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Article
Publication date: 1 August 1999

Osamah Al‐Khazali

Vector‐autoregression (VAR), integration, and cointegration models are used to investigate the causal relations, dynamic interaction, and a common trend between interest rates and…

4086

Abstract

Vector‐autoregression (VAR), integration, and cointegration models are used to investigate the causal relations, dynamic interaction, and a common trend between interest rates and inflation in nine countries in the Pacific‐Basin. This paper finds that for all countries, short‐ and long‐term interest rates and the spread between the long‐term interest rates and inflation are non‐stationary I (1) processes. The nominal interest rates and inflation are not co‐integrated. In addition to this study’s inability to find a unidirectional causality between inflation and interest rates, when the VAR model is used, it also fails to find a consistent positive response either of inflation to shocks in interest rates or of interest rates to shocks in inflation in most of the countries studied. The VAR model results are consistent with the cointegration tests’ results, that is, nominal interest rates are poor predictors for future inflation in the Pacific‐Basin countries.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 37 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 November 2011

Girijasankar Mallik and Ramprasad Bhar

The purpose of this paper is to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation‐targeting countries.

2888

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation‐targeting countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The approach takes the form of a time‐varying parameter model with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specification, used to derive impulse uncertainty and structural uncertainty.

Findings

This study attempts to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation‐targeting countries, i.e. Canada, Finland, Spain, Sweden, and the UK. Decomposing inflation uncertainty into two components – impulse and structural, a positive association was found between the expected inflation and interest rates. Structural uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on interest rates for some countries. It has also been found that the long‐run effects of inflation on interest rates are less than unity for the post‐inflation targeting period, which implies that in some respect the Central Bank has been successful in targeting inflation. This has allowed the Central Bank to employ a less restrictive monetary policy in an environment of a credible inflation‐targeting strategy.

Research limitations/implications

Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) can be used instead of GARCH modelling.

Originality/value

This is the first study that has tried to establish the link between different types of inflation uncertainty and interest rates for the inflation‐targeting countries to see the effect of inflation targeting.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 38 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 1980

Patrick Minford

A rational expectations model estimated for the UK is used to simulate macroeconomic policy under fixed and floating exchange rates. Under fixed rates inflation and interest rates…

Abstract

A rational expectations model estimated for the UK is used to simulate macroeconomic policy under fixed and floating exchange rates. Under fixed rates inflation and interest rates are effectively set internationally; monetary policy only affects the reserves even in the short run and cyclical variations in fiscal policy are able to influence output in a fairly standard manner. Under floating rates, fiscal and monetary policy have rapid impacts on inflation and interest rates producing unfamiliar financial effects on expenditure which eliminate or reserve the conventional output multipliers. Stabilisation policy is still feasible but has to take account of these effects.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Article
Publication date: 29 January 2020

Siew-Peng Lee, Mansor Isa and Noor Azryani Auzairy

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of the real interest rates, inflation and risk premium on the time deposit rates of banks in the dual banking system in…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of the real interest rates, inflation and risk premium on the time deposit rates of banks in the dual banking system in Malaysia.

Design/methodology/approach

The data consists of 1-, 6- and 12-month average time deposit rates of conventional and Islamic banks over the period of January 2000 to June 2017. The cointegration methodologies are used to explore links between the time deposit rates, real rates, inflation and risk premium. The causality tests to test causality linkages between pairs of variables are also applied. The generalised forecast error variance decomposition based on the error correction model is conducted to analyse the impact of variables variation on the deposit rates.

Findings

The results show the presence of two cointegration vectors in the deposit rates, real rates, inflation and risk premium, for both conventional and Islamic bank rates. Causality tests reveal that deposit rates are caused by inflation and risk premium in a one-way causality. The results of variance decomposition highlight the importance of inflation and risk premium in explaining the variations in the bank deposit rates. For the conventional bank, inflation shocks play the most important role in explaining the movements of the deposit rates. In Islamic banks, the major determinant’s largest influence is the risk premium. Between the two bank rates, Islamic bank rates receive more influence from the explanatory variables in the long-run compared to conventional bank rates. The real rates have no noticeable effect on the variance of time deposit rates for both banks.

Originality/value

This study presents new evidence on the relationship between time deposit rates and the three explanatory variables, which are the real interest rates, inflation and risk premium, for both conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia. The dual banking system allows exploring the similarities and differences between conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia in terms of the linkages between the variables.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. 11 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 June 2019

Siew Peng Lee and Mansor Isa

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which conventional and Islamic bank fixed deposit rates can protect depositors against inflation in the Malaysia context.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which conventional and Islamic bank fixed deposit rates can protect depositors against inflation in the Malaysia context.

Design/methodology/approach

Nominal interest rates are represented by commercial bank fixed deposit and investment bank fixed deposit rates. The authors use monthly data over the period 2000–2016. The authors apply the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing methodology to test the existence of long-run relationship between nominal rates and inflation, and the error-correction model to test for the short-run dynamics.

Findings

The results show that the nominal interest rate and inflation are cointegrated for all the data series. The evidence indicates that all the fixed deposit rates, for both conventional and Islamic banks are effective inflation hedges in the long-run thereby supporting the Fisher hypothesis. There is no difference in the inflation hedging ability between conventional bank rates and Islamic bank rates. However, the authors find no evidence of the short-run relationship between interest rates and inflation for either bank.

