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Book part
Publication date: 23 December 2005

Yao-Chun Tsao and Wen-Kuei Chen

The ‘managed stock’ market in Taiwan is neglected by the authorities and general investors. In this paper, we explore the link between financial trait and stock price…

Abstract

The ‘managed stock’ market in Taiwan is neglected by the authorities and general investors. In this paper, we explore the link between financial trait and stock price changes in this special market.

Overall, we analyze and discuss managerial implications for institutional investors, general investors and the authorities as well.

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Asia Pacific Financial Markets in Comparative Perspective: Issues and Implications for the 21st Century
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-258-0

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Abstract

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Monetary Policy, Islamic Finance, and Islamic Corporate Governance: An International Overview
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-786-9

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Book part
Publication date: 27 November 2017

Thaddeus Sim and Ronald H. Wright

Historical stock prices have long been used to evaluate a stock’s future returns as well as the risks associated with those returns. Similarly, historical dividends have…

Abstract

Historical stock prices have long been used to evaluate a stock’s future returns as well as the risks associated with those returns. Similarly, historical dividends have been used to evaluate the intrinsic value of a stock using, among other methods, a dividend discount model. In this chapter, we propose an alternate use of the dividend discount model to enable an investor to assess the risks associated with a particular stock based on its dividend history. In traditional applications of the dividend discount model for stock valuation, the value of a stock is the net present value of its future cash dividends. We propose an alternative approach in which we calculate the internal rate of return for a stream of future cash dividends assuming the current stock price. We use a bootstrapping approach to generate a stream of future cash dividends, and use a Monte Carlo simulation approach to run multiple trials of the model. The probability distribution of the internal rates of return obtained from the simulation model provides an investor with an expected percentage return and the standard deviation of the return for the stock. This allows an investor to not only compare the expected internal rates of return for a group of stocks but to also evaluate the associated risks. We illustrate this internal rate of return approach using stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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Growing Presence of Real Options in Global Financial Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-838-3

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Article
Publication date: 20 July 2021

Qingxia Wang, Robert Faff and Min Zhu

More studies have investigated the relation between option measures and stock returns during scheduled corporate events. This study adds to the literature and investigates…

Abstract

Purpose

More studies have investigated the relation between option measures and stock returns during scheduled corporate events. This study adds to the literature and investigates the informational role of options concerning stock returns following unscheduled corporate news events. The authors focus on individual analysts' recommendation changes rather than consensus revisions, as the recommendation consensus might discard a large amount of potentially valuable information in the aggregation process.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the econometric model, the authors follow Bakshi et al. (2003) to construct the model-free option implied measures. The authors further decompose the implied option variance into upside and downside components. In such a way, the different informational roles of call and put options can be distinguished. A variety of regression analyses are conducted to examine the predictive power of option implied measures, and the ordered probit model is used to test the tipping hypothesis of analyst recommendations.

Findings

This study’s results show that the option market impounds the “valuable” firm-specific news; thus, the pre-event option market is strongly related to stock returns around recommendations even though recommendation changes are largely “unscheduled”. At the same time, these results suggest that upside (good) and downside (bad) implied volatilities contain distinctive information on subsequent stock returns.

Originality/value

This study provides new evidence that an increase in upside (downside) volatility around analyst recommendation changes would increase the probability that analysts upgrade (downgrade) the stock. The findings provide implications for investors and risk managers in making investment decisions.

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International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

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Article
Publication date: 2 August 2021

Jianmai Liu

As an important part of the disclosure of listed companies' annual reports, MD&A will disclose some "bad news" about the company. The purpose of this paper is to study…

Abstract

Purpose

As an important part of the disclosure of listed companies' annual reports, MD&A will disclose some "bad news" about the company. The purpose of this paper is to study whether such "bad news" can reduce information asymmetry and alleviate the risk of stock price crash remains to be seen.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the sample of A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2016, the authors examine whether the negative information in MD&A could reduce stock price crash risk.

Findings

It is found that the negative information in MD&A does not reduce future crash, which indicates that the negative information in MD&A does not alleviate the information asymmetry. Further, it is also found this is due to the low readability of negative information which leads to the negative information not successfully released into the market timely. Only highly readable negative information can alleviate information asymmetry and suppress crash risk. In addition, the authors also find in the companies with more investor surveys negative tone is negatively correlated with crash risk, which means that investor surveys could help investors interpret the negative information in MD&A and alleviate stock price crash risk.

Practical implications

The practical significance of this article: this paper suggests that investors should carefully identify the quality of negative information in MD&A and pay attention to other quality characteristics besides credibility. This paper suggests that the regulator should pay attention not only to whether to disclose and the amount of disclosure but also to the quality of information disclosure, such as readability, so as to restrict management's strategic behavior in information disclosure.

