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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 December 2023

Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Findings

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

Originality/value

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 September 2024

Rihab Bousnina and Foued Badr Gabsi

In this article, we assess the impact of inflation on the current account balance in the case of Tunisia, covering the period 1976–2022.

Abstract

Purpose

In this article, we assess the impact of inflation on the current account balance in the case of Tunisia, covering the period 1976–2022.

Design/methodology/approach

The study utilizes a threshold regression approach proposed by Hansen (2001) in a bid to identify inflation threshold values.

Findings

The results show two inflation threshold values (3.87% and 8.41%), which determine three inflation regimes in the case of Tunisia. In lower inflation regimes, inflation has a positive and statistically significant impact on the current account balance. However, in higher inflation regimes, where inflation rates exceed 3.87%, there is a negative and statistically significant correlation with the current account balance, resulting in a deficit.

Originality/value

The research suggests the need for a new policy approach that considers these threshold levels to address high inflation rates, which currently stand at approximately 11%, and aims to restore them to the targeted rate of 4%. This necessitates coordinated monetary and fiscal measures.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 January 2024

Christina Anderl and Guglielmo Maria Caporale

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

Abstract

Purpose

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.

Findings

Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.

Originality/value

It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Edmond Berisha, Rangan Gupta and Orkideh Gharehgozli

The primary focus of this study is to examine the distributional consequences of the widespread increase in prices. The fundamental question the study aims to address is whether…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary focus of this study is to examine the distributional consequences of the widespread increase in prices. The fundamental question the study aims to address is whether the dynamics of income distribution due to higher inflation differ in the short term compared to the long run.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors estimated a panel-data model (fixed effects) using inequality and inflation data available at a high frequency, i.e. on a quarterly basis for over 30 years, and found evidence that inflation causes rapid swings in income distribution.

Findings

The authors’ contribution to the literature lies in providing evidence that inflation rapidly causes swings in income distribution, even after controlling for the state of the economy. The authors also demonstrate that the magnitude and direction of the effect of inflation on income inequality depend on whether the initial inflation rate is below or above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors are the first to emphasize that the targets set by central banks can drive the strength and direction of the relationship between inflation and income inequality.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 September 2024

Eugene Msizi Buthelezi

The purpose of this study is to investigate the interplay between fiscal dominance and monetary policy in South Africa from 1960 to 2023.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the interplay between fiscal dominance and monetary policy in South Africa from 1960 to 2023.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) medel to analyze the relationship between fiscal dominance and monetary policy. Short-term and long-term shocks of government borrowing and deficits are examined to understand their impact on inflation dynamics.

Findings

Fiscal dominance has a significant effect both in the short and long run. There is evidence that government debt and deficits increase inflation, overriding the effects of monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability. On the other hand, the study reveals that money supply shocks have a greater effect in reducing fiscal dominance compared to interest rate shocks. The variance movement on inflation is significantly explained by government debt and deficits. This emphasizes the persistence of inflationary pressures associated with fiscal dominance, highlighting the importance of effective policy interventions to mitigate inflationary risks.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature by providing insights into the dynamics of fiscal dominance in South Africa. Moreover, this study extends the theoretical framework of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) and the government budget constraint. This study contributes valuable insights into the dynamics of fiscal dominance in South Africa and offers guidance for policymakers in formulating strategies to safeguard economic stability.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 October 2024

Manuel Stagars and Ioannis Akkizidis

Marketplace lending has substantially changed since the first peer-to-peer lending platforms emerged in 2006. The industry is now an alternative to bank lending, predicted to…

Abstract

Marketplace lending has substantially changed since the first peer-to-peer lending platforms emerged in 2006. The industry is now an alternative to bank lending, predicted to total $70 billion for consumer and business loans worldwide by 2030. Marketplace lending is often deemed less safe than bank loans, mainly due to these portfolios' high degree of hidden information. These include needing more information on borrowers and potential correlations between them, which might lead to higher risk than is apparent at first glance. Deterministic processes cannot capture tail risk appropriately, so platforms and lenders should employ stochastic processes. This chapter introduces a Monte Carlo simulation and machine learning (ML) process to evaluate and monitor portfolios. For marketplace lending to become a viable and sustainable alternative to bank lending platforms, they must better evaluate, monitor, and manage tail risk in marketplace loans and develop tools to monitor and manage financial risk losses.

