aims to take a punctilious approach intended to present qualitative and quantitative knowledge on the emerging concept of noise trading and identify the emerging themes associated with noise trading.

This study combines bibliometric and content analysis to review 350 publications from top-ranked journals published from 1986 to 2020.

The bibliometric and content analysis identified three major themes: the impact of noise traders on the functioning of the stock market, traits of noise traders and different proxies used to measure the impact of noise trading.

This study undertakes research papers related to the field of finance, published in peer-reviewed journals and that too in the English language.

This study shall accommodate rational traders, portfolio consultants and other investors to gain deeper insights into the functioning of noise traders. This will further help them to formulate their trading/investment strategies accordingly.

The successful combination of the bibliometric and content analysis revealed major gaps in the literature and provided future research directions.

The study aims to test the existence of a meeting clustering effect in the Spanish Stock Exchange (SSE).

This paper studies the relationship between the clustering of annual general meetings and stock returns in the SSE. A multivariate analysis is carried out in order to analyse the relationship between monthly returns and the clustering of general meetings in the SSE.

The authors show that meeting clustering exists and that some months exhibit significant and positive additional returns related to the holding of ordinary or extraordinary general meetings.

The authors have explored some possible explanations for the meeting clustering effect, such as a potential link with the “Halloween” effect or the presence of higher-than-normal levels of volatility, trading volumes or investor attention. However, none of these can explain the meeting clustering effect that emerges as a new anomaly in the SSE.

The authors have documented significant and positive abnormal returns in some months that coincide with the holding of general meetings. Therefore, the holding of ordinary and/or extraordinary meetings in some months involves the release of relevant information for investors.

This study complements the financial literature because it is focused on the clustering of meetings and its effect on a stock market whose legal order is based on civil law. This fact allows us to shed new light on meeting clustering and its effect on other types of markets.