Originality/value

First, different from previous studies on the impact of information disclosure on crash risk, this paper directly explores the impact of information in MD&A on stock price crash risk from the perspective of negative information disclosure that management most want to hide. It supplements the literature on the impact of information disclosure on stock price crash risk. Second, this paper studies the interaction between information tone and readability and its impact on the risk of stock price crash. Some studies believe that the credibility of negative news is higher and investors' reaction may be stronger. However, this paper finds that the disclosure of negative information may not be absorbed by the market because of the low readability. Third, this paper finds that investor surveys can help information users to interpret negative information and alleviate the risk of stock price crash, which shows that information disclosure of different channels will complement each other and improve information efficiency. Therefore, it advocates different information disclosure channels which has important practical significance for improving market pricing efficiency and reducing investment decision-making risk.

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Nankai Business Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-8749

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Article
Publication date: 26 July 2021

Shagufta Parveen, Zoya Wajid Satti, Qazi Abdul Subhan, Nishat Riaz, Samreen Fahim Baber and Taqadus Bashir

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on investors' sentiments, behavioral biases and investment decisions in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on investors' sentiments, behavioral biases and investment decisions in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors have assessed investors' behaviors and sentiments and the stock market overreaction during COVID-19 using a questionnaire and collected data from 401 investors trading in the PSX.

Findings

Results of structural equation modeling revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic affected investors' behaviors, investment decisions and trade volume. It created feelings of fear and uncertainty among market participants. Evidence suggests that behavioral heuristics and biases, including representative heuristic, anchoring heuristic, overconfidence bias and disposition effect, negatively influenced investors' decisions at the PSX.

Research limitations/implications

This study will contribute to behavioral finance literature in the context of developing countries as it has revealed the impact of COVID-19 on the emerging stock market, and its results are generalizable to other emerging stock markets.

Practical implications

The findings of this study will help academicians, researchers and policymakers of developing countries. Academicians can formulate new behavioral models that can depict the solutions of dealing with an uncertain situation like COVID-19. Policymakers like the Securities Exchange Commission and the PSX can formulate crisis management strategies based on behavioral finance concepts to cope with situations like COVID-19 in the future and help lessen investors' losses in the stock markets. The role of the Securities Exchange Commission is crucial as it regulates the financial markets. It can arrange workshops to educate investors to manage their decisions during crisis time and focus on the best use of irrational and rational decision-making at the same time using Lo (2004) adaptive market hypothesis.

Originality/value

The novelty of the paper is that the authors have introduced overconfidence and disposition effect as mediators that create a connection between representative and anchoring heuristics and investment decisions using primary data collected from investors (institutional and retail) to demonstrate the presence of psychological biases during COVID-19, and it has been done for the first time according to authors' knowledge. It is a contribution and addition to the behavioral finance literature in the context of developing countries' stock markets and their efficiency.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 3 August 2021

Eduardo Saucedo and Jorge Gonzalez

Fama–French model (FFM) has been successful in helping to predict the financial markets, but investors have been interested in creating more sophisticated models to better…

Abstract

Purpose

Fama–French model (FFM) has been successful in helping to predict the financial markets, but investors have been interested in creating more sophisticated models to better predict the performance of the stock market. The objective of the extended version is to create a more robust econometric model to better predict the performance of the Mexican Stock Market.

Design/methodology/approach

The study divides the Mexican Stock Market into six different portfolios. The criteria to build those portfolios are the same one used in Fama–French (1992). The study comprises 78 stocks listed in the Mexican Stock Market that are analyzed monthly during 1997–2018. The study analyzes the period before and after the 2008–2009 financial crisis to identify whether there are important changes. The estimation applies the traditional and an extended version of the FFM that include macroeconomic variables such as country risk, economic activity, inflation rate, and exchange rate and some financial variables recommended in the literature.

Findings

Results indicate that classic FFM variables are statistically significant in most cases, but relevant macroeconomic variables such as the interest rate, exchange rate and country risk stand out for being weakly relevant in most of the portfolios. However, it is noticed that some of these macroeconomic variables became relevant for different portfolios only after the 2008–2009 crisis, especially in portfolios which include small market capitalization firms.

Research limitations/implications

The study includes the stocks listed in the Mexican Stock Market. One limitation is the small number of stocks available, which reduces the possibility of creating well diversified portfolios. This study includes 78 stocks. The stocks removed from the sample are from firms that were not listed during six consecutive months or whose market capitalization did not change in the same period. Outlier data were removed from the sample to capture in better way the general performance of the stock market.

Practical implications

The objective of the extended version is to create a more robust econometric model than the traditional model. It is expected that such estimations can be helpful to investors to make better decisions when they try to predict performance in the stock market.

Social implications

An extended version of the FFM can be helpful to investors to make better decisions when they try to predict performance in the stock market.