Article
Publication date: 8 January 2024

Faris Alshubiri, Samia Fekir and Billal Chikhi

The present study aimed to examine the effect of received remittance inflows on the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate…

Abstract

Purpose

The present study aimed to examine the effect of received remittance inflows on the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate in 36 developed and developing countries from 2004 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The panel data conducted a comparative analysis and used panel least squares, regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors of fixed effect, random effect, feasible generalised least squares and maximum likelihood robust least squares to overcome the heterogeneity issue. Furthermore, the two-step difference generalised method of moments to overcome the endogeneity issue. Diagnostic tests were used to increase robustness.

Findings

In the studied countries, there was a statistically significant negative relationship between received remittance inflows and the price-level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate. This relationship explains why remittance flows depreciate the real exchange rate. The study’s results also indicated that attracting investments can improve the quality of institutions despite high tax rates, leading to low tax revenue.

Originality/value

The current study findings enrich the understanding of policies of how governments should minimise tariff rates on capital imports and introduce export-oriented incentive programmes. The study also revealed that Dutch disease can occur due to differences in the demand structure and manufacturing development policy.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2024

Karlo Marques Junior

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each…

37

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.

Findings

This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.

Originality/value

This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2023

Sadia Nazar, Abdul Raheman and Muhammad Anwar ul Haq

This study aims to estimate the amount of money laundering (ML) with multiple proxy approaches and measure the effects of ML on various indicators of the economic and financial…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to estimate the amount of money laundering (ML) with multiple proxy approaches and measure the effects of ML on various indicators of the economic and financial sectors. Theoretical justifications are recruited from the parasite theory of organised crime.

Design/methodology/approach

A quantitative research methodology was used on a balanced panel data set to test the study’s hypothesis through generalised method of moment (GMM). The study sample consisted of 77 countries, and the data was collected for 15 years (2005–2019).

Findings

A study has found that 1.23% of global gross domestic product is laundered yearly, and there is no noticeable decline in ML activities. Further study has also found that ML has devastating effects on countries, government revenue, foreign investment, economic development, political and peace conditions, bank liquidity, interest rate volatility and exchange rate volatility. The study has not witnessed the negative consequence of ML on countries’ inflation rates.

Practical implications

Estimates of the study guide policymakers about the volume of resources fleeing and helps them to decide the level of response needed. Further findings help them prioritise the response system according to the area most affected.

Originality/value

This study is an original contribution by the authors and has studied the effects of ML by computing the amount of ML by four different proxies.

Details

Journal of Money Laundering Control, vol. 27 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1368-5201

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 7 October 2024

Debolina Saha and Razdan Alam

This study attempts to evaluate the performance of women-dominated self-help groups (SHGs) in India and their contribution to financial inclusion. The two dimensions – spread and…

Abstract

This study attempts to evaluate the performance of women-dominated self-help groups (SHGs) in India and their contribution to financial inclusion. The two dimensions – spread and status of SHGs are considered to assess their performance level, where each of the dimensions has a few number of indicators. The study also constructs a composite financial inclusion index (FII) to calculate the FII values, which appear from the performance of SHGs, during the study period 2007–2021, in India. Finally, the study establishes a relationship between financial inclusion and human development since women’s involvement in financial inclusion is also conducive to human development. The study comes to the conclusion that despite success in achieving financial inclusion through promoting SHGs, the government should keep a focus on the ever-increasing amount of non-performing assets (NPA) of the banks since a part of that is related to the functioning of SHGs. However, the promotion of SHGs is fundamental for women empowerment, human development, and thereby, to ensure sustainable development.

Details

Informal Economy and Sustainable Development Goals: Ideas, Interventions and Challenges
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-981-9

Keywords

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