Practical implications

Bank regulators should be concerned on the similarities in behaviour towards inflation between conventional and Islamic rates, given that the deposit rates for both banks are supposedly set based on different premises. Bank customers, they should deposit their money for the long horizon in order to protect themselves against inflation. Depositors worrying about inflation should be indifferent between conventional or Islamic as both banks provide similar inflation hedging characteristics.

Originality/value

The novelty of this study is in using the bank fixed deposit rates to study the Fisher effect in an emerging market and in comparing the conventional and Islamic bank rates in terms of their inflation hedging ability.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 35 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 16 October 2019

Tarek Eldomiaty, Yasmeen Saeed, Rasha Hammam and Salma AboulSoud

This paper aims to examine the effect of both inflation rate and interest rate on stock prices using quarterly data on non-financial firms listed in DJIA30 and NASDAQ100 for the…

20241

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the effect of both inflation rate and interest rate on stock prices using quarterly data on non-financial firms listed in DJIA30 and NASDAQ100 for the period 1999-2016. The stock duration model is used to measure the sensitivity in variations in inflation rates and interest rates on stock prices.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use standard statistical tools that include Johansen cointegration test, linearity, normality tests, cointegration regression, Granger causality and vector error correction model.

Findings

The results of panel Johansen cointegration analysis show that cointegration exists between the stock prices, the changes in stock prices due to inflation rates and the changes in stock prices due to real interest rates. The results of cointegration regression show that inflation rates are negatively associated with stock prices, the real interest rates and stock prices are positively associated, changes in real interest rates and inflation rates Granger cause significant changes in stock prices, significant speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium between observed stock prices and real interest rates and significant speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium between changes in stock prices due to real interest rates and changes in inflation rates.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the empirical literature in three ways. The paper examines the effects of inflation and interest rates on stock prices differently from other related studies by separating inflation from real interest rates. The paper examines the causality between stock prices, interest and inflation rates. This paper offers significant updated validity to extended literature that a negative association exists between stock prices and inflation rates. This validity can be considered as an existence a theory of stock prices, inflation rates and interest rates.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 25 no. 49
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 1988

Anthony Clunies Ross

The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the…

274

Abstract

The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the economy is dominated by primary exports, by the importance of the domestic bond market and bank credit, by the extent of existing restriction in foreign exchange and financial markets, by the presence or absence of persistent high inflation, and by the existence or non‐existence of an active international market in the country's currency. Eighteen observations and maxims on stabilisation policy are tentatively drawn (pp. 64–8) from the material reviewed, and the maxims are partly summarised (pp. 69–71) in a schematic assignment, with variations, of targets to instruments.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 June 2021

Mustafa Kırca and Şerif Canbay

This study aims to investigate whether changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate and housing supply have permanent effects on housing inflation in Turkey.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate whether changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate and housing supply have permanent effects on housing inflation in Turkey.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, data from 2010M01 to 2020M06 and changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate, housing supply and housing inflation were used. Relationships between variables are analyzed first by the Granger causality tests and then the conditional frequency domain causality tests. The conditional frequency domain causality test specifically reveals the permanent causality between variables, whether there is a permanent effect.

Findings

According to the Granger causality test results, there are causality relationships from changes in the consumer interest rate and exchange rate to housing inflation. However, there is no causality relationship between housing supply and housing inflation. According to the conditional frequency domain causality test results, there is causality for the permanent and mid-term from changes in the consumer interest rate to housing inflation and causality for the mid-term and temporary from changes in the exchange rate to housing inflation. Additionally, it was found that there are causality relationships between changes in the consumer interest rate and changes in the exchange rate.

Research limitations/implications

The first limit of the study is that only 2010M01-2020M06 months can be considered. Because the date that variables started common is 2010M01. Besides, there is a limit in the study in variables used. Many variables, both micro and macro, can be added to affect housing inflation.

Originality/value

Housing inflation is a remarkable issue in Turkey. There is an increase in the number of studies on the subject in recent years. For this reason, the study is trying to contribute by approaching the subject from a different angle. The most important contribution of the study is that it has not been investigated whether the determinants of housing inflation have permanent or temporary effects, which were not done in previous studies. In addition, the method used reveals how many months the effects of changes in exchange rates, consumer interest rates and housing supply on housing inflation last. Based on the findings obtained from the methods, important economic and political implications have been put forward in depth.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 December 2023

Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Findings

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

Originality/value

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 December 2019

Serdar Ongan and Ismet Gocer

This paper aims to investigate the presence of the Fisher effect for the USA from a new methodological perspective differing it from all previous studies using the common linear…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the presence of the Fisher effect for the USA from a new methodological perspective differing it from all previous studies using the common linear representation of the Fisher equation.

Design/methodology/approach

The nonlinear ARDL model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied for the 10-year US Government bond rates over the period of 1985M1-2017M10.

Findings

The empirical findings indicate that the US Federal Reserve (FED) is a more predominant arbiter in the determination of interest rates during periods of declining inflation rates than periods of rising inflation rates. This finding may allow the FED to apply more proactive and prudent monetary policy. Additionally, this study newly describes and introduces a different version of the partial Fisher effect and extends the Fisher equation to some degree in terms of the partial Fisher effect.

Originality/value

To the best the authors’ knowledge, this method is applied for the first time in testing the Fisher effect for the USA.

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