Originality/value

To the best of our knowledge there are no more studies in the literature of the Mexican financial market that apply the same methodology.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

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Article
Publication date: 6 August 2021

Huy Viet Hoang, Cuong Nguyen and Khanh Hoang

This study compares the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns in the first two waves of infection across selected markets, given built-in corporate immunity…

Abstract

Purpose

This study compares the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns in the first two waves of infection across selected markets, given built-in corporate immunity before the global outbreak.

Design/methodology/approach

The data are collected from listed firms in five markets that have experienced the second wave of COVID-19 contagion, namely the United States (US), Australia, China, Hong Kong and South Korea. The period of investigation in this study ranges from January 24 to August 28, 2020 to cover the first two COVID-19 waves in selected markets. The study estimates the research model by employing the ordinary least square method with fixed effects to control for the heterogeneity that may confound the empirical outcomes.

Findings

The analysis reveals that firms with larger size and more cash reserves before the COVID-19 outbreak have better stock performance under the first wave; however, these advantages impede stock resilience during the second wave. Corporate governance practices significantly influence stock returns only in the first wave as their effects fade when the second wave emerges. The results also suggest that in economies with greater power distance, although stock price depreciation was milder in the first wave, it is more intense when new cases again surge after the first wave was contained.

Practical implications

This paper provides practical implications for corporate managers, policymakers and governments concerning crisis management strategies for COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Originality/value

This study is the first to evaluate built-in corporate immunity before the COVID-19 shock under successive contagious waves. Besides, this study accentuates the importance of cultural understanding in weathering the ongoing pandemic across different markets.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

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Article
Publication date: 20 July 2021

Taicir Mezghani, Fatma Ben Hamadou and Mouna Boujelbène Abbes

The aim of this study was to investigate the dynamic network connectedness between stock markets and commodity futures and its implications on hedging strategies…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study was to investigate the dynamic network connectedness between stock markets and commodity futures and its implications on hedging strategies. Specifically, the authors studied the impact of the 2014 oil price drop and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on risk spillovers and portfolio allocation among stock markets (United States (SP500), China (SSEC), Japan (Nikkei 225), France (CAC40) and Germany (DAX)) and commodities (oil and gold).

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the authors used the Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK–GARCH) model to estimate shock transmission among the five financial markets and the two commodities. The authors rely on Diebold and Yılmaz (2014, 2015) methodology to construct network-associated measures.

Findings

Relying on the BEKK–GARCH, the authors found that the recent health crisis of COVID-19 intensified the volatility spillovers among stock markets and commodities. Using the dynamic network connectedness, the authors showed that at the 2014 oil price drop and the COVID-19 pandemic shock, the Nikkei225 moderated the transmission of volatility to the majority of markets. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the commodity markets are a net receiver of volatility shocks from stock markets. In addition, the SP500 stock market dominates the network connectedness dynamic during the COVID-19 pandemic, while DAX index is the weakest risk transmitter. Regarding the portfolio allocation and hedging strategies, the study showed that the oil market is the most vulnerable and risky as it was heavily affected by the two crises. The results show that gold is a hedging tool during turmoil periods.

Originality/value

This study contributes to knowledge in this area by improving our understanding of the influence of fluctuations in oil prices on the dynamics of the volatility connection between stock markets and commodities during the COVID-19 pandemic shock. The study’s findings provide more implications regarding portfolio management and hedging strategies that could help investors optimize their portfolios.

Details

Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-4323

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Article
Publication date: 27 July 2021

Mutaju Isaack Marobhe

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic on stock returns of listed cargo shipping companies.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic on stock returns of listed cargo shipping companies.

Design/methodology/approach

The author employs the events study methodology to examine this phenomenon. A sample of 49 listed cargo shipping companies in the container, dry bulk and tanker sub-sectors from Asia, North America, and Europe was selected and their daily closing stock prices from 1st January 2020 to 31st December 2020 were utilized.

Findings

The results reveal that there was an overall negative overreaction to the announcement by World Health Organization (WHO) that declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The approvals of USD 857 billion stimulus package by the European Union (EU) and Pfizer vaccine by Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in USA received slight positive reactions. The Greek, Singaporean and Taiwanese shipping stocks were the least affected stocks as their respective shipping industries remained resilient during 2020.

Research limitations/implications

This study provides evidence to confirm the fact that COVID-19 has affected stock markets; however the impact is un parallel among cargo shipping stocks of different countries.

Originality/value

The majority of studies have conducted country level analyses of the COVID-19 and stock market performance phenomenon. However, there have been sectoral disparities in terms of their susceptibility to economic shocks from COVID-19. This study's focal point is on the cargo shipping sector which synonymous with other sectors has not been immune to the current pandemic. The study also extends the timeline of events to incorporate those from June to December 2020.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

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